We haven't seen this in awhile:
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| Snowfall accumulation map from the National Weather Service has been adjusted upward since this morning. Expect further changes in the forecast as the storm approaches. |
A winter storm watch is in effect for parts of Vermont Saturday night and Sunday.
The watch covers all of the Green Mountains and a large section of the rest of Vermont from the Green Mountains east and north of a line from roughly from Ripton to Thetford.
It could well be a mess in these locations. Latest forecasts call for four to 12 inches of heavy wet snow with winds gusting to 45 mph.
This all seems strange given what a springlike day we've had today, and the relatively springlike first half or so of the day we should see on Saturday.
Before we go on, the forecasts have an incredibly high bust potential. A dynamic storm, with temperatures hovering near freezing, with varying rates of precipitation intensity means nobody is really sure how much snow will fall where and when.
If temperatures turn out to be a degree or two higher or lower than forecast, an expected trace of snow could end up at a few inches, or a foot of snow could turn into just a few inches.
It's pretty much impossible to pinpoint specific temperatures. There's almost always a couple degrees error in almost every weather forecast.
Yes, the forecast map you see in this post looks pretty specific. But any given spot on the map could easily see much more, or much less snow than shown.
But we'll give it a shot.
PRELIMINARY FORECAST
Since this morning the forecast has trended a little colder for this weekend's storm. Earlier forecasts had just rain in the Champlain Valley, but now the expectation is some snow will mix in overnight Saturday into Sunday.
It's now looking like there could be a slushy coating to a couple inches of soggy snow accumulation even in places like Middlebury, Burlington and St. Albans by Sunday.
Those areas under the winter storm watch face difficult travel and risk of power outages due to the heavy snow.
It still looks like we'll have a lull in the precipitation during the late morning and afternoon Sunday. It'll still be raw, but temperatures will creep up, melting some of the snow that might accumulate in the valleys.
The storm will bomb out northeast of New England and in the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday through Monday. This sets the stage for a possibly big upslope snow in the central and northern Green Mountains.
Most places will see at least flurries. Eastern parts of Rutland, Addison, Chittenden and Franklin counties could see a few to several inches of snow Sunday night through Monday night. Right up in the Green Mountains, there could be a lot of snow.
The following is not an official forecast, but I can picture some of the Green Mountain summits grabbing nearly a foot of snow in storm's initial burst Saturday night and Sunday. The they could pick up perhaps another foot Sunday night through Monday night. This is not a promise, just a possibility.
It's March, and the sun angle is higher. So even though it will be cold and windy Monday, low elevations will probably have afternoon temperatures near or a little above freezing. That would limit snow accumulation during the day. And the snow might mix with raindrops in the warm spots.
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