Eclipse Day Vermont Weather Still Unknown, But Possible Trend Emerging

The path of the eclipse over Vermont on April 8.
Pray hard for clear skies especially between
3:25 and 3:31 p.m. that day. 

April 8 Total Eclipse of the Sun eclipse day in Vermont is fast approaching, as it's only about a week and a half away or so.  

Some of the long range forecasts are now covering that day with supposed hints of what kind of weather will come that day.  Which gets people asking, will we actually see the sky on Eclipse Day, or will everything be hidden by clouds? 

I wouldn't get too excited about those April 8 weather forecasts just yet.   

Weather predictions more than, say, five days out are notoriously unreliable. You might start to pick up trends in the weather pattern 10 or 11 days out, but that doesn't tell you exactly what the weather will be on April 8.

As of today, then, my official Vermont forecast for April 8 is:

"Cloudy, unless it's partly cloudy or clear. Chance of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, drizzle, freezing drizzle, sleet, hail, fog, showers, thunderstorms or none or some or all of the above. If the wind blows, it will come out of a direction. Or directions. Highs in the upper 20s to low 80s."

So yeah, not terribly helpful.  It just demonstrates we'll have to wait for better updates much closer to the event. It'll be awhile yet before we see a reliable April 8 forecast. 

FORECAST TRENDS

I did say I'm seeing trends in the long range forecast, take them with a Peterbilt sized grain of salt, but here goes, just for fun.

Most - but not all - of the  computer models have a dip in the jet stream somewhere near the Northeast, which implied unsettled weather and a high risk of clouds. 

What we don't know is whether said clouds will be overhead, or obscure where the sun is in the sky between 3:25 and 3:31 p.m April 8. That's when the total eclipse will be occurring. 

The computer models - to nobody's surprise - have not yet come up with a location of the dip in the jet stream. It could be overhead, or maybe off the coast, or over the Great Lakes. 

This is a random weather map I found on the Internet,
but this would be a best case scenario for 
Eclipse Day, April 8 in Vermont. 

We certainly don't know where any particular weather fronts will be at 3:30 p.m. on April 8. 

 It could be bad timing, with rain and showers going on at the time of the eclipse. Or we could be between weather fronts with mostly clear skies greeting us. 

The best case scenario that we should pray for is that a cold front comes through sometimes on April 7, followed by crisp, dry  high pressure from southern Canada. 

That high should either be overhead, or just a short distance to the north or west of Vermont at eclipse time.  If  that happens, it probably won't be particularly warm, but who cares? All we want is clear skies. Such a scenario would definitely keep clouds to a minimum.

High pressure just to our east would be fine, too, but that scenario gives us the risk of some high, thin clouds. You'd still see the eclipse, but maybe not through perfectly clear skies. 

There are several worst case scenarios. Probably the most depressing would be a nor'easter in or very near New England. Or a strong warm front approaching from our south, which would give us a thick overcast and possibly heavy precipitation. 

The odds are still stacked in favor of clouds. But we knew that already.  On average, there's a 70 percent chance of cloudy or mostly cloudy skies on any April 8 in Vermont.  

Cloudy Vermont seems to always miss out on the best celestial events, as clear skies seem to come only when nothing exciting is going on in the skies. Keep hoping the Weather Gods bless the Green Mountain State just this once.