Chile's Big Wildfires Not Necessarily Due To Climate Change After All

A deadly February wildfire in Chile could not be really
attributed to climate change, according to scientists
who determine links between weather extremes and
climate or other factors. 

You might remember how I told you in a post on February 9 about some huge, deadly wildfires in Chile.

I speculated about the fires being made worse by climate change. In the headline, I even said it was "part of a disturbing climate trend."

In this case, I was probably wrong about that. 

Increased deadly wildfires around the world are indeed a disturbing climate trend. But the growing science of attribution - which looks at the specific causes of disasters in rapid response, questions whether the Chilean wildfires really were worsened by climate change. 

 According to Climate Brief:

"Climate change did not have a statistically significant impact on the wildfires that hit Chile (in February), according to a new attribution study by the world Weather Attribution Service."

It's not that climate change had absolutely nothing to do with the Chilean fires. 

The deep dive into Chile's fires was conducted by World Weather Attribution. They use a growing field of science that can either tie a specific extreme weather event to climate change, or debunk a link to that climate change. 

Here's how World Weather Attribution puts it:

"World Weather Attribution uses weather observations and climate models to understand how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. The studies also assess the role of vulnerability and exposure in the extent of the impacts.

Most studies are performed rapidly, in the aftermath of extreme weather events - or even while they're still happening - to answer the increasingly common question: "What was the role of climate change in this event."

Their work is important to understand exactly what climate change does and doesn't do.  I - and many others - speculate during each extreme weather moment whether climate change made things worse. World Weather Attribution is applying sober science to that question.  

That would help reduce hype on any side of the political spectrum. Or at least that's the idea. Figuring out what disasters were worsened by climate change and which weren't help us find strategies to gird ourselves against future, similar disasters. Whether caused by global warming or not. 

 CHILEAN FIRE EXPLANATION

Authors of the attribution study said "global warming will likely increase the risk of fire conditions in central Chile," and that climate change is making most of the nation hotter and drier, which make wildfires more likely. 

So, climate change made the fire conditions more likely when the blazes broke out, but that added likelihood was statistically significant, according to Climate Brief.

The February fires in Chile were pretty close to the coast. Shifting weather patterns are actually - in general - making parts of coastal Chile a bit cooler.  

Probably the biggest factor behind the ferocity of the Chilean wildfires was changes in land use. 

Settlements in forested areas, an increase in non-native species and monoculture plantations all make wildfires more likely.  People have added more pine and eucalyptus trees to the mix. Both types of trees are highly flammable. 

Those settlements in the fire zone contained houses  mostly made of wood. Again, easier to burn. Much of the burned area was densely populated, with little regard for land planning. 

The fires were obviously fired by hot, dry, windy weather. The authors of the study said the kind of conditions the region had just prior to and during the firestorm were a one in 30 year event in today's climate.