Another Very Early Spring Risks Expensive U.S. Freeze Damage Later

A freeze last May 18 wilted the leaves that came out
too early in the season on this Williston, Vermont tree.

 Last spring, I took a chance and decided to plant a magnolia tree in my St. Albans, Vermont backyard.

It's supposed to be a rather freeze resistant variety, but you can only do so much. A freeze can spoil the magnolia flower show I'm hoping for.  

It looks like a freeze will do just that. Our insanely warm winter and early spring has resulted in giant buds already on that poor little magnolia tree. 

 If things go the way they almost certainly will, a hard freeze this week will kill off those potential flowers.

The tree will survive, but it won't be as pretty as I'd hoped.

My magnolia drama is just a tiny, tiny example of what farmers, orchardists, vineyard owners and gardeners throughout the eastern half of the nation are fearing. 

That warmest winter on record has been followed by record hot spells in March. Inevitably, the weather pattern has changed, at least temporarily. Normal March weather is hitting many areas, and that means frosts and freezes.  

That's usually not a problem this time of year, but this year is different. Plants are growing way too soon from the Canadian border to the South.   Freeze watches and warnings are in effect for Monday night and Tuesday morning for a large area across the Southeast U.S.  Temperatures in these areas are forecast to fall well into the 20s. 

Even if this cold snap doesn't do much harm, the risk of harsh freezes will last well into April in the South, and far into May for us northerners. 

This could all cause millions, perhaps billions of dollars in crop losses. 

It's become a pattern in recent years. Warm winters led to harsh spring freezes in 2012, 2017, 2023 and other recent years. Each of those episodes caused billions of dollars in crop losses

From apple growers in Michigan to peach farmers in Georgia, farmers are nervously watching the progress of spring cold fronts. It just takes one frigid night, like we had last May 18 in Vermont, to cause immense crop damage.

The fickle finger of climate change is partly responsible for these awful episodes of spring freezes.   Winter is generally the fastest warming season. The dry air of winter is more susceptible to heating up in a changed climate.  So plants grow too soon, turning  spring into a vulnerable season to say the least.

A hallmark of climate change is increased weather variability, so there you go. 

In some cases, the cold snap now moving into the eastern United States is a bit of a blessing. .There's reason to hope the colder weather won't be frigid enough to kill buds. It'll just keep 'em from growing for awhile. 

Michigan apple orchards are already budding, and a week of cold weather will shut down their growth for awhile. That buys time so that the buds will bloom a bit later, possibly helping them miss spring freezes.  

Here in Vermont, the chill expected to last all of next week will stall garden plants and such, so they don't grow big enough to suffer later spring cold snaps (though I suspect my magnolia is a lost cause)

Even if a frost doesn't kill stuff off, the early start to spring threatens other issues.  Plants that emerge too early might not be pollinated by insects, because it's too early for the insects to do their work. 

Pests like mosquitoes will emerge early and last longer, enabling insect-borne diseases to spread more easily. 

In my own yard, based on the behavior I'm seeing, it appears a robin has already laid eggs in a spruce tree in back of the house. That's too early. I have my doubts if those eggs/chicks will survive.

We have no way of knowing right now, of course, whether we will see more ofthose intense spring freezes. We might coast through the season with nothing much in the way of cold fronts.  

Damaging freezes have always been a threat in the spring. Nowadays, the threat has grown.