Vermont Spring Weather Bursts Forth Again, At Least For Now

Deep blue skies and fresh white snow cover in
Bakersfield, Vermont Tuesday on a spectacularly
bright and gorgeous March day. 

 Wasn't Tuesday's weather absolutely spectacular?   

The sky was the deepest blue imaginable. In places that received a lot of snow earlier this week the white gleamed in the bright, high angle sunshine of March.  

Near Lake Champlain, the lack of snow cover really helped the day warm up.

Everywhere, the combination of the subfreezing weather Sunday and Monday and the warm sunshine of Tuesday had sugar makers super busy, which is a good sign.  

I noticed a couple of interesting things going on yesterday. Satellite photos showed thick snow cover in most of Vermont. The immediate Champlain Valley, places right along the Connecticut River and in some low lands in southwestern Vermont the ground was free of snow.

The satellite picture exactly matched the National Weather Service map of actual snow totals.  Only a couple inches fell in low spots, which quickly melted. Up to a foot and a half fell along the west slopes of the Greens.

Satellite photo with clear skies Tuesday shows 
snow cover in the Adirondacks, most of 
Vermont outside the warmer valleys and
in western New Hampshire. 

The snow cover, or lack of it had a noticeable effect on daytime temperatures Tuesday.

 In areas with no snow, the bare ground absorbed the bright sun's heat and temperatures soared into the low 50s. 

In other areas, the fresh snow cover bounced the sun's heat back out to space to some extent, so temperatures there held mostly around 40 degrees. 

It just demonstrate to show that if you have an early spring with little snow on the ground, chances are you also have a rather warm early spring. Which is what we've had so far. 

That state of affairs should continue into the weekend, even in areas that have a snow cover. Which will be waning anyway.

Outlook

We had another freeze last night, so that should again help those out there sugaring. However, many of us will once again stay above freezing from now until at least Sunday night.  

Those long stretches of warm nights we have had have all winter and early spring have interfered with sugaring and the winter sports industry. Plus has created our never ending mud season, which essentially started in January. 

High temperatures will reach to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees today and tomorrow, which is definitely on the mild side for mid-March. Even this weekend, highs will "only" be in the mid and upper 40s, which is still a bit on the balmy side for the period around St. Patrick's Day. 

National Weather Service map of snow totals from
the storm we just had matches the satellite photo 
above. Where little snow fell, the ground is
already bare. Where it was heavy, the ground gleams
white with snow, at least for now. 

Tuesday would have been a great day for a solar eclipse, but alas, we'll have to pray for similar weather on April 8, when the actual eclipse gets here.

The blue skies of Tuesday are gone, in favor of a mix of clouds and sun. More rain is in the forecast, so that will worsen our long slog through mud season.

In Burlington, it's not even quite mid month and we've already had very close to what is normal precipitation for the entire month. The upcoming rains won't be especially heavy.

With snow melt and the lighter rains rivers and streams will probably get high or stay that way, but we won't have enough rain to create huge flood problems.. Just more mud.

The best chances of rain are Thursday night and Friday, and again probably on Sunday.  We'll probably see a couple days of pretty chilly weather starting Monday, as it looks now. 

Laughable Computer Model

The following will almost certainly not happen, but it's an illustration of how I am sometimes entertained by long range forecasts. It's especially a cautionary tale as to why you should't believe weather forecasts beyond, say, five days out. 

The American computer model depicts a mega-storm affecting the Northeast, including Vermont around March 26. But the model's evolution of the proposed storm makes absolutely no sense.  It also has the storm going by far to the south of Vermont, but still somehow flinging three or four  inches of rain our way. 

By Wednesday the 27th, it has the storm something like 400 or 500 miles of the New England coast and still giving Vermont heavy precipitation.  Yeah, right.

I suppose there might be some sort of storminess toward the end of March, and these long range forecasts are sort OK for giving a hint at future weather patterns. But the specifics? Hah!  That American computer model was drinking way too much vodka when it came up with the storm forecast for March 26-27.

It ain't going to happen.