Gorgeous Vermont Weather To Last Through The Weekend

Despite dry conditions, a rogue petunia emerges from a 
crack between asphalt and an old timber between my
driveway and front deck in St. Albans, Vermont. The
flower will see sunshine, but no rain through the weekend.

 It was another cool morning in Vermont with many spots down in the mid and upper 40s again so you should have had another good sleeping night. 

This launches us into yet another great summer weekend. We've had several good weather weekends this summer, so this is has been one of the better warm seasons we've had.

The next couple of days will feature very warm to borderline hot afternoons, with  pretty tame humidity. So, the beaches, hiking trails and cremee stands will be pretty busy for the next few days. 

Weather systems are moving slowly, so high pressure will be stuck nearly overhead all weekend. Hence the sunshine. 

The details: 

TODAY

The strong July sun will drive temperatures up to the low 80s. If you are counting today as part of your weekend, today will be the coolest day of the stretch. 

Much like yesterday, there's traces of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere over Vermont, but it's not nearly thick enough to be an issue. And what little there is is mostly aloft, so the Green Mountains still look mostly green. 

Since the humidity will be low, the atmosphere will release the day's heat, so we'll have another comfortable night. Most of us will start tomorrow in the 50s, with some 40s in the cold spots, and near 60 if you're close to Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Same as today, except somewhat warmer. Highs should get into the 80s statewide. Dew points, a rough measure of how humid it feels outside, will be in the 50s. That's a little higher than today, but still well within the comfortable range,

SUNDAY

Another wonderful summer day. The hottest towns could touch 90 degrees, though most places will stay in the mid and upper 80s. There might be a couple clouds in the afternoon, but the sun will be out most of the time. You might see a couple thundershowers pop up over the Adirondacks, but it looks doubtful any of those will make it over the lake into Vermont. 

NEXT WEEK

Remember how I mentioned above how weather systems are moving slowly?  We'll pay for that during the first half of next week. The particulars are still vague, but a weather front should move in, and slowly pass through.  That leaves us with some pretty high chances of showers or maybe thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. 

This isn't exactly bad news, because we need the rain. Especially after the dry weather that started yesterday. Some parts of the state haven't had any decent rains since July 9. Here in St. Albans, I've had only about a quarter inch of rain since July 9.

Severe Weather Blasts Northeast, But Not Vermont, But The Wind Was Impressive

Scary weather hit the eastern United States
yesterday, but not Vermont. This shows a
flash flood in West Virginia. Note 
the water level outside the sliding 
glass doors. Photo via Facebook 
posted by Ryan Hall Y'all

As expected, Vermont escaped the severe weather that slammed large swaths of the Northeast, but we did have a little bit of wind trouble.

Even though there were no big storms  in Vermont - in fact a number of places had no rain or just a trace - non-thunderstorm south winds cut power in a few spots.  At one point, 3,750 homes and businesses were without power. 

The winds were strongest in the Champlain Valley. Burlington had a gust to 46 mph, for instance. I spent part of the late afternoon removing small branches and twigs from my St. Albans yard. 

It's very unusual for a storm to generate such big gusts this time of year. We've had a series of such storms this summer, which is weird. 

Given such a volatile storm severe weather was inevitable somewhere. So far, nine tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Flash flooding swept many areas. The New York City area endured badly flooded streets for the second time in four days. In parts of West Virginia, five inches of rain fell within hours, causing catastrophic flash flooding. 

More than 2,000 flights were canceled because of the storms.

After all that chaos, things are calming down. Which in a way, is too bad. Parts of Vermont really need the rain now. 

TODAY

A cold front is coming through Vermont this morning, too soon to let thunderstorms really fire up. That'll happen further east. Central and northern Maine is under the gun for some severe storms today. 

We will have some hit and miss showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots. You could see a band of light rain over northern New York shortly after 9 a.m. That was the cold front.  Even so, many of us will avoid any rain.  

We all love nice days, but, as I've done before, I need to quote Lynn Anderson. "Along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometimes."

We're not quite yet on the cusp of another drought, but we do need some rain. At least in parts of Vermont. Scattered showers will bid a hasty retreat out of Vermont by early to mid afternoon. 

The front will make the humidity crash during the day today. You'll notice the change in the air by this afternoon amid fresh westerly breezes. Temperatures will hold in the 70s, with a few low 80s southeast. 

TOMORROW

A gorgeous day. We'l start with another cool morning, most of us will see lows in the 50s, with 40s in the cold spots. Highs will reach the 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The sun will be mixes with a  few pretty clouds. Another Chamber of Commerce day. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We're in for more weather fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We'll enjoy a couple of coolish, comfortable mornings followed by sunny, warm afternoons. Pleasant enough for a vigorous hike, warm enough for a dip in the lake or a swimming hole. Maple cremees will be eaten fast so they don't melt all over the place. 

Highs will be in the low 80s Friday and mid 80s Saturday, with a few upper 80s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Some sort of disturbance will work in to raise the risk of some showers, but it will absolutely not be a washout. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but we don't have specifics on I  unsettled. At least not yet. 

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Gorgeous Vermont Weekend Underway; Weird Brief Hot Blast Coming; Severe Storms?

Bright pink lilies enjoy the morning sun this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. The entire weekend is 
set to be sunny and warm. 

The weather in Vermont knows are schedule for now.  We want nice weekends in the summer and now we've got one on our hands.  

We've actually had a fair number of nice weekend days this summer, so we should be pretty happy with this summer.

This weekend still looks like the best one of the summer. Comfortable enough for vigorous activities like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump. 

Warm enough to jump off the rocks at a swimming hole and plunge into the refreshing, hopefully clean water.  Or, pleasant enough to weed the garden, or fall asleep in the hammock after reading a great novel. 

It's weekend weather endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Today, we're off to a terrific start. As dawn broke this morning, temperatures statewide were in the comfortable 50s, with some low 60s right near Lake Champlain. The strong July sun will get us up to 80 degrees or so this afternoon. We'll see some wildfire smoke in the air, but it shouldn't get so thick to make us choke or worry too much about air quality. 

Humidity is often high in mid-July. Not today, or tomorrow. After the sun sets tonight, the temperature will crash down into the 50s again overnight. Except near 60 again near Lake Champlain. 

Sunday will be another winner. The only difference between today and tomorrow is Sunday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The sun will still shine, the humidity will stay low, and a little wildfire smoke will probably linger in the air. 

After The Weekend

After our stellar weekend, the weather will turn interesting during the week, following the general pattern we've seen this summer. 

As mentioned yesterday, a big heat dome is becoming established over the Rockies and northern Plains. There could well be some all-time record high temperatures in Montana, North Dakota and in Canada, parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.  

A renegade piece of that heat is set to escape from the Rocky Mountains, race east over southern Canada and blast down on us by Tuesday. 

We'll start to feel the heat Monday as highs get into the upper 80s. By Tuesday, the brief packet of heat should be here in New England. In Vermont, most of us should be in the 90s again, with the risk of some mid or even upper 90s in the hottest valleys. 

It will turn more humid, but not as steamy as it could possibly get. The air is coming from the dry West, after all. So we won't get the full tropical blast. 

Then things could get really interesting Tuesday night. A cold front will be approaching from Quebec. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already flagged the risk of severe weather in northern New England later Tuesday or Tuesday night.  It's unusual for New England, at least, for NOAA to sniff this type of thing out days in advance.

It's not definite yet, it's possible nothing will happen. But some forecasters are already throwing around the words "supercell" or "derecho."

We'll keep an eye on this one as get closer to the event. 

Meanwhile, forget about all that. Enjoy this  gorgeous weekend. 

Vermont Weather Quieting Down, But Not Super Quiet; Next Round Of Showers Thursday Night/Friday

A sunny start to the day today in St Albans. The peonies
have gone by and need to be dead headed. The stalks of
the day lilies are up and will bloom soon. That will
be a sign that the peak of summer has arrived, The
weather forecast indicates the same thing. 

At least here in northwest Vermont, Tuesday turned out to be a classical beautiful summer day.  The blue sky was flecked with puffy clouds as highs reached to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. 

It was cloudier in southern Vermont, but still pretty good. All of us will get to share in the summer weather most of us love before rain risks return Thursday nigh and Friday. 

Spoiler: The next round of showers and possible storms will not be as wild as the tornadic stuff we had  last week.

As always, let's get into the details:

TODAY

We've got a nearly perfect summer day in store. Temperatures at dawn started in the comfortable 50s as dawn broke. What is basically the strongest sunshine of the year will boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and low 80s. The humidity will stay reasonable all day. Once again, the blue sky will become decorated by a few puffy clouds. 

Highs should reach well into the 70s again for most of us, with the usual banana belt warmer valleys flirting with 80 degrees again. 

THURSDAY

Another decent day, though you'll probably notice more clouds coming in during the afternoon. The humidity will creep up, but just a little. You'll only notice it a little. Highs again in the 70s to around 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

Our next wet period. But it doesn't look like we'll drown in torrential downpours like some events we've seen this month. 

As is almost always the case during the summer, showers and thunderstorms might have some heavy downpours in them. If current forecasts hold, though, it doesn't look like we'll really have any kind of flood threat, despite our pretty swampy ground from all the rain we've had this month.

Early guesses give us very roughly a third to two thirds of an inch of rain out of this system. Again as usual for summer, some places will miss out and get very little. Some other towns will get some big downpours and maybe to to an inch or rain. 

Fingers crossed it also doesn't look like there will be widespread severe thunderstorms. We'll keep an  eye on this because you really don't know for sure if storm will get too rambunctious until the day the storms arrive. 

WEEKEND

Kind of warm, moderately humid, still a risk of a few thunderstorms, but most of the time will be dry. Very typical summer weather.  It will tend to warm up, with highs in the 80s for most places over the weekend and early next week. 

Although the signs of a warm up are there, I'm still unsure whether this will end in a spell of 90 degree weather or not. Stay tuned! 

Vermont Mostly Done With The Rain For A Couple Days, Warming Trend To Start

After a cloudy, cool day, a shaft of sunlight lit up the
trees just before sunset yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont

 As expected, southern parts of Vermont scored the best rains yesterday and last night. I don't have a lot of reports yet, but Springfield looks like they had 1.21 inches of rain and Bennington a respectable 0.7 inches. 

You get north and the rain tapered off, again as expected. Montpelier had just 0.32 inches. Burlington had a scant 0.01 inches.

It's just as well the north missed out. It's soggy up there. The National Weather Service in South Burlington just released some stats noting just how wet it's been.

In general this time of year, most Vermont towns should expect a little over four inches of rain over a 30 day period. Burlington in the past 30 days has had 6.74 inches. But that's one of northern Vermont's "dry" spots. 

Over the past 30 days, Westfield has had a drenching 11.15 inches so drain. Derby Line was at 9.99 inches. Other totals include 9.98 inches in Underhill Center, 9.92 inches in Montgomery Center, 9.85 inches in Richmond and 9.44 inches in Glover.

FORECAST

It won't be as wet! Here are the details

Today/Tomorrow. 

These sodden towns, and the rest of the state, should stay mostly dry today and tomorrow, for a change. I say "mostly" because cool air aloft today might spark some isolated light showers. A weak disturbance Wednesday could touch off a few more widely scattered showers near the Canadian border. 

But, in general, today and tomorrow will be dry. And we'll start a warming trend. A pretty slow trend, but warmer nonetheless. 

We'll get well into the 70s today, with some upper 70s in the  more banana belt valleys of Vermont. . That'll make today the warmest day since last Wednesday. By tomorrow. highs should touch 80 in many valleys. 

Thursday/Friday

The rain comes back but it's unclear how much.  It looks like much of Thursday will be dry with shower chances maybe ramping up later in the day. We think there will be some showers and storms around Thursday night and Friday, but it's unclear how much rain we'll get.  We're also not sure whether any of the storms will be on the strong side. 

This won't be as big and bold and mighty a weather system as the last one we dealt with, so early guesses are the rain won't be as heavy and the severe weather might not be as widespread as last time. If it happens at all. 

Highs both days should be at least 80 degrees in most towns. Overnight lows will still be reasonable enough at around 60 degrees, give or take.

Next Weekend And Beyond

It looks like full on summer weather will continue to build. Highs by next weekend should at least hit the low 80s for most of us. There might still be some scattered afternoon showers or storms over the weekend, but we're not sure on that yet. 

It'll get even warmer as we get into next week. Some signs are pointing toward a downright hot spell to settle in some time next week, just in time for July

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not. 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

A Dry And Warm Vermont Midweek, But Does Another Wet Weekend Loom?

These irises in St. Albans, Vermont are definitely 
enjoying this week's sunshine. 

 Boy, yesterday was another great June day, wasn't it? Sunny and warm, with just some high clouds decorating the skies. 

Tuesday did get off to a chilly start. A lot of places were in the 30s early Monday morning, so there might have been some frost in the coldest hollows of Vermont. 

No biggie, that happens the Green Mountain State often in early June. 

Today, we started off cool again, in the 40s. That was fading fast as temperatures soar to within a few degrees either side of 80 today. I think most valleys should reach at least 80 today os it's definitely warm. 

Thursday. 

Even warmers, as temperature soar well into the 80s. In fact, most of us will be within a few degrees of record highs for the date. For instance, Burlington is going for a high of 89 degrees, and the record high there is 92 degrees. Montpelier expects a high of 86 Thursday, and their record high is 87. 

But it won't be really humid, so it will still be a nice today. 

Friday. 

Similar to Thursday but maybe a degree or two cooler because some clouds should arrive in the afternoon. We should all be in the 80s. The humidity will creep up a little, but still be pretty reasonable. 

Weekend

It's the weekend, so the rule is, it has to rain. 

It's a few days away, so the specifics still have to be worked out. It does look like a slow moving cold front will sink southward into and eventually through Vermont. By Saturday, it could be pretty humid. It doesn't look like the atmosphere will be right for severe thunderstorms, but there could be some heavy downpours. 

By Sunday, it will probably be noticeably cooler under the showery clouds and behind the cold front. But "cooler" won't be the same as what we endured in our chilly May. Instead of 50s and low 60s for highs, we're tentatively looking at low to mid 70s. 

Remember, the forecast is subject to change. If you don't like rainy weekends, you never know. The weather could change it could turn sunnier. But right now, I'm not super optimistic.

The overall weather pattern is still a warm one, so I expect some more days in the 80s next week. 

 

The Script Flips: Vermont To Go From Chilly, Showery To Summer Warm And Dry

Storm clouds gather over St. Albans, Vermont late Sunday
afternoon. While no hail fell here, thunderstorms 
produced a lot of small hail in some Vermont towns.
This week brings sunshine and warmer air. 

 Another day, another chill in the air, and even some ice.

That was yesterday, of course. Despite a brief burst of sunshine in many areas, especially north, highs were only in the 60s, which was still below normal for this time of year. Southern areas stayed cloudy much of the day. 

That afternoon break in the clouds allowed thunderstorms to develop in Quebec and the head south into Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. 

Although the thunderstorms weren't really severe, the very cold air aloft made it easy for the storms to form hail. That hail came down pretty hard in a few spots, whitening the ground. 

And in some places the hail was fairly big, all things considered. Near Richford, the hail had a half inch diameter,  which is more or less the size of a dime. Several other towns reported the ground covered by pea sized hail. 

RETURN TO SUMMER

A big flip flop has started in the atmosphere overhead. Perfect timing as we flip the calendar to the summer month of June. 

A big southward dip in the jet stream in the eastern U.S, made the past few days frustrating to at least some of us. The air stayed cool. Showers always seemed to threaten and it even snows on many of northern New England mountain peaks Friday night and Saturday morning. 

The past few days have contributed to a May that turned out on the cool side. I'll have a good summary of the interesting weather month of May, 2026 hopefully later today

Those days are gone.  Or at least going. A big northward bulge in the jet stream wants to develop over us. That's coming quicker than we originally thought. A few days ago, we thought most of this week would be cool and unsettled.

But nope! The weather gods are smiling upon Vermont again, fingers crossed. Warm high pressure will become established nearby as a result. It won't exactly be record warmth, u,t you'll definitely notice the changes. And by later in the week, you mind well find yourself out in the garden with a hose, soaking thirsty plants. 

Here are the details: 

Today

We're beginning the process of warming up today, but it won't exactly feel like full on summer. Under at least partly sunny skies, we should flirt with 70 degrees in the warmer valleys and 60s elsewhere. That's still a little on the cool side, believe it or not. The forecast high in Burlington today is 71, compared to a normal of 74 degrees.

Fog from early this morning should either be burning off or gone by the time you read this. There should be some afternoon clouds, mainly over the north and mountains. but even those areas should have some sun. 

We might even find an isolated sprinkle coming out of one or two of those clouds, but nobody will get soaked. Wider valleys will be sunnier. 

Tonight will be quite cool for early June, but not insanely so. Lows should be in the low 40s most places. Maybe in the mid 40s Champlain Valley and mid to upper 30s in the usual cold spots. The coldest  hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have a little frost, but the vast majority of us should be fine. 

Tuesday:

A winner of a day. Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. 'Nuff said.

Wednesday 

Another stellar day. Hey, we deserve 'em after what we endured over the past few days. OK, "endured" is a really strong word for the mildly unpleasant moments in the weather in recent days, but you know what I mean. 

Here's where it begins to feel like summer. Many of the warmer valleys should touch 80 degrees if the forecast holds. The high sun angle will make it feel pretty toasty out, but the humidity should still be low.

Thursday.

It actually gets kind of hot by later in the week if the forecast is right. Vermont valleys should make it into the mid and upper 80s for the afternoon. 

Friday/Next Weekend 

Some cold fronts and other weather disturbances should get close to Vermont by then. It's too early to tease out when the showers hit, how big they'll be or how long they would last. But those potential cold fronts don't look like they will be powerhouses, so there's little chance we'll freeze our butts off again when then come through. 

At worst, they'll probably just bring near normal temperatures. Which for this time of year is 70s for highs. 

Two More Dry, Pleasant Vermont Spring Days Due, And We Might Get A Bonus Day Before Chilly Rain Sets In

Daffodils seen here enjoying a sunny Sunday 
afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont. They'll continue
to soak up the sun today and tomorrow before 
rainy, chilly weather arrives late in the wee. 

Sunday was another luscious spring day in Vermont, and the forecast has held. It was nice watching the daffodils soak up the warm sunshine while dancing in the breeze. Makes you almost forget about the long winter we just emerged from, huh? 

We've got two more such days for you today and tomorrow. And it turns out Wednesday might unexpectedly turn out OK, too!

The best day will be today. We''ll see lots of sunshine and temperatures way up in the 60s. Some of the warmer valleys will touch 70 degrees or so.  It will be cooler along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain as cool breezes come off the still pretty frigid lake.

The nights during this spell have been chilly. Morning lows for most of us across Vermont were in the 30s today. The nights will still be cool, but slightly milder than recent days. So, in the 40s for many of us overnight today. And Tuesday night..

I'm saying Tuesday won't be quite as nice as today, but I'll still grade it an A+.  The sunshine and warm temperatures will continue, but the winds will pick up. Especially in the Champlain Valley, where gusts from the south could reach 30 mph  in spots.

The progress of spring has been moving along nicely the past couple of days. The mild afternoons and the somewhat less cold mornings over the next couple of days will accelerate it even more. 

But not enough to stop this week's fire danger.  The dry grasses and weeds from last fall still predominate. The strong sun has quickly dried out the leaf litter on the floors of the forests. 

Even without that much wind, brush and woodland fires are breaking out. Between the morning of April 22 and 26 three new fires in Vermont burned an additional eleven acres or so in Vermont.  I don't think that figure includes anything that happened Sunday. The total acreage burned so far this year in Vermont is 154.8.

The fire danger remains high today, according to the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation.  The danger from woodland and field blazes will go up much more tomorrow amid those gusty winds. So let's be careful out there, folks. 

TURNING WETTER. COLDER

 We've thought for days that rain would move in Wednesday. It turns out some showers coming at us on that day will fall apart before they get here because of the dry air.  At this point, it looks like Wednesday will turn our partly sunny and in the 60s, so pretty good! We might see a few sprinkles on Wednesday, but that's about it. 

The real turn comes Wednesday night and Thursday, when a strong disturbance creates some rain. The disturbance will turn our weather much colder, with highs Thursday only in the low 50s or so. 

After that, Friday and Saturday continue to look nippy, with highs only in the 40s with some low 50s i the warmer valleys south. Ugh.  There will be chances of mostly light showers during that time. And yes, some snow on the mountains. Mostly above 2,000 or 2,500 feet. That happens a lot this time of year, actually, but it's still annoying to know it's snowing somewhere in Vermont as we flip the calendar to May. 

The weather continues to look mostly cool and unsettled into the middle of May.  There might be a warmer day or two thrown in there, and some days will feature sone sun. But this gorgeous stretch of weather we're having now won't repeat itself for quite a long time to come. Enjoy it now. 

Enjoy Vermont Spring Now, Because It Will Come To A Temporary Halt Late This Week

Some hyanicith and daffodils enjoying spring this
week in a St. Albans, Vermont garden 

Saturday was another gorgeous spring day in Vermont, though it did, as expected, cloud up quite a bit in southwestern parts of the state. 

We have basically three and a half days more wonderful spring weather coming up before the season comes to a grinding, though obviously temporary halt at the end of the week. Weather systems often stall in the spring. 

We're lucky enough now to be stuck under sunny high pressure. By the second half of the week, we'll be mired beneath a cold pool of cold air aloft, which means clouds, very chilly air, some rain showers, and yes, mountain snow. 

 I'll do the spoiler now: The halt to spring won't wreck your garden plants and trees, but it will stop the buds from popping and more flowers from bursting for a least a couple days. 

Let's get into the details

TODAY

The disturbance that dove southeast through New York State Saturday, giving much of that state a damp, rainy Saturday is heading off into the Atlantic Ocean. That Canadian high pressure that's been giving us the cool, generally sunny weather the past couple of days is taking over again. 

It's a big one, extending from Nunavut, up in the Arctic of northeastern Canada a little west of Greenland, all the way down to New England. 

Canadian high pressure is usually chilly. And the northern part is. The forecast high in Iqaluit, Nunavut today is 9 degrees, compared to a normal high of 20.  Yep, it's cold up there in the Arctic, Captain Obvious  tells us.

However, way down here in tropical New England (practice your southern accents, y'all), the strong late April sun is cooking the air mass and making it warmer and warmer. That's why Saturday was a little warmer than Friday. And why today will be a little toastier than yesterday. 

So we'll have quite a lot of sunshine with highs generally in the low 60s today. The Northeast Kingdom will be a little cooler in the upper 50s while southern valley floors probably reach the mid 60s. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

The spring sunshine train will continue as that high pressure holds firm.  It'll turn even warmer both days as we get well into the 60s. A few places will flirt with 70 degrees. That's 'actually only somewhat warmer than normal for this time of year. (Normal highs are near 60 degrees) We'll take it! 

The only problem with all this is the fire danger. It's very dry and very sunny, with very low humidity. Too many verys there but you get the point. Winds should be pretty light today and tomorrow, which will help. Even so, light winds don't prevent fires. They just don't spread as fast, but they do spread. 

A brush and woodland fire in Milton looks like it spread pretty quickly yesterday afternoon, and firefighters were on the scene for about four hours putting it out. 

It'll get windier on Tuesday, so that will be the day to really watch out for woodland and field blazes. 

WEDNESDAY

A transition day as we begin to flip toward the new, definitely less pleasant stuck weather pattern. Sunshine should fade behind clouds and there might be some rain drops toward the end of the day. Highs will still reach the 60s.

THURSDAY

This will be the rainiest of the days as low pressure becomes established overhead or at least nearby. Hard to say how much rain we'll get, but early projections suggest a half inch. So not all that much, but at least it will wet the ground down and end the fire danger. 

FRIDAY/ NEXT WEEKEND

The cold pool of air will sit overhead during this time, keeping us mostly cloudy and definitely cold for this time of year. Highs Friday and Saturday might not get out of the 40s for many of us, which is why I'm saying spring will come to a stop. Plants don't like to grow when it's in the 40s. At least we won't have any real freezes to hurt anything as nighttime temperatures should stay mostly in the 30s during this nippy spell.

Much of the time should be rain free, but there will always be a risk of light rain showers at any time. But especially in the afternoons and evenings as the April sun makes the cold air less stable. 

And yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the highest elevations. Not much, but some. And even in the valleys, a particularly robust shower might bring down some extra cold air, and you'll end up with something called graupel. 

Graupel is basically teeny tiny snowballs.  They are snowflakes that had super cooled water attach to them. So they're these little white sleety things that remind me of bits of packing material or styrofoam. 

So. Yay. 

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND

It'll warm up a little after next weekend, but we're stuck in a chilly, unsettled weather pattern at least into the middle of May, and possibly beyond. There's a good chance you'll see an occasional sunny, warmish day thrown in from time to time, but generally speaking, it will be cool and showery much of the time. 

It's way too soon to figure out if we'll get some soaking rains out of this pattern, or just some annoying sprinkles. As far as I'm concerned, if it's going to rain, we might as well get some good drenching here and there to get the gardens and farm fields in shape for the start of summer. 

Time will tell, as it always does..

Gorgeous Spring Weekend In Vermont, Stays Beautiful Beginning of Week

Yesterday afternoon's satellite view tells the story. Narrow high
pressure nosing down from Quebec is keeping Vermont
sunny for the most part. Low pressure in eastern
Canada kept the Northeast Kingdom cloudy yesterday.
Today, that eastern Canada is gone so the Northeast Kingdom
will be sunny today. Those clouds you see in the upper
left corner are diving to the southeast. That might
turn far southwest Vermont cloudy later today but
it'll be sunnier the further northeast you go. 

Our spell of dry, more or less sunny weather in Vermont continues today through Tuesday. With a warming trend to boot.  

It was almost too cool on Friday, especially in the Northeast Kingdom  

Low pressure spinning near the Maritime Provinces of Canada and high pressure way the hell up there around Hudson Bay provided Vermont with two dramatically different types of weather.

North and east of Interstate 89, it was a cloudy, breezy and notably chilly day.  Shades of March, actually. Highs never got out of the 40s and wind chills at times were in the 30s. Not a nice day. 

South and west of Interstate 89, it was entirely a different story. Sure, it was cool and breezy, but temperatures were in the low to mid 50s, so pretty reasonable. And quite sunny and bright. The southwestern third of the state had not one single cloud in the sky.

It cleared up everywhere overnight. The dry air, the clear skies and the lighter winds got us pretty chilly by dawn today. I noticed Morrisville was down to 24 at 6 a.m. and Montpelier was at 25. Most of us were in the 27 to 33 degree range as the sun began to rise.

Other than those chilly temperatures this morning, that high pressure is gradually nosing down from northern Quebec. But it's not really bringing any really cool air with it. At least this far south. So a slow warm up will start today and continue

TODAY

We'll pick up a few extra degrees this afternoon compared to  yesterday as temperatures make it into the mid and upper 50s.  It'll be places south and west of Interstate 89 that eventually get the clouds today as a rainy disturbance treks from around Toronto and western New York this morning, making it down to New York City tonight. 

It won't be an overcast sky for the most part, but when you get down toward Bennington, it'll probably be pretty gray by the end of the day.  A sprinkle might even make it as far as Bennington tonight, but otherwise the rain will stay in New York. 

Meanwhile, the Northeast Kingdom, which was so cloudy yesterday, might see some high clouds, but the day will be sunny. 

SUNDAY

The National Weather Service is going with partly sunny skies tomorrow, which makes sense as there might be some lingering clouds from that thing that went through New York State. But it's going to be a gorgeous day no matter. Highs should top out near 60 degrees. Get out there and enjoy it. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The start of the week will be call in sick to work days. Not because you are sick, I hope, but because you're "sick" enough to just adore spring.  Highs both days will get well into the 60s, maybe even flirt with 70 degrees.  You'll want to enjoy these days because....

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

........ no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished.

The punishment starts next Wednesday or Thursday, as we'll get into a much cloudier, more showery pattern that looks like it could last well into May. I'm waffling on which day because some computer models hold off the showers until Wednesday night or Thursday. 

It looks like an annoying weather pattern more than anything else. It won't rain all the time, but almost every day starting Wednesday and continuing on more than a week after should have at least a chance of showers. 

Unless a very wet weather system to poke its nose into this weather pattern - an iffy proposition - we also might not have the kind of soaking rain we occasionally need to keep everything moist enough. Especially now that everything is getting set to bloom and the forests are getting ready to leaf out. 

Instead, it would be mostly those pesky, light showers. Or very, very brief downpours that also don't really soak everything down. It will also be a cool weather pattern. Monday and Tuesday might be the warmest days you'll see in quite awhile. 

I think May might turn out to be one of those months that are cool, and damp, a reluctant spring. Then, sometime later in the month, we might flip right over to hot summer weather. I have no forecasts that says that's going to happen.  Because it's impossible to forecast the weather a month in advance.

But I just have that feeling. I've seen it before, and I think we might see it again. As always, stay tuned.  

 

April Wildfires Rage In U.S. There's Even A FIre Threat Here In Vermont

Screen grab of a report from WPTZ of a brush fire that
got out of control in Shelburne Wednesday. Much
of the state has a high fire danger today. Elsewhere
in the U.S. much, much worse wildfires have been raging

It's been a terrible wildfire year already in the U.S. and it continued to get worse on Wednesday. 

Fires raged in Georgia, Florida and other states. It's a continuation of a fiery spring in the United States. 

So far this year, through April 17, the nation has seen 20,915 wildfires, the most in recent history and far above the average of 13,597 through that date, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. 

As of April 17, 1,748,490 acres have burned, far above the average of  875,957 through mid-April.  With drought raging in much of the nation, the fires will only get worse as we head into the summer. 

The last few days have made things even worse.

In drought-stricken southern Georgia, at least 50 homes were destroyed by wildfires.  Hundreds of people have been evacuated. Much of Georgia is under mandatory burn bans for the first time in the state's history. The fires are mostly in southern Georgia and northern Florida, where an intense drought is worsening. 

In northern Floria, firefighters battled more than 130 wildfires that burned 39 square miles, NBC News reported. 

Further north, a smoky haze engulfed Atlanta.

In Colorado, a fast moving fire southeast of Colorado Springs prompted evacuation. 

Today, fire alerts run from New Mexico and northwest Texas all the way to eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

VERMONT FIRES

Here in Vermont, things are not nearly as dire as they are in Florida, Georgia, Colorado and other places beset with big wildfires.

But April and early May represent peak wildfires season here in the Green Mountain State. Mostly because said Green Mountain State is not that green yet. Last year's dead brush and leaves, exposed to the sun through leafless trees, dry out in a flash. Even a day or two after rain or snow. 

We've already a few dry episodes with fires this spring. This year through yesterday, 28 Vermont fires have burned 143.6 acres, according to data from the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

 Just yesterday in Shelburne, WPTZ reports that somebody called the town's fire department for a burn permit after already setting the field alight. The fire department turned down the request. 

Meanwhile the fire got out of control as winds gusted to as high as 25 to 30 mph. Firefighters from three departments got the fire contained after it burned about a half acre. No word from the report as to whether the property owner was cited. 

Officials are warning of potential fires today, especially in lower valleys. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement warning of fire danger in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Very dry air and gusty winds could really spread fires today. Now is not the time to burn your brush pile, or flick a cigarette out your truck window. 

Dry weather will continue through the weekend, which keeps the fire danger going. But winds starting tomorrow will be lighter than the 25 to 30 mph gusts we'll see today. 

GREAT WEATHER!

A daffodil enjoying some early morning sunshine
today in St. Albans, Vermont. We have great
spring weather coming for the next few days
but there is a high fire danger, especially today.

Aside from the fire danger, we have just launched into a spell of great spring weather. Skies should have at least a fair amount of sun daily through Sunday or Monday. April showers bring May flowers, but so does April sunshine. 

Cool weather, especially today and tomorrow will be invigorating for those of you who want to go out and get yard work done. 

Highs today and tomorrow should mostly be in the low and mid 50s

We will have freezes tonight and tomorrow night as readings  fall to between 25 and 30 degrees both nights. This won't be cold enough to endanger spring plants like the sharper, colder spell we had Monday and Tuesday morning. 

At least around my area in northwest Vermont, most of my spring plants survived Tuesday morning's frigid temperatures. They'll do fine this time, too. 

But if you are hardening off more tender plants on your deck or whatever, bring them in tonight, tomorrow night and maybe the night after that, too. 

The weekend will turn a little warmer, with highs near 60, which is about normal for this time of year. It looks like skies will be partly to mostly sunny, so we have a fantastic weekend coming up, fingers crossed. 

The Vermont Maple Festival is this weekend in St. Albans, so it'll be a perfect weekend for that, too! 

Vermont, Back In Sunny Drought, Will See Temperatures Bounce Around

Henry the Weather Dog says his favorite weather is
warm, sunny weather, so he's been very happy 
lately. He's not as worried about the drought as
many Vermonters are. In this photo, he's taking
a quick break from playing with his friends
in Sunday's sunshine at a 
St. Albans, Vermont dog park. 

After our welcome rains last week, and a slow clearing trend, we're back to the sunny, drought-idled regime we've been on here in Vermont since mid-summer. 

A weak disturbance gave us some clouds Saturday, but no rain, of course. 

Sunday was beautiful and mostly sunny and oddly warm for the end of September. The high temperature in Burlington was 81 degrees, just two degrees below the record high for the date.

That band of clouds that came through midday Sunday was allegedly a cold front. It had no rain with it - again, of course. The "cold front" introduced some less humid air, which allowed temperatures to fall a little lower this morning that the very mild previous nights. 

Sunday's alleged cold front was the start of a temporary cooling trend that will reverse itself by the end of the week.  By next weekend, it'll be strangely warm again. The only constant through all this will be the daily almost wall to wall sunshine. Not great if you're sick of Vermont's deep, destructive drought. 

Today will be almost as warm as Sunday, ahead of the next cold front. That front will come through tonight with no fanfare, no rain, no nothing.  All it will do is make tomorrow feel noticeably cooler. But still mild enough for the last day of September.

BRIEF COOL SPELL

The trend will keep running cooler Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will actually be fairly close to normal for this time of year. Highs both days should be within a few degrees either side of 60. That's not bad, considering in the past we've sometimes seen highs in the 40s in the opening days of October. 

Even so, we'll have to worry about scattered frosts and freezes again Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. It won't be anything out of the ordinary for the first days of October, but it you're hanging on to your outdoor plants, you probably will have to cover them up again. 

Much of the Champlain Valley looks like it will escape the frost, but pay attention to future forecasts in case it gets unexpectedly cool any of those nights.  

One thing that could slightly mitigate the risk of frost comes in part - believe it or not - from Hurricane Humberto and soon to be Hurricane Imelda far offshore of the East Coast. 

The contrast between those storms, and massive, dry high pressure coming down from Quebec, will stir up a north to northeast breeze. Overnight breezes might keep temperatures up just a bit.  

By the way, the forecast trend has been more and more for Humberto to tug Imelda away from the southeastern United States, so the effects of Imelda won't be nearly as bad as first feared. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, that big, fat, sunny, dry high pressure will stick around. Starting Friday and even more so during the weekend, the high will shift a little to the east. 

Because of that, the cool north breezes will shift and become very light puffs of wind from the southwest. That will bring back the warm air. Despite the relative chill on the opening two days of the month, October looks like it will come in hot. 

I wouldn't be super surprised if temperatures flirt with 80 degrees once again by Sunday or early next week. That's definitely unusual but not unheard of for early October. I don't know whether the entire month of October will be warm, but the balmy weather coming up for the beginning of this October fits a recent trend.

Three of the past four Octobers - at least as measure in Burlington - were among the top ten warmest on record. Maybe we'll do it again this year. 

In terms of rain, it's still looking grim heading into October. The dry air that's become established in Vermont will erase the slight gains against the drought we saw with last week's rain. Then it will continue deepening our serious drought. 

I've been saying our next chances of rain are around October 9.  I'm not sure yet, but that needed rain is beginning to look like it might be postponed a few more days. Let's hope not! 

Most Of Weekend Rain "Canceled" As Frustrating Vermont Drought Rolls On

Canada gifted us with a cold front Thursday and
all we got was a wind shift and a couple clouds. 

 Droughts might not necessarily be the most destructive weather disaster possible, but they are probably the most frustrating.  

I don't mean to dismiss the damage droughts inflict. Each one can cause millions, even billions of dollars in damage to crops, water infrastructure and more. 

In some parts of the world, droughts cause or contribute to famines which can kill thousands. Droughts are not to be messed with. 

Most weather disasters, though, have a pretty clear beginning and end. The hurricane, tornado or flood arrives and does its damage. When you're in it, you have a pretty good idea when it will be over. Then the storm indeed departs, leaving us humans to pick up the pieces. 

A drought sneaks up on you.  You don't realize you're in it until the crops start wilting, the well runs dry and the trees start turning brown. Worse, you have no idea when it will end.  Plus, there's usually no clean break from it.

I look at droughts the way I look at my experiences in airport terminals. Some people are afraid of flying. I'm not. My phobia is airport terminals. 

Airport terminals are where everything goes wrong. It usually takes the form of a slow cascade of escalating trouble. Like droughts. The worst part of airport terminals is you're there, and your flight gets delayed. They don't tell you how long the delay will last, why there's a delay or whether it will turn into a cancelation. 

You don't know whether you'll have to rebook with another airline, how long you will be there, whether you will actually get to your destination, or where you will sleep tonight. The uncertainty is what kills you. You actually feel better getting terrible, concrete news at the airport than you do when you are lingering with all those unanswered questions.

Not knowing what will happen is strangely better than learning your flight is canceled and the next available flight is three days from now. 

Droughts are the same way.  There's no real end date.  No information. There are moments of false hope. Maybe on a particular day during a drought it rains hard for awhile. But then it stops, and you return to endless days of blue skies and dry air. The drought worsens. 

Even when the rains really returns, it takes forever for the drought to actually end. It's hard to end a drought. Months of near average rainfall won't do it. You need months and months of above average rainfall. The chances of that happening are less than 50/50. 

OUR CURRENT EXPERIENCE

That's where we are in Vermont now. Each new forecast, each new day is another piece of frustration. It doesn't rain, again. A forecast that said rain was likely evaporates into a chance of scattered sprinkles. 

A cold front went through Vermont Thursday but you're forgiven if you didn't notice. Most cold fronts at least have a band of showers with them.  This one maybe had a couple puffy clouds. And a breeze that came from the north but didn't affect temperatures all that much. 

The only moisture we had was the patchy dense river valley fog we so often get during calm early mornings in September. The cold front meant temperatures this morning fell into the upper 30s to mid 40s by dawn. There might have been a patch or two of frost again in the very coldest hollows. 

Today is another sunny, dry one. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday but still pleasant. Except for the arid air that will keep worsening the drought. 

Speaking of worsening, the forecast has dried up too. The hoped for rain this weekend will not materialize. At least not to any great extent.

Earlier forecasts had a disturbance coming down from Canada and going right over us. That would have been good for maybe a quarter inch of rain. Not much, but it would have tided us over for a day or two.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will zip by to our north, leaving just a weak trough (basically a semi-cold front) to come through Saturday night. It will have very little rain along it. Plus, the air is so dry most of the small amount of rain coming with that little front will evaporate on its way down from the clouds. 

A few raindrops probably will make it to the ground, but they will basically amount to a trace. It might wet the dust down a tiny bit late Saturday or early Sunday. 

Then it's back to another long period of sunny, dry weather.  It feels strange to curse a string of sunny days in what used to be a perennially overcast Vermont. 

This drought is stubborn. It will actually get a little warmer next week, which is doubly bad. Dry, sunny weather will keep evaporating what little water we have left. When it gets warmer, evaporation rates increase. 

Expect at least some days next week to get up to near 80 degrees. 

Our next shot at rain still looks like it will come in around September 20. Long range forecasts continue to indicate that the weather system that would bring that rain looks unimpressive, so don't expect any kind of nice soaking. 

That would be too much to ask. 

Vermont is stuck in Terminal A of Drought International Airport, and the ticket agents are not telling us anything about whether we'll eventually be able to leave. They're not even offering a drink of water.  

Even After A Rain, Drought Conditions Quickly Favor Return To Fire Danger

A pretty sky on a brilliant September day Monday
as seen from a hillside near Richmond, Vermont

You can tell we needed a lot more rain than what we got Friday and Saturday to dig ourselves out of the drought. 

One sunny, breezy, admittedly gorgeous Vermont Monday and it's already getting parched out there. 

The rain from Saturday soaked in a little, but only wetted the thinnest top layer of soil. That's already drying out. 

You can tell the rain did little good because river levels scarcely budged from their low levels. 

Rock bottom low Lake Champlain rose a whole 0.03 inches from late last week to a 93.38 feet yesterday, an incredibly low level. 

So, given this, we'll have to watch for occasional fire risk days when low humidity and breezy winds overlap for the rest of this autumn until we get some soaking rains. As leaves die and drop and weeds and vegetation turn brown and dormant, the fire risk will rise. 

We'd better pray for a soggy mid and late autumn

THE FORECAST/FIRE RISKS

They did get some frost in the very coldest hollows last night. There were some reports of low to mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom. The always-cold spot Saranac Lake, New York in the Adirondacks was down to 29 degrees. It was 32 there yesterday, ending their always short growing season. This year, it was 97 days between the last spring freeze and the first one of the fall.

All the rest of us, of course, escaped anything like that. I'm grateful the wildfire smoke in the atmosphere has been pretty minimal around here lately.  It was nice to see that deep blue sky between the decorative clouds in the sky during the day Monday, 

The very low humidity will continue to dry out the landscape over the next few days. Today, the fire danger is high in southern Vermont and just moderate in northern Vermont, where better rains fell  Saturday.

We'll continue to have cool nights and warm sunny days today and tomorrow, (lows 40-52, highs well into the 70s) and plentiful sunshine. But we won't have much wind. So if a fire were to start, it wouldn't spread too fast. And the lingering but waning moisture from the weekend might also hinder the spread. 

THURSDAY DANGER

The potential problems come Thursday. By then, the fine fuels that can catch fire - dry grass, weeds and leaves) will have dried out completely after Saturday's rain. 

Meanwhile, the drought has gotten so bad that big things in the forests like big dead branches and fallen logs have really dried out.  It takes a long time for those objects to get dry enough to burn efficiently, but we've accomplished that this year.  Once they dry out, it takes a lot of rain to get them sort of too wet to burn once again.

If these big branches and logs do burn,  they can generate a lot of heat and can make fire behavior more dangerous than usual. And make it much more difficult to contain a forest fire.   

It's one reason why droughts are so dangerous 

The reason I bring this up when I'm talking about this coming Thursday is another cold front is coming. It will have no rain with it like most cold fronts do. But it will generate some gusty north winds. It won't be a gale, but the 25 mph gusts could spell trouble. 

That kind of wind is enough to make it easy for fires to start and spread quickly. With all that dry stuff in the woods we can really have some trouble.

Which is why we all have to be careful with fires. Especially on Thursday. If we don't start any blazes, then there's no problem. At least in terms of wildfires. 

The wind should quickly calm down late Thursday night, so at least the gusts won't last long. The next chance of somewhat windy weather is Saturday, when breezes will pick up from the south.

We do have a slight chance of light showers Sunday, but that's iffy. If it does rain, it will be very light - easily less than a tenth an inch. Which wouldn't do much good.  There's a good chance it might not rain at all. 

According to a lot of the forecasts I've seen, the next shot at any real rain in Vermont would come around September 20.  That's an awful long time to wait in a drought like this.

Thursday Morning Vermont Update: Cool, Rain South, Big Time Dry North

This morning's radar, shown at around 7:30 a.m. makes it
look like a lot of rain is falling. But most of it
in central and northern Vermont is evaporating
before it hits the ground, and that state of
affairs should continue all day. The yellow and
dark green in southern Vermont is rain steadily
falling and that should continue all day as well.

 If you looked at weather radar this morning, it seems like it's a really rainy Thursday in Vermont. It's not. 

Sure, a soggy weather system is approaching, but it will pass through our south. Very dry air is streaming in from Canada. 

That dry air is evaporating most of the rain that was trying to fall in central and northern Vermont.

The result will be a cloudy, cool day north, and a rainy day south. 

Not all the rain was evaporating north. Narrow ares of sprinkles were  making it to the ground, which is a bit of a surprise. 

So practically anyone in Vermont might see at least some raindrops here and there today. 

The only substantial rain, though, will hit along and south of Route 4. It looks like there will be a sharp gradient between light rain and heavier stuff. 

Near Rutland and White River Junction, the National Weather Service was calling for only a tenth of an inch of rain or so. (Though morning radar images suggested they might get a little more than that. 

Drive less than an hour or so south down Interstate 91 or Route 7 from Route 4, and soon you could really hit some soakers as you approach Bennington or Brattleboro. Places near the Massachusetts border, especially high elevations like Wilmington, Readsboro and Marlboro, could see up to an inch of rain.

Although we could have used a soaking rain, Vermont is lucky this storm is not going right over us. Those in its direct path - the Mid Atlantic States and areas as far north as Connecticut, are under flood watches today. 

New Jersey, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania - areas that have already dealt with a lot of flash flooding this summer -  are particularly in trouble today.     

We're talking inches of rain in many of those spots, Some pinpoint areas could see as much as five or six or even more inches of rain, which would cause catastrophic flooding in a highly populated part of the nation.

I guess our national Summer of Floods is continuing. Thankfully not here in Vermont, at least for the time being.

DRY VERMONT WEEKEND

Here in Vermont, after today, we're still expecting the longest dry spell since last September.  We also have an excellent chance of breaking the streak of 32 consecutive weekends with at least a little precipitation  - at least as measured in Burlington.   

National Weather Service rain forecast has nothing in
central and northern Vermont to near an inch near
the Massachusetts border. 

According to one chart from the National Weather Service,  the percent chance of rain this weekend in Burlington gets no higher than 2 percent.  

Those are pretty damn good odds of dry weather. (Though the way this year is going, I almost wouldn't be surprised if it rains from a clear blue sky).

The annoying humidity we've had for at least a week  has been finally be flushed out, too, and it's not coming back for several days at least. 

Which means we have a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend coming up. Lingering clouds in southern Vermont should start to clear Friday. Elsewhere, it's sunshine Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

I'd scheduled the hike and other physical activity on Friday and maybe Saturday as those days will be cooler.  Highs should be in the 70s both days, with a few low 80s Saturday in the warmer valleys. 

Then do the beach and boat day Sunday, as highs get right up there into the 80s. Despite Sunday's warmth, the humidity should stay low, which will make the days all the more pleasant. 

Low humidity also means temperatures tend to fall off quickly after sunset.  Saturday morning should be the coolest, with sunrise temporaries in the 40s for most of us. Warmer spots in the Champlain Valley would be in the low 50s. The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and New York's Adirondacks. could see some upper 30s.

The only negative I see in the weekend forecast is some wildfire smoke from Canada. It won't be as thick as it was last Saturday, which brought us some of the worst air pollution on record in Vermont. This time, the smoke might create some light haze, with air quality being so-so, and not particularly dangerous. We hope. 

NEXT RAIN?

Strong high pressure over northern New England and Quebec will be in no hurry to leave. That will keep us warm, with relatively low humidity until about midweek. 

There's mixed signals for the prospects for rain in the middle or end of next week. Some models keep high pressure strong over Quebec and just off the New England coast, which would deflect showers and thunderstorms away from us. 

Other models allow moisture to come up from the Mid-Atlantic states, which would allow a fair number of showers and thunderstorms to blossom toward Wednesday or Thursday. 

Either way, it doesn't look like any kind of real soaker. But that's a week away. Things could change. 

There are signs that the dry high pressure could eventually go offshore and merge with the famous summertime Bermuda High, which opens up a chance at another hot spell beginning in about a week. We're not sure yet, but the long range forecasts so far are leaning that way. 

Friday Vermont Early Afternoon Update: "Locally Significant Flash Flooding" Possible in Southern Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

Forecasters are now saying "locally significant flash 
flooding" is possible this afternoon and evening
in parts of southern Vermont, along with much 
of New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. 

UPDATE: 2:30 PM FRIDAY

Concern is rising in far southern Vermont for the risk of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.  

By 2:15 p.m, pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms had already developed over the southern Green Mountains.

A large patch of drenching rain, meanwhile, was moving in from the west, beginning to affect most everything south of a Burlington to Newport line,

The part of this drenching patch of rain heading into southern Vermont should intensify as it hits humid, more unstable air there. 

Plus, more torrential thunderstorms should develop, mostly south of Route 4. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, put out a statement warning of the risk of "locally significant flash flooding" in steep and hilly terrain of the southern Green Mountains,

This potential significant flash flooding extends into the Berkshires of Massachusetts and much of southern New Hampshire, especially the Monadnock Mountains. 

In these areas - again including the southern Green Mountains - local areas might see as much as three to five inches of rain of rain in just a few hours. Rainfall rates could briefly reach two inches per hour, which is a big indicator of a flash flood risk, 

The ground is also very wet already in southern Vermont, so it can't absorb all that much water.

Some flash flooding is possible as far north as central Vermont, but it won't be potentially as severe and widespread as in the south. 

Take this one serious, especially if you live in southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and the western half of Massachusetts. 

There were no flash flood warning in effect yet as of 2:30 p.m., but the worst of the rain hadn't arrived yet. The threat will peak between roughly at between roughly 3 to 8 p.m., but could linger beyond that.

If you live in an area prone to flash flooding, have a to-go bag ready now, and a planned route to escape.  Also, some of you in southern Vermont might be temporarily trapped behind washed out back roads, 

It's honestly too late to run out and get food and stuff in advance of any flooding. You don't want to be caught out on the roads, especially ones near small creeks and streams when the rain really hits. Those streams can go from placid brooks to roaring rapids sometimes within minutes.

Not every town in southern Vermont will see a flash flood. But it's time to be on your toes through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Just in case. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

Once again, some localized flood risks have popped
up today. In Vermont, southeastern parts of the 
state especially have a chance of local but
to widespread flash flooding. 

Thunderstorms in Vermont were fewer and further between on Thursday than expected, though some of the some of the widely scattered storms eded up being pretty strong. 

We have no reports of any damage so far, so it doesn't look like any of the storms achieved severe status. 

A couple strong storms originated in or near Addison County and crossed over the Green Mountains to areas north White River Junction. I'm sure some of those towns along the way did experience a rambunctious storm. 

90 DEGREES

The relative lack of thunderstorms Thursday also meant more sun, allowing Burlington to achieve its first 90 degree day of the season. 

That was a day later than expected.  Some forecasts called for 90 degrees on Wednesday, but the city didn't quite make it, stopping at 88 degrees.  The mostly sunny skies that lasted until at least mid-afternoon Thursday let Burlington briefly sneak up to 90 degrees in the mid-afternoon. 

The first 90 of the season has been coming earlier in the season recently, compared to, say a generation ago. That's owing at least in part to climate change. The first 90 of the season on Thursday was earlier than historically common. But compared to the last 20 years, it was sort of so-so early.

In the past decade, four of Burlington's first 90 degree day of the season came at a later date than June 5.  In 2015, the first 90 didn't hit until July 28.

The earliest in the season first 90 came on April 17, 2002. Burlington has had a handful of years, like 1998, 2000 and 2004 with no 90 degree days at all. 

TODAY'S STORMS

We're going to have two very different Vermonts today and tonight. Southern Vermont will be stormy and wet. With even a risk of some flooding and severe storms.

Northern areas, not so much, though a little rain should creep in. Right near the Canadian border it might not rain at all, or it does, it won't amount to much.

Which means all eyes are on southern Vermont.  Yesterday's weak cold front stalled and has become a warm front, which will drift ever so slowly into central parts of the state.

South of the warm front, the air is humid and unstable, which suggest lots of showers and thunderstorms. Especially this afternoon.

The principal threat is local flash floods. There's a level one marginal risk of flash flooding in central and southern Vermont, with a somewhat more substantial level 2 slight risk of flash floods in extreme southeast Vermont. (And in western Massachusetts and the southern half of New Hampshire.)

A few spots in southeast Vermont could see two to as much as three inches of rain in a short amount of time this afternoon, which suggests flash flooding is a possibility there.  It won't be widespread, but a few places are at risk.

I'd say the steep terrain of the eastern slopes of the extreme southern Green Mountains, and the lowlands just to the east where the water will flow has the best shot of flash flooding. 

I'd keep an eye on Whetstone Brook in and near Brattleboro today, and nearby streams, just to be on the safe side. No guarantees of flooding there, but if you've got stuff that can be easily moved away from the brook or those surrounding streams, do it this morning, just in case. 

There's no flood watch currently in Vermont, but flood watches are in effect immediately adjacent to the Green Mountain State in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

Another secondary problem in far southern Vermont is severe storms. A few could contain strong damaging winds, maybe a couple of microbursts. Nothing at all like Austin, Texas had on May 28, but a couple towns in far southern parts of the state could suffer some localized tree and power line damage. 

A level one marginal risk of severe storms, meaning isolated damaging winds at most, is in effect for areas along and south Route 4. As of early this morning, level 2 slight risk is up for central New England, just barely creeping into southeastern Vermont around Brattleboro and Guilford.  

SATURDAY

Believe it or not, Saturday is looking....OK. At least in the afternoon and evening. I'm not holding my breath, given our recently history, but at least some of us might enjoy some sun as the afternoon wears on and evening approaches.

At least it won't be a complete washout like last Saturday was. 

Southern Vermont will still have the worst weather in the state, just as they will today. It'll be a rainy morning, as Saturdays in Vermont now seem to be required to have rain. But skies should brighten by mid to late afternoon. Except maybe in far southeast Vermont, where it could remain cloudy all day. 

The further north you go, the less rain and the less chance of rain you'll see.  In fact, it's possible parts of Vermont close to the Canadian border might break the sacred Saturday "rule" and see no rain at all!

Bottom line. If you have outdoor plans Saturday in Vermont, the later in the day they start, they better off you'll be,

The only fly in the ointment later in the afternoon is a secondary cold front will come through. That could touch off a few isolated showers and storms, but nothing widespread at all.

SUNDAY

Another miracle might hit Sunday.  At least some of us in Vermont should end up with a Chamber of Commerce kind of day. You know, perfect for the tourists. After a comfortable night for sleeping overnight Saturday, Sunday's highs should reach the mid 70s, at least in the valleys. The humidity should stay nice and low. 

 Places away from the mountains should have mostly sunny skies, with just some puffy clouds around over the mountains, to make the photos and background for your selfies that much prettier. 

There will probably be still some Canadian wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, so the sky might not be a brilliant deep blue on Sunday. The blue might have that bit of a slate gray tint to it because of that smoke. I guess not everything can be perfect. Still, the smoke shouldn't be as thick as it was earlier this week, and I don't anticipate anything serious enough to prompt air quality alerts. 

If you're in the mountains, the skies could get a little cluttered with those puffy clouds in the afternoon, so the sun won't be consistent there. But it will still be nice. No rain!