Impressive Rain Ending This Morning, Sharp Vermont Warmup Due, With Picky Details

National Service Weather radar shows moderate to 
heavy coming from New Hampshire and through all but far
southern Vermont around 9 p.m. last night. 

That rainfall yesterday and last night turned out to be impressive, and just the ticket for soaking gardens, crops and forests on the cusp of summer's heat. 

Complete rainfall totals weren't quite available yet as of 8 a.m. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury look like they have a storm total from yesterday morning to this morning of about 1.8 inches. 

Montpelier set a record for the wettest May 14 on record with 1.62 inches. We have a report from Woodbury of 2.19 inches. 

The moisture feed and the rain moved northwestward off the Atlantic through southern and central New Hampshire and across most of Vermont. 

In this type of setup, the Champlain Valley usually doesn't get as much rain because the Green Mountains block the moisture. But it looks like Burlington got a respectable 1.4 inches or so. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.62 inches. 

Instead falling in short, sharp bursts, the bulk of the rain fell over an 18 hour period, ensuring a lot of it soaked in rather than running off. 

Far southern Vermont - roughly south of Route 30 largely missed out on this moisture bonanza. Bennington only had 0.11 inches of rain yesterday and last night The lower Connecticut Valley was in the moisture feed early in the day, but the rain moved north of them .

It'll be interesting to see who got what amount of rain once the National Weather Service compiled the totals, probably later this morning or this afternoon. 

TODAY

Fuscia later season magnolia buds get set to bloom after
the soaking rains we just received in St. Albans, VT

That moisture feed this morning was now across far northern Vermont and southern  Quebec and much weaker as its source from the Atlantic Ocean is getting cut off. Another batch of light rain was moving westward across the northern half of New Hampshire. 

That means this morning will probably stay damp and drizzly and showery across most of Vermont.

 But the air mass is drying out, so the showers will, too. The forecast still calls for some sun this afternoon. Even so, some widely scattered showers might lurk around until sunset, as some instability will linger behind our storm. 

The partial sun should bring highs this afternoon into the 60s, which would make today our hottest day since Sunday. Yay! Even though mid-60s is still a touch cooler than normal for this time of year. But much warmer times are at our doorstep. Promise!

SATURDAY

Here comes the warmth. Strong May sun and southwest breezes will pump those temperatures up into the 70s. It'll be the balmiest day in nearly two weeks. But this is Vermont, so nice weather almost always includes an asterisk. 

That asterisk comes in the form of a weak disturbance sweeping in late in the day.  The air will be dry, so it will be hard to generate many showers. I'm guessing shower clouds might form late in the afternoon in some areas. 

Most of the rain from those showers will probably dry up on the way down. For those caught under these "showers" that means sprinkles, suddenly gusty winds and a brief, sharp drop in temperatures. 

The scattered showers could last into Saturday night. Many places won't see a drop of rain. Those who do get hit will see a trace to maybe few hundredths of an inch

SUNDAY

Mostly sunny skies again! And warm!  That disturbance from Saturday will include a very poor excuse for a cold front. Meaning highs Sunday should "only" be near 70 on Saturday in the north. It won't get any colder south, as highs could touch 80 in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.

MONDAY

A major warm front should pass through in the morning. Most forecasts call for no rain with the passage of this front. But I'm suspicious. Warm fronts that pass through in the morning ahead of a warm to hot spell usually kick off a few showers, mostly in northern Vermont. 

Given that history, I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots start out with showers Monday. But the afternoon should be sunny, breezy and warm. Could easily be the first 80 degree reading of the season in some parts of central and northern Vermont 

TUESDAY

This will be the first true summer day in most of Vermont. (It won't be the first in far southern Vermont, because they had a couple classic summer days in mid-April)

How hot it gets depends on whether we see showers and thunderstorms and if we do, when they'll arrive. If it manages to stay sunny all day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 90 degree readings in some of the broader valleys. 

 But  I kinda doubt that. Preliminary forecasts seem to indicate a messy area of slight instability that would create clouds and possible scattered showers and storms. So it will probably "only" be in the 80s. 

If you're planning vigorous outdoor work or exercise, you're not used to that heat. Take more breaks ad drink more water than you think you'll need.

LATER WEEK

At this point, Wednesday looks fairly warm, too. We have a decent shot of making it to 80 degrees. But a cold front will be approaching with a risk of showers and thunderstorms. Later in the week, we'll cool down again, but not downright chilly like we've seen this week. 

Instead, Thursday might bring us a brief moment of cool weather, as temperatures might not get out of the low 60. But then somewhat warmer air will quickly return. Not necessarily in the 80s, but seasonably warm, which means close to 70. 

The weather pattern that kept sending nippy air to us from Canada is kaput 

A Damp, Dreary Saturday Morning Leads To A Showery Vermont Afternoon. Wet Week Ahead?

Screen grab from the WCAX web cam high up on
Mount Mansfield showed new snow on the trees
this morning. Yes, it's a chilly Vermont May morning. 

We're starting the day with light rain across much of Vermont. Especially northwest Vermont judging from the radar at 8 a.m. today. 

It's not amounting to much, with almost everyone receiving a tenth of an inch of rain or less. Some places so far might have gotten nothing. 

It's chilly out there, too.  As of 8 a.m., temperatures in most valleys were hovering near 40 degrees. 

That means snow was falling in the high elevations, so when or if it clears up a little later today,  you'll maybe see a snow capped Mount Mansfield, Camels Hump or Jay Peak. The WCAX web cam from high up on Mount Mansfield revealed new snow on the trees this morning. 

At slightly lower elevations, if you looked very closely this morning at the traffic camera on Route 242 in Westfield near Jay Peak, you could see snowflakes in the air, though it wasn't sticking.

But that traffic camera on Route 242 shows patches of snow in the woods from this past winter. Spring definitely doesn't arrive at the same time in different areas of Vermont.

For virtually everyone in Vermont, though, this Saturday morning is definitely not springlike. It'll slowly get better, though, as we go through the next few days. But you'll still be dodging raindrops for much of the next week or so. 

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us that those of us who are getting a somewhat steadier, light rain should see that disappear by late morning. But we're not done. It's never that easy. 

The air high overhead is frigid.  Which means, counterintuitively, that the sun this afternoon will help manufacture more clouds and showers. The sun will heat the ground, leading to updrafts. Since the air is so cold way up above us, the clouds will tower up enough to produce showers. 

They'll be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet this afternoon, some of us won't. It will be the luck of the draw. In a few cases the NWS says a few showers could be very briefly on the heavy side. And I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest of the showers contain harmless hailstorms sized smaller than peas   or graupel. 

Graupel is like frozen bits of snow that look like soft, white, tiny hailstones or bits of packing material. 

You've probably guessed by now that today won't be particularly warm. You guessed correctly. Highs today should get maybe into the low 50s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than average. Some areas north and in the high elevations might not get out of the 40s today. 

Temperatures won't have far to fall to get near the freezing point tonight, so there will be patchy frost. If you've put out sensitive plants, you're too early. Bring 'em in today. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the better of the two days. We still have a risk of a shower, but any showers will be very light and much less common than what we'll see today.  Most of us will stay dry. Sometimes the sun will be out, sometimes not. So it will be a difficult day to dress for. 

When the sun is out and you're between wind gusts, it'll feel nice. When the clouds are overhead and the wind blows a little, you'll shiver. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, though, so definitely bring the fleece if you're headed outdoors.  

NEXT WEEK

It looks like it might turn out to be quite a wet stretch, if a weather front stalls nearby as many of the computer models expect.

The nicer days of the week should be Monday and Tuesday. Both days will feature warmer air, and showers should be relatively few and far between. Highs should be in the low 60s Monday, so pretty close to average. 

On Tuesday, a cold front will be approaching. If the clouds and showers hold off until the end of the day, we could see highs well into the 70s. If it clouds up earlier, it would mean 60s to around 70.

What happens Wednesday into Friday depends on which computer model you believe. Some of the models have the front stalling somewhere over the region, and pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. 

If that happens, we could potentially see as much as one to three inches of rain  over those three days. 

Other models move things along a little faster, which would mean less rain for us. 

Almost all the weather models have us cooling down later in the week.  Certainly cooler than normal for May. That fits with the May predictions we saw even a couple weeks ago. Those forecasts said we'd have a cool first half of May, with maybe one or two warm days thrown in. 

Looks like that's coming true. 

Not All That Much Rain Fell In Vermont Yesterday, More Coming, Eventually

It's the peak of daffodil season around my St. Albans,
Vermont property right now. These daffodils were
soaking up this morning's sun. 

The rain we really needed yesterday was kind of a disappointment. It hadn't rained in eight days, so we really needed a soaker. 

It did rain, and the fire danger we dealt with for a week is pretty much gone for now. But it wasn't the deep drenching we'd hoped for, and had forecasted days earlier. A few days ago, it looked like we'd get 0.75 to an inch of rain. 

Instead, it was much less. Most of northern Vermont got about a quarter inch, with Burlington coming in with a measly 0.16 inches. Southern Vermont got a little less than a half inch.  Places to our west in northern New York and to our east in places like Maine got a good inch of rain. 

More rain is coming. Not much at first. But some signs point to some more soaking rains later in the week.  Maybe. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

A nice one, really. Skies should at least be partly sunny, and highs should reach the 50s in most places across Vermont. That's a little cooler than average for this time of year, but that's still not bad, right? There could be some upper 40s in higher elevations and some spots way up in the Northeast Kingdom.  It could touch 60 in warmer southern valleys.  

SATURDAY

Unfortunately, Saturday probably won't be as pleasant as we thought yesterday. We hoped for at least partly sunny skies with almost no showers. 

But a disturbance coming through should make us mostly cloudy and showers are pretty likely. Those showers should all be light, with most places getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain.  A few places might even manage to stay pretty dry. Hard to say what part of the day will have the most showers, so just be prepared. 

You'll get some stuff done outdoors between the raindrops, I imagine. There will be breaks of sun, especially in the broader valleys and in southern Vermont away from the Green Mountains. It'll also stay chilly for the season, with afternoon temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s.

The verdict: A mediocre spring day.

SUNDAY

Pretty similar to Saturday, except there's hope most of the showers will come in the morning. No guarantees, but fingers crossed!

NEXT WEEK

It looks like it'll warm up early next week. That ever-present chance of showers will keep on going, but temperatures should bounce back into the 60s. It could flirt with 70 on Tuesday in the warmer valleys. 

It looks like a cold front might stall somewhere in the Northeast during the middle and end of next week If it stalls near Vermont, we'll get some heavy, soaking rain. If it stalls to our west or our east, not so much. We'll just have to wait and see how that works out. 

Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

How Henry The Weather Dog Endured His First Winter, Was Unimpressed By It, But Came Out Victorious

Henry the Weather Dog, with a "What am I doing here?"
look on his face in early December, the start of the first
Vermont winter. He gradually grew accustomed to it, sort of.

Time for a little fun. And a cute little video at the bottom of the post to illustrate everything. 

I'm sure people who have seen this blog thingy have seen images of my co-worker and close friend, Henry the Weather Dog.

He took on the weather watching job here in St. Albans last May, not long after Jackson the Weather Dog passed away after 14 years of exemplary service. 

Henry proved very much up to the task even though he, like Jackson, hated rain. I guess rain messed with both their hairdos. Or their aura. Or something. 

Henry is a South Texas dog, hailing from San Antonio He was used to hot weather and sunshine. 

He was in luck not long after he moved to Vermont. His favorite weather is warm sunshine. Actually hot sunshine.  He could spend hours basking in sun, As Henry soaked up the sun's heat, I told myself he was helping me study how the sun's intensity changed, how it affected our temperature, and humidity. And whether it would help produce thunderstorms, which are my favorite kind of weather. 

The thunderstorm never really came. During the summer and fall, a severe drought took hold. So did unusually high temperatures. Sometimes record highs. While his humans wilted in the heat, Henry thrived in it. He must have thought Vermont's climate was just like what he experience in the torrid San Antonio summers.  

Boy, was Henry in for a surprise! It abruptly turned colder toward Halloween. Henry had never seen snow before. How would he handle a Vermont winter?

The answer came in November and the answer was: Not great. It was bad enough when we had a dusting of snow on November 9. His reaction, like mine, frankly, was "What is this shit?" Except he'd never seen it before. If the snow as a movie, he'd give it a zero on Rotten Tomatoes. Given a chance, Henry would literally throw rotten tomatoes if it would make the snow go awy. 

Henry is a little guy, so a couple days after that his introduction to snow flurries, we got our first big snowstorm of the season. Nearly a foot of snow fell. Henry was not having it. 

Henry never came around to really love the snow in our long, cold winter. It seemed the snow would never melt. But ever the trooper, he found the bright side of it. 

He discovered critters hid under the snow. He could hunt! That was his favorite winter activity. Twice this winter he dug his snout into the snow and murdered two voles (I sanctioned the crimes, so all is good). I dug paths through the snow, so he can follow his nose and track where everything has gone. 

As the winter cold deepened, his visits outdoors shortened. He spend a few seconds to confirm it was below zero outside, and then he scooted right back inside to burrow into his cozy blankets. 

Even so, Henry has been productive. He ate ice off of the driveway, doing his part to make the pavement safer. He kept predators away. Deer and rabbits, desperate for food because of icy snow covering the ground for so long, decimated some of my hydrangeas. 

It was only 20 degrees or so today, but the March sun
is feeling warmer. So Henry the Weather Dog is 
lingering outside a little longer now that the
sun and the pavement feel warmer 

Henry is trying to save the hydrangeas by peeing around them to provide a deterring scent.

 On several occasions, most recently yesterday, he saw deer approaching the house and barked and snarled them back deeper into the woods. Don't worry, he was on a leash, he doesn't chase deer into exhaustion.

Both Henry and I have noticed the sun getting stronger as we head into March. 

It was only 20 degrees or so this afternoon, but the March sun actually felt kind of warm. Henry sat down, lingered on a dry spot in the driveway, sat down, closed his eyes....and basked. 

Spring is coming. Eventually.  

The deer will go away like they do every spring, to be replaced by hordes rabbits, which he will gleefully flush from the gardens. 

Henry has found his home. Despite its drawbacks, he tells me he's going to continue on as my weather dog for quite some time yet. He deserves a raise. 

Video: Henry's journey through his first Vermont winter. He wasn't always happy about it, but he persevered. Click on this link to see the video, or if you see the image below, click on that.

 

The Vermont Sky Was A Strange Color This Morning: Blue!

Skies beginning to clear late yesterday afternoon
in St. Albans, Vermont. That darker stuff you
see at the top of the photo is still hanging off 
the eaves of my house. We still have snow
on the ground around here. 

 I awoke this morning here in St. Albans, Vermont to find quite a bit of blue sky.

Aside from a few glimpses of sun last Saturday, this is the first time the sky was truly mostly clear since November 8. That's a long time to be under the clouds, so it was almost shocking to see the blue skies this morning. 

Also shocking were the morning temperatures. The clear skies overnight allowed readings to really drop to easily the coldest so far this season. 

Most of Vermont was in the teens. Burlington was down to 21 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was just 3 degrees above zero.

A few spots got particularly cold because they had snow cover, which tends to promote even chillier nights. By the way,  Mount Mansfield set another record for the date yesterday for deepest snow cover, with a depth of 39 inches. 

That's the third deepest snow on record. WCAX meteorologist Gunner Consol did some checking. He found that of the 10 Novembers with the deepest snow, seven of them went on to have above average snow depths later in the winter, and three of them were below normal. 

These temperatures actually aren't strange at all for this time of year. (The record low in Burlington today is 7 above, so we really missed that by a large margin.

The chilly November we've endured so far has been mostly a function of cold daytime highs. Nights have been relatively mild. Finally seeing a bonafide cold morning is a bit of a shock to the system.

The mostly clear skies that helped make last night and early this morning so cold will help today warm up some. The sun angle is low, so it can't warm us up the much. But the sun will still give it a try. Which means by afternoon we should be well up into the 30s. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're still looking at a break from "exciting weather" for the next few days. The atmosphere is still rearranging itself for the next barrage of storms that might (or might not) hit once we get into December. 

In the meantime, only little systems will come through. We'll still see some sun tomorrow in case you miss it today. A weak thing will come through Friday with a little light rain, which might start off as a bit of a mix way up high in the mountains.

This coming weekend will be pretty average for this time of year.  We won't exactly see clear skies. but the sun will be out part of the time during our short days, especially on Saturday. 

You usually can't expect balmy weather for this time of year, so highs will only be in the 35 to 45 degree range, depending on if you live in a traditional Vermont ice box or the state's banana belt towns. Overnights will get into the 20s. 

Killington and Jay Peak will be open for business this weekend, so if you want to get some early skiing or riding in, go for it. (Friday's rain won't melt much snow up there).

Our next shot at any storminess would come next Tuesday night or Wednesday. It's too soon to tell what kind of storm, how big it will be, or even whether it will actually affect us here in Vermont. 

One Of Vermont's Sunniest Autumns Ever Finally Gives Way To Clouds

The setting sun briefly lit up these trees in St.
Albans, Vermont late Tuesday afternoon, but you
can still see the thick gray clouds in the background.
It has finally gotten cloudier in Vermont in recent
days, but unfortunately not much wetter. 

Vermont has a cloudy reputation. 

No matter the time of year, chances are, if you make outdoor plans, you'll end up under at least partly cloudy skies if not an overcast.

But in the late summer and autumn drought, it was one sunny day after another. It was like Home On The Range, where the skies are not cloudy all day. It felt like California weather moved to Vermont. 

By my rough, unofficial count, 19 days in both August and September were mostly sunny to clear. Ten of the first 12 days of October in northern Vermont were also clear to at least mostly sunny.

Cloudy Vermont usually starts to get even more overcast around the autumn solstice. Late autumn through early winter is usually the cloudiest part of the year in the Green Mountain State. 

Sometimes in late October, November and December, you can go a week or even more without seeing the sun. This week, a little belatedly, those clouds have finally arrived.  It's not that we won't see the sun ever again. It's just that it won't be as frequent. 

Too bad that so far, those clouds aren't accompanied by much desperately needed rain. 

We did have a solid overcast Monday and Tuesday. For most of us, yesterday was as gloomy as it can get.  We had low clouds, fog, a little drizzle. Northwest Vermont had a glimpse of sun right before sunset, but that was about it. 

That drizzle didn't amount to much. Between Monday and Tuesday, Burlington only had 0.05 inches of rain.   My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans did better, sort of, collecting 0.22 inches over the two days. Montpelier managed to receive 0,26 in those two days.

That's not exactly a drought buster. We need a drenching! We're still in search of it.

LOOKING AHEAD

Clouds will hang tough today and tomorrow, but they won't yield any rain aside from an isolated sprinkle over the hills. 

A cold front blew through early this morning, sweeping away any lingering fog and drizzle. Today and tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy skies for most of us, chilly temperatures and a stiff north wind that will make it feel even colder. 

High temperatures will barely make it into the low 50s today and tomorrow. Tonight will go into the low and mid 30s. Thursday night will drop us into the mid 20s to low 30s. 

The summer that lasted into October is definitely over. 

We'll see some breaks of sun both today and tomorrow, especially in the broader valleys and in southeastern Vermont. Tomorrow will be the sunnier of the two days. 

The sun should be back in full force Friday, Saturday and part of Sunday amid a warming trend. Saturday will be the pick of the week with lots of sunshine and temperatures near or a little above 60. Sunday will be even warmer, as some places could touch 70. But by afternoon, it looks like the clouds will be coming back. 

Another storm system should come through Sunday night and Monday. We're still getting hints we could see a decent, though not huge amount of rain then. 

I might not believe it until I see it. We've been burned many times before over the past few months, where we thought we had a good shot at seeing a soaking, and nothing happened. 

On the other hand, solid doses of rainfall on September 25 and October 7 briefly stalled the drought's worsening trend. If Sunday night and Monday are the start of a wetter trend, that would be terrific.

What I'm seeing, though are signs of a cloudier, but not necessarily super wet weather pattern heading through the end of the month. A handful of models bring a former hurricane near New England toward the end to October, but that type of specific long range forecast is seldom accurate. 

My advice? Keep doing those rain dances. 

 

Drought, Wildfire Risk Back In Vermont

Fire danger in Vermont is back to high again.
Rain last week tamped the fire danger 
down a little, but it has dried out
again. Breezy weather won't help. 

The dampness from the rain we had last week has dried up in Vermont and we're back to our regularly scheduled drought. 

I noticed I was once again stirring up a lot of dust working in my St. Albans yard yesterday. 

The fire danger in Vermont is back to high again, after dropping to "moderate" for a few days after the rain.  

Today won't help. A dry cold front went through this morning, and all it will do is drop temperatures somewhat and make the winds pick up. Gusts to 25 mph or so could fan flames. 

Luckily, the winds shouldn't get extremely strong, so that helps. The humidity will be quite low, but not as low as it can possibly get.

Which means we're not really in a worst case scenario for wildfires today and tomorrow, the but the risk is definitely heightened. 

Make sure you don't send any sparks flying to start a blaze that could spread pretty quickly. No burn piles or camp fires, either. A statewide burn ban remains in effect.

Already, just this morning, I saw a report of a brush fire near the Ben & Jerry's plant in St. Albans. Early reports are that blaze was quickly contained. 

Yesterday afternoon, a reported vehicle fire in Alburgh was spreading into a field. That fire, too, was quickly controlled. 

Tomorrow will be breezy, too, so we won't see any improvements then. 

There has been an increasing number of brush fires in Vermont this month, but luckily all have been contained pretty quickly. At least so far. 

Through September 19, 65 fires were recorded in Vermont this year. As of yesterday, that number had increased to 73. However, only 57.47 acres have been burned so far this year through yesterday. That's just four or so acres more than the total on September 19.  

After sunny, cool, dry weather for the next few days, it will stay sunny and dry, but turn warm again over the weekend and early next week. Warmer weather accelerates evaporation, so that's not good.  However, if ay new brush or wildfires start, I don't see any strong winds to fan flames until maybe next Monday, October 8. 

It still doesn't look like Vermont will see any showers until around Tuesday, October 9. but early guesses are those showers will probably be on the light side. 

Remarkable Vermont Temperature Crash On Friday, But It Won't Last

Some interesting patterns in an otherwise dull gray
overcast in St. Albans, Vermont late Friday afternoon,
Friday was much cooler than the most of the rest of
our sticky, steamy July was. 

Well, Friday was a change, that's for sure.  

Unlike most of Vermont's July, which featured a lot of warmth and humidity, it got downright chilly.  Especially under the rain clouds in southern Vermont. Not that I'm complaining. 

Looking at the receipts, the change in the weather was striking. Especially for summer, when there's usually not a lot of variability in temperatures. 

Springfield, Vermont really has had a southern flavored summer so far, enduring 15 days so far this year of 90 degrees or more,. 

On Thursday. it was 90 degrees at 4 p.m. in Springfield.  Exactly 24 hours hours later, at 4 p.m. Friday, it was 62 degrees. That 28-degree drop must have been a shock to the system.

Over in Bennington, it was only 61 degrees at 4 p.m. In Vermont this time of year, it should be at least 80 degrees at that hour. 

As expected, the heavier rain Friday was confined to far southern Vermont. Bennington picked up 1.19 inches, and Woodford State Park had an inch.

Once you got about 20 miles north of Route 9, precipitation was much lighter. Townsend and Springfield only had a quarter inch of rain. Rutland had only 0.02 inches. North of that, just sprinkles. 

Away from Vermont, also as expected, there was flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. Like there's been a zillion times this summer, it seems. 

Back here in the Green Mountain state, skies cleared even faster than expected Friday evening, so temperatures were able to get pretty cool by this morning, especially along and north of Route 4, where it was clear the longest. Most of northern and central Vermont was down in the 40s. 

The perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 37 degrees. Burlington was at 51 degrees at 6 a.m. today, the coldest temperature there since June 3.

COOL AT FIRST  

The peak of summer is over, and temperatures Friday and this morning seem to prove it. But summer is not done with us, at all.  We have a lot of warm air to get to. Eventually. 

The dreariness we saw Friday is gone. It's back to bright sunshine, which will boost afternoon readings back up into the 70s.  That's still a little cool for this time of year, but not be that much. A few puffy clouds will grace our  blue skies. today, so it's be pretty out there.  We'll only have a  faint hint of that persistent wildfire smoke from Canada.

Dawn Saturday will be just as chilly as this morning. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will ensure that. But another sunny day Saturday will bring temperatures well into the 70s to near 80. The wildfire smoke might be a little more noticeable than today, but not so thick as to be a major health hazard. 

Saturday night will be another cool, comfortable night.

THE WARMUP

This cool spell will be short-lived, much shorter than forecasts from about a week ago indicated. This is one persistent summer.

By Sunday, we'll be back in the 80s as that cool, big high pressure moves off to our east a little. Every day next week will be in the 80s for most of us. There could even be a 90 degree reading in hot spots like Springfield. 

Usually, in the summer, once big high pressure passes to the east, both temperatures and humidity surges

This time the temperature will definitely go up, but the humidity will stay pretty reasonable. Dew points near 50 today and tomorrow will rise to near 60 or starting Sunday and stay that way going through at least Wednesday. That's vaguely humid if you're sensitive to it, but it's nowhere near oppressive and awful.

The humidity won't go up much because the strong high pressure that's causing this long period of sunshine and dry weather will stay near Quebec and New England. It won't have a good connection to the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. 

Forest Fires

The long stretch of mostly sunny, dry weather, with minimal chances of showers, means we'll have to watch for forest fire hazards. We already had a forest fire in Fair Haven last week that covered at least 12 acres. The was a small brush fire in Alburgh a couple days ago. 

I have a feeling that some errant camp fires or backyard burns or flicked cigarettes could touch off a few more fires in and around Vermont this week. It won't be anything cataclysmic like what's going on in Canada, but we still don't need to add to the problem. 

There are signs we could see a period of hot, and notably more humid air toward the end of next week. That's a long way off and things could still change. 

But it'll be awhile before we see the cool, brisk and crisp breezes of autumn. 

It won't be  until later next week that the humidity will be able to surge in.

After A Stormy Vermont Thursday, A Delightful Fourth, And Then Summer Returns

The first round of strong to severe thunderstorms
approaching South Burlington, Vermont early
Thursday afternoon. The storms caused scattered
wind and hail damage throughout the state, and 
disrupted some pre-Fourth celebrations 

 That NOAA outlook for yesterday indicating Vermont and the rest of New England should watch out for severe thunderstorms certainly came true. 

Numerous reports of wind damage and hail came in from all six New England states, along with New York and New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. 

Here in Vermont, two rounds of strong storms hit, one early in the afternoon, the next toward evening. 

The evening round surprised me a bit because it was the stronger of the two, and came after cooler air had already started arriving. 

It shows that some summertime weather disturbances can really pack a punch, even if they're not really feeding on hot, humid air to power them. 

Two rounds of damaging storms blew through Thursday. 

The first round in the early afternoon mostly affected mostly northern Vermont, knocking down trees near Keeler Bay in the Champlain Islands and cutting power to areas in and around St. Albans. The early afternoon storm knocked over a tree onto a parking lot at the University of Vermont, damaging a car.

That first line of storms made its way down to Rutland County by mid-afternoon, dumping hail. Hail the size of ping pong balls pelted East Wallingford, and quarter sized hail hit Danby. I'm sure a few people there have dented cars this morning.  

The second batch of storms roared out of New York State, crossed Lake Champlain and basically traveled down Interstate 89 before cutting through east central Vermont.  Winds at Sand Bar State Park in Milton gusted to 58 mph.

 More trees and wires came down in parts of Burlington, and in Essex, Montpelier and certainly a few other places.

At one point Thursday evening, about 8,500 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont.

Burlington does its fireworks display on July 3 and a crowd had already gathered at the city's waterfront when this storm hit. The storm prompted a hasty evacuation as lightning crackled overhead. The storms moved on pretty quickly, so fireworks later in the evening went off without a hitch, however. Montpelier also cut off its Fourth of July festivities Thursday due to the severe weather. 

 That second round of storms brought some cold air down from aloft. Thursday evening was chilly!  Temperatures were only in the upper 50s in parts of the state in the hours before sunset. 

Overall, Thursday was one of the busiest and most disruptive storm days in Vermont's 2025 severe weather season

TODAY/WEEKEND

Today, the Fourth of July, will certainly not be one of the stormiest days of the summer. 

There are a bunch of so-called "fair weather clouds" out there. Air high above us is still chilly. The strong early July sun creates updrafts of air. Moisture in that rising air condenses into clouds once it hits the cooler air, so you get some clouds. 

The sun will be in and out all day. The sunniest area will be the Champlain and Lower Connecticut River valleys.  The cloudiest areas will be in the Green Mountain and Northeast Kingdom. But everyone should see at least some sun for the rest of the day. 

Towns holding fireworks displays this evening should be A-OK, with partly clear to clear skies and great visibility. You might want to bring a light jacket. Temperatures should drop from the 70s to the low and mid 60s after sunset. Those temperatures should bottom out in the 50s by early Saturday morning, with some 40s in the cold spots.

Saturday looks awesome with generally sunny skies, and temperatures in most spots reaching the 80s. 

We're still looking at a brief squirt of hot,  humid air Sunday. Many Vermont communities will make it to at least 90 degrees.   

Vermont Weekend Rain Streak Lives On, But Weather Will Be Decent. Meanwhile, Baked, Weird Alaska

The sky over St. Albans, Vermont around 7 a.m. tells the
weekend weather story. The darker clouds on the left
are toward the south, the blue skies are to the north.
Those blue skies will spend today fighting their 
way southward across the most of the 
Green Mountain State today. 

The long streak of consecutive weekends with rain or snow lives on in Vermont! This is now officially the 26th consecutive weekend with precipitation in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Um, yay?  

A period of light rain early this morning in Burlington deposited just 0.05 inches of rain.  That's actually a tiny bit more than the trace Burlington had last weekend. 

Up here in St. Albans we had just a few raindrops around 6 a.m.today. Not even really enough to make the driveway look wet.

But don't worry, this will still be the nicest weather weekend Vermont has seen in ages. Even if conditions aren't perfect. 

First of all, it was such a relief on Friday to look over at the Green Mountains and they looked......green.

The main thing was you could actually see them, as the wildfire smoke that has been plaguing our area finally got flushed out by clean northerly winds yesterday. There was so little haze left that you could clearly see the lush greenness of our hills and forests in all their summer glory. 

FORECAST

The great news is we're getting the rain out of the way early and we can go on with the weekend. Hell, most people were still sleeping when it rained around here early today, so it doesn't matter. 

Overcast skies will slowly clear north to south today.  Blue sky was already starting to show up over St. Albans as of 7 a.m.

The north should have a pleasant, largely sunny day. It'll take longer for the clouds to clear in the south. If you're down around Brattleboro or places like that, it could take most or all of the day before you get some sun. 

It'll be cool for the season today, with highs only in the low 70s under the sun north and 60s under the clouds south. 

Tomorrow (Sunday) still looks pretty damn good, too. Not perfect, but good. It'll be partly sunny once again, with more clouds predominating in the south again. It'll stay cool with highs only in the low 70s.

There's a very slight chance of a shower Sunday.  But if you do get unlucky enough to see rain on Sunday it would probably amount to just a some sprinkles that last a few minutes.  

It still looks like it will get warmer and more humid as we go through the upcoming week. The ever-present risk of showers and storms will be there, mostly in the muggy air Wednesday and Thursday, 

Over this weekend, you might see just barely some hints of smoke from time to time in the atmosphere over Vermont this weekend, but it will be much, much better than it's been. Air quality here in Vermont will be fine.

For now, winds are taking much of Canadian wildfire smoke northwestward toward Alaska. 

AN ALASKAN EXCURSION

As an aside, things have gotten strange up in Alaska. On top of the smoke, we now have a baked Alaska situation, if you will. A first-ever heat advisory is in effect for tomorrow and Monday for a big stretch of central and eastern Alaska. Temperatures will be between 85 and 90 degrees, which isn't that bad by our standards but torrid for Alaska. 

Fairbanks, Alaska is forecasting high temperatures in the 80s daily through at least Friday. Normal highs there this time of year are in the upper 60s.

Meanwhile, much of far northern Alaska is under a flood watch. The snow pack up until now on Alaska's North Slope has been unusually deep and thick  and persistent for this late in the season. The big warm spell now moving into Alaska will rapidly melt this snow to cause flooding. There's still actually ice on the rivers up there, too, so ice jam flooding would also be a problem. 

So, complain all you want about Vermont's stretch of rainy weekends. At least we got rid of our ice jam and snow melt flood issues way back in mid-March. 

Forecasters Change Their Tune: Maybe A Decent Vermont Weather Weekend For Once?

High clouds coming from the south Friday morning
battle dry air coming from the north over St. Albans,
Vermont. Also notice there's much less wildfire haze
in the sky. It looks like the dry air will mostly but
not completely win this weekend, giving Vermont
the rare treat of a decent if not perfect weather weekend.

Could it be?

Meteorologists have backed way off on the gloomy, damp projections they had for this Saturday and their accompanying "meh" forecast for Sunday.  

Not they're calling for something that is now rare in Vermont. A fairly decent weather weekend. 

It won't be perfect, mind you. A little rain could easily show up on Saturday, at least in parts of the state will be rather cloudy on Saturday. And skies won't necessarily be crystal clear on Sunday.

Plus, it'll be noticeably on the cool side for mid-June.  So it won't be a spectacular beach weekend. But a comfortable one for other outdoor activities, which is nice. 

On top of that, you'll be able to breathe some relatively fresh air for a change. The wildfire smoke that's been giving us lots of haze and bad visibility and rather unhealthy air to breathe will be greatly diminished. If not almost gone entirely. 

The streak of 25 consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least in Burlington, might actually end Saturday and Sunday.

There is a 50/50 shot at some light rain Saturday morning in the Champlain Valley, which would keep the streak going.  

THE DETAILS:

Just as meteorologists have been saying for days now, a west-to-east, nearly stalled weather front should drape itself from the Midwest to the somewhere around the mid-Atlantic States this weekend. 

At first, it was thought moisture streaming up and over that front would give us a chilly, rainy Saturday. But that moisture, at least up here in Vermont, appears as if it will be sputtering. And that moisture will be battling dry air that will insist on coming south from Quebec over the weekend. 

The result will only be some light showers. And most of those light showers would come through tonight and the first half of Saturday.  

As has been the case recently, the weather up north will be better than conditions in southern Vermont. 

Whatever rain falls should be light everywhere. But it would range from maybe just a few raindrops up by the Canadian border to perhaps as much as 0.2 inches down around Bennington and Brattleboro.

The showers should tend to dry up everywhere in Vermont Saturday afternoon, but more so in the north. Clouds will linger south, but some sun should break through north. Which means it will actually be a bit warmer the further north you go.

Parts of southern Vermont should only make it into the low 60s for highs. Low elevations north of Route 2 could reach the low 70s.  Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday

Sunday should have some sun, some clouds, and reach the low 70s, so again, not bad! There is a low chance of a scattered light shower here and there, but most of us will stay dry. 

Looking ahead to next week, it looks like day by day it will slowly turn warmer and more humid. Every day holds a chance of showers, but skies should be rain-free most of the time.  We'll have to keep a careful eye Wednesday and Thursday.

By then, it will be quite warm and quite humid, which could set the stage for some risk of hefty thunderstorms Wednesday and especially Thursday. We don't know whether that will happen just yet. That would depend upon the timing of weak weather fronts, sunshine and wind direction through the atmosphere around Thursday. 

But at the very least, expect to give your air conditioner a bit of a workout toward the middle and end of next week. 

 

Weird Bright Light To Appear Over Vermont Today (We Hope)

The way it used to be.  A deep blue sky, with a few
puffy clouds as decorations, in Georgia, Vermont on
July 28, 2021.  This used to happen quite frequently
in Vermont but lately we've seen none of this.
Thankfully, the sun will make a grand appearance,
at least for a little while, this week

We awoke in Vermont to another gloomy morning this Sunday, with overcast and patches of fog.

At least it stopped raining in most places. At least for now. 

Given the conditions over the past week or more you might be alarmed at what you will see today. I'm here to assure you there's nothing to be afraid of. 

Later this morning or this afternoon, many of us will see a blinding light in the sky.  Don't worry, as long as you don't look directly at it, you won't get hurt. 

The rare phenomenon you are about to see is called the sun.  It's very common in most other parts of the world, and we used to see it frequently here in Vermont.  You just might not remember since it's been since May 16 since many of us have seen even glimpses of it. 

You'll notice this bright light - the sun - has a warming effect. Instead of being in the 40s to near 50 all day, this sun will bring temperatures into the 50s to near 60.  That's still much cooler than normal for this time of year, but it's a little better than it's been.

The ever-present chance of showers in Vermont will remain.  Not everyone will get them. The best chances of showers are in northern and western Vermont this afternoon and early evening.

MONDAY AND BEYOND

That bright light in the sky sun will assert itself even more on Memorial Day.  Much of the day will be at least partly sunny.  Temperatures will rise further into the 60s, which is only slightly cooler than average for this time of year. 

There is a low, but not zero chance of a brief shower.  You can't escape 'em. Most places won't see them though. 

Tuesday and Wednesday look great! Temperatures should get well into the 70s both days, which is near or very slightly warmer than normal for a change. Both days should feature quite a bit of sun. At this point the chance of showers both days is nearly non-existent. 

SATURATED

We should thank our lucky stars that no big, long-lasting downpours are in the offing for the next few days. The ground is so soaked right now that it would only take roughly two inches of rain in six hours to set off flash flooding. 

That amount of rain in that time period happens fairly frequently during bouts of summer thunderstorms.

Relatively dry weather until at least Thursday means that - hopefully - by the end of the week, the ground will have dried sufficiently so it would take a little more rain than that to set off an flooding.

The forecast is uncertain for the end of the week but it looks unsettled. I don't know yet of the rain will start Thursday night, or postpone until Friday or even Friday night. The computer models are disagreeing.

At least for now, those computer models are mostly agreeing that the end of the week rain shouldn't be torrential enough to set of any flooding. 

But as always, stay tuned for updates.

Vermont Rain Continued To Pour Down This Morning, But End Is Near

A foggy, very wet garden in St. Albans, Vermont this
morning after the drenching rains of yesterday and
last night. Drier weather is coming. 

 We promised you a good soaking in Vermont and you got it. 

As of dawn Saturday, it had been raining continuously in the state for about 24 hours.   It was still raining, though the trend was beginning to get more showery.  There were bursts of fairly heavy rain here and there, mixed in with periods of just very light drizzle. 

Rainfall totals are over an inch statewide.  As of 6 a.m., Burlington was one of the "dry" spots with a mere 1.23 inches so far.  

Not many reports have come in from elsewhere yet. That'll happen later this morning. But we already have a report of 2.1 inches out of Elmore. I've added up totals at reporting stations and came up with 1.7 inches in both Bennington and Rutland as of 6 a.m.; about 1.5 inches in Montpelier and around two inches Springfield.

We do have one flood warning to report, and that's from the usual suspect, the Otter Creek in Rutland County.  Flood stage along the Otter Creek in Center Rutland is eight feet. The river is expected to crest at 8.6 feet later this morning. 

Low lying roads along Otter Creek from about Clarendon north into Addison County might go under water, so keep an eye out for that.

The Mettawee River at Granville, New York, just over the border from southwest Vermont is in minor flood stage too. Since part of the Mettawee runs through extreme western Vermont, around Pawlet, there's probably some high water there, too. 

Raindrops gather on a magnolia bloom in St. Albans
Vermont this morning after a drenching rain. 

Other streams and rivers in Vermont might come close to flood stage. Even rivers in northern Vermont are running high, even though not nearly as much rain fell early in the month as in southern parts of the state.

The Winooski River at Essex Junction will probably peak just a little under minor flood stage.  Just be wary that rivers will run high and swiftly for a few days, so if you go out for some early season kayaking or whatever, currents could be dangerous.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington will keep the flood watch going in southern Vermont through this evening. Even though the rain will be tapering off today, runoff could keep rivers high through the day. 

WHAT'S NEXT

The thick clouds and rain kept temperatures in the 40s for many of us Friday. So if you thought the day was remarkably chilly for May, you were right. 

Since the clouds might thin a bit later today, it'll get a little warmer, but not much. 

Sunday will be quite a different day than it's been, except for one thing. It'll still be on the cool side. The sky will be blue, the sun will shine brightly on our newly green landscape. But a stiff north wind will keep temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. 

That coolness might make you worry about frost Sunday night. I think some places well away from Lake Champlain could see some frostiness by Monday morning. But the Champlain Valley looks safe.  

We're still forecasting basically a week of summer coming up next week.  We aren't exactly going to see a heat wave. But many with highs in the 75 to 82 degree range and lows in the 50s to low 60s, it'll basically be a nice week in July. Except in May. 

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look like they will be rain-free.  If that happens, it'll be the first time since mid-March we've gone a full three consecutive days without a drop of rain. At least as measured in Burlington. 

That doesn't mean the entire week will run without the risk of some showers.  As we get into the second half of next week, we'll have a rising chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

It's too soon to say how much, but I don't expect a drenching like the one we just had yesterday and last night. 

Stupidity, False Religion Reigns Supreme In Weird MAGA World

U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Illinois, has some, um,
thoughts on how climate change and God relate. 

Today's rogues gallery takes us to the esteemed U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Illinois, who has some thoughts on climate change.  

Don't we all. 

In a now-viral video, Miller has this to say about climate change: 

"I've even very outspoken about this, it's a sham. The whole climate change is a sham..... First of all, God controls the climate, because he controls the sun, and the sun controls the weather, primarily."

Yeah, the sun is there, so climate change can't exist, apparently. Especially since God put the sun there?  

Physics and climatology and meteorology and all those sciences clearly confuse Miller . You can't expect everybody to be an Einstein, but really, Mary Miller, you can do better. 

Of course there was reaction to Miller, very little of it flattering. Reports MSN:

"Miller's comments about God controlling the weather are receiving a lot of pushback on X. As one replied: 'Tell God to stop warming the Earth ate about 1,000X the natural rate' Another chimes in with criticism of MAGA lawmakers at large: 'This is why they don't want federal government education and private school vouchers.'" 

Several people wondered about Miller's grasp on what God's purpose really is.  Did he not give us brains to pinpoint problems and figure out how to solve them, or should we not bother even trying to do anything since God takes care of it all anyway?

If you believe that, as Miller apparently does, that's just plain laziness. "I'm not going to figure things out on my own, I'll just let God take care of it." In other words, Miller is opting out and making any issues she encounters somebody else's problems.

Or does she think I'm just wasting my own time when I problem enters my life and I use my brain to figure out how to solve it.  And if that's the case, why the hell did he give us humans (well, most of us, anyway) functioning brains?

And what about other supposed "acts of God"?  As one commenter on X asked, "And what is God's great purpose for sending a tornado to a small town in Kentucky or Wisconsin which then levels a church or a school?"

It's God's will to kill students and churchgoers by unleashing tornadoes on them? And don't tell me God is only protecting MAGA "believers."  Red states get plenty of horrible, undeserved weather and climate disasters, too.  

 If you can stand it, here's the video. Click on this link to view, or if you see it in the image below, click on that.  

Weird Vermont Temperature Contrasts A Hallmark Of Early Vermont Spring

Traffic camera image from Route 7 in Bennington Monday
shows no snow on the ground, part of the reason why
temperatures were able to rise to 56 degrees there. 

 Whether or not you had a true springlike day in Vermont Monday really depending on where you were. 

Down in places like Bennington and Brattleboro and Springfield, temperatures under sunny skies reached the mid-50s so spring was definitely in the air. 

Up by the Canadian border, not so much. Highs barely struggle into the mid 30s in some towns, and the few inches of snow that fell Sunday night didn't entirely melt. 

In between the two extremes, the north and the south, Vermont had a pleasantly enough mild March day, but it wasn't hard core spring. 

These kinds of weird temperature extremes in the Green Mountain State happen frequently in the late winter and early spring. You're going to see a little more of that today, too.

MONDAY WEIRDNESS

Part of the reason there were such temperature contrasts in Vermont came up in a post I filed last week.  . This time of year, frigid air - lingering winter - often stays firmly in place over the vast frozen forests and lakes of central and northern Quebec. 

If winds are light northerly, a thin layer of that cold air can bleed southward into far northern Vermont, so places like Highgate and Alburgh and St. Albans and Newport can occasionally get that frigid Quebecois feeling in early spring. 

That's what happened Monday. Newport only managed a high of 36 degrees Monday. 

Meanwhile, daytime temperatures, especially on sunny March afternoons, depend greatly on what's on the ground. 

Still a good amount of snow on the ground around
my house in St. Albans, Vermont Monday, part of the
reason why high temperatures never got out of
the low 40s during the afternoon.

Bare ground absorbs the sun's heat, and thus warms the air in the lowest couple thousand feet of the atmosphere. Those places would be noticeably balmier than places that are snow-covered.

There's pretty much no snow left on the ground around Bennington. So, the sun was able to heat things up nicely, which is a big part of the reason why high temperatures there on Monday was 56 degrees.  . 

Southeastern Vermont, around Brattleboro and Springfield, does still have some snow on the ground, but that snow is thin with plenty of bare spots  A northwest wind Monday also helped the air warm up. 

When the air flows down the slopes of mountains, in this case the southern Green Mountains, it compresses. Compressing air tends to warm up. Which meant the valleys of southeast Vermont also enjoyed some mid-50s  in the afternoon

Central Vermont was in a sort of unaffected middle. There's still plenty of snow on the ground in most of the area between Route 4 and Route 2. So the sun's heat reflected off the white snow cover. Which means it couldn't get quite as warm as it would have with bare ground. Also, some of the sun's energy went into trying to melt some of the snow rather than heat the atmosphere. 

However, that cold air from Quebec wasn't able to bleed southward all that much, so none of that Canadian chill could make it as far south as Route 2.  

The end result was a happy medium with highs well into the 40s. Montpelier had a high temperature of 46 degrees Monday. It probably resulted in a decent sap run in the sugar bushes, so we can't complain about that. 

TODAY

Strong south to southwest winds will briefly bring temperatures well up into the 50s to near 60 statewide.

An exception to the warmth will be right along the shores of Lake Champlain. Those southwest winds will pick up the chill from the icy waters of the lake and blow it ashore Places like Burlington's Waterfront Park will be stuck in the 40s at best for most of the day. Meanwhile, communities a few miles inland from Lake Champlain will be flirting with 60 degrees this afternoon.  

These lake breezes will often keep the immediate shore of Lake Champlain cooler than other areas well into early summer at least. 

Large scale storm systems are still strong this time of year too, so those bring sharp changes in temperature. 

A cold front will turn our balmy Tuesday of near 60 degree weather to a subfreezing shiver fest for Wednesday afternoon. Then, we're still expecting that massive storm in the Midwest to pump us right back up into the 60s again this weekend.

Those are the typical wild temperature gyrations we expect out of a March and April in Vermont.   As always, expect a wild ride and some surprises as we move through the first part of spring. 

Sunshine, Low Humidity Worsening Vermont Fire Risk, Warmth Of This Month Now Tempered

Frost on an otherwise very dry garden bed in St. 
Albans, Vermont Thursday morning. Lots of sunshine
this month is exacerbating fire risk in the state.

The dry times continue.  

Really dry today and much of the weekend, it turns out. 

Along with the increasingly dangerous lack of rain, November so far has been remarkably sunny here in Vermont.  This is normally just about the cloudiest time of year, and we usually endure day after day of overcast skies in November.

Not this year. Most if not all days this month featured at least a little sun. Some days have been mostly sunny. Wednesday was crystal clear in Vermont and the rest of New England and today should be mostly that way.  '

Usually we regard November sunshine as an unexpected gift. This year, it's a bit of a curse. 

There's so much blue sky right now because there's a remarkably dry air mass over us right now. A few high clouds will probably enter the picture today, but that high level moisture won't do anything to help us out down there. 

It's about the driest it can be at this time of year. The dry and getting drier ground isn't helping. There's not much evaporation from the ground into the air, and that's denying even more moisture from entering.

So the drought continues.  Later this morning, the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out, and I'm almost sure it will show worsening conditions in Vermont and the rest of New England. I'll try to post an update on that later today. 

Today's ultra dry air is bad, of course, because that just makes the fire danger that much worse. Those brush fires spread and thrive much more readily if the air is super dry, rather than on the humid side. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates today's fire danger across the state as "high," except "very high" in the valleys of southern Vermont. I've never seen a November in which there's been such a consistent fire danger in the state. In many years, snow cover this time of year precludes any wildfires.

At least it won't be that windy today, with maybe a 5 to 10 mph wind, so it will be hard for fires to spread rapidly. 

The fire danger is even worse in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States, where they've had even less rain than Vermont over the past month and a half.

Breezes should pick up Friday and Saturday, and the air will remain dry, dry, dry.  It won't be super windy, but those breezes with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph will help winds spread fires faster.  Tomorrow will bring a worse fire risk than today.

The outlook for rain or snow is pretty grim.  Nothing is in the forecast through Sunday. Forecasts call for a weak system Monday which might give us a few sprinkles, if that. 

Another system is due maybe Thursday or Friday, but that one looks awfully wimpy, too - at least in terms of precipitation. 

WARMISH BUT NOT LONGER SUPER WARM

Long range forecasts also hint at a likely continuation of warmer than normal temperatures on most days in Vermont over the next two weeks. 

But the days of that summer-like warmth we had earlier in the month appear over for good. At least until next spring. 

Instead, the outlook is for sort of mild weather for this time of year. That means we'll have many days over the next week or more that get well into the 40s or low 50s, and a fair number of nights might not get below freezing.

It seemed cold Wednesday and this morning, but it wasn't anything unusual for mid-November. The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday was 40 degrees. This time of year, we can easily get sub-freezing daily high temperatures. 

It was in the teens to low 20s this morning. Again, vaguely chilly for mid-November but no great shakes. It's been know to get into the single digits this time of year in the Champlain Valley and even a little below zero in the coldest hollows. 

I'm also seeing some uncertain hints of winter weather - meaning subfreezing temperatures a possibly a little snow, arrive in the Green Mountain State  for the last week of November. 

Just A Couple Small Hiccups In Very Long Vermont Dry, Sunny Spell

A blue sky morning today in St. Albans, Vermont. Get
used to it, as it will last much of the month. Although
every once in awhile a few clouds or wildfire smoke
and haze could intrude. 

Vermont's long stretch of warm, fair weather is just beginning now, and all the forecasts indicate this will stick around for a long time.  

September so far in the Green Mountain State has turned out to be a little on the cool side. 

Through yesterday, the month was running about three degrees cooler than the "new normal" in Burlington. That "new normal" is warmer than decades ago, so by historical standards, the first week of the month was pretty average.

That will change. 

Starting this afternoon, temperatures will start to run warmer than average for this time of year. Those temperatures will stay above normal for probably at least the next ten days, probably more. Quite possibly through the end of the month, in fact.

Despite the cool start, September, 2024 in Vermont will go down as yet another warm one. 

If you like warm, dry weather, this will be your month. But as always, there's a few hiccups thrown in. 

Hints of Humidity

 The humidity has been incredibly comfortable the past couple days. In fact, dew points - a rough measure of how humid it feels out there - hit the rock bottom 30s on Tuesday. 

It usually starts to feel a bit sticky when the dew point reaches 60 or so. It does seem like we will have more of a humid feel to the air starting tomorrow and lasting who knows how long. An ultra-weak system from Canada might temporarily drop the humidity to comfortable levels over the weekend, but those hints of mugginess should return next week.

This won't be super oppressive. Those dew points should rise into the low to mid 60s, enough to make it feel like summer. The humidity will also keep most nights somewhat on the warm. I guess it's a little soon to take down the window air conditioner. 

Fog and Sunshine Interruptions

Despite the remarkable strength and staying power of high pressure parking itself nearly overhead for days on end, tiny little disturbance should make inroads from time to time.  You might see somewhat cloudy periods here and there. One such little thing will come through tonight and part of tomorrow, which will interrupt the sun at times. Perhaps an isolated spot could even see a couple raindrops. But that's it. 

Much more importantly, this type of calm, mostly clear high pressure is a recipe for dense morning fog, especially this time of year. 

As the nighttime air cools, warm ground and water helps moisture condense into fog, especially in the valleys. Early morning commuters will need to be careful most mornings. Probably for the rest of the month at least. 

Wildfire Smoke

Record heat in the West as greatly intensified wildfires across California, Nevada and other states. Some of that smoke aloft will drift our way, so skies could become hazy at times once again. The amount of smoke in the air will wax and wane over the coming week or two. However, most of it will be aloft, and not so much near the surface. So, knock on wood, air quality will remain OK down here where we breathe. 

Tropical Storm Shield

This big, fat, stuck high pressure over New England and southeast Canada will deflect any tropical storms,  hurricanes or former tropical storms away from us during the next couple weeks. Hurricane Francine, set to slam into the Louisiana coast this morning, will at first head northeastward once it comes inland.

Often, that would eventually mean a good rainstorm for us. In this case, though, the remnants of Francine will smack into the high pressure and get trapped in or near Arkansas and die. No problem for us. 

There are some signs some sort of subtropical storm or tropical storm might form off the Southeast coast next week.  Some forecasts have it heading inland into the Carolinas.  Again, though, early indications are the high pressure will hold firm, keeping that potential system away from us. 

So bottom line, enjoy!