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| Our nor'easter this morning looks almost identical to what it looked like yesterday morning except the center of it is just off the Jersey Shore. You can see an eye-like dot of clear skies at the center of the storm. |
Vermont remains on the edges of the storm. More on that below, but first, just a few of the storm headlines.
STORM LOSSES
At least one death and some injuries were attributed to the storm around New York City. A 56 year old man was killed in Brooklyn when a tree fell on him. Elsewhere in Brooklyn, four people, including two children, were injured by a falling tree at a playground.
In New Jersey, rescuers pulled nine people and a dog from flooded hotel rooms. By early this morning, 82,000 homes and businesses were without power across the Northeast.
Major coastal flooding inundated many homes and businesses along the Jersey Shore. Some homes had at least a foot of water inside. The inside of Surf City Marina on Long Beach Island, New Jersey was flooded for the first time since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Winds from the nor'easter were more damaging than usual right along the coastlines because leaves are still on the trees. The leaves act like little sails, pulling the tree laterally wind strong winds blow. Only about 2 percent of all nor'easters hit in September. The vast majority of them occur in the winter, when trees are leafless.
Nor'easters are usually large in area than most hurricanes, so this type of storm can often spread its damage over a wider area.
Today, the coastal flooding won't be as bad as Saturday's as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey a weakens. But heavy rain is still falling along the East Coast, so flooding from sources other than the ocean could be a big problem for the rest of the day.
VERMONT EFFECTS
As expected, it was rainy and gloomy in southeast Vermont Saturday, though not all that much rain fell down that way. Things improved as you headed northwestward. By the time you hit the northern Champlain Valley it was quite a nice day with breaks of sun and highs in the low 70s.
Today
Today, the rain bands from the nor'easter are making it as far north as the Quebec border. Rain today will be showery and pretty light in general, except in southeastern Vermont, where rain will be heavier.
It won't rain all the time today, but we'll have an ever-present risk of at least light showers. You'll have dry breaks in between, so you can sneak outside and do a little fall cleanup between the raindrops. North of Route 2, today's rain will amount to less than a tenth an inch, with a few places just getting just trace.
Southern Vermont looks like it will be wetter than the north, consistent with previous forecasts. They should see mostly a quarter to a half inch of rain by this evening with maybe a little more in the southern Green Mountains and maybe a little less up toward Rutland.
It will be cooler than yesterday in the north today under the clouds with highs in the 60s - still not bad for this time of year. Southeastern Vermont might hold in the upper 50s under thicker clouds and perhaps more persistent rain.
There have been some gusty winds along the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains, as expected. Overnight, there were a handful of power outages down that way. Those winds should diminish as we go through the day.
Monday
A little rainier in central and northern parts of the state than it's been, but this won't be super soaker up north, either.
The now much weaker nor'easter will move northeast through New England, sending more showers our way. Once again, the showers will be pretty light, especially north. Most of the northern half of the state should see maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. There will probably be a little more than that south.
Except in far southern Vermont, this definitely won't be the soaker we really, really need.
Under the clouds, temperatures will hold between 57 and 65 degrees during the day.
Tuesday
The remnants of the nor'easter should be heading off into Canada, leaving quite a few clouds over us here in Vermont during the day. We should have little or no rain, with highs in the 60s again
Wednesday-Thursday
A nice spell of warm weather, with highs reaching the low or even mid 70s both days under at least partly sunny skies.
Friday-Weekend
Much cooler behind a cold front which will unfortunately deposit little or no rain. Behind the front, sunshine will return, but it will be much cooler. We'll have to watch for frost again or places that haven't received it yet.
Goofy Computer Models
To give you an idea how outlandishly wrong computer models get in extended forecasts out more than a week, we present this morning's run of the American computer model. That model gives us in Vermont what looks like a snowstorm on October 9. Snowstorms are theoretically possible that early in the season, but I pretty much guarantee that won't happen in this instance.
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