Some Surprise Vermont Snows, With More On The Way

 

Snow fell all day Monday in St. Albans, Vermont but
didn't accumulate because of a high March sun angle,
and temperatures just above freezing. However.....

UPDATE

Noon Tuesday

Snowfall reports came in since I wrote this early this morning.  Snow was definitely more widespread and heavier than many expected. 

I added to this post the map the National Weather Service in South Burlington released showing snowfall totals. You can see it further down in this.

Several places along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains had around six inches of snow. 

Even areas a little bit away from the mountains had three or four inches. 

The biggest winner was Underhill, with 7.6 inches. Areas right near Lake Champlain, the Connecticut Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom missed out. The NWS office in South Burlington only had 0.6 inches, for instance. 

Melt the snow down and you get a tenth of an inch or less of rain equivalent away from the mountains and western slopes. Areas near the Green Mountain had a respectable third to more than a half inch oc rain equivalent. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A few areas of Vermont awoke to some surprising amounts of snow this  morning. 

Up here in St. Albans, I measured 3.5 inches of new snow. This is on cold surfaces.  The lawn has somewhat less snow due to warm ground melting this from beneath. 

We saw a real March phenomenon, too, as a high sun angle and just a general trend toward spring warming influenced how much snow actually accumulated.

It snowed all day Monday here in St. Albans, and along and west of the Green Mountains.  In relatively low elevations like where I live, there was no accumulation during the day despite hours of steady snowfall. It was basically white rain coming down. 

Even though it was overcast, some heat from the sun penetrated the clouds. That also helped temperatures hold just above freezing. Had it been January with the same snowfall, I

However, at night, the snow kept going and was able to
accumulate, leaving behind 3.5 inches in St. Albans,
at least in the eastern part of town away from Lake Champlain.

Toward dusk, the snow started to accumulate, and really started to pile up after dark. That lead to our more than three inches of snow.  I'm sure a few places in the northern and central Green Mountains had six inches or more.  

I notice the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield went from 62 inches Sunday to 68 inches by 5 p.m. Monday. And it surely snowed some more overnight way up there on Vermont's rooftop. 

I'm sure, though, that if this snow had come in January, I'd be shoveling at least six inches of new snow out of my St. Albans driveway.    

MUCH MORE SNOW COMING?

In the lower elevations, that March regime will melt at least some of the snow today in areas where it did accumulate, despite temperatures that will probably hold in the 30s. Today might be the first cooler than average day this month. The rest of the week looks to be mostly on the chilly side for this time of year too.

The last of the snow showers from overnight should depart, but more is coming. 

Map of snowfall from Monday and last night in Vermont
Widespread three to six inches across northern parts
of the state, which was more than forecast. 

The next system from the west will blow in tonight and tomorrow, spreading snow, and perhaps some cold raindrops mixed in at lower elevations Wednesday. 

This is another case of the mountains getting snow showered to death. It'll be another case of maybe an inch or two of new snow in most valleys, with some low lands getting nothing. 

But this little storm Wednesday and Wednesday night could easily dump another six inches of snow on Vermont's mountain summits and some ski areas.

Thursday will be by far the coldest day since February 29, with highs staying below freezing all day, except maybe in the warmest valleys of southern Vermont. 

This cold snap could set us up for a pretty good snowstorm toward Saturday.  

Maybe. Perhaps. Maybe not. Hard to tell.

Here's why:

Some computer models are generating a pretty good nor'easter whose path would put Vermont in the sweet spot for quite a lot of snow on Saturday. 

We'd get six or more inches of wet snow out of that scenario.

However, those computer models are having a feisty fight among themselves as to what's really going to happen. While some of those models give us a snowstorm, others say this will be one big nothing burger.

That  camp says it will be a weak storm that goes by too far to the east of Vermont to give us any real trouble. Others in this computer model fight club say it will be a fairly substantial storm, but it would also be too far east of Vermont to worry that much about. Then there's a small group that says it will be mostly a cold rain, not snow. A few models even say "Storm? What storm?"

For now, we'll just let those meteorological computer battles rage until they come up with some kind of truce or peace agreement in a couple of days.