Florida Humidity Has Arrive In Vermont. But We Can Already See Signs It Will Eventually End

Early this morning, the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
already had that unstable, humid, hazy look to it as
we begin a long spell of oppressive weather. 

 Well, that humidity blasted in early today, as scheduled. 

As of 10 a.m. dew points around Vermont were in the mid and upper 60s, which is sticky as hell. Over in New York State, a lot of low 70s dew points were popping up. Which is a sign it will get worse before it gets better. 

Regular readers will note that I'm posting my morning report closer to noon today, which is weird. I figured I'd be better off if I did some outdoor physical work that needs to get done early.  I was right, but toward the end I was dying. 

Be careful out there. Limited your activities and drink plenty of fluids. I'm drinking a big-ass bottle of Gatorade as I write this. 

The oppressive, Florida-like weather will stick around for awhile, as we've been saying the past few days. But, to give you a little encouragement, it is August.  This can't last forever. I'll get into that when I get into the daily forecasts below

In any event, there are nicks starting to appear in summer's fortress. It got down to 38 degrees in Hibbing, Minnesota yesterday morning. True, Hibbing is a traditional Minnesota cold spot, but still, I'll take it as a sign o an eventual autumn. 

Out in Denver, they're having a horribly hot summer, but they caught a big, if brief break. They had a record low of 47 degrees yesterday, which came just two days after a record high of 102. So yesterday must have been a relief for them. Unfortunately it's back to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in Denver starting today and going through next Monday. 

Even so, as you can see, we start to see the first subtle hints of summer's eventual fading hold on us. And it does look like cooler, drier air will gradually reach Vermont next week. But careful what you wish for. The weather might seem refreshing later next week. But it will be snowing in three months or less. 

REST OF TODAY

Humid, duh! Since it is so muggy, there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms. They'll be hit or miss, so not all of us will see much relief from the awfulness out there. Those of you who get bullseyed by any storms could see some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air to work with. 

The best chance of storms would be the northwest half of Vermont, but even there, not everyone will get wet. The showers should be widely scattered at best in southeast Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the rain will come after 4 p.m., but a pop up shower could appear at any time. There were a couple small downpours in northern New York already as of 10:30 a.m. 

Other than that, the storms won't become severe or anything like that.

Tonight the showers and storms should die down after sunset, and we're left with a sticky icky night. Hope you have air conditioning! 

FRIDAY:

Despite the Florida air, we probably won't have that much in the way of showers and storms. We'll be between little disturbance bobbing along in the southwest flow of air. All this will make Friday probably the worst day of this oppressive stretch. 

Friday's setup would normally give us temperatures above 90 degrees. But the air will be so wet that most of the sun's energy will go into trying to evaporate the moisture in the atmosphere. But since southwest winds will be pumping in more wet air, the humidity won't go down. 

The result will be dew points in the low 70s with highs well up into the 80s. There's a slight chance one or two towns will hit 90, but I'm not holding my breath. The humidity, though will definitely make it feel like it's in the 90s. 

Make tomorrow a lazy day. Your body will thank you. 

I suppose there's a chance of an isolated shower or storm, but the vast majority of us will be rain-free.

SATURDAY

Just as sticky and awful as Friday. But, there's a much better chance of showers Saturday than there was on Friday. So we might get some vaguely cooling rains from time to time. I think most everyone will see some rain. A few places will get very little, other places will get absolutely soaked with downpours. As is often the case in the summer, it's the luck of the draw.

SUNDAY

The first hints of relief. It should still be humid, but not quite as bad as today and tomorrow and Saturday. There should be a fair amount of sun, with a low risk of showers and storms. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Still muggy, still a risk of showers. But it will be slightly less humid that today and highs will only be in the low 80s. Still bad, but could be worse. Note this forecast is subject to change because it's quite a few days away

LATE NEXT WEEK

For now, forecasts continue to advertise more refreshing air for later in the week. There's still time for that forecast to get messed up, but for now, that's our true light at the end of this oppressive, muggy tunnel 

The Vermont Deep Chill Stays Deep; Subtle, Weak Signs Of Eventual Relief

Some days this time of year I don't want to go beyond
my front door to take a photo. Just too cold. Today
was one of those days. Can't imagine I'll be 
gardening out in this yard anytime soon. 

This has really been a long winter in Vermont. 

The snowy,  chilly weather started early, in the first half of November. We've had some sort of mild spells, but most of the time, it's been cold, snowy or both. 

The current cold wave is the most disheartening yet because it's lasting longer than any spell of Arctic air since January, 2005. 

We have gotten a bit soft, and not used to this. 

This morning, it was below zero across Vermont again.  On the plus side, winds keep temperatures from completely bottoming out. 

Pretty much everybody stayed in the single numbers below zero. But the northwest breeze has dropped our wind chills into the 20s below zero. 

It could have been worse. Conditions over in New York shows what can happen when winds go calm on a clear Arctic night. In Watertown, New York, just after winds went calm, the temperature fell from minus 2 to minus 17 within an hour late last evening, on its way down to a ridiculous low of 33 below early this morning. Not wind chill. Actual temperature. Down in Glens Falls, New York, it was 21 below this morning. 

I'm not anticipating anything that ridiculous in Vermont coming up. But it'll stay cold. Everyone in Vermont except maybe the warmest southern valleys should stay in the single numbers today. 

Through Sunday, highs will be in the teens and lows will go into the single numbers. The overall cold pattern still looks like it will continue into mid-February. 

I know many people love this. A true Vermont winter made for winter sports, ice fishing or just the fresh white scenery. 

There's a bunch of us, though who are so ready for a change. For spring. That's not coming anytime soon. But we have several glimmers of positivity to hang on to for dear life. They're not much, but we'll take anything we can get:

Nor'easter: Definitely a whiff. Winter storm warnings are up for the Carolinas and parts of Georgia. North Carolina's Outer Banks will endure a full-blown blizzard with 65 wind gusts and dangerous coastal flooding. This storm will also knick Cape Cod and the islands. 

But for us in Vermont, it will only throw some high clouds our way and maybe increase the north winds slightly on Sunday. 

A "Warm-up":  The cold should temporarily relax for a good part of next week with highs on several days making it to near 20 or even the low to mid 20s. That's still a few degrees colder than average, but it's not as cold as we're experiencing now. However, there are signs that "heat wave" might only last a few days. Still, it's something

No Records: We've gotten wimpy. We're not even close to setting much in the way of winter extreme records. Maybe it feels like things are off the charts but they aren't. Sure, snow depth atop Mount Mansfield earlier this winter was at record highs are are above normal now. The 81 inches of snow cover measured yesterday up there was the third highest for the dates

But here in the valleys, as measured in Burlington, as of yesterday, they were only 10 inches ahead of normal for seasonal snowfall for the date. Very little, if any snow will fall for at least the next week. 

And as we head into February, we absolutely won't break our record for the coldest temperature of the moth, which is 30 below in 1979 for Burlington. 

Turn Of The Clock: On average, the coldest days of the year in Burlington just ended today. From January 17 through 28, the normal average temperature in Burlington is 20 degrees. Today, that average increases to 20.5. The average will very gradually, grudgingly go up in February, then that pace will get faster starting in March. 

Also, the sunset in Burlington will come at 5 p.m. tomorrow.  That'll be the first 5 p.m. sunset of the year. 

Pattern Change Hint? For the first time in weeks, the people at the National Weather Service who put together the daily 8 to 14 day outlooks yesterday suggested a pattern change might be in the offing during the second half of February. 

They don't say exactly what that pattern change would be, but chances are it would the warmer for us. I'm still skeptical because what is known as the Arctic Oscillation is still negative and should stay that way at least into mid-February. 

A negative Arctic Oscillation, means high pressure in the Arctic with relatively warm, for them temperatures. This pattern squashes the cold air that is supposed to be up in northern Canada down into our faces south of the border in the eastern United States.

There are tentative, uncertain signs the negative Arctic Oscillation could start to weaken after the middle of February. 

This is a thin strand of hope, but some of us will take anything. 

weak signs of improvemet'

ave temp up 

first 5 p.m. sunset tomorrow. 

hints at pattern change

some days in 20s not teens next wee 

Eclipse Day Vermont Weather Still Unknown, But Possible Trend Emerging

The path of the eclipse over Vermont on April 8.
Pray hard for clear skies especially between
3:25 and 3:31 p.m. that day. 

April 8 Total Eclipse of the Sun eclipse day in Vermont is fast approaching, as it's only about a week and a half away or so.  

Some of the long range forecasts are now covering that day with supposed hints of what kind of weather will come that day.  Which gets people asking, will we actually see the sky on Eclipse Day, or will everything be hidden by clouds? 

I wouldn't get too excited about those April 8 weather forecasts just yet.   

Weather predictions more than, say, five days out are notoriously unreliable. You might start to pick up trends in the weather pattern 10 or 11 days out, but that doesn't tell you exactly what the weather will be on April 8.

As of today, then, my official Vermont forecast for April 8 is:

"Cloudy, unless it's partly cloudy or clear. Chance of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, drizzle, freezing drizzle, sleet, hail, fog, showers, thunderstorms or none or some or all of the above. If the wind blows, it will come out of a direction. Or directions. Highs in the upper 20s to low 80s."

So yeah, not terribly helpful.  It just demonstrates we'll have to wait for better updates much closer to the event. It'll be awhile yet before we see a reliable April 8 forecast. 

FORECAST TRENDS

I did say I'm seeing trends in the long range forecast, take them with a Peterbilt sized grain of salt, but here goes, just for fun.

Most - but not all - of the  computer models have a dip in the jet stream somewhere near the Northeast, which implied unsettled weather and a high risk of clouds. 

What we don't know is whether said clouds will be overhead, or obscure where the sun is in the sky between 3:25 and 3:31 p.m April 8. That's when the total eclipse will be occurring. 

The computer models - to nobody's surprise - have not yet come up with a location of the dip in the jet stream. It could be overhead, or maybe off the coast, or over the Great Lakes. 

This is a random weather map I found on the Internet,
but this would be a best case scenario for 
Eclipse Day, April 8 in Vermont. 

We certainly don't know where any particular weather fronts will be at 3:30 p.m. on April 8. 

 It could be bad timing, with rain and showers going on at the time of the eclipse. Or we could be between weather fronts with mostly clear skies greeting us. 

The best case scenario that we should pray for is that a cold front comes through sometimes on April 7, followed by crisp, dry  high pressure from southern Canada. 

That high should either be overhead, or just a short distance to the north or west of Vermont at eclipse time.  If  that happens, it probably won't be particularly warm, but who cares? All we want is clear skies. Such a scenario would definitely keep clouds to a minimum.

High pressure just to our east would be fine, too, but that scenario gives us the risk of some high, thin clouds. You'd still see the eclipse, but maybe not through perfectly clear skies. 

There are several worst case scenarios. Probably the most depressing would be a nor'easter in or very near New England. Or a strong warm front approaching from our south, which would give us a thick overcast and possibly heavy precipitation. 

The odds are still stacked in favor of clouds. But we knew that already.  On average, there's a 70 percent chance of cloudy or mostly cloudy skies on any April 8 in Vermont.  

Cloudy Vermont seems to always miss out on the best celestial events, as clear skies seem to come only when nothing exciting is going on in the skies. Keep hoping the Weather Gods bless the Green Mountain State just this once. 

"Omega Block" Offers Promises Of Vermont Sun, But Bad Storms California, Atlantic Canada

Schematic of an "omega block" weather pattern, similar 
to what we are in now. Black line would be roughly the
center of the jet stream. This means storms near the
West Coast and off the East Coast, while sunshine
breaks out in parts of the U.S, possibly here
here in Vermont for a welcome change. 

We in Vermont slogged through another day Friday with the ever-present thick overcast, fog, drizzle, wet, inconsequential snow flurries and just general ick. 

Friday was the 11th day in a row that most of us in Vermont saw absolutely no sun. Today, the sun did come out, for at least part of the day in part of the Green Mountain State. So I guess that's an improvement

But pretty much all winter, it's been overcast and foggy. I can't remember the last time we had two sunny days in a row.    

We finally have a chance -  chance, mind you - of actually seeing some fairly decent sun for more than a day  thanks to a weather pattern known as an Omega block.

It's called that because the jet stream maps under this pattern look like the Greek letter Omega. In this case, it features a big bulge northward in the jet stream over southern Canada and the northern United States.

To the east and west of this bulge are deep dips in the jet stream representing nasty storminess off the east coast of North America and along the West Coast .

Storm tracks are being pushed southward under the high pressure in southern Canada and the northern United States.

One such storm hit California Thursday, dumping heavy rains and causing flooding in cities like Long Beach and other southern California cities.  That storm is scheduled to pass through Florida Monday, and become a nasty gale far off the East Coast. 

The next California storm, began hitting California Saturday night and will continue today. This one promises to be even worse. This one could be deadly and disastrous, with severe flooding, mudslides and lots of wind damage. 

Given the dense population this storm is hitting, it will probably be another $1 billion plus disasters. I'll have more on this storm in upcoming posts.  

In a hopeful sign for Sunday, large parts of the sky over
St. Albans, Vermont were clear at sunset Saturday.
This could herald a long awaited somewhat sunny 
period after an incredible stretch of overcast weather. 

Meanwhile, the middle old the northward bulge that makes up the center of the omega block   is producing near record high temperatures in parts of the upper Midwest and south-central Canada. The light winds associated with this also helped produce another big dense fog attack, this time in the central and northern Plains on Saturday. 

For us, we are on the front side of that big northward jet stream bulge in that Omega pattern. 

 Near record warmth will stay confined well to our west, near the Great Lakes and south-central Canada. Northerly winds will keep Vermont's temperatures for the next few days close to normal.

Ho-hum.

The beautiful thing is, the high pressure accompanying this omega block weather pattern might just be enough to finally scour out that low overcast and fog that have kept us without sunshine for nearly two weeks.

Some low clouds will probably sneak in from time to time.  Also, perhaps some other clouds might swirl in every once in awhile from those storms far off the East Coast.  Still, starting Sunday, we have our best chance at seeing some blue skies and sun in quite awhile. These breaks of sunshine, if we're lucky, could last into at least part of Thursday. 

The omega pattern should begin to shift and start to break down towards Friday.  That giant California storm will head our way, but it will weaken tremendously. As it stands now, it looks like that storm will just bring us a return to overcast skies and a chance of some light rain or snow. 

If You Need A Small Dose Of Hope, Landmark Maui Banyan Tree, Damaged In Wildfire, Is Sprouting Leaves

New leaves are starting to sprout on a giant banyan tree
on Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. The huge tree was badly damaged
in an August wildfire that destroyed the town. All the leaves
on the trees had been burned off. 

When disaster get extreme, you always want to find some small glimmer of hope. 

Such is the case in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. The city was pretty much destroyed by an August wildfire, which killed at least 97 people. In the center of town is an enormous banyan tree, the largest in the United States. 

The tree was badly burned and scorched in the fire, losing all of its leaves. Many wonder whether it will survive. 

The Washington Post gives us that glimmer of hope: They report it is sprouting a few fresh green leaves. 

As WaPo reports:

"Volunteers have been working toward the banyan's recovery for weeks, carefully tending to its soil, monitoring it for sigs of growth and providing it with what they call 'tree-loving soup' Hawaii Magazine reported earlier this month". 

I guess if you're sick, chicken soup is the cure. If a banyan tree is badly damaged in a fire, it needs nourishing soup, too. The soup for the banyan tree is a concoction of nutrients landscape contractor Chris Imonti created to feed the huge, hurting tree. 

The banyan was planted in 1873 to mark the 50th anniversary old the first Protestant mission in Lahaina. 

I hope to see photos of this Maui treasure fully leafed out in the months ahead.  

Vermont Strong: Joy In Seeing Businesses Reopen After Horrific July Flood

This is a sad scene inside Bear Pond Books in 
Montpelier during the devastating floods in July.....

 I'll be the first to admit Vermont has a long way to go to fully recover from the catastrophic floods we had in July. 

The rallying cry after the flood has been Vermont Strong, and I don't think I've ever heard of more accurate catchphrase. 

We have been working together to clean up, repair, and get people back in homes, and businesses reopened. Keep it going Vermont!

A case in point is downtown Montpelier. The whole downtown was flooded, and dozens of stores, restaurants and other enterprise were devastated. But these businesses are reopening, and that is bringing joy to everyone, I swear.

A perfect example is Bear Pond Books. It's been there in Montpelier since 1973, and over the years has become a beloved independent book store and gathering place.

 Back on July 14, I posted a sad photo from inside Bear Pond Books, showing a ruined copy of climate activist Greta Thunberg's book, "The Climate Book" dejectedly floating in muddy waters inside the flood-destroyed store.

I was delighted today to see Bear Pond Books post on social media with much happier photos. The store re-opened on September 1, and a giant flood of shoppers - not water - invaded the store. 

....and here's the much happier scene inside 
Bear Pond Books when it reopened September 1.

One Bear Pond Books reopening photo really struck me. It showed a crowded store, its restored old hardwood floors gleaming. 

In the foreground, a smiling shopper looks thrilled to be there. Off to the left, a man and a woman appear to be having a joyful conversation. In the background, a sales clerk is happily ringing up what looks to be a woman's many purchases.

It's a wonderful photo, both emotionally and artistically. It shows a piece of Vermont community the way it's supposed to work. The image actually makes me a bit verklempt. 

You can't escape the climate change angle, though. In that new, happy photo, you see a book on display on the lower right. It's called "How To Live In A Chaotic Climate."

Will these newly climate charged severe storms keep flooding Montpelier again and again? 

 If so, what's the future for what I think is the most charming capital city in the United States. Not just Montpelier, but all of us. 

I'm not going to spoil the joy right now. I just need to drive down to Montpelier to stock up on some books, and see what else is open and interesting. For now, I'll celebrate the ongoing recovery.