Tuesday Vermont Forecast: Clearing Will Be Very Reluctant, But Nice Days Coming

Fall colors hinting around my house and dying flower
gardens signal the arrival of October this week. 
Gloomy weather should last much of today,
but much warmer weather by tomorrow, Thursday. 

The gloom and drizzle and light rain we had yesterday actually felt good, at least to me. 

The fall colors popped out brightly in the gray atmosphere. Between showers, it was nice to do a little fall cleanup outside without a hot sun blasting down on me.  

Looking ahead, there are a few changes to the forecast since yesterday, as is often the case, especially in the autumn.

TODAY

Today, the dreary weather will be very reluctant to leave. More reluctant than we thought yesterday. It looks like there might be some clearing in southern Vermont, away from the Green Mountains. 

But in general, don't expect much sun. If there is any real sun, it won't come until later in the day.  It also probably won't rain,  aside from some drizzle mixed with the fog this morning. 

The clouds will tend to be low and thick, so you won't see the mountaintops. Today is not the day to hike to summits for an expansive view of the fall foliage. 

With the clouds, high temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

WEDNESDAY

This part of the forecast has not changed since yesterday. The sun will come out,  though there might be quite a few high clouds. The sun should be able to break through that, though. Southerly winds should bring temperatures to near 70 degrees. 

In a hint of what's coming the next day, the air will begin to feel vaguely humid during the afternoon, but still not so bad.

THURSDAY

Another warm day. And humid. Thanks in part to of all things, Hurricane Polo, which smashed ashore in Mexico's Baja California early this morning. The remnants of the hurricane should be near El Paso, Texas of all places by noon tomorrow. Humid Pacific air will flow far to the north of that.  High pressure off the East Coast will also direct humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. 

The result might well be our last summer day of the year. (Though with El Nino raging, we could have a surprise warm day later in October, who knows?)  

Highs should get into the 70s, and dew points should get into the low and mid 60s. So those autumn foliage hikes might turn a little sweaty. 

Winds should pick up, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. It won't wreck the fall foliage, especially since the Champlain Valley is still generally green. 

FRIDAY

This will be another in a series of instances in which Vermont just misses out on a soaking rain. The remnants of Hurricane Polo will create a huge area with a risk of flooding in the United States. The flood potential  encompassing an enormous zone including all of Arizona and Mexica, along with southern Utah, then heading eastward into Texas and northeastward all the way to Illinois.  

Here in Vermont, despite the increased moisture from Hurricane Polo, and the humidity that will be in place, an approaching cold front won't give us all that much rain, at least as it looks now.  Heavy rain associated with the dead hurricane won't take it this far northeast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we might see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rain. Not sure if we'll actually get that, but we will take anything we can get. 

The front was originally scheduled to come through early Friday, giving us a nice, cool day. Now, it looks like it will come through during the day, keeping us mostly under the clouds. 

WEEKEND

We might eke out a nice Saturday, with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We have another chance of some showers Sunday.  It's a long way off, but so far, at least, it does not look like we'll see much rain. 

Frost Advisories In Vermont Tonight, Including Champlain Valley

Areas in blue are under a frost advisory tonight. The
Northeast Kingdom is not under the advisory because
the growing season has ended up there. But that 
region of the state will also deal with frosts 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon hoisted frost advisories for large swaths of Vermont tonight and very early Wednesday. 

Areas that might find at least a little frost early tomorrow morning are the Champlain Valley excluding the islands and central Vermont and the central Green Mountains. 

The Northeast Kingdom isn't under any advisories because their growing season is considered over. But up there, it'll be probably be at or below freezing in some spots, and near freezing in others.

This morning, I said that the Champlain Valley was probably safe from frost.  However, it became apparent this afternoon that the air is so dry, it will cool off rapidly this evening, which brings the risk into play. 

I still think frost in the Champlain Valley of Vermont will be very hit and miss, especially west of Route 7, which is closer to the lake. Still, anywhere in the frost advisory zone, it's probably a good idea to cover up tender plants or bring them indoors for the night. 

Despite it being slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon, there could be another frost risk tomorrow night, so keep those old sheets handy for the plants. 

Colder Regime Takes Over, Earlier Than First Thought

Frosted over leaves on a cold, but still snow-free
Saturday morning in St. Albans, Vermont.

Several days ago, I said the weather this December would be even more unpredictable than usual, and so far it's playing out that way. 

It looks like the guess work on how the rest of the month will go will remain extra tricky, too.

Long range forecasts issued in November suggested we'd have a cold December.  Those predictions flip flopped to warm as the month opened. 

But now that we're supposed to be in the midst of a warm spell, it has abruptly turned colder. Not super cold, but chilly enough.

Friday was the first day since November 29 that was cooler than average. Not by much, but it was on the chilly side. 

It was in the low to mid teens almost statewide this morning, and many of us won't make it out of the 20s this afternoon. It will sort of on the chilly side most of the upcoming week. But again, nothing that out of the ordinary. 

Even with the new chill arriving, the march into winter remains behind schedule. Friday was the first day this season that did not get above freezing all day. I checked back over the past 40 years and found only two years - 2015 and 1998 - that had a later first fully subfreezing day. 

In case you haven't noticed, there's not much in the way of snow out there, either. At least not yet. Meteorologists are still expecting a little light snow tomorrow afternoon and night, mostly south and west of Interstate 89. But nobodyi in Vermont  will receive more than an inch or two. 

Another storm might or might not come along at the end of the week. Some forecast models give us a snowstorm. Some give us a mix. Some give us nothing at all. Go figure.

All this unpredictability in the daily weather this month is ironically because of a rather well forecasted weather pattern.

It features a huge blocking high pressure system over and near Greenland that wants to help send cold air south into the eastern United States, and possibly provide an environment for snowfalls.

Meanwhile, a warm ridge of high pressure wants to make the eastern U.S. warm. Since I last wrote about this feature on December 4 the battle continues and the uncertainty remains. 

Record warmth has bathed the south  under that warm ridge that's causing the battle of seasons further north.

As the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang reports, Mobile, Alabama (85 degrees), Macon, Georgia, (83 degrees)  and Savannah, Georgia (86 degrees) had their hottest temperatures for any December date on record.  

It's been in the 80s on six days this month in Houston already. The high temperature of 85 degrees on Tuesday. That would have been Houston's hottest December day on record, except for the fact it got up to 87 degrees just last December. 

Although we don't know whether this weather pattern will ultimately lead to storminess here in Vermont, it is leading to bad weather in swaths of the nation.

Much of the western United States is dealing this weekend with snow and wind. In the northern Plains, a winter storm watch is in effect for the first half of the upcoming week. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast states are bracing for a possible tornado  and severe thunderstorm outbreak early next week