September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

The Craziest Hurricane Conspiracy Yet As Erin Spins Off The Coast

Hurricane Erin off the East Coast in September, 2001.
Insert on upper left shows the World Trade Center
burning in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack.

Every weather event seems to bring a storm of wacko conspiracy theories each weirder and more outlandish than the rest.  

This time it's Hurricane Erin. I think, Get a load out of the one I saw this morning: 

As we know, strong Hurricane Erin was east of the Bahamas today, and is forecast to move northward, well off the U.S. East Coast.

 It will cause problems with coastal flooding and rip currents up and down the East Coast. The Outer Banks of North Carolina are going to get blasted by storm surges and battering waves. 

But thankfully, it won't be a direct hit, 

In September, 2001, there was another Hurricane Erin, which also moved northward well off the U.S. East Coast, passing far offshore of New York City on September 11, 2001.

That, of course was 9/11, the day of the worst terrorist attack in U.S, history, claiming more than 3,000 lives.

The conspiracy theory is that 9/11 was supposedly an inside job, and part of that inside job was 2001's Hurricane Erin.

According to this conspiracy, that version of Hurricane Erin was supposedly heading straight toward New York. But it '"unexpectedly" veered away from the city because the  government steered the hurricane away to allow for the clear skies that accommodated the attack.

I'm unclear from the conspiracy theory as to why our government would want to launch such a fatal attack on itself, but whatevs.

Now, there's another Hurricane Erin and the government is somehow plotting something, Even the name Erin is one code word they're using since both the 2001 and 2025 hurricanes are named Erin. 

Uh, yeah, right. 

It's unclear what nefarious plot is supposedly coming with the latest Hurricane Erin, but I'm sure they'll come up with something creative. 

I won't link to the source of this wild story, ss I don't want to give them any clicks or revenue. 

For those who want an explanation, nobody can change the path of a hurricane.  Nothing any human has invented can overcome the power of even a weak tropical storm, never mind a full blown hurricane. All you can do is predict where a hurricane is going and get people out of the way. 

There was nothing unexpected about 2001's Hurricane Erin. The National Hurricane Center and every other meteorologist worth their salt in 2001 knew days in advance that Hurricane Erin would miss the East Coast and stay well offshore. Which is exactly what happened. 

A cold front that passed through the Northeast, one that produced picturesque thunderstorms over New York City on the evening of September 10, 2001 helped steer the hurricane away. 

Those clear blue skies weren't created by man either. Often, a hurricane will help produce sinking air west of its center. Sinking air means clear skies. That's the weather pattern we had that day. 

If I understand our conspiracy theorists correctly (admittedly hard to do)  the claim is that both Hurricane Erins stayed or will stay offshore is highly suspicious, and can't happen without human intervention,

Actually,a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean that stays offshore isn't weird art all. It happens pretty much every year. If a storm system or cold front is timed right, which is often, a hurricane will respond by heading north, then northeast offshore instead of plowing into the East Coast. 

There's nothing on about the name "Erin" coming up again and again, It's not a code word, 

The World Meteorological Organization picks the names, and tries to use easy to remember monikers to help the public avoid confusion over which storm is which. 

All tropical storm names are recycled every six years. The only exception is when a storm is so powerful and so memorable that it is retired, to be replaced by another name with the same first letter.

There has not been a remarkable or particularly destructive Erin yet, so we had Hurricane or Tropical Storm Erin in 2001, 2007, 2013, 2019 and 2025. 

OTHER WEIRD STORIES

I've seen other conspiracy theories on 2001's Hurricane Erin.

From Facebook, meteorologist T.J. Del Santo posted an innocent and factually correct note and satellite photo of the 2001 Hurricane Erin.  Mixed in with comments containing personal remembrances of that day, we get this tin hat gem:  

"Erin was planned out with 9/11. Geoengineered to steer out to sea and bring in the North wind that kept all the harmful smoke/dust mostly offshore Had there been the traditional south-southeast wind, there would have been many more fatalities from inhalation."

If that wasn't bad enough, somebody responded, "Ridiculous - fatalities were the goal, the point of it all."

Sigh, 

I've also seen stories about how Hurricane Erin was created via AI somehow, that it's HAARP, a conspiracy theory in which the government is waging war on the public by unleashing storms on us.

I'm always amazed that people will gravitate to the most outlandish stories when scary or weird weather hits. But they ignore the one thing that humans are doing to make a lot of these storms scarier or worse or more destructive,

Which is climate change. Climate change is likely one of the reasons Hurricane Erin intensified so quickly last weekend. It's why other hurricanes lately do the same. And it's at least in part why hurricanes Helene and Milton were so awful last year,

But that's boring. Let's instead invent some far out story about the Deep State or George Soros in some evil laboratory, cooking up a storm named Erin to terrorize Americans for reasons that are never made clear. 

There's also an Instagram account who's character says HAARP -  again run by some evil government agency - was pushing Hurricane Erin toward the U.S. but some white knight group called The Collective successfully pulled its path away from the U.S. 

"The Collective" is still apparently trying to battle two more coming storms the government is hatching. 

Back in the real world, two new disturbances have come off the west African coast, as these things always do this time of year. These two disturbance might or might not naturally develop into tropical storms, and nobody is sure where they will end up if they form. 

Also in the real world, HAARP is a low-key scientific study of the ionosphere. It has no ability to control the weather, and the scientists working on HAARP have no apparent desire to alter the directions of storms or anything like that.  

The real world might be more boring than the fantasies conspiracy theorists weave.  But it's more fun being sane, to be honest.