September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

After The Nice Rains, Parts Of Vermont Still Need More. Instead, Get Ready For A Quick Heat Flash

NOAA's "water year" map. A water year goes from
October 1 to September 30. In the water year so
far, almost all of New England is behind
schedule with rainfall. Some places are eight
inches or more shy on rainfall. The only place
in New England that's near normal is northwest
Vermont. Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to see. 

We have a much more complete accounting of that nice rain we received this week in the increasingly Green Mountain State. We have a lot to be thankful for. 

The only disappointment was the heaviest rain avoided southern Vermont where it was more needed, but at least they got a decent wetting to get them through a few more days. 

The big winner in the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes seems to be Orange County. Good, because much of that county was regarded as dry in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor and the southern tip of the south was in drought. 

In Orange County and southern Caledonia counties, rainfall exceeded two inches, including 2.63 inches in Corinth, 2.43 inches in Stratford and 2.34 inches in Groton. 

Virtually all of central and northern Vermont received one to two inches of rain. 

Windham County in southeastern Vermont is the most droughty area of Vermont. They got anywhere between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, so, not bad.

Bennington County was regarded as abnormally dry, too, especially near the Massachusetts border. Unfortunately, the rainfall distribution there was wrong. They got anywhere from a quarter inch near the Mass border to an inch as you get closer to Rutland County to the  north. 

NEED STILL MORE RAIN

It might seem like the streams are running strong and the soil is mushy underfoot. Yet there's still a water deficit left over from last year, sort of our drought hangover.

NOAA watches something called the water year. It's the accumulation of precipitation - rain, melted snow and ice - from October 1 through September 30. 

Here in the Northeast, as of mid-May, most places are having a below normal water year, and some places are ridiculously below normal.  Parts of southern and eastern New England are more than eight inches behind normal as of now 

Here in Vermont, Bennington County is one of those places that is at least eight inches short on rainfall since the beginning of last October. Most of the remainder of Vermont is lacking in rainfall.  The rest of southern Vermont outside of Bennington County is   between four and eight inches shy on precipitation. North central and Northeast Vermont is one to four inches behind schedule.

The only lucky place in all of New England is northwest Vermont. Precipitation there since October 1, 2025 is pretty close to normal.

Next up, not much rain is in the forecast, but it's going to turn much warmer. And overall, warm air creates more evaporation than cooler air, so it'll dry us out faster. Some details: 

TODAY

We started the day mild and sunny, which is a fantastic way to start a Saturday. It'll get breezy, and you'll see more and more clouds mixing this afternoon. There's even a chance of a light spot shower late in the day, but most of us will say dry. Highs get well into the 70s, so that'll be a nice switch from what we endured all week. 

By the way, today, and over the next few days,  it will be quite a bit cooler near Lake Champlain. The water is still cold, and winds blowing off the lake will dramatically cool the air in places next to the lake. 

SUNDAY

The disturbance that would bring the widely scattered showers later today includes the lamest of cold fronts. So northern areas will probably "only" make it into the low 70s under sunny skies. Somehow, I think we'll endure those "chillier" conditions. Southern Vermont stays warm with highs in the 70s to around 80

MONDAY

Summer preview is on!  There still might be a spot shower early in the day north with a warm front passing through, but overall, sunny and breezy with highs in the low 80s in most valleys is on tap. In the grand scheme of things, low 80s isn't exactly hot, but we're not used to such temperatures, so take it easy with the heavy outdoor work

TUESDAY

It looks like it's going to be hotter and more humid. For now, forecasters are expecting highs right up there in the 80s. How hot it gets depends on afternoon clouds and the timing of scattered showers and thunderstorms  If it stays clear until later in the day, some areas could flirt with 90 degrees. If there were more showers and storms than expected, readings would hold near 80 degrees. 

Either way, it'll get kind of humid, so take it easy out there

WEDNESDAY

A wild card. It all depends when an expected cold front comes through. If it's late in the day, it'll be in the 80s again, and humid. A late day cold front also increases the chances of scattered strong thunderstorms. 

If the front comes through earlier in the day, the chances of big storms goes very much downhill. And you'll notice refreshingly drier air late in the day. Stay tuned on that one.

LATE WEEK

Definitely cooler, but not nearly as chilly as this week has been. Highs then should be in the 60s.

Impressive Rain Ending This Morning, Sharp Vermont Warmup Due, With Picky Details

National Service Weather radar shows moderate to 
heavy coming from New Hampshire and through all but far
southern Vermont around 9 p.m. last night. 

That rainfall yesterday and last night turned out to be impressive, and just the ticket for soaking gardens, crops and forests on the cusp of summer's heat. 

Complete rainfall totals weren't quite available yet as of 8 a.m. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury look like they have a storm total from yesterday morning to this morning of about 1.8 inches. 

Montpelier set a record for the wettest May 14 on record with 1.62 inches. We have a report from Woodbury of 2.19 inches. 

The moisture feed and the rain moved northwestward off the Atlantic through southern and central New Hampshire and across most of Vermont. 

In this type of setup, the Champlain Valley usually doesn't get as much rain because the Green Mountains block the moisture. But it looks like Burlington got a respectable 1.4 inches or so. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.62 inches. 

Instead falling in short, sharp bursts, the bulk of the rain fell over an 18 hour period, ensuring a lot of it soaked in rather than running off. 

Far southern Vermont - roughly south of Route 30 largely missed out on this moisture bonanza. Bennington only had 0.11 inches of rain yesterday and last night The lower Connecticut Valley was in the moisture feed early in the day, but the rain moved north of them .

It'll be interesting to see who got what amount of rain once the National Weather Service compiled the totals, probably later this morning or this afternoon. 

TODAY

Fuscia later season magnolia buds get set to bloom after
the soaking rains we just received in St. Albans, VT

That moisture feed this morning was now across far northern Vermont and southern  Quebec and much weaker as its source from the Atlantic Ocean is getting cut off. Another batch of light rain was moving westward across the northern half of New Hampshire. 

That means this morning will probably stay damp and drizzly and showery across most of Vermont.

 But the air mass is drying out, so the showers will, too. The forecast still calls for some sun this afternoon. Even so, some widely scattered showers might lurk around until sunset, as some instability will linger behind our storm. 

The partial sun should bring highs this afternoon into the 60s, which would make today our hottest day since Sunday. Yay! Even though mid-60s is still a touch cooler than normal for this time of year. But much warmer times are at our doorstep. Promise!

SATURDAY

Here comes the warmth. Strong May sun and southwest breezes will pump those temperatures up into the 70s. It'll be the balmiest day in nearly two weeks. But this is Vermont, so nice weather almost always includes an asterisk. 

That asterisk comes in the form of a weak disturbance sweeping in late in the day.  The air will be dry, so it will be hard to generate many showers. I'm guessing shower clouds might form late in the afternoon in some areas. 

Most of the rain from those showers will probably dry up on the way down. For those caught under these "showers" that means sprinkles, suddenly gusty winds and a brief, sharp drop in temperatures. 

The scattered showers could last into Saturday night. Many places won't see a drop of rain. Those who do get hit will see a trace to maybe few hundredths of an inch

SUNDAY

Mostly sunny skies again! And warm!  That disturbance from Saturday will include a very poor excuse for a cold front. Meaning highs Sunday should "only" be near 70 on Saturday in the north. It won't get any colder south, as highs could touch 80 in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.

MONDAY

A major warm front should pass through in the morning. Most forecasts call for no rain with the passage of this front. But I'm suspicious. Warm fronts that pass through in the morning ahead of a warm to hot spell usually kick off a few showers, mostly in northern Vermont. 

Given that history, I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots start out with showers Monday. But the afternoon should be sunny, breezy and warm. Could easily be the first 80 degree reading of the season in some parts of central and northern Vermont 

TUESDAY

This will be the first true summer day in most of Vermont. (It won't be the first in far southern Vermont, because they had a couple classic summer days in mid-April)

How hot it gets depends on whether we see showers and thunderstorms and if we do, when they'll arrive. If it manages to stay sunny all day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 90 degree readings in some of the broader valleys. 

 But  I kinda doubt that. Preliminary forecasts seem to indicate a messy area of slight instability that would create clouds and possible scattered showers and storms. So it will probably "only" be in the 80s. 

If you're planning vigorous outdoor work or exercise, you're not used to that heat. Take more breaks ad drink more water than you think you'll need.

LATER WEEK

At this point, Wednesday looks fairly warm, too. We have a decent shot of making it to 80 degrees. But a cold front will be approaching with a risk of showers and thunderstorms. Later in the week, we'll cool down again, but not downright chilly like we've seen this week. 

Instead, Thursday might bring us a brief moment of cool weather, as temperatures might not get out of the low 60. But then somewhat warmer air will quickly return. Not necessarily in the 80s, but seasonably warm, which means close to 70. 

The weather pattern that kept sending nippy air to us from Canada is kaput