Fire Weather Alerts In Vermont Today Amid Dry Air, Gusty Winds. When Will The Rain Arrive?

After a long day of enjoying Monday's 
warm sunshine, a tired Henry the Weather
Dog settles down in the evening to watch
TV as evening sun bathes the 
living room in warm light. 

 We hope  you got to enjoy yesterday, Vermont's nicest day of the year so far. Temperatures were in the 70s, the sky was blue, there was a nice breeze making the daffodils dance. It was perfect. Except for the black flies, but you can't have everything. 

Last night turned interesting, at least for weather geeks like me, South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures up, while in other areas especially east of the Green Mountains, light winds created another chilly night. 

It was a summer-like 58 degrees in Burlington at 6 a.m. But at the same time, it was just 34 degrees in Morrisville and 37 in Springfield.

The dry air and those south winds are conspiring to create probably Vermont's highest fire danger of the year so far. 

The whole region has a big fire risk today, but the worst of it is in the Champlain Valley and northern New York. 

A storm that caused severe weather over the Midwest yesterday is pushing east. That storm is rapidly weakening, but combined with the high to our east, it'll funnel stronger wind gusts up the Champlain Valley and into northern New York today. The humidity will stay rock bottom as it has for the past few days. 

With everything dried out and those winds gusting as high as 30 mph, fires could easily get going and then spread fast. And they'll be really hard to control once they do get going.    

Even though winds will be lighter in eastern Vermont, they'll still be enough to propel any fires that start there, too. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says today's fire danger is very high in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley. That's an unusually dire declaration from state fire wardens. Elsewhere in Vermont, the forestry department gives today a high fire danger rating.

As of this writing, there was a fire weather watch in western Vermont and northern New York due to the fire danger. That watch will probably be upgraded to a relatively rare for Vermont red flag warning. Elsewhere in Vermont, a special weather statement highlights the fire danger.

This is not the day to be careless with cigarettes or burn that nasty weedy patch in back of your house. Do that and you can lose your house. Or your neighbors' house. 

That storm coming in will start to spread clouds our way this afternoon, but we won't have any rain to reduce the fire threat. Any showers coning from the Great Lakes area will fall apart long before they reach Vermont.

Otherwise, today will be great. Highs will reach the low 70s again. And the winds might help keep the black flies at bay a little. 

All this will leave us with a quiet, mild night tonight. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll still be dry and relatively warm, so the fire threat will remain. It won't be as windy and the humidity will be slightly higher than it is today. It'll get into the 60s to around 70, so again, fairly warm for this time of year. Clouds will tend to increase again later in the day, in anticipation of a huge change in our weather pattern

RAIN ARRIVES

The next weather disturbance in the pipeline will head northeastward up the western side to the Appalachians and will start to arrive here late Wednesday night. 

That means much colder air and rain for most of Thursday. The steadiest and heaviest rain will probably come Thursday morning but I don't see any real dry periods at all.  High temperatures will only reach the 50s at best. 

Rainfall predictions are always tricky. They do change a lot leading up to a storm like this. But for now, the forecast calls for a respectable three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. That's more than enough to dampen the fire risk. 

And the dreaded "S" word enters the picture, too. It should cool off enough Thursday night for rain showers to mix with or change to snow at elevations above 1,500 feet.  There might be an inch or two of new snow at the summits. This isn't super weird for late April but still vaguely depressing.

NEW COLDER PATTERN

Nothing's really changed in the extended forecast we've been talking about for a few days now. We have an extended period of mostly cooler than normal weather.  We had several days of sunny, dry weather, now we'll have at least double the amount of chilly, unsettled weather. Like I said yesterday, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished. 

This will last at least until mid-May. It won't rain every day, and we should have a couple reasonably warm days thrown in here and there. 

Most days will have a chance of showers. The coldest days will be Friday and Saturday, as some of us will probably not break 50 degrees for highs.

On the bright side, chilly ain't what it used to be, as normal temperatures have been rising fast and will continue to do so into May.  Look at it this way.  A day that was ten degrees cooler than normal on April 10 would have had a high of 42 degrees. A day that's ten degrees on the cool side on May 10 would have a high of 57. 

So chilly weather is definitely getting easier. 

And for what they're worth, very long range forecasts call for a potentially hot and unusually humid summer around here. If that comes true, you'll be pining for those damp, cool days we'll have in May this year. 

April Wildfires Rage In U.S. There's Even A FIre Threat Here In Vermont

Screen grab of a report from WPTZ of a brush fire that
got out of control in Shelburne Wednesday. Much
of the state has a high fire danger today. Elsewhere
in the U.S. much, much worse wildfires have been raging

It's been a terrible wildfire year already in the U.S. and it continued to get worse on Wednesday. 

Fires raged in Georgia, Florida and other states. It's a continuation of a fiery spring in the United States. 

So far this year, through April 17, the nation has seen 20,915 wildfires, the most in recent history and far above the average of 13,597 through that date, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. 

As of April 17, 1,748,490 acres have burned, far above the average of  875,957 through mid-April.  With drought raging in much of the nation, the fires will only get worse as we head into the summer. 

The last few days have made things even worse.

In drought-stricken southern Georgia, at least 50 homes were destroyed by wildfires.  Hundreds of people have been evacuated. Much of Georgia is under mandatory burn bans for the first time in the state's history. The fires are mostly in southern Georgia and northern Florida, where an intense drought is worsening. 

In northern Floria, firefighters battled more than 130 wildfires that burned 39 square miles, NBC News reported. 

Further north, a smoky haze engulfed Atlanta.

In Colorado, a fast moving fire southeast of Colorado Springs prompted evacuation. 

Today, fire alerts run from New Mexico and northwest Texas all the way to eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

VERMONT FIRES

Here in Vermont, things are not nearly as dire as they are in Florida, Georgia, Colorado and other places beset with big wildfires.

But April and early May represent peak wildfires season here in the Green Mountain State. Mostly because said Green Mountain State is not that green yet. Last year's dead brush and leaves, exposed to the sun through leafless trees, dry out in a flash. Even a day or two after rain or snow. 

We've already a few dry episodes with fires this spring. This year through yesterday, 28 Vermont fires have burned 143.6 acres, according to data from the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

 Just yesterday in Shelburne, WPTZ reports that somebody called the town's fire department for a burn permit after already setting the field alight. The fire department turned down the request. 

Meanwhile the fire got out of control as winds gusted to as high as 25 to 30 mph. Firefighters from three departments got the fire contained after it burned about a half acre. No word from the report as to whether the property owner was cited. 

Officials are warning of potential fires today, especially in lower valleys. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement warning of fire danger in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Very dry air and gusty winds could really spread fires today. Now is not the time to burn your brush pile, or flick a cigarette out your truck window. 

Dry weather will continue through the weekend, which keeps the fire danger going. But winds starting tomorrow will be lighter than the 25 to 30 mph gusts we'll see today. 

GREAT WEATHER!

A daffodil enjoying some early morning sunshine
today in St. Albans, Vermont. We have great
spring weather coming for the next few days
but there is a high fire danger, especially today.

Aside from the fire danger, we have just launched into a spell of great spring weather. Skies should have at least a fair amount of sun daily through Sunday or Monday. April showers bring May flowers, but so does April sunshine. 

Cool weather, especially today and tomorrow will be invigorating for those of you who want to go out and get yard work done. 

Highs today and tomorrow should mostly be in the low and mid 50s

We will have freezes tonight and tomorrow night as readings  fall to between 25 and 30 degrees both nights. This won't be cold enough to endanger spring plants like the sharper, colder spell we had Monday and Tuesday morning. 

At least around my area in northwest Vermont, most of my spring plants survived Tuesday morning's frigid temperatures. They'll do fine this time, too. 

But if you are hardening off more tender plants on your deck or whatever, bring them in tonight, tomorrow night and maybe the night after that, too. 

The weekend will turn a little warmer, with highs near 60, which is about normal for this time of year. It looks like skies will be partly to mostly sunny, so we have a fantastic weekend coming up, fingers crossed. 

The Vermont Maple Festival is this weekend in St. Albans, so it'll be a perfect weekend for that, too! 

Huge Western Winds Continue; Big Colorado Fire Threat Today

Rangeland fires in Colorado Wednesday amid high
winds. Today, there's a particularly dangerous
fire risk along parts of Colorado's Front Range
as winds could reach 100 mph. 

 More rounds of high winds are hitting the West today after some incredible gusts roared through an enormous part of the western United States. 

In most places, today's gush of wind in the western United States isn't quite as bad as Wednesday's mess. But it will cause added damage in a wide area that has already suffered huge amounts of tree loss, power outages and structural damage.

The scariest place today will be along and just east of the Front Range in Colorado, where an incredible dangerous potential fire situation is unfolding. More on that in a bit. 

Some of the top wind gusts in mountainous areas included 144 mph at Mount Coffin, Wyoming, 142 mph at Goldwater Ridge Washington; 127 mph at Whitewood, South Dakota and 123 mph in Red Canyon.

Down where people live, the gusts were still incredible. Reports include 102 mph in Golden, Colorado, 101 mph in Rapid City, South Dakota, 99 mph in Missoula, Montana and 85 mph in Casper, Wyoming. 

Miraculously, I'm only aware of one death so far. It was a 55 year old man in Idaho who died when a tree crashed through the roof of his house and landed on the bed where he was sleeping. 

COLORADO DANGER

In Colorado, about 25,000 households were still without power Thursday afternoon after Wednesday's storm. That one brought local wind gusts of up to 100 mph. 

On Wednesday, areas around Boulder, Colorado Springs and places like that were worried about wind-driven wildfires. Thankfully, no heavily populated areas had wildfires. But three of them broke out in rural Yuma County. 

The largest of them raced through 12,000 acres and destroyed four structures, all either sheds or abandoned houses. The fire was 90 percent contained as of Thursday afternoon, Colorado Public Radio reported.

Now, a new storm looms today with a new round of winds of up to 100 mph in the immediate foothills of the Front Range again.  The hurricane force gusts are not expected to cover as large an area as Wednesday's storm. 

But, it's even drier than it was Wednesday, and the winds will be widespread. A large area covering an area from Nebraska down through the western half of Texas is at risk for large, wind driven wildfires today. 

A smaller area right along the Front Range from about Boulder and Fort Collins Colorado up through Cheyenne, Wyoming is really scaring people today. 

The strongest winds and lowest humidity in those cities will hit this afternoon through early this evening. A rare "particularly dangerous situation" red flag warning is in effect for areas immediately adjacent to the foothills in and near Boulder, west of Fort Collins and near Cheyenne. 

It's rare to see that kind of wording in a fire risk advisory. It means any fire that can get going could race erratically through trees, rangeland and neighborhoods. You'd expect that if winds gust to as high as 100 mph, as predicted. There's a risk of another firestorm like the one in December 2021 that destroyed around 1,000 homes around Boulder. 

A grass fire in Cheyenne Wednesday forced the evacuation of a neighborhood. The fire was contained, and people are back home, but today's weather forecast is surely freaking people out around there. 

WIND ELSEWHERE

People are still cleaning up from the gales from Washington to South Dakota.

Rapid City, 101 mph gusts were reported, not far from downtown. At the official weather station at the regional airport, the wind gusted to 94 mph, the highest wind gust on record, beating out an 89 mph gusts during a July, 2002 severe thunderstorm. 

A wildfire broke amid strong winds in Rapid City, South Dakota. It burned along Skyline Drive, a posh section of the city. It looks like firefighters contained the fire before it could burn any houses. 

However, around Rapid City, a radio tower collapsed in the winds, buildings lost their roofs and a lot of trees toppled. 

Throughout the huge state of Montana, crews were clearing fallen trees. Big Sky Country often gets big wind, but it's usually not as widespread for as persistent as this. At one point Wednesday, the entire state was under a high wind warning. 

Today, it's only the western half of Montana under a high wind warning, but winds could still reach 80 mph in some mountainous terrain. 

As new storms come off the Pacific, more high wind warnings are in effect for parts of Oregon.  The weather pattern will continue to feature a fast, west to east blast across the U.S. so more windy weather will keep cropping up here and there coast to coast through the Christmas holiday.  

Sunday In Vermont: Dry, Gusty Fire Risk: Monday In Vermont: A Quick Soaking

The latest National Weather Service forecast rainfall
map for now through early Tuesday. A nice inch or so
over central and southern Vermont, with three quarters
of an inch north, with less in the Northeast Kingdom
No drought buster, but a bit of a help. 
We'll take it!!

 Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be polar opposites of each other, at least in terms of the weather.

Today, we'll need to worry about drought, gusty winds, dry air and wildfires. On Monday, it will be downpours and windy again. 

TODAY

Out ahead of our badly needed rain, the wind is really picking up out there, especially in the Champlain Valley and high elevations. 

It'll be windy enough, and dry enough for the National Weather Service to trigger a somewhat rare red flag warning for central and northern Vermont. 

That means  there's a sky high danger of brush and wildfires. If  a small fire gets going, the wind will make it hard or nearly impossible to control. 

The most dangerous time for fires today are between 1 and 8 p.m. when winds will be strongest and the relative humidity will be lowest. 

The red flag warning might be extended to southern Vermont later this morning. Even if that alert is not extended south today, the fire danger will be way up there. 

Today's is probably the best day this year to be super careful with outdoor fire sources, be they barbecues, campfires, sparks, cigarettes, you name it. We'll remind you again all of Vermont has an outdoor burn ban until further notice. 

Other than the fire risk, enjoy the dry weather and the warmth. Temperatures should get up at least into the low 70s in many areas of the state, especially south and the Champlain Valley. It's not close to record breaking, but still plenty toasty for the third week in October. 

MONDAY RAIN

The bulk of the rain will come at us in a southwest to northeast direction. The band of rain might, if we're lucky, briefly slow down its forward progress right over Vermont, which would be great if it happens. 

In general, we're expecting about three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take. Parts of southern Vermont might see close to 1.5 inches, and some area of the Northeast Kingdom might only see a half inch. 

Overall, the rainfall totals aren't  huge, but definitely not bad, either. Believe it or not, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of flash floods over us Monday, because the rain will be briefly heavy. 

That said, I strongly doubt there will be any problems, other than some deep puddles on the roads.  You might also hear a rumble of thunder or two, because this will be a pretty dynamic system. 

Monday does look like a washout, but the period of really heavy rain should be pretty short in any given area of the state. As it stands now, the best chances of heavy rain are from about dawn to early afternoon. The rain could turn lighter and more showery during the afternoon, especially west and south. 

Gusty winds will continue to buffet us,, especially in the morning and along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains from a little after midnight overnight to a little before noon tomorrow. In towns like Bristol, Underhill, Cambridge and Enosburg, winds could gust to 50 mph or a little more, which could send a couple trees or power lines crashing to the ground here and there.

The rest of the week continues to look unsettled, with shower chances every day. Again, no drought buster, but a help! 

 

We Can Finally Stop Talking About Nor'easter, Vermont Rainfall Amounts Disappointing

One last satellite pic of our nor'easter from yesterdays.
That sort of circle feature just southeast of New
Jersey marked the center of the storm. 

The nor'easter we've been talking about for days is finally pulling away from the East Coast, so it's on to other weather issues. 

Before we go, we do of course have updates on what happened with that damn thing and the mess it left behind. 

An elderly woman died in New York City when high winds blew a solar panel off a building and it struck her. 

A small plane crashed onto a highway in Dartmouth, Massachusetts, killing the two occupants. It's still unclear whether the storm had anything to do with the incident, but it was windy and rainy at the time the plane crashed. 

In Sea Bright, New Jersey, about two dozen people had to be rescued when water surged onto Ocean Avenue during Monday's high tide and stranded drivers, Fox Weather reports. 

Other people had to be pulled out of storm surges in the Carolinas. A large tree crushed several cars in Queens, New York. 

It appears no additional homes fell into the waves at North Carolina's Outer Banks, but the storm surges and waves breached dunes and made already teetering homes appear even more ready to collapse into the water. 

As expected, shoreline flooding hit from the Virginia tidewater all the way to southern New England. 

VERMONT

Looking north from beneath the gloomy skies Monday
over St. Albans, Vermont you could see blue sky
in the far distance over Quebec. 

The nor'easter disappointed people in southern Vermont as it dumped less rain than originally hoped. 

Some areas south of Route 4 were expecting a half inch to an inch of drought-denting rains. Instead, most everyone had less than a quarter inch. 

Winds were gusty enough in a few spots in southern Vermont to set off some scattered power outages that affected about 600 home and businesses. 

Instead of a nice feed of moisture from the nor'easter, a  single band of showers limped north through Vermont while weakening Monday, which is why we didn't get our needed rain.

 The remnants of that band of rain stalled over far northern Vermont most of the day while slowly falling apart. So we had sprinkles, drizzles and gray clouds all day.  If you were under those clouds and sprinkles near the Canadian border, you could make out some blues skies far to the north in Quebec. 

Rainfall amounts north of Route 2 were around 0,05 inches or less,  in line with forecasts.  

Montpelier managed to get 0.22 inches, mostly from an area of light rain that moved over that area overnight and early this morning. 

A somewhat unexpected patch of showers was moving into northern Vermont around dawn today.  Some areas could see a tenth of an inch of rain by the time it clears out later this morning. I guess we'll take it. Better than nothing, I suppose. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Since it didn't rain much, the northern New England drought goes on, undeterred.  

 This afternoon should get a little nicer, with a few breaks in the clouds and temperatures sneaking up to a near normal high of around 60 degrees. 

A dry cold front will come through tonight, bringing us some chilly north winds Wednesday and Thursday.  

Our pesky nor'easter will be far out to sea both days, while another in a long series of dry honking big high pressure comes in from the west. The squeeze play between the two systems will give us those north winds. 

We might see gusts to 30 mph and the humidity those days will be pretty low. What little rain we got yesterday and this morning will evaporate pretty fast, so once again, we'll have to worry about brush fires again. Especially since those winds would spread anything that manages to start. 

Those chilly north winds will keep high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday to within a few degrees either side of 50. Nights will be at or below freezing for most of us. That shouldn't concern too many of us since our gardens are pretty much kaput anyway. 

Let's face it. The summer that extended into October this year is definitely over. 

It'll start to warm up a little toward Saturday. Our next shot at any decent rain would come Sunday or Monday. Stay tuned over the coming days to find out whether we actually get any rain out of the or whether it'll be another bust.  

Drought, Wildfire Risk Back In Vermont

Fire danger in Vermont is back to high again.
Rain last week tamped the fire danger 
down a little, but it has dried out
again. Breezy weather won't help. 

The dampness from the rain we had last week has dried up in Vermont and we're back to our regularly scheduled drought. 

I noticed I was once again stirring up a lot of dust working in my St. Albans yard yesterday. 

The fire danger in Vermont is back to high again, after dropping to "moderate" for a few days after the rain.  

Today won't help. A dry cold front went through this morning, and all it will do is drop temperatures somewhat and make the winds pick up. Gusts to 25 mph or so could fan flames. 

Luckily, the winds shouldn't get extremely strong, so that helps. The humidity will be quite low, but not as low as it can possibly get.

Which means we're not really in a worst case scenario for wildfires today and tomorrow, the but the risk is definitely heightened. 

Make sure you don't send any sparks flying to start a blaze that could spread pretty quickly. No burn piles or camp fires, either. A statewide burn ban remains in effect.

Already, just this morning, I saw a report of a brush fire near the Ben & Jerry's plant in St. Albans. Early reports are that blaze was quickly contained. 

Yesterday afternoon, a reported vehicle fire in Alburgh was spreading into a field. That fire, too, was quickly controlled. 

Tomorrow will be breezy, too, so we won't see any improvements then. 

There has been an increasing number of brush fires in Vermont this month, but luckily all have been contained pretty quickly. At least so far. 

Through September 19, 65 fires were recorded in Vermont this year. As of yesterday, that number had increased to 73. However, only 57.47 acres have been burned so far this year through yesterday. That's just four or so acres more than the total on September 19.  

After sunny, cool, dry weather for the next few days, it will stay sunny and dry, but turn warm again over the weekend and early next week. Warmer weather accelerates evaporation, so that's not good.  However, if ay new brush or wildfires start, I don't see any strong winds to fan flames until maybe next Monday, October 8. 

It still doesn't look like Vermont will see any showers until around Tuesday, October 9. but early guesses are those showers will probably be on the light side. 

Fire And Ice: Risk Of Wildfires Today, Frosts And Freezes Tonight, Tomorrow Night

Very low water along the Brewster River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont this week. High pressure
today and tomorrow is raising the risk of frost,
continuing the drought and keeping
a high forest fire danger going. 

 As expected, a cold front blew through last night, and even as the sun was breaking through the clouds this morning, temperatures were still falling. 

The cold air lagged, and it was still unexpectedly kind of mild this morning. It was still 70 degrees in Burlington at midnight and near 60 at dawn. 

But, as we go through the day, temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s this afternoon. 

It actually rained in a few spots overnight, too, though the word "rain" is probably a bit strong here.  Sprinkles came down in Burlington. 

Here in St. Albans, we were a particular "wet" spot with a whopping 0.01 inches of rain. 

Those paltry amounts of course make no difference with our deep drought. As the day goes on, skies will clear, winds will stay breezy from the north, and humidity will crash to low levels once again.  

That's a recipe for increased fire danger. Since everything out there is parched, any spark could trigger a wildfire. "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the National Weather Service announced in a special weather statement that's in effect today. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has rated the fire danger as high for the past week or so. For today, they've upgraded the risk to very high. 

FROST/FREEZE

The cool breezes will calm down tonight. Skies will stay clear, and the low humidity will allow temperatures to drop. We're in for the most widespread frosts of the season so far. 

A freeze warning is in effect overnight and early Saturday morning for Essex County, Vermont, in the far corner of the Northeast Kingdom. The freeze warning is also up for the Adirondacks, far northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine. In those places, the temperature will fall to between 25 and 30 degrees, so that will definitively end the growing season in those places.

Here in Vermont, a frost advisory is up for everybody in the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley.  Temperatures will fall to between 30 to 35 degrees in these areas by dawn Saturday.  You'll want to bring in vulnerable plants, or cover them up with sheets and such to protect them.  

Or, if you have a vegetable garden, today would be an excellent day for what I call your Emergency Frost Harvest, in which you can take in anything that is vulnerable. Grab those tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers while you can! 

There's no frost advisory in southern Vermont yet, but I expect quite a few patches of frost down there, too.  

Keep those sheets handy, because you'll need them Saturday night and early Sunday. Saturday will be a bright, cool, crisp, autumnal day. The fire danger will still be around, as humidity levels will be even lower than today. But Saturday's winds will be light, so that will minimize the spread of any wildfires. 

If anything, Saturday night and the hours around dawn Sunday might be even colder than tonight. There might even be some frost in the Champlain Valley well away from the lake.   It depends on whether any late night light breezes kick in or not. 

After Sunday morning, temperatures will turn warmer again, so the frost threat will go away for now. If your plants survive the frost this weekend, they'll last into October. The overall weather pattern will lean warm through then. 

Of course, your plants might not survive the ongoing drought. It's not really going to get any better.  

WEAK RAIN PROSPECTS

The good news is looks like it's finally going to rain next week. We think, anyway. The bad news is the amount of rain will be completely inadequate to help in any meaningful way with the drought.  

But, at least some rain is in the forecast. The predictions are iffy, but early guesses give us a tenth to a third of an inch of precipitation next Tuesday through Thursday. That's far short of what we need, but we'll take anything.  At least a lame rain would minimize the fire danger temporarily. 

We'll have more details on next week's rain chances as we get closer to the potential weather system. 

Probably The Biggest, Worst Fire Risk Of The Year Today In Vermont

If this National Weather Service forecast rainfall
map comes true, that will be great. Two weather
fronts will come through by Saturday night.
Combined, they might produce roughly an
inch of rain in Vermont. But the wetter of
the two fronts is on Saturday and the heavier
rain might or might not pan out. 

Sometimes a nice day can be a bit dangerous, too. 

Today in Vermont we'll deal with bright sun most of the day, rock bottom humidity, and a gusty breeze which will feel great. But those very conditions will give the Green Mountain State probably its highest risk of brush and forest fires of the year. 

Winds have already picked up in the Champlain Valley and that will follow soon in the rest of the state. By afternoon, winds will gust to 25 mph in much of the state and over 35 mph in the Champlain Valley.  

At the same time as the winds peak this afternoon, the relative humidity will dip down to around 30 percent. A dry, arid, windy day. You know what that means, and so does the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Just read their special weather statement for today: "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be careful to contain." 

Even places that got a decent wet down last weekend are at risk.  Last Friday and Saturday, we received 0.55 inches of rain here in St. Albans, By Wednesday, everything underfoot was super dry again, and plants were trying to wilt again.  

Today's not the day for your backyard campfire near or in the woods, carelessly flicking your cigarette out the car window or setting off fireworks. 

SOME RAIN RELIEF

The good news is at least some rain is on the way. And quickly. 

If God forbid any fires start today in the Vermont woods, or in neighboring states or southern Quebec, enough rain will come tonight to start controlling the blazes. 

Clouds should start to fairly abruptly obscure the sun late this afternoon in western Vermont and evening in the east. Rain should start maybe two or four hours after the clouds arrive. 

Tonight's rain comes courtesy of the first of two cold fronts coming at us. This first one will be fairly strong in New York State, giving areas from the Adirondacks west a good half inch or more of rain. 

By the time the front makes it into Vermont, it will be weakening, like so many weather systems have this dry summer. Expect maybe a third of an inch of rain in the Champlain Valley and northern Green Mountains and a quarter inch or less (probably less most places) elsewhere in Vermont. 

The rain will be lightest in the driest parts of the Green Mountain State, so that's not good. The new weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later today which would have updates on how Vermont is doing with its dry conditions. I hope to post an update sometime between later today and tomorrow morning. 

A SECOND SHOT?

We still have one more shot at another dose of rain Saturday. We hope. 

The rain from the first front should clear out early Friday and we should have another partly sunny, warm day, with highs well into the 70s to around 80.

Then the next front comes along. There is still hope this second front will be wetter than the first, but there's still discrepancies in various models. Which means it's still iffy. 

But if this morning's forecast holds, this second front could dump a half inch to as much as an inch of rain on much of the Green Mountain State. If that happens, it would be fantastic. It's too bad the rain would hit on Saturday, but we'll have to take it when we get it.

The second front has more moisture along it and a bigger temperature gradient than the first, which is why we hope the rain is heavier with Saturday front. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explains the stronger front and the fact it's passing through during the day makes forecasting the high temperatures Saturday much more tricky than for most days. 

If it comes through early, it would be a cool day. If it's later than expected, it'll be warm. For now, they're going for highs barely near 70 northwest to the low 80s south and east. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF AGAIN

After Saturday, the rain will go away for a good long while again. So,  unfortunately, the hoped-for rain over the next couple of day is not a shift toward wetter weather pattern. It looks like only sprinkles or very light rain showers will come through on a few days through at least the middle of the month. 

The only hope is that long range forecasts are a little less accurate, so we can just hope for a wet surprise later this month. But it's nothing we can count on. 

It will be a cooler weather pattern, too. At least for most of next week. We're heading deeper into September so the chances of warm days are dwindling. It'll stay pleasant enough, with highs in the 60s and low or even mid 70s most of next week. But we'll probably have very few super warm, summer days until, well, next summer.  

Northern New England/Canada Fire Danger Today; Still Hanging On Potential Rain Forecast Sunday/Monday

A hollyhock blossom basks in the sun and awaits 
forecasted rain Saturday morning in St. Albans, Vermont,

It hasn't rained here in northern Vermont since Sunday or since Tuesday down south. Both rainfalls were pathetically light. 

Since then, we've had lots of sun, and rock bottom humidity. Very nice, but not great for our developing drought. 

Today, the wind is picking up. There's definitely a risk of brush fires today. 

The drought in New England is most intense in Maine closest to the coast.

 The National Weather Service office in Caribou, Maine, is warning residents there of "potential for uncontrolled fire spread across the Downeast, Bangor Region and Central Highlands today."

Southeast Canada is on guard for fires, too. Unlike here in New England, places like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have already experienced large, damaging brush and forest fires. 

In New Brunswick, fire activity has decreased in recent days, which is awesome news, but they are on guard up there. In Nova Scotia, winds from offshore Hurricane Erin helped fan a large wildfire near West Dalhousie that has consumed about 32 square kilometers, or about 20 square miles. 

Here in Vermont, the forest fire danger remains high today, as the humidity remains arid, the sun continues to blaze and winds pick up. 

Luckily, it still looks like the fire danger will be tamped down starting tomorrow, though that might well be temporary. The drought will continue, but at least some rains will interrupt its worsening trend.   

RAINY BREAK 

This morning's National Weather Service rainfall
prediction map shows more than a half inch of
rain through Monday in most of Vermont. Rainfall
forecasts like this are subject to change. 

The increasing wind today is the first signs of the welcome rains.  It's also another sign summer is waning.  Summertime cold fronts don't generate much wind, except within strong or severe thunderstorms.  

Once you get into autumn, the parent storms with cold fronts start to get stronger, so the wind increases. 

That wind will peak tonight, with some places gusting as high as 35 mph.  That's obviously not especially dangerous, but you might want to unfurl those umbrellas over your deck tables before you go to bed tonight. 

The wind will not have had a chance to get too strong today, gusting to maybe 25 mph. Those breezes combined with low humidity will actually feel good even though temperatures get well into the 80s. 

Sunday will feel more humid, and there will be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Not everyone will get all that wet Sunday. Some places, especially south and east, might have to wait until Sunday night to start seeing some decent rains as the cold front starts moving into the region. 

Although a few of Sunday's storms might get a little rambunctious, meteorologists don't expect much in the way of severe weather. 

It looks like an interesting little storm will get going near the North Carolina coast and head quickly northeastward off of New England toward southeast Canada Monday. This might be sort of a semi-tropical system.  Up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, this little storm looks like it could drop a lot of badly needed rain, which is great news for them.

Even though this storm won't directly affect Vermont, I'm mentioning it because it could give us a bit of an assist. 

National Weather Service meteorologists think this storm might slow down the cold front over Vermont Monday and boost it with a little extra moisture. That would prolong the rain we're getting and add to the overall totals. 

You can see that in the rain forecast from late Saturday through Monday. Northern New York looks like it will be a little too far west to benefit from that front slowing down on Monday. Some places out there might not even see a quarter inch of rain out of this,   

Vermont would get a little more, with many places seeing a half inch to an inch of rain. At least as something doesn't go wrong with the forecast and we get cheated out of rain again. I'm not going to rejoice until I see water in my rain gauge. 

The rainfall totals is will be highly variable again, because of the expected scattered thunderstorms. Some Vermont towns might miss out and receive less than a half inch of rain, while other places could get bonus storms that would bring rainfall totals to as much as 1.5 inches. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF

If the current schedule holds, most of the rain Monday would come early in the day with perhaps a bit of clearing later. 

Unfortunately, the predicted rain Sunday and Monday seems to be a one-off and not a change in the weather pattern toward something soggier.

It'll be a cool week with air coming down from Canada.  The ginger ale is called Canada Dry for a reason. There's not much atmospheric moisture up there. Weak disturbances in the air flow might touch off some light showers. 

That could be especially true on Thursday, as a lot of the computer models swing a reinforcing cold front through here. Basically just count on sprinklers.  Most of us will seen a tenth of an inch of rain or less next week after Monday. 

The cooler than average air will probably last until next weekend. At that point, it could start to warm up a bit, but persistent high pressure nearby would keep wet weather fronts away for awhile.   

We're not going to easily shake out of our dry weather pattern heading into autumn. It might be time to start hoping for the remnants of old tropical storms to come through in September and early October, followed by a series of nor'easter later in the autumn and into the winter. 

Yes, you saw it here first. I'm actually hoping for bad weather.  

Startling, Weird Desert-Like Heat Wave Instantaneously Dries Out Vermont, Rest Of New England, Canada

Temperature sign in downtown Burlington, 
Vermont on Monday says it all. 

 I don't think I've ever seen a weirder heat wave, and such a rapid drying in Vermont.

Temperatures are near record highs, but we've seen that before. Climate change has us breaking high temperature records all the time, it seems. 

This heat wave is different, though.  Usually, summertime hot spells in New England are humid, oppressive, tropical. This time the air is desert dry.   Monday somehow managed to turn out even a bit drier than dusty Sunday.

The temperature peaked at 96 degrees in Burlington Monday. Not a record high because it fell on the anniversary of the city's hottest reading ever, which was 101 degrees in 1944. Montpelier did reach a record high of 91 degrees. Plattsburgh, New York also had 

Monday's dew point was in the mid-50s, reading to a relative humidity of just 27 percent. That's remarkably arid for an August hot spell.  This extreme heat and dry combo will continue today. More on that further down, but I'm still agog at how fast we went from wet to parched.  

I've seen Vermont get this dry in some past droughts, but not nearly this fast. Within just a few days, leaves on some of the trees along Interstate 89, the ones on thin soil above rock ledges, wilted like lettuce left on a hot stovetop. 

Lawns turned from green to brown seemingly overnight. Even the weeds on parts of my property shriveled up and died. 

I couldn't keep up with the watering on Monday.  I'd notice some perennials wilting in the arid heat, the same ones I'd thoroughly soaked the day before.  I'd water them, then move the sprinkler somewhere else. Those  perennials I'd just watered early in the afternoon were thirsty again by sundown.  

The only plant I have that seemed happy was a cactus in one dry, sandy corner of my gardens. Today will be another 

RECORD HIGHS 

Wilting goldenrods and parched ground in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning amid our
developing flash drought. 

Some places did have record highs Monday.  Montpelier reach a record high of 91 degrees, beating the old record of 90 in 2016. Montpelier's records only go back to 1949, which is why that 1944 heat is missing from Montpelier's data. 

Plattsburgh, New York also had record high of 91 degrees Monday. 

I don't know for sure whether the summit of Mount Mansfield set a record high but it must have, having reached an incredible 86 degrees, pretty remarkable for a Vermont weather station at about 4,300 feet in elevation. 

The summit of Mount Washington was 66 degrees at 3 p.m, - very hot for them. 

The heat and drought if anything  has been crushing in southeast Canada. Bathurst, in northern New Brunswick set their all time August record high on Sunday, only to have that record beaten Monday with a high of 99.5 degrees.  It was 95 degrees in both Montreal and Ottawa. 

In Nova Scotia, record highs included 99 at South Ingonish Harbor and 36.2 at Ingonish Beach. So much for a cool, refreshing vacation in the Canadian Maritimes!

Here in Vermont, more record highs will be broken today, as we'll have almost exactly the same weather as yesterday. The record high in Burlington today is 93 degrees, so we should get past that. A heat advisory is still in effect for the Champlain Valley, but really, it will be hot everywhere in the (slightly less) Green Mountain State today. 

The rapid drying should continue. As you might imagine, the forest fire danger in Vermont is very high. That's also true across northern New York, northern New England, southern Quebec. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remains very high and dangerous. 

HEAT RELIEF, AND A LITTLE RAIN?

Tomorrow will be the day we're waiting for as that cold front is still expected to come through. It will be one more hot day, especially in southern Vermont, which will see the clouds and showers from the front later in the day. It will also be noticeably more humid for just one day. 

It now looks like many of us will get some rain Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is thinking about 75 percent of Vermont will see some rain tomorrow. 

Most of us won't get all that much, and whatever comes out of the sky won't solve our new drought problems. But at least we'll get a break.

Some unlucky towns won't get any rain at all, which is bad news. Some areas will see a nice if brief torrential downpour. In general, the northern Vermont will do a little better than the south.  In the northern half, rainfall for most people (but not everybody) should be in the quarter to half inch range, with a few lucky devils seeing three quarters of an inch or so.

Southern Vermont should get somewhere between practically nothing and a quarter inch. With a few pinpoint spots seeing a little extra. 

All this will help with the dry weather temporarily but will be no cure. As I keep saying, we need several day long, soaking rains, which are not in the cards for now. 

A few of Wednesday's thunderstorms might be on the strong side, but the atmosphere doesn't look like it will support any widespread severe weather.

RETURN TO DRY

Thursday and Friday will give us a break from the heat, but the humidity will be at rock bottom again, so the drying will resume.  It might be briefly warm to hot, but dry Saturday before another cold front arrives Sunday. 

So far, that Sunday cold front does to look that impressive, so don't count on a lot of rain with that. 

The weather pattern is looking like it will shift into a new configuration after this coming weekend. But it's not one that will help with the dry conditions.  It's a change from previous forecasts that indicated it would stay very warm through the end of the month. 

The latest extended forecasts favor mostly cool,  maybe sometimes almost autumn like weather through the end of the month . But with an air flow from the northwest, weather systems might tend to be moisture-starved because the overall air flow would prevent deep moisture from moving up from the south. 

The blast furnace heat will end after today but a drought looks like it might want to continue to develop and deepen.   

Heat, Dry Weather Still Over-Performing In Vermont; At Least Two More Torrid Days Coming

Clear skies over Taylor Park in St. Albans, Vermont
Sunday afternoon.  Yes, it was a nice summer day
but HOT. And oddly dry for a 
New England heat wave, 

The heat over-performed in Vermont once again Sunday. In Burlington, the high got up to 95 degrees, about four degrees warmer than forecast. 

.Dry air allows temperatures to get a little higher than they would if it was more humid. 

And dry it was on Sunday. The sky was nearly cloudless, with just a small amount of lingering wildfire smoke in the atmosphere.

 It's odd to see a cloud-free sky in a heat wave around here, as the humidity that usually accompanies a New England heat wave will often generate towering clouds that turn into a few scattered cooling thunderstorms. 

But the high pressure was so strong, and the air so dry that we had now showers. No clouds. No cooling. Outside of Burlington it was hot everywhere in Vermont, St. Johnsbury got to 92 degrees. It was 93 in Springfield. There was no escaping the heat up in the mountains. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 83 degrees. 

This has been a strangely dry heat wave so far.  Dew points were in the upper 50s during Sunday. That's normally considered comfortable, but actually temperatures were so hot it sort of nullified that "comfort."   A normal heat wave would bring us uncomfortable dew points well into the 60s or low 70s. 

That's why there wasn't any kind of heat advisory on Sunday.  It was a dry heat, as they might say in Arizona.  Not as bad as the humid East, supposedly.  But when that the humid East went dry this weekend, at least in Vermont, it still felt uncomfortably hot for us in the alleged Great White North.   

The relative humidity Sunday afternoon was around 32 percent in Burlington and much of the rest of Vermont. That's awfully low. The hot sun, the hot temperatures and that dry air really accelerated the developing drought in and around the Green Mountain State. 

Needless to say the fire danger in New England and southeast Canada continues to worsen.  Around here, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation today upgraded the fire danger in most of Vermont from "high" to "very high" which is somewhat rare designation.

If this keeps up, we're going to have to start worrying about crops quite soon, too.

HOT, DRY FORECAST

The dry, hot state of affairs will continue for at least two more days.  What appears to be our developing drought will continue on, despite the chances of a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. I'll get to those in a minute.

The humidity - dew point - has crept up a little since yesterday and will stay mostly in the low to mid 60s. 

It'll be interesting to see what that slightly higher but not ridiculous humidity does to actual temperatures. The National Weather Service is going for expected highs of 93 in Burlington both today and tomorrow. 

If those temperatures come to pass, that's marginally cooler than Sunday, but it will feel a bit worse.   It's enough to finally trigger a heat advisory in the Champlain Valley.  We'll barely meet the criteria for a heat advisory, as it will feel like it's in the mid-90s this afternoon.  

The heat advisory is on in part because the longer a hot spell goes on, the more effects it has on the human body.  This has been going on for a few days now, so it's wearing us out. Vermont outside the Champlain Valley doesn't quite qualify for a heat advisory, but just know you need to take it easy in today's weather, no matter where you are.  Tomorrow, too

Probably the best you can do is accidentally shoot yourself with your garden hose while watering your veggies and flowers.   There is no chance of any welcome, cooling showers today or tomorrow. Just lots of blast furnace sun.  

COLD FRONT

The cold front to end the heat is still due Wednesday. I am still unimpressed by the prospects of a lot of rain with this thing. Chances appear good that most of us will see some rain, but it won't be much.

It will temporarily get really, really humid Wednesday, which would make you think we're going to get blasted by torrents of rain. But the atmospheric dynamics don't seem to be there to generate lots of strong storms. 

There's probably a risk of a severe storm or two but that risk is low. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center even has us in a marginal (very low) risk of flash flooding Wednesday, which might seem surprising. 

It's possible but pretty unlikely that one or two spots could get a torrential enough downpour to cause some minor washouts, that sort of thing.

 But even the lucky few that get a good downpour won't benefit much. Any local torrents won't last long, and won't have a chance to soak into the ground. As I mentioned yesterday, we need a slow, steady rain to undo the dustiness and lack of water underfoot, and in our streams, rivers and wells. 

After Wednesday, it's right back to the super low humidity and sunshine. That'll probable last Thursday through Saturday. At least the air temperature Thursday and Friday will be reasonable, with highs near 80s and lows in the 50s amid that dry air. 

There's a chance of another weak front with lame, scattered showers Sunday, but that doesn't look impressive either. That Sunday thing looks like it might be followed by another batch of dry high pressure from central Canada.

Since those two cold fronts will introduce air from central Canada, we might have a couple more big smoke attacks amid the dry air. Those two new air masses, the first one on Thursday the next tentatively schedule to arrive a week from today, are coming from those places in Canada with the huge ongoing wildfires, 

So chances are, the relatively cool bursts of air won't make you breathe easy. Instead, it could well be more smoke and gunk and haze and yuck.  

Heat Wave Has Arrived In Vermont/Northeast. Bad Through Wednesday

The heat is expected to peak Tuesday, which
this map depicts. Those spotty red zones
include in Vermont, mean the it's hot enough to
really start impacting health systems
and industry. Orange means there is
those systems are beginning to truly
see some impacts from the heat. 

The heat wave is here, and it's going to be a long one, by Vermont standards anyway. 

It still looks like this hot spell might over-perform, given the trends already. It got up to 91 degrees Saturday in Burlington, a little warmer than the 88 that was forecast. 

That 90 degrees was the 13th time this year it's been 90 degrees or above.   Only 16 out of the past 125 years have had that many.  

We're going to pile up more 90s. Today through Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday should make it over 90 degrees. 

We won't make it to the single -year record of 26 days with 90 degree temperatures, but we'll definitely be up there in 2025

Today should be a wee bit hotter than Saturday, for most of us, with most warmer valleys topping 90 degrees. 

A decaying patch of clouds this morning ,moving into northwest Vermont might delay today's warming a smidge, possibly making today's highs near or a degree "cooler'" than yesterday in the northern Champlain Valley.  But don't count on it. 

NO HEAT ADVISORY - YET

Given that the heat has already started and is forecast to intensify, you might be surprised that there's no heat advisory or warning in Vermont. That's a change from previous heat waves we've seen this summer. 

The reason is the humidity is lower this time, compared to previous hot spells. High humidity makes it feel hotter outside than the kind of relatively drier air we have now,

 A heat advisory is issued in Vermont if the combination of heat and humidity makes the air feel like it's between 95 and 104 degrees. An excessive heat warning is issued if it will feel hotter than 104 degrees outside.  

A heat advisory might go into effect for at least parts of Vermont tomorrow and Tuesday as actual temperatures should get into the mid-90s in warmer valleys. Since this hot spell is so far turning out to be hotter than forecast, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple places  in the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley hit the upper 90s on Monday and especially Tuesday. 

When the ground is dry, as it is now, sunshine can heat the air more effectively rather than putting all its energy into evaporation. That's why this hot spell might end up hotter than originally forecast. 

Even though there's no heat advisory, at least not yet,  in at least one way, this heat wave could be more dangerous. Even more so than the historic heat wave in June that broke records for the hottest June temperatures on record in Vermont and the rest of New England, 

That June heat wave lasted just two or three days. In this case, it already started to get quite warm Thursday, and now we'll have daily highs in the 90s probably through Wednesday. 

Nights have been a little cooler than they were in June, thanks to the lower humidity, but still kind of warm. And they'll get worse as tonight through Thursday night. 

The effects of heat waves on human health are cumulative. The longer they go on, the worse it gets for vulnerable people.  Especially if you are elderly or have health problems, you need to take it easy, and find air conditioning if you can. 

Outdoor workers should go easy (and their bosses should let them!) and provide plenty of water. Once again, this would be a good day for us to "kidnap" people without air conditioning and who are vulnerable to hot weather and take them to air conditioned places like a movie or shopping mall or museum. 

DRY TIMES

This dry heat wave continues to worsen the fire danger across Vermont, the rest of New England, and northern New York. Along with southern Canada.

It's gotten so bad up in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that the government has banned people from the forests there. That means no fishing, camping, hiking or vehicles. By the way, forests comprise 70 percent New Brunswick so this is a big deal. 

It's not quite that dire here in Vermont, but you'll want to be extremely careful.  No unattended camp fires, please. No fireworks in the woods, no careless flicking away the cigarette out the car window.  If you do have a small backyard fire, like I plan today, have water ready, keep it away from the forest, and put it out completely when done. (I have that check list all worked out).

 Local officials have imposed burn bans in some Vermont towns, so check with your community before setting that bonfire. Better yet, postpone big burns until it rains. 

Good luck with that. The next chance of rain is Wednesday, in the form of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms with that  cold front.  Wednesday will be our only truly very humid, oppressive day of this heat wave as a little moisture pools ahead of the front to fuel the storms.  

Although some of those Wednesday storms might have locally torrential downpours, it's not the kind of rain you need to really tamp down the fire threat.

The brief, heavy rains quickly run off and the ground stays dry an inch or two below the surface. Once the sun comes back out, that top wet layer dries off within a couple days and you're back where you started from. What we need is a few to several day long, soaking rains. Those are not in the forecast. 

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Following Wednesday's cold front, it now looks like we'll have a decent push of cooler air. At least briefly. By "cooler"  I mean, temperatures at the end of the week will only be a little warmer than average with highs in the 75 to 84 degree range.   That's better than mid-90s, I suppose.

Worse, that push of air starting Thursday will be quite dry once again, intensifying our trend toward a flash drought.  The very dry air that'll arrive Thursday appears it might linger for a number of days. 

As I always say, long range forecasts are iffy, but for now, those forecasts seem to indicate only a couple weak, moisture-starved weather fronts until at least the last week of August.  

Weird Vermont Wet Spots Amid Very Dry Week; Heat Wave Looms

National Weather Service radar from around 6:15 a.m. 
today showed slow moving showers and downpours
in southern Vermont. While most of us are bone
dry, a few isolated places are picking up a lot of
rain. More widely scattered storms all day today.

 As you know, I've been harping about how dry it's getting out there, and how the forest fire danger is rising and all that.  

That's all still very true. 

Interspersed with the dryness is some isolated very wet spots. It's the strange winners/losers situation we sometimes see in the summer. 

The few showers and thunderstorms developed Wednesday, just as they did Tuesday. Almost all of them were in central and southern Vermont. 

The storms that got going moved very slowly,  managing to dump quite a bit of rain on just a couple spots. There's not much in the way of specific reports, since most of the showers and storms have avoided major reporting stations. 

But there are isolated spots in New England that are soggy amid an overall dry spell. Lebanon, New Hampshire, just over the border from White River Junction has 0.83 inches of rain in a late Wednesday afternoon thunderstorm.   

Just over the Vermont border in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, as much as 1.75 inches of rain fell Wednesday.

A patch of rain early this morning over far southern Green Mountains east of Bennington and southwest of Springfield this morning has surely dumped at least a half inch if not more in a few towns down there. I say that because those storms were just sitting there, hardly moving.

We'll continue that state of affairs today. 

More thunderstorms will erupt today here and there. With nothing to steer the storms, some might sit over the same spot for quite a while. So, though the risk is very low, there could be one or two pinpoint spots maybe in the central and southern Green Mountains that could have a local minor flash flood. 

 The chances of you seeing a thunderstorm today is pretty low,  probably not much better than 30 percent, if that. They could pop up almost anywhere, based on just local breezes, the remnants of old storms or subtle ripples in the atmosphere. There's really no real weather front or storm to kick off anything. Just August summertime doldrums. 

The more likely spots are in the Adirodacks and Green Mountains, where the slopes create the start of the updrafts needed to get storms going. There could be some storms near the western shore of Lake Champlain, where a breeze off the lake might interact with updrafts along the eastern edge of the Adirondacks. 

I'll emphasize that at least 99 percent of us will have no trouble. And the majority of us will see another day with no rain at all.  So, while it pours like hell in one or two towns, the rest of Vermont and surrounding areas continue to endure our dusty, smoky weather.  

SMOKE/HEAT

Other than the isolated thunderstorms and downpours, the trend now is for slowly decreasing smoke and noticeably increasing heat. 

The smoke is still sitting over us, with no place to go, no real wind to flush it out.

National Weather Service calling for moderate
to major heat wave in the Northeast. This map
is for Monday. Red areas will be the most
uncomfortable relative to local averages. 

 But the air is slowly getting better as the smoke particles continue to slowly fall out of the sky. 

Air quality alerts have expired, but some pollution remains, so it's not clean and refreshing out there. This slow trend toward less smoke will continue, but it'll stay hazy out there into the weekend. 

The real story is the heat coming in. That big high pressure system that's been over Quebec is now moving off the New England coast. It'll work in concert with the famous summertime Bermuda high to pump hot air our way. 

This hot air will last awhile,

The warmup has already started. Wednesday was a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday. This mornings readings were was a couple higher than yesterday's dawn, but still comfortable, 

Each day today through Monday will be a little hotter than the day before. An example, forecast daily highs today through Tuesday go as follows: 83, 85, 88, 91, 94, 92.  Nights will grow increasingly uncomfortable as we head into the weekend. 

So yea, hot. The humidity will also slowly increase, and will become pretty oppressive by early this week, The strong high pressure means sinking air, so the will suppress the chances for showers and storms Friday through Monday. 

That doesn't mean there won't be any widely scattered storms through that period. It just means if any do manage to get going, they'll be few, far between and brief.

It looks like a weak cold front still wants to approach us about next Tuesday, Judging from the forecasts, I'm still pretty unimpressed with what the front will look like. It probably won't bring temperatures down all that much, and I still question how much rain it might bring. 

 

Spring Officially Arrives In Vermont In VERY Springlike Fashion, But It Won't Last

Last week, I burned my brush pile while there was still
snow on the ground to minimize the threat of it spreading.
DO NOT burn your brush pile today. Dry grass and last
year's dead leaves can easily ignite into an out of
control brush fire with today's gusty winds. 

 Astronomical spring arrived in Vermont and of course the rest of the eastern U.S. at precisely 5:01 a.m. this morning. 

The arrival of spring and the arrival of spring weather in Vermont are often two very different things, but this time, the two gelled. 

At 5 a.m. today, at a time of day temperatures are usually in the 20s this time of year, it was 53 degrees in Burlington. On Wednesday, it got up to 72 degrees in Burlington, the warmest so far this year. 

It actually doesn't get to 70 degrees all that often in March up in Vermont. In the past 125 years in Burlington, it has only gotten to 70 degrees in Burlington in 19 Marches. 

It's even more rare to have two days in the 70s in the same March as we will this year.  And it's possible today might be day Number 3 this month to make it into the 70s. 

That amount of warm March air isn't a record, though. In the bonkers, insanely warm March of 2012 it goes into the 70s on five days, with three of those reaching the low 80s.

With climate change, this isn't your grandfather's Vermont spring, is it?

I also noticed overnight from my perch on St. Albans hill that the ice has flushed out of St. Albans Bay, and it's blue water down there now. That lack of ice is a little earlier than usual. 

This being Vermont, you can't count on winter departing once it is spring, even if this warmer world we're living in today. 

TODAY: WARM, WINDY AND FIERY?

Today will be the final day for quite awhile in which you can enjoy shorts and t-shirt weather in Vermont. 

It'll be breezy, especially in the northern Champlain Valley as clouds begin to increase this afternoon.

We're actually joining so much of the nation today with a fire danger.  Nothing extreme, like we've seen in California, Texas, Oklahoma, the Carolinas and other states this year. But with last year's dead grasses, weeds, plants and stuff not having greened up yet, it's easy to set things alight while being careless with fire. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Park and Recreation today has  listed a very high risk of brush fires today,   in places where the snow has melted away. The Champlain Valley is especially susceptible to brush fires as that's where today's winds will be strongest, and the snow is long gone.

I'm so glad I did my annual brush pile burn last week, while there was still snow on the ground.  

COLD FRONT/SNOW

We're still watching that cold front that will put an end to the warm weather tonight. 

It's BACK! Our familiar National Weather Service snow
forecast map. Luckily, most of us shouldn't get much
snow Friday morning, but it could be enough to
make some the roads iffy for Friday's morning commute. 

Rain will move in tonight as temperatures drop.  There's not that much snow left to melt, and the rain won't be especially heavy, so I'm not too worried about any new flooding in Vermont.

 Rivers will run kinda high tonight and tomorrow, but shouldn't cause any real high water problems. 

We still have a storm that will ride north along the front as a sort of nor'easter, which will help pull down colder air and change the rain to snow by morning in many areas. 

For those of you who are tired of winter, sone good-ish news. Less snow will fall that we thought while looking at forecasts a few days ago. 

 Most places away from the mountains should only get a dusting to a couple of inches. However, the snow will hit right during the Friday morning commute, and it wouldn't take much snow to make the roads a bit scary.

So build that possibility into your plans if you're headed off to work or school tomorrow morning. 

THEN WHAT?

That snow will head out quickly Friday morning and it will actually clear up west to east during the day. It will be blustery and much colder, with highs only in the low to mid 40s west and 30s east.

From there on out for the foreseeable future, we should revert back to the usual late March chilly variability. Some days won't be too bad, others will feature at least a little rain or wet snow. Temperatures look like they will pretty much stay near to below normal pretty much every day tomorrow through the beginning of April.

Saturday will actually be sort of mild ahead of a the next cold front. Sunday looks largely sunny and cold, while more rain and snow make a run at us Monday. It's too early to say how much of that schmutz we'll get, but at this point it doesn't look like a huge storm. 

After that, it's nearly impossible to tease out what will come through and when, but next week and the week after that should put a late season chill in your bones. 

On the bright side, it's no longer winter, so most afternoons through the next couple weeks will at least get above freezing.   You take what you can get, right?

Rare Red Flag Warning For Vermont Fire Danger Today, SaturdayLooks Bad Too. aed Flag Warning

Today's fire danger is rated as "very high"
across most of Vermont and "high" in 
the Champlain Valley  and far
northern parts of the state.

You've seen a lot of fire danger posts about Vermont and New England in the past month, but this one is probably the highest level one you've seen yet. 

A rare red flag warning for fire danger is in effect today for the southern Vermont. It covers Bennington and Windham County, and everything east of Route 7 as far north as Middlebury. 

This part of the state should see the gustiest winds and some of the lowest humidities today, which prompted the warning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says this is the first autumn red flag warning in Vermont in at least 18 years. 

The rest of Vermont is not off the hook today. While the weather and drought conditions in the northern and western parts of the state don't quite meet the criteria for that red flag warning, conditions there will still be pretty ripe for any fire starts. And those fires can spread quickly. 

WHY TODAY?

It's just as dry today as it was yesterday, so why the added concern?

The answer is wind.

Thursday featured almost no wind that could spread fires easily.

Today, a storm in the Canadian Maritimes is hooking westward, a little closer to us. It won't get nearly close enough to set off any precipitation in Vermont. But it will be bumping up against high pressure to our west.

That will sort of "squeeze" the air, causing a pretty stiff north wind to get going. The strongest winds, possibly gusting as high as 30 mph, are forecast in the red flag warning zone. That coincides with the part of Vermont that is driest, and deepest in drought. 

Tomorrow probably won't be much better. The humidity in the air will increase a little, which could help a bit. But gusts will probably be as strong as today, if not a little more hefty. 

WHAT TO DO

Obviously, if you've been meaning to burn that pile of brush in the back 40, don't do it. Most places aren't issuing burn permits anyway. 

As for you slobs that flick cigarette butts out your car windows, Stop it! That's one very easy way to set a brush or forest fire. You shouldn't be doing that anyway even if's been raining continuously for a month, as you're littering. 

I'd avoid those outdoor fire pits. Embers from that could land in a nearby field or forest and set a fire. No campfires, either, please. 

Here's another tip that I hadn't thought of until recently. If you're doing some last minute clean up with your lawn mower, remember this: Unlike previous autumns when the leaves and grass were relatively wet, this year they're bone dry.

The hot components of a lawn mower and other landscaping equipment can start fires under these conditions. There have been several brush fires in New Hampshire in recent weeks started by lawnmowers, WMUR reports. 

Also those weed whackers can hit a rock, create a spark and off you go to the races with a fire. 

THE NORTHEAST

It's not just Vermont.

The red flag warnings today extend across the southern half of New Hampshire and all of southern New England. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's an elevated fire danger today from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania northeastward all the way to southwest Maine. 

A similar region has an elevated fire risk Saturday. 

A weak cold front Monday might - if we're lucky - produce isolated very light rain showers in a couple spots in Vermont and New England, but don't count on it. The next chance of any relief is late next week, when signs point to a possible rain storm.

But we've been to this rodeo before.  A few times this autumn, it would sometimes seem we're teed up for a rainstorm a few days out, only for everything to fall apart before the event actually got here.

I'll believe the rain or snow when I see it.