Vermont November Gloom Continues; Late Week Storm Could Whiten Mostly High Elevations

A dull photo taken this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
representing the dull November in the states.

 All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray, as that famous Mamas and Papas song tells us. They might have well be singing about Vermont while they were California Dreaming. 

It's always cloudy this time of year, and November has really be showing its true colors, I mean color, the pat couple of grey, overcast days. This state of affairs should more or less continue this week, as it almost always does in November. 

There might be a few sunny breaks to tease us, especially in southeastern Vermont, so you have that to look forward to. 

We still have that late week storm we're watching and the computer models are still arguing about it.  The forecast is messy, and the resulting weather will probably be kind of messy as well. Let's get into it. 

TODAY

Another in a series of weather disturbances is approaching us from the northwest. It'll hit northern Vermont this afternoon and evening while pretty much ignoring the southern end of the state.

This is a no big deal weather system.  Showers will develop this afternoon. Some might even be briefly heavy-ish.  There could even be a couple spots with graupel mixed in. If you remember, graupel is that sleety, snowy pellets, kind of resembling pieces of styrofoam packing peanuts. 

Up north, rainfall amounts will be light again. Most places will get a tenth of an inch of rain or less. 

Southern Vermont, especially the Connecticut River Valley, could see some sun today. 

Today it will be sort of mild for November. Highs should reach 50 north to mid-50s south. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll be between weather systems. So, we'll endure typical November weather. Cloudy, breezy, chilly. Highs should stay in the 40s.

THURSDAY

Here's where things start to get interesting. 

We know a deep dip in the jet stream will form over the eastern United States, which means storminess.  How it develops is still in question, but it's beginning to look messy, with lots of moving parts. 

What follows is the first guess of what will happen. Expect changes in this forecast, as the the atmosphere will get complicated, with prediction models still struggling with the whole thing. 

It seems like moisture from the initial piece of storminess will come in Thursday. Early guesses are light rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains. Not super heavy, but maybe pretty steady.

 One question, as pointed out by WPTZ meteorologists, is that rain could change to snow even in the Champlain Valley Thursday evening. We're not sure yet. It's something to keep an eye on. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us, the American  computer model wants to linger the storminess over or near New England Friday and Saturday. What that means for us is unclear. 

More unsettled weather, for sure. But how much rain? How much snow? If it snows, where? Just the mountains? Or the valleys, too? We'll have to sort this out over the next couple of days. 

Nor'easter Beginning To Weaken After Causing Deaths, Destruction; More Rain In Vermont, Little North

Our nor'easter this morning looks almost identical to
what it looked like yesterday morning except the
center of it is just off the Jersey Shore. You can see
an eye-like dot of clear skies at the 
center of the storm. 

 Our nor'easter continues to cause problems along the East Coast today with strong winds, flooding rains and the risk of more coastal flooding. 

Vermont remains on the edges of the storm. More on that below, but first, just a few of the storm headlines. 

STORM LOSSES

At least one death and some injuries were attributed to the storm around New York City. A 56 year old man was killed in Brooklyn when a tree fell on him. Elsewhere in Brooklyn, four people, including two children, were injured by a falling tree at a playground. 

In New Jersey, rescuers pulled nine people and a dog from flooded hotel rooms. By early this morning, 82,000 homes and businesses were without power across the Northeast.

Major coastal flooding inundated many homes and businesses along the Jersey Shore. Some homes had at least a foot of water inside. The inside of Surf City Marina on Long Beach Island, New Jersey was flooded for the first time since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Winds from the nor'easter were more damaging than usual right along the coastlines because leaves are still on the trees. The leaves act like little sails, pulling the tree laterally wind strong winds blow. Only about 2 percent of all nor'easters hit in September. The vast majority of them occur in the winter, when trees are leafless. 

Nor'easters are usually large in area than most hurricanes, so this type of storm can often spread its damage over a wider area. 

Today, the coastal flooding won't be as bad as Saturday's as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey a weakens. But heavy rain is still falling along the East Coast, so flooding from sources other than the ocean could be a big problem for the rest of the day. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As expected, it was rainy and gloomy in southeast Vermont Saturday, though not all that much rain fell down that way. Things improved as you headed northwestward. By the time you hit the northern Champlain Valley it was quite a nice day with breaks of sun and highs in the low 70s.

Today

Today, the rain bands from the nor'easter are making it as far north as the Quebec border.  Rain today will be showery and pretty light in general, except in southeastern Vermont, where rain will be heavier. 

It won't rain all the time today, but we'll have an ever-present risk of at least light showers. You'll have dry breaks in between, so you can sneak outside and do a little fall cleanup between the raindrops. North of Route 2, today's rain will amount to less than a tenth an inch, with a few places just getting just  trace.  

Southern Vermont looks like it will be wetter than the north, consistent with previous forecasts. They should see mostly a quarter to a half inch of rain by this evening with maybe a little more in the southern Green Mountains and maybe a little less up toward Rutland. 

It will be cooler than yesterday in the north today under the clouds with highs in the 60s - still not bad for this time of year. Southeastern Vermont might hold in the upper 50s under thicker clouds and perhaps more persistent rain. 

There have been some gusty winds along the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains, as expected.  Overnight, there were a handful of power outages down that way. Those winds should diminish as we go through the day. 

Monday

A little rainier in central and northern parts of the state than it's been, but this won't be super soaker up north, either. 

The now much weaker nor'easter will move northeast through New England, sending more showers our way. Once again, the showers will be pretty light, especially north. Most of the northern half of the state should see maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. There will probably be a little more than that south. 

Except in far southern Vermont, this definitely won't be the soaker we really, really need. 

Under the clouds, temperatures will hold between 57 and 65 degrees during the day.  

Tuesday

The remnants of the nor'easter should be heading off into Canada, leaving quite a few clouds over us here in Vermont during the day. We should have little or no rain, with highs in the 60s again

Wednesday-Thursday

A nice spell of warm weather, with highs reaching the low or even mid 70s both days under at least partly sunny skies. 

Friday-Weekend

Much cooler behind a cold front which will unfortunately deposit little or no rain. Behind the front, sunshine will return, but it will be much cooler. We'll have to watch for frost again or places that haven't received it yet.

Goofy Computer Models

To give you an idea how outlandishly wrong computer models get in extended forecasts out more than a week, we present this morning's run of the American computer model. That model gives us in Vermont what looks like a snowstorm on October 9.  Snowstorms are theoretically possible that early in the season, but I pretty much guarantee that won't happen in this instance.