Friday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Forecast: Still Big Statewide; Amounts Increased South

This afternoon's updated snow accumulation forecast
from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
The only big change from this morning is a forecast
for much more snow than previous thought in
southern Vermont. Amounts reduced a tiny bit
since this morning in far northwest Vermont. 

 As of late afternoon Friday, our big winter storm is still on the books for late tonight and Saturday, and it still looks like a doozy. 

No surprise, the winter storm warning is still in effect, and has, in fact, expanded

The headlines are basically the same as this morning, but as you'd expect, changes are happening in the forecast and still will continue to do so. 

There's still a high bust potential on the forecast because the storm is just now compiling itself into one unit.  Unexpected things could happen.

For now, though, the expected snow accumulations haven't changed much since this morning. Broad brush,  most of Vermont except the far south can expect 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this. 

CHANGES AND UPDATES

What follows are changes and updates to the forecast as of late Friday afternoon, courtesy of the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  

My guess right now is the heaviest snow will fall south and east of a Burlington to Newport line, but those of us in the northwest corner of Vermont won't entirely miss out, not even close. Up there near and north of St. Albans, there might only be 7 to 13 inches of snow. 

Remember, that could change one way or another. Don't count on anything with this storm,  

The biggest forecast change is in southern Vermont. 

We won't see as much rain mix south of Route 4 as we  thought this morning. The overall forecast has gotten a smidge cooler, enough to keep most of the storm snow in most of southern Vermont. Rutland and Windsor counties now look like they'll see up to a foot of snow. Maybe more in the high elevations.  

Even down in Bennington and Windham counties, a winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.  That means the entire state of Vermont is now under that warning. 

Low elevations in far southern Vermont should see some rain, sleet or freezing rain mix in, especially during the day Saturday. The midday rain will be probably be bookended by heavy snow early and late Saturday in places like Bennington and maybe Brattleboro. 

IMPACTS

As for power outages, draw a horizontal line through the exact middle of Vermont. Very roughly, those south of that line should experience some very heavy, quite wet snow, especially during the day Saturday. The areas south of this imaginary line should have the most power outages with this storm.

Those outages will almost no doubt extend south to the Massachusetts border and beyond. 

A familiar sight before a Vermont winter storm. 
Increasing high cloudiness over St. Albans,
Vermont this afternoon.

North of that line, the snow will be somewhat less wet and heavy, but will still won't exactly be light and fluffy. That means some scattered power outages are likely all the way to the Canadian border and beyond. 

If the forecast is accurate there won't be much difference in accumulation between central and southern Vermont. 

But the central and southern Vermont snow will be much more dense, with quite a bit more of a water content than further north.   In reality, the southern half of Vermont will have more snow than the north, but it will be more compact.

Melt the snow down, and you'll get about an inch of rain north and probably closer to two inches south. That's pretty substantial for a late March winter storm. Not record breaking, but impressive. 

As for getting around, it still looks like this storm will waste your entire Saturday.  Things get under way before dawn and this will last into the evening.  The roads will be lousy all day.  At times, it'll be hard for road crews to keep up with the pace of plowing. 

In the worst hit areas with the wettest, deepest snow, we could see trouble once again with fallen trees and branches blocking secondary roads. 

AFTERWARDS

After the snow ends Saturday night, we're still expecting a nice, sunny, but somewhat chilly day Sunday for storm cleanup.  It'll be heart attack snow, so be careful. The road crews should clean up the roads nicely, so the trip to the ski areas should be fine. 

It's still looking warmer all of next week, but so far I'm still not seeing heavy rains that would combine with melting snow to produce flooding. Just a prolonged mud season, is all.