Vermont Weather Flipping To Milder As We Switch Into November

A cold look to the atmosphere in St. Albans, Vermont as
October closed. November will open with much
milder weather and eventually, chances of rain

 I'm getting a late start today, sorry about that!  

October went out yesterday true to form with skies that were somewhat cloudier than forecast and temperatures that stayed cool.  The high in Burlington yesterday was only 48 degrees. I noticed in places like Eden, Vermont, mid-afternoon temperatures were only 39 degrees. 

A fitting end to one of the coldest Octobers in recent years. I'll have more on that in another post later today or tomorrow. 

We started the day in the low to mid 20s again today, but chilly October is over, in favor of mild November, at least for now. 

This week, for a change, is going to warmer than normal. Probably not record breaking warm, but still, pleasant for November. 

On top of that, our long dry spell looks like it will finally end toward the end of the week. It's still unclear how much rain will fall, but if we're lucky, it could be substantial. We're also into the season of snow, but so far, 

Let's get into the dailies

REST OF TODAY

 Gorgeous! Wall to wall sunshine and highs well into the 50s. Enjoy!

MONDAY

Another beautiful day for November. Partly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. For comparisons, highs this time of year are normally near 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

More clouds than Monday, especially north, but some sun will filter through at times.  It'll be mild again, with highs up near 60 degrees.

Some showers might come through northern Vermont in the afternoon and evening, but, like the past few episodes, amounts will be very light. If it rains at all, it will amount to only a few hundredth of an inch of rain. 

WEDNESDAY

At this point, it's look partly sunny and balmy. Highs should reach well into the 60s to near 70 degrees.  This might actually threaten sone record highs. We'll need to see any adjustments in the forecast either way to see whether that will happen or not. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

There's a lot of questions as to when rain will arrive and how much.  We might eke out another dry day, but we're not sure yet. There seem to be a  better chance of rain Thursday night. We don't know yet how long the rain will last. 

But it could go into the weekend. It will probably turn colder by then, However, the coldest air will stay far to our north, so it don't look for any low elevation snowstorms just yet. 

Vermont Had Tiny Bit Of Rain Last Night, But Long Dry Spell Rolls On

Clouds increase over Hard'ack Hill in St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday as temperatures rose into the
upper 60s. Cooler today and tomorrow, but
dry weather continues for next several days. 

A tiny bit of rain fell on a few parts of Vermont overnight with the latest cold front, but we still really need the rain.  

Thankfully - so far - drought conditions haven't really worsened, according to the latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, released yesterday. 

Just like the week before, 14 percent of Vermont was in drought and 81 percent of the state was either in drought or abnormally dry, according to the report.  I'm guessing drought conditions worsen more slowly in the late autumn than in the spring and summer. 

Still, things might get worse as very little rain is forecast for the next week. 

Last night's rain was "heavier" than expected in a few spots, but that means there was a few hundredths of an inch of rain instead of sprinkles. Burlington has 0.08 inches overnight. Many other towns had nothing at all. 

Yesterday was also one of the warmest days, if not the warmest day we'll see until next spring. Burlington and Rutland reached 67 degrees. Montpelier was 68 degrees. Springfield reached 70. 

It's cooler today, but we're breaking the trend of each cold front bringing ever more chillier weather. True, today and tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, but not colder than the last chilly day we had earlier in the week. 

We're now back to the routine of dry, sunny days. At least generally. Let's get into the daily forecasts as always. 

TODAY

We started out really mild for this time of year. Most of us started the day with temperatures in the 50s. Since a cold front has just come through, those temperatures won't go anywhere. In some spots, they might fall a little during the day. 

Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest. The skies will be mostly cloudy because of the cool, unstable air coming in. Those clouds could yield some sprinkles in the northern mountains, but that's it. 

The wind and the overall dry conditions are keeping the fire danger high across the state.

SATURDAY

We're back to the usual weather: Sunny, cool and dry. After the typical frosty morning, temperatures will rise to the low 50s by afternoon. Winds will be lighter, too.

SUNDAY

Rinse and repeat. A frosty morning, then a sunny, bright day. It'll be a little warmer than Saturday, with highs well into the 50s.

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather pattern will be slowly trying to break down, but it will take time to do so. 

It'll be dry and relatively mild during the first half of the week. 

By Tuesday. a storm will be causing some rough weather in the middle of the nation. But weather systems will still be gummed up, so it will probably take until the end of the week before we see any rain.

Plus, the computer models always argue over sluggish, weird weather patterns, so we don't know how much rain we'll get or when it will arrive. But we hope it turns out to be a real soaker. We need it. 

Vermont Dry Spell Continues; Wind Increases Fire Risk Today, Tomorrow

The last gold leaves of the season cling to a tree
under yesterday's clouds on Wednesday in St. 
Albans, Vermont. 

Technically the long dry spell ended in Burlington yesterday. 

As expected, almost all the clouds we had Wednesday yielded just virga - which is rain that falls from clouds but dries up on the way down. 

However, a thicker cloud passed over parts of the Champlain Valley toward evening, and that yielded a whopping 0.01 inches of rain on Burlington. In other words, nothing that would change how dry it is out there. 

TODAY

The fire risk is even higher than it has been lately, mostly because the winds will pick up today. We'll get into it a bit. 

Skies have cleared, and we had mostly a blue sky dawn, with a little haze and valley fog. Some places started the day with calm winds, and others, mostly in the Champlain Valley, had somer south winds. 

That has led to a wild range in temperature. At 8 a.m., it was near 30 degrees east of the Green Mountains. Meanwhile, it was 51 degrees in Burlington.  

Temperatures will even out nicely by this afternoon. And it will be a warm one. Possibly the warmest day until next spring. Maybe. Highs should get into the 60s. Maybe 70 degrees in the warmest valleys. 

The real problem is the wind. The humidity remains low, and winds will increase from the south. The fallen leaves are now crispy and dry, and the weeds that grew all summer are dead and dry. We've already had some brush fires this week. With the gusts today, the chances that that fires could get out of hand have gone way up. 

So today's a good day to not thrown your cigarette butt out the window, or do any backyard fires. Be careful out there.

FRIDAY

Another cold front will come through late tonight or very early tomorrow. There might be another sprinkle or two overnight in northern Vermont and in the Green Mountains. But again, nothing to end the dry spell. 

Cold air will be flooding in, but it won't be as cold as the last round. Highs should hold in the 50s. But instability clouds will clutter the skies, and a few sprinkles will dot the northern Green Mountains.  However, any sprinkles won't make a difference. 

It'll be breezy, this time from the west and northwest. So again, fires that start would spread quickly.

SATURDAY

We're back to the pattern we've been in for a couple weeks. The day will start frosty and cold. By afternoon, we should up near 50 degrees, maybe low 50s in the warmer, broader valleys.  Probably wall to wall sunshine, too. 

SUNDAY

Another day, another repeat. Cold and frost to start, with sunshine dominating. There might be a few clouds up there in the sky, but overall, another gorgeous day.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs up in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather will continue well into the week. The weather pattern will eventually change, but it will be slow to untangle. It still looks like it might finally rain - really rain - toward the end of the week, but it's hard to promise anything yet. The computer models are still arguing fiercely with each other over this. Vernon

Back To The Constant Sunshine In Vermont After Monday Clouds

It actually rained a little in St. Albans, Vermont 
Monday. Just a little. But it's back to the dry weather 
through next weekend. Perhaps a few light rain
showers Thursday night north, but that's it. 

 If you are somehow sick of sunshine, you must have enjoyed yesterday, unless you are in southern Vermont, where the sun stayed out for at least a decent part of the day. 

Far northern Vermont actually had a little rain during the day. Enough to dampen the ground. 

Here in St. Albans, we actually measured 0.03 inches of rain. Burlington had a trace - nothing measurable - so officially, the dry spell there goes on. 

This morning, we were back to the same routine. As dawn broke, skies were clear, temperatures statewide were below freezing.  

This clear sky trend will continue for the next few days, at least generally. But signs are pointing toward this sunny stretch ending, eventually. 

TODAY

As expected, the sun will stay out all day under blue skies. It'll be chilly, with temperatures holding the 40s. A steady north breeze will make it feel even chillier. Super dry air will make things feel especially crisp. 

WEDNESDAY

We're sticking with the forecast for a frigid start to the day, with lows across Vermont still expected to be mostly between 18 to 25 degrees. But the sunshine will draw afternoon temperatures back into the comfortable 50s. 

It might not be completely sunny. A weak disturbance looks like it might thrown some high clouds our way. Still absolutely no rain, though. 

THURSDAY

Another chilly start, another sunny day. Southwest winds will bring temperatures up to the low and mid 60s. This is a day we might have to really watch the fire danger. The dry spell, and all the fallen leaves, have raised the fire danger. The winds could spread any fires that start, so be particular careful. 

The next cold front is scheduled to come through Thursday night. It'll be very similar to yesterday's. Maybe, just maybe it'll have a tiny bit more oomph to it. That means northern parts of the state could eg a few paltry hundredths of an inch of rain. Probably nothing further south. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

The next big, fat high pressure system comes in. As a sign that this pattern might eventually break down, this big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big, quite as fat as the last few. Still, it will ensure more sunny skies.

It'll be a little cooler, but perhaps not as cool as today. We'll be back to subfreezing mornings and highs in the 50s. Same conditions on Saturday. Sunday could be a little warmer, with readings maybe in the upper 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At first, we might be in a battle zone between a last big, fat high pressure from Canada and a storm coming up from the southwest. This would be our best chance of rain since mid-month. It won't be huge, and there's still a chance the high pressure could deflect the storm to our south. So stay tuned.

If that misses us, we have a shot at another rain late in the week.  

Actual Clouds Out There In Vermont Today Before Wall to Wall Sunshine Returns.

For a change, the remaining golden leaves on the trees
this morning were not lit up by sunshine. A weak 
cold front is creating clouds in Vermont, but
much more clear weather is on the way. 

Well, Sunday was as awesome as predicted. Wall to wall sunshine once again.  

Temperatures were remarkably uniform - all the reporting stations in Vermont had highs between 62 to 65 degrees. That's a little warmer than average. Just beautiful. 

The dry air is still locked in, so despite the warm weather yesterday, it still got below freezing last night, at least east of the Green Mountains. 

Today will be a transition day between the warmth and a temporary leap toward really nippy weather. Let's get into it. 

TODAY 

We have an interruption in the long spell of sunshine, but it won't last long. The weak cold front is coming in and it definitely has clouds with it. More so than another, weaker cold front last Thursday. 

But don't count on any real rain. Radar shows a band of showers across southern Quebec, including through Montreal.  The band was sinking south toward Vermont, but weakening as it did so. 

During the later morning and early afternoon, some of those showers look like they might hang in there, a little. The dry air is wrecking the rain, drying it up as it falls. That means maybe sprinkles in the northern Vermont valleys, and perhaps a few hundredth of an inch on northern Vermont mountain summits. 

The temperature forecast is a little tricky today, which is a change from previous days. When nothing is happening, it's easy to forecast temperatures. It's a reason why yesterday's temperatures exactly matched previous forecasts. 

But today, with a cold front coming through in the middle of the day, and variable clouds, there's room for error in the forecast. The National Weather Service is going for high in the 50s north, 60s north. 

TUESDAY

Another in a series of big, fat high pressure systems from Canada will be moving in. The cold air will already be in place when we get up in the morning. We'll start the day with temperatures in the 20s, maybe a couple low 30s in the warmer valleys. 

North breezes on the front side of the high will keep us quite chilly tomorrow. Highs will be only in the 40s, maybe a couple low 50s in the warmer valleys south. We'll be back to wall-to-wall sunshine again. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll start the day with the coldest morning of the year so far. Temperatures at dawn will range between 18 and 25 degrees for most of us. So yes, definitely chilly. But we're back to the same pattern we've been in. By afternoon, the combination of sun and dry air will bring us up into the low and mid 50s by afternoon.

THURSDAY

The same weather pattern continues. Like the last two big, fat high pressure systems, this one will weaken and sink to our south. That means warmer southwest breezes will bring us back up to near 60 degrees by afternoon. After another subfreezing morning, of course. Sunshine will prevail, of course. 

FRIDAY

Yet another in our long series of big, fat high pressure systems will come in after another weak cold front. Maybe accompanied by a few light showers again, but don't count on it. But the weather pattern is finally showing signs of ending. This big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big and fat as the previous ones. 

Still, it will be a rinse and repeat situation of what we've seen for the past couple of weeks. 

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

As we always insist, long range forecasts are always iffy. But after next weekend, it's beginning to look like we'll have some chances of rain finally coming in. We need it, so we'll definitely welcome it if it happens. 

 

Wall-To-Wall Sunshine Continues In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

Another gorgeous day in Vermont Saturday as seen here in 
South Burlington. More of the same today. 

The wall to wall sunshine continues, as Vermont's long dry spell continues. Yesterday was clear. Today will be clear. Mostly. We'll get into it in a bit.  

The very dry air ensures we have cold nights and warm days. Again, most of the time, anyway. 

After a cold morning Saturday, the sunshine brought temperatures right back up into the 50s.  Winds were light, so it was particularly pleasant. 

I started the day freezing in fleece and then by afternoon, I was down to a black t-shirt doing fall cleanup in the sun.

Then, by dawn this morning, everybody in Vermont was down in the 20s.  Temperatures will continue to yoyo, thanks to continued dry air and a cold front. 

TODAY

Those cold morning lows today were quickly being erased by the sunshine.  The big fat high pressure that was over us yesterday is a little weaker to our south, which means we'll see some light southwest winds. That will boost temperatures to near 60. With low to mid 60s in the warmer valleys. 

Because the air mass has warmed up, tonight won't be quite as cold as last night. Most of us will be in the 30s for lows. 

MONDAY

There's actually a chance of rain. Sort of. In spots. The next cold front is due during the day Monday. The air ahead of the cold front will be dry. The air behind the front will be dry. So there's no real supply of moisture to set off showers, like most cold fronts produce. 

The front might be able to grab the tiny bits of moisture in the air to set off some very light showers, mainly over the northern Green Mountains. In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted some computer models produce up to 0.05 inches of rain in some northern mountains. 

But with so much dry air, that 0.05 inches seems generous, the NWS says. More likely, a little rain might come out of the clouds, dampen some rocks on mountain summits. Then the rain will dry up in the air before reaching the valleys. 

Just to be on the safe side, the National Weather Service has a 20 to 30 percent chance of a light shower in northern Vermont. It will be cloudier than recent days. The front will be coming in from the north, so it'll  hold daytime temperatures up there in the 50s. Southern Vermont will be sunnier, and in the 60s 

TUESDAY

As I mentioned yesterday, the next big, fat high pressure system comes in, colder than the previous one. Despite another day of basically wall to wall sunshine, it's going to be much colder. Highs will be in the 40s, with maybe a few low 50s in warmer southern valleys.

Since this is colder air, get ready for a very cold Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYONDThe 

There's actually a chance that a few places in Vermont could have near record low, though the chances of that are iffy.  Montpelier's expected low is 20 degrees Wednesday morning, and the record low for the date is 19. 

Elsewhere. record lows are unlikely.  Burlington's expected low Wednesday is 25, the record low is 19.  St. Johnsbury is expecting a lot Wednesday morning of 19, the record low is 13.

We'll check later for updates to see if forecasters lower the expected minimum temperatures. By Wednesday afternoon, it will warm up to the mid-50s again. 

The big fat high pressure system will eventually make us mild again, with highs in the low 60s. That high will eventually go off to the east, possibly followed by another one next week. 

Through today, we will have gone nine consecutive days with no measurable precipitation That's not anywhere remotely close the record. In the spring of 1903, Burlington went 53 days without measurable rain. 

 

Relentless Clear Skies Lead To Very Nippy Vermont Morning, Much More Sunshine To Come

A few golden maple leaves were still clinging to the trees
 in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday as cool, breezy
and very dry weather continued.

 As expected, it was arguably the coldest morning of the autumn so far in Vermont.  

It looks like pretty much everyone in Vermont at dawn today was in the 20s.  I imagine the coldest hollows were in the teens. 

For example, Morrisville got down to 19 degrees, and I'm sure there were a few similar readings in the Northeast Kingdom. Burlington was down to 28, its coldest morning of the year so far. Barely. It was 29 degrees Thursday and Friday. 

The big fat high pressure system is sitting right over us today. That means clear skies and light winds for today. There were a few high clouds in southern Vermont this morning, but those should thin out even more as we go through the day. 

The sun is at a low angle but still strong enough to warm us up into the 50s. Dry air allows the sun to warm the air quickly. 

The light winds mean there also won't be as much of a bite to the air, either.  

I know this is getting boring, but bear with me. Every day is sunny, the weather just doesn't change, except for some variations in temperature. 

Anyway, as I noted, beyond today, we have plenty of sunshine, really chapped lips dry weather coming up for pretty. At least it's been easy to forecast. We've covered today, so let's get into the next few days. 

SUNDAY

Our big, fat high pressure system that's overhead today will begin to sink to the south and weaken a little. The end result will be another delightful day. I'll be below freezing again first thing in the morning. Then, with light southwest winds, temperatures will rise to the low 60s, which is absolutely beautiful ro this time year. 

It'll be another day of wall-to-wall sunshine, aside from some possible high, thin clouds late in the day. 

MONDAY

Another cold front will arrive, very much like the one we had on Thursday. That means a bunch of clouds will come in - we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will go from light southerly to light northerly. High temperatures will depend on how many clouds come in, and when the cold front arrives. 

Dry air ahead of and behind the cold front means almost no rain. Unlike Saturday, there is a low chance of sprinkles or light showers, but it won't exactly be any real rain. n 

Forecasters are going for highs of around 60 degrees. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The next in a series of big, fat high pressure system will drift in from south central Canada. This one will likely be even a little stronger than the one that's sitting overhead today. Each one of these has been a little colder than the last. That'll probably happen this time, too. We're getting closer and closer to winter. We have to expect that, right?

Tuesday's highs look like they'll stay in the 40s, so a little cooler than yesterday, for comparison. After a frigid Wednesday morning, we'll warm up again. Not to toasty levels, just more comfortable again.  

Beyond that, you can't always count on forecast being right this far in advance. But early indications point to another cold front, again with very light rain or none at all, with another big, fat, high pressure system of clear, dry air to follow. 

I don't know when this weather pattern will break down. A week ago, I thought it would be around October 30. Now, it maybe looks like we'll wait until November 3 or 4 before noticeable precipitation falls. Who knows? Maybe it'll get postponed again. 

But this nice weather can't last forever. And we need the rain. Or snow, since we're talking November by the time any substantial storm tries to come through. 

Back To Rare, Long Stretch Of Blue Vermont Skies Through Weekend. Maybe Beyond?

Sunshine filters through lingering golden maple leaves
on trees yesterday morning in St. Albans, Vermont. A 
long, weird sunny spell will continue in the state
for several more days. 

What was that in the sky yesterday? 

Yeah, they were clouds as a new push of cool air blobbed its way into Vermont yesterday. 

Vermont is among the cloudiest places in the United States, especially as we get later and later into autumn.

 But you'd never know it. Days of sunshine before a period of clouds yesterday, then, coming up, another long string of blue sky days. 

Ominously, it hasn't rained in six days, and the dry weather is now looking like it will probably last through most of next week. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation continues to warn of a high fire danger today. And most likely beyond. 

Here's the usual daily details of the forecast.

TODAY

As advertised, the air has gotten cooler today. For now.  We started this morning with sunrise temperatures within a few degrees either side of 30.  With north breezes continuing, highs will only reach to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. Other than the chance of a few small stratocumulus clouds, the sky should stay blue all day. 

SATURDAY

It continues to appear we'll have the coldest morning of the year across Vermont. Morning lows statewide should be in the 20s. Actually, we'll see  low to mid 20s in many towns away from the Champlain Valley. A few of the coldest mountain valleys could touch the upper teens. 

But be patient. Dry air heats up a lot faster than humid air when the sun is out. This is chapped lips dry air With light winds, because the big, fat high pressure system will be pretty much right tier head. Highs should get into the 50s, which is pretty normal for this time of year. 

SUNDAY 

What goes up must go down when the air is dry.  At night, dry air cools off faster than wetter air. So it'll be back below freezing when dawn breaks on Sunday.  But the big, fat high pressure system should be sinking a little to our south. 

That means we'll have light south to southwest winds, enough to boost our temperatures to around 60 degrees, give or take. So, this Sunday will be virtually a carbon copy of last Sunday. 

MONDAY

The next cold front comes in. The air ahead of, and behind the front will be very dry. Again. So we'll probably have something like we did yesterday.  Clouds will come in. This time, there might be a few isolated, inconsequential sprinkles. But no real rain. Winds will shift from light south to light northerly. 

How warm it gets depends on when the front arrives. For now, it looks like it could get to 60 degrees or so. That's an early guess.

REST OF WEEK

Yet another big, fat high pressure system will move in from southern Canada, so we'll go through the same routine we're going through right now.  Tuesday will be chilly, even nippier than today will be. As the cool air rushes in, winds will probably pick up, increasing the already high fire danger.

Then it will warm up a little during the rest of the week. Under those relentlessly sunny skies. 

Despite the dry weather, the sunny skies are quite a break from our usually overcast skies.  But remember, no great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We'll pay for this with lots of storminess, eventually. 

Especially with a super El Nino raging in the Pacific Ocean. 

Clear Skies Continue In Vermont; Cooler, Gusty Winds, Then Clear, Calm Again; Things Really Drying Out

Another clear day yesterday, but the foliage in Vermont
is well past peak, fading to yellow and rust colored
hues, as seen Wednesday in St. Albans. 

 We had another crystal clear day Wednesday, the third day in a row of such weather. It was almost the fourth day, but there were just a few high clouds on Sunday, but it was basically wall to wall sunshine then, too. 

This very dry air means there's a daily big range between high and low temperatures. Normally, this time of year, the range between low and high temperatures is 16 degrees. 

So far this week, the daily range has been between 24 and 38 degrees. This cold morning/pleasant afternoons pattern will continue through the weekend, with maybe an asterisk or two. 

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon were about there same as on Thursday. But it was less breezy, so it felt warmer. The wind is going to pick up again, so grab that fleece for the next couple of days.

DROUGHT

The dry weather is  on concerning, of course. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning. Rainfall between October 11 and 16 reduced the size of the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. 

As of this morning's report, 14 percent of the state was in drought, compared to 41 percent the week before. But about 82 percent of the state is still either abnormally dry or in drought. I'm sure this will increase with next week's report, since no rain is expected. 

Let's get into the daily forecasts:  

TODAY

The first half of today will be a carbon copy of yesterday. We started the day below freezing statewide once again. Sunshine will make temperatures rise into the 50s. But, as we've been tracking for days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air is on our doorstep. 

Usually, this means a cold front with showers. But the air is so dry that we'll just end up with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. There might be extra clouds in the northern mountains. But no rain or snow flurries. 

Highs will probably be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. North winds will pick up this afternoon and evening, too, so you will feel the chill in the air. 

FRIDAY

The morning will start out  as cold or even colder than recent mornings. Lows most places will be in the 20s, with a smattering of low 20s in some of the deeper valleys. Under clear skies once again, it'll warm up rapidly. But it won't get as warm as recent days. Readings will peak within a few degrees of 50. 

SATURDAY

Yet another clear day. People with solar panels on their roofs must be loving this. The big, fat high pressure system that was over us yesterday and today will be gone. It will be replaced by an even  bigger, fatter high pressure system pretty much smack dab over us. 

We'll have the coldest morning of the year so far. Lows in most of Vermont will be between 20 and 25 degrees. Maybe some upper teens in the cold spots, upper 20s close to Lake Champlain. 

Winds will be pretty calm all day, and highs will get into the 50s. 

SUNDAY

More of the same. The big, fat high pressure will sink a little to our south, setting up a slight southwest breeze. So, we'll start the day below freezing again, but warm up to near 60 degrees. So, really nice!

MONDAY

Another reinforcing shot of cold air begins to arrive, with another very weak cold front. This one might actually be "strong" enough to produce a sprinkle. In a few spots. Maybe. Depending on the timing of the front, we might eke out a fairly warm day. For now, forecasters are calling for a high of 60 degrees.

Following that, another big, fat high pressure system. The long dry spells continues. 

Clear Weather Continues In Vermont, But We've Also Flipped To Cooler Air

Another crystal clear late autumn day yesterday in
St. Albans, Vermont. More of the same is coming
up over the next few days, but it will become 
a little cooler late week. 

 Monday and Tuesday were a great example of how two consecutive days can look exactly the same if you look out the window, but feel different if you walk outdoors. 

Monday here in Vermont was clear, balmy and calm, with highs in the 60s. Skies on Tuesday were crystal clear, too. 

But the air was cooler and there was a stiff northerly breeze. It was still a gorgeous day, but the air had a slight bite to it, especially if you were in the shade and exposed to those north winds.

The joys of autumn

This long stretch of sunny weather will continue, but it will get even cooler for the next few days. Big fat high pressure systems with dry weather and sunshine now look like they could continue over northern New England until Halloween. 

As always, let's get into the details

TODAY

Given the fact that Tuesday was cooler, it make sense that this morning was chillier than the night before, too. Most places in Vermont started the day in the mid and upper 20s.  Even the Champlain Valley was solidly on the frosty side. Burlington reported a low temperature this morning of 30. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at 18, ,which is the nippiest temperature we've seen around the region so far this autumn. 

We'll end up with highs this afternoon in the 50s, very similar to yesterday. The winds should be a little lighter than yesterday, so there might not be as much of a wind chill. 

Skies should once again be pretty much crystal clear or close to it. 

THURSDAY

We've been expecting a reinforcing shot of cooler air to come in, and that's still on the table. We'll start the day similar to this morning, with frost and freezes in most places. During the later morning and afternoon, north winds will pick up and temperatures will hold in the low the mid 50s. 

Though there will be a fair amount of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys, some clouds will come through, too. That's 'because the new shot of cool air will be led by a very weak cold front that will herald its arrival.

Since it's been so dry, and there's so many dried out fallen leaves on the ground now, we'll have to worry a little about brush and forest fires, since the wind would help push around anything that starts. So be careful out there!

FRIDAY

The coolest day of the week. You'll notice it! Another big, fat, high pressure system will slowly sink southward from Quebec. It'll be another chapped lip day, with very low humidity and lots of bright sunshine. North breezes will continue but will tend to diminish in the afternoon. 

Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. Call it mid-40s way up in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont hill towns to mid-50s in the lower Connecticut River Valley

SATURDAY

We'll start with probably the coldest morning of the year so far. Pretry much all of us will be in the 20s, with some teens possibly showing up in the coldest mountain valleys. The day will be clear once again with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s,  Maybe some upper 50s in the warmest souther valleys

All this is courtesy of the big, fat high pressure system which will probably be right on top of us. 

SUNDAY

We do it again. Cold morning, milder afternoon under lots of sunshine. It'll be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEXT WEEK

Still kind of more of the same. Much like this week, Monday will be the mildest day of the week with temperatures up near 60 under sunny skies. A very weak cold front will introduce yet another big, fat, cool, dry, sunny high pressure system. 

The cold front on Tuesday might through a few clouds at us, with perhaps a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry, but that's really iffy. The sunny, dry weather will continue for a couple days. Now we're in the long range, so it gets uncertain. It's possible another cold front would come through late in the week with slightly more noticeable showers, but that remains to be seen. 

 The pattern still looks mostly dry at least until we get into the first few days of November. 

Monday Weather Over-Performed In Vermont Gorgeousness. Rest Of Week Provides Sun And A Cool Down

Autumn leaves on the trees glowed in the late afternoon 
sun in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday. The
sunshine will continue all week, but grab the fleece
and sweaters. It will turn a little cooler. 

 Usually when I say the weather "over-performed" in Vermont, it means the storm was worse than expected. 

Yesterday was quite the opposite. The weather was definitely an over-performer, but decidedly on the gorgeous side. 

It was blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, as expected. But that sun had a little more oomph to it than forecast. It got warm. Burlington reached 67 degrees, compared to the forecast high of 63.

Montpelier also reached 67 degrees. St. Johnsbury and Bennington were close at 66 degrees. Rutland was even warmer at 69. You get the picture. Monday was an absolutely delight. 

The "heat wave" is now over, and a week-long cooling trend has started. But as long as you grab a sweater or some fleece, the rest of the week will be fantastic to view any lingering foliage under the sunshine, or to get going on autumn yard cleanup. As alway's we'll get into the details next.

TODAY

With such dry air in place, it was inevitable this morning would be chilly. (Dry air does not hold the heat at night nearly as much as humid air). Most of us started the day in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the cold spots. Highs under the sunshine today will be in the mid and upper 50s, with a few low 60s in a couple spots in the Champlain Valley and valleys in southern parts of the state.

We'll have a slight breeze from the north today, which is a switch from the southerly breezes we saw yesterday. 

WEDNESDAY

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. A chilly, frosty morning yielding to high in the 55 to 62 degree range under the afternoon sunshine. 

THURSDAY

This is when that stalled storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast starts to make its move northeastward, further out to sea. That motion will help pull down a reinforcing push of cooler air. The north breezes will he a little stronger than then were earlier in the week. 

The reinforcement of the cool air might help create a vague cold front, which could produce a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle in a couple spots. But there will be sunshine, too. Highs will reach the 50s again. 

FRIDAY

The computer models that had earlier suggested a very cold day have relaxed. But it will be the chilliest day of the week nonetheless. Big, fat high pressure will be just to our north and west, dominating the vast province of Quebec and eastern Ontario. We'll have cool northerly breezes. 

Under sunny skies, highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

By Friday, we'll have to start worrying about brush fire risks. The air will have been incredibly dry all week. Those fallen leaves will have dried out, too.  This will not be the week to burn away that brush pile sitting in the back 40.

SATURDAY

We'll start off really cold. There's a decent chance it'll be the coldest morning so far this autumn, with lows right down there in the 20s. Maybe a few low 30s right by Lake Champlain. At this point, it's too late to worry about saving gardens anyway. If you're still covering up your plants, good for you, but the effort has probably gotten Sisyphean. 

The day will be another sunny, cool one. This is a little long range so subject to change. At this point, though, it looks like highs should be in the 50s, with maybe some upper 40s in some northern Vermont hill towns. 

SUNDAY

Sunny and a little warmer. Highs in the 50s to around 60s. The brush and woodland fire risk will continue through the weekend. Thankfully, winds will be on the light side, which means fires might not spread too rapidly. Still, this weekend will definitely not be the one to play with matches, or be careless with your campfire or cigarettes. 

NEXT WEEK

The stalled weather pattern with the big, fat high pressure systems sitting over or near us should finally start to break down. Our next chance of any precipitation is probably later Tuesday. It's hard to say how much we'll get, but at this point, the rainfall next Tuesday night or Wednesday or thereabouts looks pretty lame. 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28

A Blustery Monday To Be Followed By A Blustery Day Today, Frost Tonight, A Dry Vermont Foliage Week Ahead

Gusty winds and scattered showers (you can see a 
billowing shower cloud upper right) greeted 
Vermonters Monday. The photo looks pleasant,
but the gusty winds felt awfully chilly. 

By Vermont standards, Monday's air wasn't really cold at all. It was in the 50s with a stiff west winds. But Henry the weather dog ended up shivering at the dog park in the afternoon, and I was shivering just as much. 

It was the coolest day we've had this autumn, and it felt it. 

Tis the season. 

The showers that got going Monday morning and afternoon formed in cold enough air to drop small hail in towns like Montgomery and Fairfax and others. The winds were gusty for sure. 

Burton Island had gusts to 41 mph, Colchester Reef saw 39 mph and 30 to 35 mph at numerous locations. 

Get used to the wind.  Winter is much, much windier than summer. Winter is coming.  So if you don't want the wind to wreck your hairdo, you're in for a very, very several months. 

The wind will keep blowing today, but not as hard as it did yesterday. Here are the details: 

TODAY

Clouds still covered northern Vermont this morning. The south was clear. Sunshine will increase during the day and those northwest winds will continue to gust. Maybe not as much as yesterday, but you'll notice. The air will turn dry, too. The humidity will be low enough for to issue a Chap Stick weather alert.  

Highs today will be in the low and mid 50s.  

If you missed out on freezing temperatures last night, chances are you'll see them tonight. There's a frost advisory for all of the Champlain Valley, including the islands. Though Lake Champlain might protect many places on the islands from the frost. 

Another saving grace that might protect some gardens in the Champlain is the first stirrings of south winds as the cold high pressure system starts to pass to the east. But don't count on it. If you didn't take your sensitive plants in yesterday and they survived last night, take them in tonight. If you don't this might be the last time you see them. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, a frost is almost guaranteed. There's no frost or freeze advisories in Vermont away from Lake Champlain because it's considered past the growing season. 

REST OF THE WEEK

A persistent pattern featuring a west to northwest wind flow will continue all week, keeping us mostly dry. This pattern will block any real moisture from coming our way. 

On the bright side, it's great for Vermont and the foliage season. Tourists will continue to swarm the state. Hopefully future will be plenty of colorful, dying leaves to keep them happy. 

On the negative side, the developing drought in much of Vermont could get worse.  Any rain we receive will be super light and brief. We need a drenching. We won't be getting anything like that anytime soon. 

Tomorrow

A warm front passing through in the morning will produce some clouds and maybe some sprinkles.  Sunshine should break through in the afternoon. It'll be warmer, with highs near 60. 

Thursday

A cold front will approach with another batch of scattered showers. Any rain that does arrive won't amount to much. It'll be mild ahead of the front with highs hopefully in the 60s. 

Friday-Sunday

Cool again, with highs in the 50s to near 60.  Some clouds might linger during parts of Friday but it will generally be sunny both days, At least as it looks  now. We'll also probably have some frosty and foggy early mornings, too.  

Sunday looks like it might be sunny, too. And warmer. Forecasts could change, but this looks like it will be a fantastic leaf peeping week. 

 

Chilly Morning In Vermont; Even Colder Start To The New Week. Garden Killer?

These vibrant flowers in my window boxes in St.
Albans, Vermont might not be so vibrant after the
upcoming cold weather Monday and Tuesday. 

OK, Saturday was just perfect in Vermont. Deep blue skies, crisp air, gorgeous foliage. Probably the best autumn weather day of the year. 

As expected, we had a clear, cold night in Vermont, typical for early October. Most places saw a dawn with temperatures in the 30s. A few spots in western Vermont were in the 40s. In those places, the first stirrings of some south winds flushed some of the cool air out. 

TODAY

Today, the south winds will pick up. High clouds will increase, too, but it will still be a nice day. Highs will get into the 60s. So if you missed yesterday, you still have a decent day today. 

Then we get into hard core autumn tomorrow with a slight hint of winter. 

MONDAY

Our cold, blustery cold front is still on schedule for Monday morning. It might have some light showers near and along it, but that's not the story. It'll come through in the morning, and by afternoon, we'll know that autumn is getting serious. 

Temperatures during the day will stay steady or fall through the 50s. Winds will pick up from the northwest, gusting to 30 or 35 mph in spots. Leaves will fly through the air, the temperature will drop. There could even be a snowflake or two at the mountain summits.

 It won't exactly be wintry, but close enough. The weather will have a bite to it. Or, depending on your attitude toward winter, it will just bite. 

Do your emergency frost harvests in the gardens, and take in your sensitive plants for the upcoming winter. 

I'm getting all dramatic here, but in the grand scheme of things, this isn't all that unusual. We do get these early October cold snaps from time to time. We're not used to it, given our recent warm Octobers. 

It's been far worse this time of year. A large, damaging snowstorm hit large parts of Vermont and New York on this date in 1987. In 1965, Burlington's high temperatures on October 4 and 5 were in the 30s. So yes, it could be much tougher than what we're predicting for Monday and Tuesday. 

TUESDAY

The day will start cold, but not the typical calm, frosty start we often see this time of year. The wind will have kept blowing all night. Some areas will wake up to a freeze, one that is virtually frost-freeze but most certainly still a garden killer. 

The rest of the day will be quite cool, but calmer than Monday. And sunnier. Highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Tuesday night will feature calm winds, clear skies and cold temperatures. Most places in Vermont should get to near or below freezing. Some areas right near Lake Champlain will probably escape the frost. But, for the most part, those of us who haven't had our first frost of the season.

REST OF WEEK

It'll be a quiet period with generally partly to mostly sunny daytimes, with seasonable highs in the low to mid 60s.  The only chance of rain might come at the end of the week, with light, isolated showers as a lame little disturbances comes through. 

That's great news for the leaf peepers vacationing in Vermont. Or for those of us who like to drive the back roads this time of year to look at the foliage. In some years, big storms strip the foliage from the trees, cutting short the best of the season. Not this year. 

Foliage season will eventually end, but not this week. 

Stubborn Clouds Stay Over Vermont, A Sign Of Season; Brief Warmup, Then Autumn Chill To Flood In

Low clouds and fog yesterday hung on all day in much
of Vermont yesterday, and that gray gloom has lasted
into today. The hope is that fog will finally break
up later this morning or early afternoon 

We woke up in Vermont this morning to the same low overcast and fog we've endured for the past two or three days.  

Clearing has been repeatedly delayed. It's because a temperature inversion has trapped dense moisture near the ground. Get used to it. The waning, weakening autumn sun is less and less able to disrupt these inversions.  

So the fog and gray clouds remain. This phenomenon is a big reason why November and December are almost always overcast. 

It's the last day of September. The sun isn't at the same angle as it was in June. But not as lame as December. The sun should be able to break our current inversion. Albeit much later than forecast. A couple of days ago, we thought the sun would come out yesterday afternoon. 

Obviously, we're still waiting. So, what is going to happen?

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is insisting the low clouds, fog and drizzle will finally break up late this morning or this afternoon.  We hope. A layer of drier air aloft is getting thicker, stronger. That should help gradually flush out the drizzly gray atmosphere. 

Once and if the low clouds break up, it won't 'get all nice and sunny. The moisture stream from thunderstorms across the southwestern United States from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. This moisture is high above the dry layer that meteorologists hope will flush out the low clouds.

The end result would be finally become a brighter day once we get into the afternoon. But the sun would be dimmed by high and mid level clouds.  It's iffy, but the thinking is the low clouds will dissipate soon enough so that temperatures will still be able to reach near 70 degrees. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the low clouds will break up as forecast, but there's always hope. 

THURSDAY

This part of the forecast hasn't 'changed much since yesterday. It'll be warm and humid, thanks to those Hurricane Polo remnants. It also won't be a clear, sunny day, though the sun will be out on and off. We'll call it partly sunny. Highs will reach the low and mid 70s, with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

A couple showers might show up in the far north in the later afternoon, but don't necessarily count on it raining. 

FRIDAY

After a fairly muggy night for early October, a cold front will approach and come through on Friday. On the bright side, the front will have grabbed a little bit of moisture from the Hurricane Polo remnants.  The bad news is the front will be stretching out and moving fast. It won't have time to drop much rain on us. Too bad, because we need it. 

The end result will probably be about a quarter inch of rain, give or take. 

Temperatures and humidity will depend on when the front comes in. It will probably feel a little warm and humid amid the showers for at least part of the day before much cooler and drier air comes in. 

SATURDAY

Hopefully, a classic early October Vermont day. Early morning patch fog (again!) should burn off into sunshine. Highs should reach somewhere around the low 60s, give or take as it looks now. Basically a foliage season day sponsored by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Watch out for frost again Saturday night and early Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, rain chances have diminished a lot compared to earlier forecasts. THere's still a chance of scattered lights showers, especially later in the day, but don't hold your breath. We'll also have some sun and seasonable temperatures in the 60s All in all, an OK day. 

EARLY WEEK

Initial indications give us the risk of a hard freeze early next week.  Details aren't available yet, so we'll want to stay tuned. 

Tuesday Vermont Forecast: Clearing Will Be Very Reluctant, But Nice Days Coming

Fall colors hinting around my house and dying flower
gardens signal the arrival of October this week. 
Gloomy weather should last much of today,
but much warmer weather by tomorrow, Thursday. 

The gloom and drizzle and light rain we had yesterday actually felt good, at least to me. 

The fall colors popped out brightly in the gray atmosphere. Between showers, it was nice to do a little fall cleanup outside without a hot sun blasting down on me.  

Looking ahead, there are a few changes to the forecast since yesterday, as is often the case, especially in the autumn.

TODAY

Today, the dreary weather will be very reluctant to leave. More reluctant than we thought yesterday. It looks like there might be some clearing in southern Vermont, away from the Green Mountains. 

But in general, don't expect much sun. If there is any real sun, it won't come until later in the day.  It also probably won't rain,  aside from some drizzle mixed with the fog this morning. 

The clouds will tend to be low and thick, so you won't see the mountaintops. Today is not the day to hike to summits for an expansive view of the fall foliage. 

With the clouds, high temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

WEDNESDAY

This part of the forecast has not changed since yesterday. The sun will come out,  though there might be quite a few high clouds. The sun should be able to break through that, though. Southerly winds should bring temperatures to near 70 degrees. 

In a hint of what's coming the next day, the air will begin to feel vaguely humid during the afternoon, but still not so bad.

THURSDAY

Another warm day. And humid. Thanks in part to of all things, Hurricane Polo, which smashed ashore in Mexico's Baja California early this morning. The remnants of the hurricane should be near El Paso, Texas of all places by noon tomorrow. Humid Pacific air will flow far to the north of that.  High pressure off the East Coast will also direct humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. 

The result might well be our last summer day of the year. (Though with El Nino raging, we could have a surprise warm day later in October, who knows?)  

Highs should get into the 70s, and dew points should get into the low and mid 60s. So those autumn foliage hikes might turn a little sweaty. 

Winds should pick up, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. It won't wreck the fall foliage, especially since the Champlain Valley is still generally green. 

FRIDAY

This will be another in a series of instances in which Vermont just misses out on a soaking rain. The remnants of Hurricane Polo will create a huge area with a risk of flooding in the United States. The flood potential  encompassing an enormous zone including all of Arizona and Mexica, along with southern Utah, then heading eastward into Texas and northeastward all the way to Illinois.  

Here in Vermont, despite the increased moisture from Hurricane Polo, and the humidity that will be in place, an approaching cold front won't give us all that much rain, at least as it looks now.  Heavy rain associated with the dead hurricane won't take it this far northeast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we might see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rain. Not sure if we'll actually get that, but we will take anything we can get. 

The front was originally scheduled to come through early Friday, giving us a nice, cool day. Now, it looks like it will come through during the day, keeping us mostly under the clouds. 

WEEKEND

We might eke out a nice Saturday, with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We have another chance of some showers Sunday.  It's a long way off, but so far, at least, it does not look like we'll see much rain. 

Nor'easter A Shadow Of Its Former Self, Will Spread Light Rain Across Vermont One Last Day

Not much color in the trees in back of my house just
yet, but color is increasing across Vermont. Despite 
today's gloom, we'll have some very nice foliage
viewing weather starting later Tuesday. 

Our huge nor'easter this morning was a little south of Long Island this morning. But it's not the mighty, destructive storm it was over the weekend.  

Instead, its a shadow of its former self, now staggering northeast, through New England today as a weak, remnant low. 

The now-weak storm continues to fling showers east to west across Vermont and that state of affairs will continue today. 

So far, rainfall has been modest almost everywhere. Even in southeast Vermont, rainfall has been disappointingly light. 

Through early Sunday afternoon, even most of Windham County, in the southeast corner of Vermont had only received generally a half inch of rain. 

Only some towns closest to the Massachusetts and Massachusetts border had more than an inch. More rain did fall in southeast Vermont during the later afternoon and last night

Central Vermont did benefit from some persistent bands of rain.  Montpelier had nearly a half inch of rain through early this morning. Burlington  had 0.27 inches through 7 a.m.. Not much but decent. 

Far northwestern Vermont, as expected, missed out. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans had collected just 0.06 inches of rain. 

Let's get into the forecast details

TODAY

A somewhat raw, definitely cloudy day. Those showers will keep rotating through, east to west, backwards from the pattern we usually see. 

Much like the storm so far, southeast Vermont gets the most. Forecasters insist Windham County will get another half inch or more of rain. Central Vermont would get a quarter to a half inch. Northwest Vermont gets less than a quarter inch, with less than a tenth of an inch in the far northwest. 

Under the clouds and showers, temperatures will stay in the 55 to 65 degree range.

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with clouds and patchy fog. During the afternoon, some sun will break out, especially in the broader valleys. Highs should reach the 60s

WEDNESDAY

This will be the start of a gorgeous period if you want to go out leaf peeping.  The Northeast Kingdom will be at peak during the second half of this week and color is popping nicely elsewhere in the state. Under partly sunny skies highs should reach to within a few degrees either side of 70.

THURSDAY

October arrives with partly sunny skies with highs getting well into the 70s,  Chances are it will be the warmest day we've seen in the past couple weeks. . Burlington is expecting a high temperature of 77 degrees, compared to a record high for the date of 80 degrees.

This could well be the warmest day of this October, as the weather pattern is going to turn chillier. Thursday might also feel a bit humid as dew points reach the low 60s. Kind of sticky for this late in the season. 

FRIDAY

An early morning cold front will bring in more traditional crisp autumn air. The front will probably produce a few showers, but we'll be lacking the needed rain.  Skies should clear up, especially north. Highs should be in the seasonable 60s. 

SATURDAY

Still iffy at this point, but signs so far point toward more sunshine, especially if high pressure to our north and west holds firm. It will be another cool day with highs in the low 60s. At least that's the early guess

SUNDAY

It might rain a little. We're not sure yet, but if we do receive rain, it doesn't look like it'll be a soaker

BOTTOM LINE

We really, really need rain, especially in northern and central Vermont. On the other hand, we don't want any big storms that would wreck the foliage season. 

So, I guess it's OK that the weather pattern doesn't really favor big rain storms as we head into October and the peak of the foliage season. But we should hope from soaking rains in the second half of October and November .

Tuesday Vermont Weather: Sunshine Prevails This Week, But What About That Weekend Nor'easter?

This is just one forecast for the position
of the expected nor'easter this weekend. 
It could come closer, giving Vermont
some rain, or it could be further out to
sea, resulting in a sunny weekend. 
At this point a flip of a coin is just
as good as a forecast. 

We endured another cool day Monday with  highs holding in the mid-50s north and central with a few low 60s south. 

The skies remained mostly cloudy, which was expected. Those clouds helped hold down the temperatures. 

It doesn't look like there's any frost around this morning in Vermont, but I noticed Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, got down to at least 31 degrees, which isn't at all odd for them this time of year. 

Overall, we're looking at sunshine most of the week, with some frosts risks in the cold spots. But a bit of a warming trend should set in during the week, too. We won't go back to summer. Instead, it'll be comfortable fall weather. 

We'll be playing nor'easter roulette this coming weekend. We know a nasty nor'easter will rev up off the East Coast this week, but whether it will affect Vermont all that much is still a very, very open question. Best guesses are still no rain, at least in the north. 

The worry is dry air, and relatively gusty winds from the outer fringes of the nor'easter could worsen the northern Vermont drought and expand it. And those winds could increase the fire risk

As always, let's do the daily forecasts

TODAY: 

A nice one. Much more sunshine than yesterday means highs should reach the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds raise the specter of scattered mostly light frost tonight. A lot of towns will be cutting it close. 

The expected low tonight in Montpelier, Newport and St. Johnsbury is 35. Island Pond should get to at least 32 degrees. Rutland is expecting 38, but valleys in the nearby Green Mountains will probably be colder than that. The Champlain Valley should be frost-free. 

WEDNESDAY

Another beauty. The day will start with that patchy frost and a lot of dense fog in the river valleys, which will burn off. Afternoon temperatures  should reach the mid and upper 60s. 

THURSDAY

Still sunny, with a risk of early morning patchy frost in the cold spots. We'll probably have a lot of patchy fog in the valleys again. It's peak season for that.  We'll feel the first hints of that nor'easter with a bit of an increase in north winds. It won't exactly be windy, but you'll notice a breeze. 

FRIDAY

The uncertainty increases. Maybe the clouds increase, too, in the south, we'll have to wait and see. Depending on the track of the nor'easter, there couple be a few showers and increasing winds and southern Vermont. It all depends on whether this thing wants to hug the coast to go more out to sea. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

An iffy weekend. Will the nor'easter come close enough to Vermont to give us some rain? Or will it be a whiff? Or something in between. 

The best guess is we'll have a breezy weekend, maybe downright windy in some spots, especially in the southern Green Mountains. Maybe some rain in southern Vermont, with a lesser chance north. 

This is such a tentative forecast. Don't yell at me if this is totally wrong. Computer models range from a complete miss with bright sunshine in Vermont to a miserably wet, windy weekend.  

We associate nor'easters with very cold air. Usually, even when a nor'easter misses Vermont, it pulls down some horrible frigid air from Canada. 

That won't be the case this time. That big, fat high pressure system anchored in Quebec is sitting there, slowly warming up in the September sun. That's why forecasters are telling us of a slow, if slight warming trend this week. 

The soon-to-be warm-ish Quebec high is huge, and is keeping any real early season cold stuck way up near the Arctic circle. That means the nor'easter doesn't have a chance at tapping into really cold air. If the sun is out this weekend, it'll be near 70. If it's rainy, it'll be near 60, or even in the 60s. 

Storms thrive on a cold/warm air clash. The reason why this one will develop is the Quebec high will have seasonable air to the west of storm. To the east is hot tropical air over ocean waters that are warmer than normal. That set up will help the storm develop nicely. 

Whether that matters to us in Vermont is unknown. 

 

A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

A Noticeable Step Down Into A Vermont Autumn In The Coming Week

Like most of the landscape in Vermont's Champlain Valley
the big maple and other trees around my St. Albans house
are still green. That might start to change as noticeably
cooler weather settles in tomorrow and 
probably lasts through next week

 Very often, when seasons change, there are steps up or down. Sometimes in the fall, you get a stretch of weather that's relatively stable for a week.  

Then suddenly, it's a few degrees cooler, and that chillier regime holds for a week or so. Then it gets cooler yet. 

It's not an even process. As we know we get some lingering warm spells thrown in. Indian Summer, or just a stretch of warm days with balmy southwest breezes.

I bring this up because we're about to take a step down, further into autumn. 

This deeper dive into autumn won't start until tomorrow. Let's get into the details

TODAY

Still warm, and, truth be told, vaguely humid. Certainly not the humidity we deal with in the summer. Just a hint of moisture in the air that will make you sweaty if you really exert yourself. 

Highs should get into the 70s, but this won't be a late breaking brilliant summer day. Clouds should dominate, though there might be a break or two of sun, especially north. Don't count on it, though. 

 A weak disturbance should set off some rain and showers today, mostly in the southern half of Vermont. There might even be some brief downpours. We were already seeing a few very light showers in central Vermont as of 8 a.m., but the bulk of the rain will hit this afternoon

Rainfall in southern Vermont should come out near a quarter inch, maybe a little more in a few spots. 

The north, especially far northwest should be mostly dry, with rainfall amounts today ranging from nothing to maybe a tenth of an inch. 

FRIDAY

The step down to cooler weather should definitely be noticeable tomorrow. A cold front tonight will sweep in much drier air, leading to a sunny, delightful, slightly cool September day. Highs should reach the 60s for most of us. Maybe some upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom and near 70 in the warmest banana belt valley towns. 

This will all happen with pleasant northwest breezes and under blue skies, flecked with a few clouds. 

That'll set us up for a cold night. I think the National Weather Service might issue frost advisories again for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks across the pond in New York. Lows in the cold hollows could easily touch freezing. 

For the rest of us, lows will probably be in 36 to 46 degree range by dawn Saturday, with the warmest readings near Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Even cooler as autumn continues to establish itself. After the chilly morning, highs should only get into the 60s under generally sunny skies. Some clouds might increase later in the day. But all in all, a nice day. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the first cold, raw, damp day of the autumn. That first gloomy, chilly day usually comes about now, so it's right on schedule. A storm sliding by the south will provide more rain to the bottom half of Vermont, not so much to the north. 

Early guess are maybe a tenth of an inch of new rain up by the Canadian order to as much as three quarters to an inch of rain far south. 

Highs should only be near 60. Especially in rainier southern Vermont highs could hold only in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At this point, it looks like another big, fat high pressure system will come down from central Canada and then stall nearby. Early in the week, probably Monday and/or Tuesday morning, we'll need to look at the risk of frost again. Monday will probably be the coolest  day, but it will slowly warm up after that. 

But not much. The step down to autumn weather is complete. Daily highs should be in the 60s Monday through Thursday. In the Northeast Kingdom, there will probably be at least give consecutive mornings, starting Saturday, with lows in the 30s. 

Forecasters are unsure whether the stalled high will keep skies sunny all week, or whether some moisture could work on in from the south with clouds and a risk of light rain. 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a
seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to
start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees
below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With
this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the
10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one 

for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.s