Weird, Stormy, Snowy Vermont Wednesday Yields To Frigid Thursday, Then Winter Storm

Heavy snow falling in downtown St. Albans, Vermont
late Thursday afternoon. 

Thursday was quite the exciting weather day in Vermont with those snow squalls. Now, today, we're suddenly taken back to midwinter. By Friday night and Saturday we could well have a major snowstorm. Five days from now we hit full time spring weather again. 

March keeps us Vermonters on our toes, doesn't it! 

We'll break it all down piece by piece below, starting with some info on what happened Thursday. 

SQUALLY THURSDAY

That snow really came down hard for awhile, didn't it. Pretty much all of us in Vermont shared in the excitement Wednesday, some more than others. 

The heaviest snow came along and just ahead of a  cold front, so it was a fairly wet snow. That was good, as there wasn't much blowing snow. That prevented visibility from getting even worse on the highways.

Plenty of Vermont towns saw  two to six inches, much of it coming in three hours or less. Marshfield reported 3.5 inches in two hours. Hinesburg had 2.9 inches in three hours, according to reports collected by the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

The highest snow total I've seen so far is 8.3 inches at an 1,100 foot elevation in Underhill. 

There was indeed thunder snow here and there. A noted a strike on a lightning detector map somewhere near Milton Wednesday aftenoon. 

A line of snow thunderstorms moved across far southern Vermont, too. Bennington reported a thunderstorm with snow at around 6 p.m.  Near high elevations Readsboro, Mitch, or @VermontsterWx on X captured on film what pretty much amounted to a severe or nearly severe thunderstorm.

Mitch's video shows lightning, thunder, heavy snow and definitely strong winds. 

High elevation have really seen the snow pile up this week. Jay Peak reports 21 inches of new snow since Sunday. 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield went from 61 inches a week ago, to 81 inches as of 5 p.m. Thursday. It kept snowing on Mount Mansfield after 5 p.m. so there's even more now. And perhaps a LOT more in the forecast, as you'll see further down intros post

Thursday truly was a weather geek's party day, that's for sure. 

COLD WEATHER

Was looking rather blizzardy and frigid Thursday 
morning in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Temperatures plunged last night and the winds picked up even more.   Temperature continued to fall this morning even after sunrise That's a testimony to the strength of this blast of cold air. 

By 8 a.m. pretty much all of us were in the teens to around 20.  Wind chills were in the single digits. 

There were still quite a few snow showers around northern Vermont, but those will wane during the day. 

The cold will hang tough, as we stay in the 20s to around 30 all day with those gusty northwest winds. 

Tonight will be wintry for sure. Lows will be in the single numbers and teens. Pretty close to average for mid-January. 

Friday will also be much colder than normal for this time of year. But at least the winds will be lighter, and some of us will get up near the freezing point in the afternoon

WINTER STORM WATCH

I've prattled on a lot here already, since there's so much to talk about. But there's an elephant in the room that must be discussed. Or at least the elephant will be here shortly.

Said pachyderm is the now-likely snowstorm in Vermont, due Friday night and Saturday.  The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for all but the southernmost two counties in Vermont. Though I suspect that the National Weather Service in Albany, NY, which covers Bennington and Windham Counties, might issue one later. 

The watch goes from Friday evening through Saturday night.  

National Weather Service in South Burlington with
an early snow forecast for Saturday's expected storm.
Predictions will change one way or another 
between now and then. 

For now, the National Weather Service is forecasting five to eight inches of snow for most of us between Friday evening and late Saturday night. 

However, there might well be some big adjustments in the snow totals either up or down.  You can see the uncertainty in the forecasts. 

For instance, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is - for now - forecasting 6.3 inches of snow in Montpelier. But there's a 10 percent chance it could be as little as three inches and a 10 percent chance it could be as much as 18 inches. 

The computer models still haven't figured out how much moisture will feed into Vermont, which will have a huge impact on how much snow we get. 

As of Thursday morning the scariest computer model is the European, which brings about 1.2 to 2.4 inches of precipitation to Vermont. That would translate to more than a foot of wet snow. The American model is less dire, and more in line with the five to eight inch scenario.

This could also mix with or change to a cold rain in spots, especially south. 

This storm forecast will need tons of updates in the next day or so. Stay tuned! 

This belated winter siege should end next week as temperatures warm up pretty drastically after Monday.