Nor'easter Still Being Unpredictable, But Vermont Likely To See Fringe Effects

The visible satellite photo early this morning for Vermont
and surrounding areas early this morning was interesting
The southwest to northeast oriented bands of clouds
were the outermost effects of that building nor'easter.
Those clouds that sort of look like cracks in
central Vermont and the Connecticut River
Valley was dense valley fog. 

We've got one more delightful fall day to get through before the weather goes downhill somewhat thanks to that big nor'easter we've been talking about all week. 

Vermont looks like it'll get mostly the fringe effects from this big storms. Meanwhile. the coast from Virginia to New England is bracing for coastal flooding and erosion, and high surf and strong winds.   

The nor'easter will move northward off the East Coast today and a good part of tomorrow. The computer models are now trending toward a westward hook that would bring the nor'easter to near or onshore of New Jersey or perhaps southwest Long Island. 

That's different from the westward hook into New England we saw on yesterday's forecast. 

This doesn't really change the forecast much for coastal areas, especially from Massachusetts south. 

If the westward hook into New Jersey happens, it could change things a little for Vermont. But again, no matter what happens, we're not feeling the full effects of the nor'easter. 

It still looks like southern Vermont will have the worst weather out of this. The further you head north, the less rain you'll see. North of Route 2, there's definitely a chance of some rain, but it might not be a washout up there.   

Here's how we think it will play out, based mostly on National Weather Service forecasting. Bear in mind this is a tricky forecast so things can still change

TODAY

I said above it will be delightful today, but perhaps not as perfect as yesterday. Thursday featured wall-to-wall blue skies after the morning fog burned off.

We started today with more valley fog, which was burning off as I wrote this. Judging from satellite images, some clouds will probably come into southern Vermont later this morning and gradually work northward. 

The northern half of Vermont might start to see at least some high clouds this afternoon but our weather as a whole today will be sunny and mild.   Highs should top out near 70, especially in the warmer valleys. 

SATURDAY

Most of us will have a breezy day with winds from the north or northeast as the storm draws closer. But southeastern Vermont looks like it might have a dramatically different day than the northwest. Down by Brattleboro,  and Wilmington and Springfield, it looks like a cool, rather rainy day with highs near 60. 

Once you get way up into the northwest, places like St.Albans and Swanton and the Champlain Islands, there could be some sun mixed with the clouds and highs will get to near 70 again. 

Places in between those two extremes will sort o have weather that is not as bright as St. Albans, but not as gloomy as Brattleboro. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Rainy and breezy to in some places windy in southern Vermont. The rain might even come down pretty heavily at times in far southeastern Vermont, depending on how the moisture flow with this nor'easter sets up. 

The amounts of rain would taper off as you head north and west, such that there might be only light showers north of Route 2.  This is a really tentative forecast, though, so expect surprises. Nor'easters are especially annoying and challenging for anyone trying to forecast them. 

If the nor'easter comes just a tiny bit further north than expected, more of Vermont gets a soaking rain. 

If the storm hooks to the left a little sooner than forecast, there'd be less rain and maybe even perhaps none at all once  you get close to the Canadian border. 

For now, the National Weather Service nor'easter rainfall roulette board gives extreme southeast Vermont more than an inch of rain from this storm. Very roughly south and east of a line from Rutland to St. Johnsbury gets at least a quarter inch of rain, with more than a half inch once you get down toward Ludlow and Springfield. 

Northwest Vermont should get less than a quarter inch, with some areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch or perhaps nothing at all.  However, a few computer models do have a band of rain spiraling all the way north to the Canadian border, so there's a chance of a surprise up there. 

It's too soon to tell whether this forecast rain map will turn out to be accurate or not. But chances are, you'll probably get a little less, or a little more rain than the map is telling us.  If you have weekend plans, expect rain southeast. Further north, have an indoor backup plan if you were going to do stuff outdoors. 

With the nor'easter perhaps hooking westward into New Jersey, at least maybe, that would give the wind flow up here in Vermont more of an easterly component. Which sets us up for the classic downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

I'm not expecting a wild western slopes windstorm, the kind we sometimes get in the winter with this type of storm. Even so, it could get pretty gusty, though, along the western slopes, especially in the southern half of the state. 

Wind gusts in some areas of southern Vermont, mostly on the western slopes could get to 40 or even 45 mph. That's enough for a few widely scattered  instances of tree branches coming down, or even an isolated power outage, but it won't he widespread.

EARLY WEEK

The weather models have our nor'easter near New Jersey Sunday and Monday, sitting and spinning and slowly weakening. Eventually, the remnants of the storm might slowly head off to the northeast. That would keep Vermont under the clouds, with maybe sone light showers. 

Temperatures early next week should be near normal, then maybe trending above normal by mid week. This time of year, "above normal" is low 70s.