Spring Leaf Out Way Too Early In Much Of Nation, Sets Stage For Frost Destruction Later

National Phenology Map as of Saturday. Dark red
shows areas that leaves are starting to appear on some
shrubs, nearly three weeks ahead of scheduled. 

 Spring is arriving way too early in most of the United States, forced that way by unseasonable, record breaking high temperatures. 

The National Phenology Network tracks the first early leaf out and blooming of plants and shrubs that typical start to turn green early. 

Based on their index, spring is more than  two weeks early in large parts of the Midwest and Middle Atlantic States. 

Here are the rules of the game, according to the National Phenology Network:

"The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring. This index is associated with the first leafing of early spring shrubs and other plants

The First Bloom Index is based on the flowering of lilacs ad honeysuckles. This index is associated with blooming of early spring shrubs and leaf out of deciduous trees."

In some areas of Missouri, Kansas, southern Illinois and places near Cincinnati, the first hints of leaves have just appeared, roughly three weeks ahead of schedule. 

That's about the northern extent of this early leaf out as of this past weekend, but warm weather in the coming days might nudge this definition of spring even further north. 

In Washington DC, they are predicting an early cherry blossom season, too. The National Park Service is predicting peak bloom from around March 23-26, while the Washington Post predicts March 19-23.  Either way, it's still earlier than the normal peak, which is around April 1. 

The blooms have been early most of the time in recent years. 

This whole early spring blooming in much of the U.S. is potentially bad news.   The early flowering of fruit trees and other crops leave them prone to late season frosts and freezes,

After early season record breaking warmth in 2012 and 2017 harsh freezes hit, causing immense damage to crops in the South and Midwest. The 2017 freeze alone caused $1.2 billion in damage. 

Here in Vermont the early part of last spring was incredibly warm, leading to a late season freeze that caused devastation in many apple orchards, vineyards and fruit growing farm.