Tuesday Vermont Weather: Sunshine Prevails This Week, But What About That Weekend Nor'easter?

This is just one forecast for the position
of the expected nor'easter this weekend. 
It could come closer, giving Vermont
some rain, or it could be further out to
sea, resulting in a sunny weekend. 
At this point a flip of a coin is just
as good as a forecast. 

We endured another cool day Monday with  highs holding in the mid-50s north and central with a few low 60s south. 

The skies remained mostly cloudy, which was expected. Those clouds helped hold down the temperatures. 

It doesn't look like there's any frost around this morning in Vermont, but I noticed Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, got down to at least 31 degrees, which isn't at all odd for them this time of year. 

Overall, we're looking at sunshine most of the week, with some frosts risks in the cold spots. But a bit of a warming trend should set in during the week, too. We won't go back to summer. Instead, it'll be comfortable fall weather. 

We'll be playing nor'easter roulette this coming weekend. We know a nasty nor'easter will rev up off the East Coast this week, but whether it will affect Vermont all that much is still a very, very open question. Best guesses are still no rain, at least in the north. 

The worry is dry air, and relatively gusty winds from the outer fringes of the nor'easter could worsen the northern Vermont drought and expand it. And those winds could increase the fire risk

As always, let's do the daily forecasts

TODAY: 

A nice one. Much more sunshine than yesterday means highs should reach the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds raise the specter of scattered mostly light frost tonight. A lot of towns will be cutting it close. 

The expected low tonight in Montpelier, Newport and St. Johnsbury is 35. Island Pond should get to at least 32 degrees. Rutland is expecting 38, but valleys in the nearby Green Mountains will probably be colder than that. The Champlain Valley should be frost-free. 

WEDNESDAY

Another beauty. The day will start with that patchy frost and a lot of dense fog in the river valleys, which will burn off. Afternoon temperatures  should reach the mid and upper 60s. 

THURSDAY

Still sunny, with a risk of early morning patchy frost in the cold spots. We'll probably have a lot of patchy fog in the valleys again. It's peak season for that.  We'll feel the first hints of that nor'easter with a bit of an increase in north winds. It won't exactly be windy, but you'll notice a breeze. 

FRIDAY

The uncertainty increases. Maybe the clouds increase, too, in the south, we'll have to wait and see. Depending on the track of the nor'easter, there couple be a few showers and increasing winds and southern Vermont. It all depends on whether this thing wants to hug the coast to go more out to sea. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

An iffy weekend. Will the nor'easter come close enough to Vermont to give us some rain? Or will it be a whiff? Or something in between. 

The best guess is we'll have a breezy weekend, maybe downright windy in some spots, especially in the southern Green Mountains. Maybe some rain in southern Vermont, with a lesser chance north. 

This is such a tentative forecast. Don't yell at me if this is totally wrong. Computer models range from a complete miss with bright sunshine in Vermont to a miserably wet, windy weekend.  

We associate nor'easters with very cold air. Usually, even when a nor'easter misses Vermont, it pulls down some horrible frigid air from Canada. 

That won't be the case this time. That big, fat high pressure system anchored in Quebec is sitting there, slowly warming up in the September sun. That's why forecasters are telling us of a slow, if slight warming trend this week. 

The soon-to-be warm-ish Quebec high is huge, and is keeping any real early season cold stuck way up near the Arctic circle. That means the nor'easter doesn't have a chance at tapping into really cold air. If the sun is out this weekend, it'll be near 70. If it's rainy, it'll be near 60, or even in the 60s. 

Storms thrive on a cold/warm air clash. The reason why this one will develop is the Quebec high will have seasonable air to the west of storm. To the east is hot tropical air over ocean waters that are warmer than normal. That set up will help the storm develop nicely. 

Whether that matters to us in Vermont is unknown.