Heavy Snow, Power Outages Loom In This Weekend's Vermont Winter Storm

The National Weather Service snow forecast map issued
early Saturday morning is showing quite a bit more
snow that previous forecasts for the upcoming storm.

 Since last night, the trend has continued to turn colder and snowier with the upcoming storm here in Vermont due to start this evening. 

A winter storm warning is now up the entire Green Mountain chain and in parts of central and eastern Vermont. Those areas should see up to 14 inches of snow, and a large share of it should be wet and heavy. 

The entire rest of Vermont is under a winter weather advisory. Yes, that includes the "banana belts" of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valley. 

The biggest problem with this storm is it looks to be another power outage nightmare, like we've had so often in recent months. The other problem is obviously poor driving conditions. 

This will be a two-part storm, so let's get into it

PART 1

And the clouds increase today, it won't seem like a snowstorm is on our doorstep.  Winds will increase from the south, and it will feel like it's going to rain soon.

Sure enough, the rain will arrive this evening. But as the atmosphere cools beneath the heavy precipitation, it'll change to snow. That changeover will be quick in the high elevations and slower in the valleys.

But by early morning, everybody should either be snowing, or dealing with a rain/snow mix. 

This is a pretty impressive slug of moisture, so snowfall rates will go to one inch per hour in some spots. That would be pretty heavy snow if this stuff was light and fluffy. 

This stuff won't be light and fluffy. 

Instead, expect basically a wet cement/slush kind of thing. That kind of snow doesn't pile up as fast as fluff, so the inch per hour forecast is all the more impressive. 

Blustery winds will continue all night, too. A few spots along the west slopes of the Green Mountain could see gusts over 50 mph. The rest of us could easily gust over 35 mph. 

The combination of pasty snow and winds will almost surely knock out power to a lot of people, mostly in mid and high elevations. Fingers crossed, the small amount of slush that piles up in the warmer valleys won't cause those problems. 

Needless to say, the roads across much of Vermont will be crappy tomorrow morning. 

THE LULL

The heavy stuff should taper off by late morning Sunday, says the National Weather Service. Snow levels will rise, and some of the yuck in the low elevation should thaw away a little bit. We'll still have a few cold rain drops all day, with a little more snow in the mountains. 

At least this should give us a break, as plows clear the roads and some of the power outages get repaired. 

But that's not the end of it.

PART 2

But wait! There's more! 

The storm will be a large, lumbering beast by the time it gets into northeastern New England. It will linger there and in the Canadian Maritimes through Monday. It's a classic backside storm event, with wet, cold air on gusty northwest winds sweeping through. 

That will allow the snow to re-blossom Sunday night and continue most of the day Monday. Not much new snow, if any, will pile up in the Connecticut River Valley. Areas right near Lake Champlain shouldn't really get clobbered either. 

But the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains, the Northeast Kingdom and especially the Green Mountains themselves should find themselves in some pretty heavy snows again. 

Strong winds and snow loading should encourage more power outages, and the roads will be bad again by Monday mornings commute. 

The snow should wind down Monday night, though it might linger a little bit in the northern Green Mountains into Tuesday morning.

TOTALS

We still have a BIG bust potential here, since temperatures will be so marginal.  For instance, if it's a degree or two colder than expected in the Champlain Valley, there could be a surprise half a foot. If it's a degree or so warmer, then mostly just rain.

Basically the same is true in the low and mid elevations of central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom.  If it's on the cold side, those areas get more than six inches, possibly ten inches. A little warmth would keep accumulation under three inches or so.

If you see any forecast amount in  your town, expect it to differ some from reality. 

That said, totals in the Champlain Valley look like they will be two to four inches, but some of that will melt during Sunday afternoon's lull, then come back again Sunday night. 

Most other northern Vermont lowlands can expect two to eight inches, depending on location and elevation. 

The Green Mountains, including the ski areas should do great, with easily more than a foot of snow dumping up there before this is over.  I'm more confident about the expected accumulations in the high elevations than in the iffy predictions lower down the slopes. 

Although the snow will be somewhat lighter and fluffier Sunday night, at least in the mountains, we're still talking heart attack snow here. This will break your snow shovel, clog your snow blower and short circuit your heart. Be careful out there. 

It still looks warm for most of next week, so much of the snow in the valleys should melt by next Friday. 

ELSEWHERE 

This isn't just a Vermont storm, of course. Heavy mountain snow is due in the Adirondacks, New Hampshire's White Mountains, and western Maine. 

I'm most worried about the coast of Maine. That area was devastated by high tides and storm surges during the two January storms that brought us in Vermont those high winds. 

Significant coastal flooding is definitely possible in Maine.  Especially since the storm is already coinciding with the highest astronomical tide of the month. 

Southern and eastern Maine also face the risk of river flooding too.

Coastal flooding will also extend all the way down the coast as far south as Virginia with this storm.

The wide ranging system is also setting off flash flooding in the Southeast.   There could even be a couple of tornadoes today in parts of Georgia, South Carolina and northern Florida.