Now that it's spring, it's time for a major, disruptive winter storm.
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| This morning's National Weather Service snow forecast map. Virtually all of Vermont north of Route 4 is now expecting at least a foot of snow out of this. Saturday is going to be a real mess. |
As expected, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for everybody in Vermont except Bennington and Windham counties in far southern parts of the state
THE HEADLINES:
--- This might be the biggest snowstorm of the year, with more than a foot likely for the vast majority of towns from about Route 4 north to the Canadian border.
----- Road conditions will be awful Saturday and travel is not recommended at all.
---- We could see a large number of power outages again, especially as the snow becomes wetter and heavier by late morning and afternoon.
------ Snow will probably mix with or change to rain, sleet and maybe some freezing rain Saturday from roughly Route 4 southward.
----- The forecast has a very high bust potential one way or another. Expect surprises, and results may vary. The mix with rain in southern Vermont is a big wildcard.
THE DETAILS
Forecasted snow amounts have further increased since the predictions from last night and yesterday morning. Most places in central and northern Vermont should expect at least a foot of snow. A few favored locations, especially in the mountains could close in on two feet of snow.
Everything is coming together for a big storm, as plenty of moisture will flood in off the Atlantic Ocean to sock New England with TONS of precipitation.
Southern New England is looking at a flood threat. Northern New England is "lucky" enough to stay cold enough for mostly or all snow.
The Effects
This will all start as snow after midnight tonight statewide. It won't take long before it starts coming down really hard, like an inch or even locally two inches per hour. That's a pace at which it's hard for plow crews to keep up with it.
Expect crappy road conditions all day Saturday. They're even saying travel would be virtually impossible at some times and some areas. Today ought to be your traditional milk and bread panic day, or booze buying day if you're into that. You'll want to hunker down and stay home tomorrow.
Oh, and make sure you stock up today on LED candles and flashlights and stuff too, if you don't already have them. Power outages are inevitable. We just don't yet know how extensive they'll be.
The snow will start out fairly powdery before dawn, but then turn wetter and heavier as the day wears on. This will be a statewide issue by afternoon. Many of us will start to hear branches break, and power flicker and/or go off.
Just how wet and heavy the snow becomes will determine how bad the power outages get. Be prepared, just in case.
This will also be "heart attack" snow, hard to shovel away. Do it slowly during and after the storm, or better yet, hire your local high school student athlete to clear the snow for you. This is the type of stuff that will clog snow blowers.
I'm being Captain Obvious here, but it needs to be said: Shut off the snow blower when it clogs, wait for all the parts to stop moving, then use a tool or broomstick to unclog. Keep your hands to yourself and don't fondle the snow blower, please. That is if you want to keep your hands attached to your arms for future use.
Anyway, this will be a day long affair, with the heavy snow lasting probably into the evening north of Route 4. It probably won't be a matter of waiting for conditions to improve. In most places, they probably won't.
This storm will hit just as hard in northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, and parts of southern Quebec, too, so it won't be easy to escape this.
South of Route 4, the National Weather Service is still forecasting a mix with or more likely a change to rain. There could also be pockets of sleet and freezing rain to make things even more fun. This will all hold accumulations there down to six inches or less.
And you'll have an awful slush fest on your hands. Which will probably harden like cement when temperatures fall Saturday night.
Bust Potential
As always with this storms, we're going to have surprises. The National Weather Service is confident there will be a lot of snow, but the definition of "a lot" is iffy here. There's a more than 90 percent chance of at least six inches of snow north of Route 4, so the confidence is high there.
The chances for at least a foot of snow go down to between 50 and 65 percent north of Middlebury and Thetford.
The big questions are whether the rain will poke further north than forecast. That would cut down accumulations in central Vermont.
Or, less likely, the storm might not phase up as expected, so the moisture feed could be disrupted and we'll get less.
The National Weather Service forecast map you see on this post isn't gospel. It's a general idea of what is expected as of Friday morning. Expect adjustments to the forecast today and tonight. And when the storm is over, chances are you'll have somewhat less or somewhat more snow than what's depicted.
The Big Thaw
This being spring, not all the snow will stick around forever. Sunday will be a big powder day on the ski slopes, though the sun might soften the snow and make it a little slushy in places where the sun really hits. The high sun angle of late March can really heat things up, even if the air stays cold.
It will be a bright, sunny day to start clearing snow. That high sun angle will cause a LOT of reflectivity. It will be blinding out there, so definitely bring the sunglasses.
It'll only get into the 30s in most low elevations Sunday, so there won't be huge melting. It'll just start in sunny corners.
The deep snow cover, mostly clear skies and light winds will make temperatures crash Sunday night, with readings easily dropping to near 10 or even under that in many places.
The rest of the week looks seasonably warm, with daytime temperatures getting well into the 40s. The thaw will start, at least in the valleys.
With all the snow the mountains have gotten in the past week, and the snow we're going to see tomorrow, the flood potential goes up. If it gets really warm and rains heavily in the next week or two, we're in for a bit of trouble.
At this point it seems that chances favor a gradual melt with not a huge amount of rain, so that's good news. Rain showers are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. For the time being, I'm unimpressed by the expected rainfall totals, which is a good thing if you don't want high water.
But, we'll just get through this big snowstorm and worry about that later.
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