September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice.