One More Really Hot Day In Vermont, Then It Gets (Slightly) Better

National Weather Service heat risk map for today 
calls for another day of severe to extreme heat in 
the eastern U.S. Purple shading is the most intense het.

The overnight low early this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 76 degrees, so there wasn't much overnight relief from the heat. 

No relief is forthcoming today, though there is at least a dim light at the end of the heat tunnel More on that in a bit. 

THE HEAT SO FAR

A tiny saving grace is the heat hasn't been quite as intense as expected in Vermont, with daily highs running a couple degrees lower than forecasts for the past couple of days. 

That's a contrast to pretty much everywhere in the eastern United States, where the heat has lived up to advance billing.    Yesterday, in Frederick, Maryland,  where I was visiting, I experienced the hottest weather I've ever been in, with a reading of 102 degrees.

In New York City, Central Park reached 100 degrees Friday, the first time it's gotten that hot since July 18. 2012, when it was also 100. Washington DC reached a record high of 102 degrees Friday. The same high temperature of 102 is predicted in Washington today and tomorrow, making Fourth of July celebrations downright dangerous. 

Here in Vermont, it reached 96 in Burlington Friday, short of the predicted peak of 100 degrees.

Montpelier reached 90, hot enough to tie the record high for the date.

So this heat wave hasn't turned out to be the historic Vermont heat wave some of us expected.  It's still hot and very humid. Dangerously so. That Vermont has been falling slightly short of predicted high temperatures doesn't reduce the risk.  The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it is on the human body. We're on day three today, so those that are vulnerable to the heat are having their worst day yet.

Today is a perfect day to kidnap your elderly or ill neighbors and take them to a cool place. 

Thunderstorms have been harassing Vermonters, too. Friday wasn't as wild as Thursday. But some pretty good, non-severe thunderstorms blew through parts of central Vermont in the evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington also issued a special weather statement for  a strong storm that clipped the Northeast Kingdom, but that storm quickly dissipated.

Let's get into the specifics of what's coming next. 

TODAY:

It will be almost as hot as yesterday. It really won't feel any different than yesterday. Most of the state will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s for highs in the Banana Belt hot valleys. 

Once again, because of the heat and the humidity, thunderstorms are a risk. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread or severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chance of strong storms being south and west of Interstate 89 today. In that location there's a marginal, (level one out of five risk)  for storms today. 

More storms and showers should be scattered about tonight ahead of a super weak cold front heading toward us. It will still be a horribly stuffy night.

SATURDAY

Some relief begins. The risk of showers and storms diminishes to nothing north during the morning, and that trend will drift southward during the day. More importantly, you'll start to notice a change in the air during the afternoon and evening. Especially north. It won't turn much less humid, but it will feel a little better. 

Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there. will start out near 70 in the morning, which is terribly steamy. By evening, the dew point will be in the OK but not great low 60s.

SUNDAY

The dew points will continue to drift a little lower by Saturday night and Sunday.  That means dawn will break Sunday with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 60, which will feel much better. 

Sunday should be a classic Vermont summer day, much like last Sunday was. That means highs in the 80s, a little warmer than average. Humidity will be reasonable. 

NEXT WEEK

Monday morning will start off cool and dry, with lows in the 50s to near 60, so pretty nice. The warmth and the humidity will creep up again. Some sort of disturbance looks like it will pass  through on Monday. Early indications suggest some heavy rain might fall on southern Vermont with much lighter stuff up north. 

It's an iffy little system, though, so we'll probable be some adjustments to the forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably Thursday  turn really warm and humid again, but not as bad as today. Still, warmer spots could touch 90 again midweek. 

Chilly And Rainy In Vermont Again Today, But Big Changes Are On Their Way

My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite
relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead
when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, 
but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. 

We endured another nippy May day on Wednesday, with the afternoon arguably being the coldest of the month. 

Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s. 

That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!

Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.

There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes. 

Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon. 

On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50.  That makes it probably the warmest morning since May 

Clouds and rain,  however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow. 

Here are the details. 

TODAY

The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking. 

If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even. 

For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday. 

The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.

But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning,  the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why. 

The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine. 

In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction. 

Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts. 

So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy. 

The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees. 

FRIDAY

This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.

That's what we have coming up. 

Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.

WEEKEND

Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s. 

EARLY WEEK

It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.

We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.

A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt. 

 

 

Big Parts Of Colorado Just Had Their Biggest Snowstorm In Almost A Quarter Century; Up To 28 Inches Reported

Apparently, no al fresco dining in Estes Park, Colorado
after 28 inches of snow fell yesterday and today. 
Photo via Facebook from Matt Levitt Weather

A late season snowstorm has hit large swaths of Wyoming and Colorado which sounds depressing for so late in the season.  

Instead, people are rejoicing, because as the snow melts, it will put the first real dent in the areas's drought in months. 

New snow was reported as deep as 26.1 inches way up in the high country of Boulder County. The city of Boulder itself got about 10 inches. Up in Estes Park in Larimer County, between 22 and 28 inches fell. 

All of Colorado is experiencing a drought. The snow is great news.  What had been expected to be an extraordinarily early start to the fire season might be postponed by a few weeks.  At least in the Front Range.

There was quite a bit of water in that snow. As of late this morning, Fort Collins reported 5.3 inches of snow with total melted precipitation of 1.75 inches. 

Denver itself reportedly got around three or four inches downtown, and around 4.5 to 5 inches around the rest of the city.  This means this was the second or third largest snowstorm of the "winter" even though it hit well into spring.  It was the biggest May snowstorm in Denver since 2003. 

The Denver snow, melted down, amounted to at least 1.1 inches of what is basically rainfall. 

 Final tallies aren't in yet, which is why I"m saying "at least." 

As the snow falls. the warm ground is making it melt from the bottom, and the water soaks into the soil. Once the snow stops, rising temperatures will make the remaining snow melt, which will continue to add moisture to the soil. Gradually, instead of running off like downpours would. So this is perfect. 

Northwestern Colorado is experiencing the worst drought conditions in the state. Many areas in western Colorado unfortunately mostly missed out on the precipitation. Grand Junction, Colorado only had 0.05 inches of precipitation. Gunnison had a little under a quarter inch. 

Which means the drought and potential fire problems are not at all over in Colorado. And most of the rest of the West. 

This isn't to say the storm caused no problems. It did. 

Trees has mostly leafed out in the Denver and Boulder areas thanks to a record warm winter and toasty early spring. Peonies were even blooming. The weight of the snow on leafed out trees caused many branches to snap. Some of them onto power lines. 

About 47,000 Colorado homes and businesses were without power as of early this afternoon. 

Coloradans face some garden misery tonight. The snow is ending, but a snow covered ground means it'll get very cold very fast tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the entire area that had snow. 

The snowstorm in Colorado will soon be forgotten. The snow will melt and quickly!

 Forecasters expect the highs in the low 60s around Denver tomorrow, near 70 Friday through Sunday and rising to the low and mid 80s by early next week.

And the snowstorm isn't traveling anywhere else to hassle any springtime enthusiasts. It's just kind of dwindling away to nothing and drying up.

FEMA Is Messing Up Again During Partial Gov't Shutdown, Thanks To ICE Barbie

Not really surprising, but Kristi Noem is making
disaster relief work for FEMA employees harder
than it needs to be during the
current partial government shutdown. 

The partial government shutdown, affecting the Department of Homeland Security, TSA and the Federal Emergency Management District, is about a week old now, and shows no signs of ending. 

Usually, when this type of things happen, essential workers keep working. That should include FEMA employees who should be helping victims of disasters, like the epic winter storm last month. 

As usually, the Trump administration, namely Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem, seem to be messing it up.  As head of DHS, Noem oversees FEMA. 

According to the Washington Post,  DHS halted almost all travel, which virtually erased the ability of FEMA staff to move in and out of disaster areas. WaPo based its reporting emails and documents the paper obtained.

Homeland Security and FEMA employee typically stop traveling to things like trainings, or conferences during government shutdowns. But a government shutdown almost never stops people from going to disaster areas to help with recovery.  

Per WaPo:

"On Tuesday might, DHS sent out an email ordering a stop to all travel, including for disaster-related work, sparking confusion across FEMA as teams continue to respond to 14 ongoing disaster declarations as a result of brutal winter storms that hit parts of the country last month. 

In another message obtained by the Post, a FEMA official said that 'ALL travel stopped' and noted that 360 people who were slated to go to trainings and other assignments had to stand down. People who were supposed to deploy could begin some work virtually, but DHS now had to sign off on their in-person assignment, the message said." 

 The restrictions on travel have come down even though most FEMA deployments are paid through a Disaster Relief Fund that isn't affected by the shutdown, CNN noted. 

 Officials told the Washington Post that the stoppage on trips to disaster areas reflect policies instituted under Noem.  

"That's why instituting travel restrictions when staffers are still working on this storm responses is even more frustrating, several current employees said. 'They are just trying to make it hurt, and the only people they are hurting are survivors and FEMA employees."

When the no-travel directive went out, official and employees at DHS and FEMA sought guidance from higher ups on how to reach disaster areas and continue their work. 

To justify heading to a disaster zone, staffers were told to submit their justifications to higher ups, including whether the trip was "mission essential"  and involves the "safety of human life or protection of property."

Of course, somebody then has to approve the whole each employee statement, so you can see the bottleneck here. 

FEMA employees are not happy, as you can imagine. "DHS imposing restrictions FEMA's ability to deploy our response/recovery workforce slows us down and limits our ability to respond quickly and effectively to the needs of impacted states and communities," one employee wrote.

People who were in regions hit hard by recent storms could continue their work, at least for now. But other FEMA  employees who were scheduled to rotate in this Thursday to relieve those workers are now barred from doing so. 

The rotations are important for disaster work because FEMA officials who have been working nonstop get a break, refresh, and are able to go full speed ahead when it's their turn to go in again. FEMA is also required to relieve employees who have been working too long in a state where they don't live, WaPo noted.

The delays affect recovery from disasters that happened as long ago as the autumn of 2024, when Hurricane Helene smashed huge swaths of the Southeastern U.S. That's going to create backlogs in the future. 

"'If we can't get people to Florida or North Carolina to help validate damages from Helene, we can't approve funding for these projects,' one FEMA official, who asked not to be identified, told CNN. 'If we can't staff a Disaster Recovery Center in Washington State or Alaska, how can people get help with their assistance applications?'

DHS of course deny that there's a problem, but in a statement said restrictions on travel are "not a choice but are necessary to comply with federal law"

 "While some non-essential activities will be paused or scaled back FEMA remains committed to supporting communities and responding to incidents like Hurricane Helene," according to the DHS statement. 

The travel restrictions during the shutdown are on top of a policy ICE Barbie put in place last year, which states that each expenditure over $100,000 requires Noem's personal approval. That has created enormous backlogs in FEMA funds awaiting her go-ahead. Members of Congress and state officials are also exasperated with this. 

It doesn't help that ICE Barbie is so often too busy cosplaying as some sort of immigration cop for the cameras instead of actually doing her job.

The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last month at the hands of federal immigration officers prompted Democrats to demand reforms in exchange for a spending package to fund affected federal agencies. 

Democrats want to bar immigration officers fm wearing masks. They also want a stop to the "roving patrols" when officers conduct broad searches and stop people, sometimes on the flimsiest of evidence or no evidence that they might be in the U,S, illegally.  They also want to make it easier to pursue legal actions against officers who engage in misconduct. Also, they want agents to display clear identification when encountering the public.

Congress is not due in session again until next Monday, so it will be at least until then before anything is resolved. 

Even before this latest debacle, FEMA was down 1,600 employees compared to a little over a year ago under ICE Barbie's administration. 

 

Vermont October Was Warm, And Surprisingly Wet. Maybe The First Hints Of Drought Relief?

Very low water levels on Lake Champlain, seen here in
Milton, Vermont during a record late season
heat wave on October 6

November is here, so it's time to look back on an October weather.

The month brought more warmth to Vermont, and also provided the first hopeful signs that a few cracks might be forming in our deep, relentless drought. 

October in Vermont had its extremes, and a rainy end made the month actually turn out to be on the wet side. That's a trend we hope we will continue for the next few months.  

 The drought appeared to peak during an early month heat wave that shattered record highs. A rainstorm just after that heat wave offered a hint of wetter times ahead. 

We had to wait until the final 11 days of the month for the skies to finally open up. 

The rainfall was uneven, focusing on northwest Vermont, while cheating other parts of the state out of the heaviest downpours. Here in St. Albans, 6.76 inches of rain came down in those 11 days. In Burlington, those 11 days featured 4.55 inches. 

For the month as a whole, Burlington had 6.27 inches of rain, which surprisingly makes this past month the fourth wettest October on record in Burlington. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rainfall wasn't nearly as heavy in Burlington, but it was least everybody got some rain.  Most weather stations in the state had October rainfall just slightly above normal, with most reports coming in at 3.8 to 4.5 inches. 

Such rainfall is, of course, not enough to emerge from a deep drought. We'll watch anxiously for any heavy rain or even big snowstorms we can get our hands on.  

WARMTH

October was yet another warm month in Vermont, punctuated by an extreme late season heat wave on October 4-7.  Burlington tied its all time high for October with a high of 86 degrees. Montpelier tied its October record at 84 degrees. 

We were on the edge of an incredible October heat wave in southeast Canada that shattered monthly record highs by wide margins. 

All those 80s have been adding up in our age of climate change. In Burlington, 76 days this year got to 80 degrees or more,  Only five other years out of the past 130 have had more 80 degree days in a single year. Four of those years were since 2016. 

Storm clouds gather over South Burlington, Vermont
on October 20, signaling a welcome wet stretch
to close out the month. 

After that early October heat wave, the rest of the month featured no more extreme temperatures, but it remained consistently mild. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 52.9 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees above the climate-change influenced "new normal."

That "new normal" is the average of the years 1990-2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average, due to climate change.  

October, 2025 in Burlington was tied with 2012 as the 12th warmest on record. In general, most other weather stations in Vermont were also very roughly two degrees warmer than average for October. 

For only the seventh time since the 1880s, this October in Burlington had no days with a high temperature colder than 50 degrees. 

Unlike some Octobers, absolutely no snow fell in the state except in the highest elevations. That is until late last night.  Even before midnight switched the calendar to November, some places above 1,500 were snowing. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The outlook heading into November is mixed. 

Long range forecasts, always a bit of a crapshoot, predict near to above normal temperatures for November. The ever-important precipitation outlooks is a tossup, with mostly equal chances of above or below normal rain and snowfall. 

Despite the nice, wet end of October, we still need many drenching rainstorms to fully emerge from our tough drought.  

There's a little rain and mountain snowfall in the Vermont forecast, but nothing big enough to rock our world. 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Somewhat Encouraging For Drought Relief

For most of Vermont, today is dawning as another dreary one, as the sky is having a lot of trouble clearing out. 

A carpet of leaves beneath a sugar maple in St. Albans
Vermont during yesterday's overcast. We're rapidly
getting into stick season. The hope is November will
be wet, and there are chances of some storms, 

We've gotten into that time of year in which it doesn't get sunny too easily, even if there's high pressure nearby. 

We're actually going through a typical November/December type thing now, in which moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air aloft and lingering moisture keep us cloudy. 

Going into this week, it looks like an inversion might set up, meaning we'll have a layer of warm air a few thousand feet up.

That kind of set up also tends to keep thins pretty overcast. The heat from the sun when it is high and strong in the late spring and summer tends to mix the air and get rid of inversions. Which clears the sky. '

The low sun angle this time of year doesn't really have the power to do that.  WHile there is a chance we might clear out at times Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, don't count on it. Especially in northern valleys.

In a way, this is good, because the overcast doesn't allow us to dry out as much as a sunny, unseasonably warm day would.  With our ongoing drought, we don't need things to get worse. 

RAIN CHANCES

What we really need is a series of nice soaking rains like we had this past week. We do have an uncertain shot of something like that toward the end of the upcoming week. And extended forecasts are slightly optimistic on precipitation chances.

The late week shot at rain would come from a potential nor'easter. As always, whether we in Vermont get some decent rains depends on the track of the storm. Too far offshore, and we get nothing spectacular. 

A track that hugs the coast or goes a little inland would be wonderful. And wet.

There's even a chance that horrible Hurricane Melissa would do some good after causing a lot of pain and suffering in the Caribbean.  By the end of the week. Melissa is expected to be out in the Atlantic Ocean, far off the East Coast, zipping northward and weakening. 

There is a chance that the nor'easter could syphon some moisture extra
off of Melissa, and that would enhance the rains in New England. That scenario is far, far from a slam dunk, but it would be nice. 

After our hoped for late week or weekend nor'easter, we want to look for even more rain. We've kept telling you it would take a long time to dig ourselves out of the drought, and that's still so true. Yeah, it might seem damp to you outside now, but we need a lot of rain to really soak into the ground and recharge aquifers and such. 

Extended forecasts are not as reliable, and much more broad brush than the predictions for the next few days. The long range forecasts out this weekend do give us some more hope for more rain. 

The six to ten day outlook, which runs from Halloween to November 4, leans toward above normal precipitation, which makes sense, considering there might be a coastal storm around then. 

The 8 to 14 day outlook, which goes from November 2 to  9, is a tossup, giving us near normal precipitation, with below normal temperatures. Maybe the first snows of the season? We shall see! 

There's also a NOAA three to four week outlook, which takes us well into mid-November. That forecast slightly favors above normal precipitation in northern New England,  but it's not a perfect setup for big soakers. 

A decent share of the computer models in that three to four week range  place a dip in the jet stream somewhere near or over Quebec.  That's not ideal, as it could steer the wettest storms off to our south and east.

However, even if the three to four week forecast is correct, the location and the strength of that dip in the jet stream would vary.   Exactly where it sets up, if it sets up, and how it interacts with other weather systems would determine how much and what kind of precipitation we get.

Note I said what kind. Once we get into November, all bets are off. We could get rain, snow, ice, a mix, you name it.  

At least it's beginning to appear we're escaping that horrible weather pattern we had in August, September and much of October in which warm, arid, sunny high pressure systems would stall over us for weeks at a time. 

This blog thingy might, for a change, frequently mention oncoming inclement weather.  For once, if we get lucky, Vermonters might end up embracing our famously bad November weather. 

Some More Showers, Even Thunder Today, Adding To Needed Vermont Rains

After the rains in my back yard, St. Albans, Vermont 
on Tuesday. Got out there between the the rainfall
Monday and today to get a little fall cleanup done
Was nice to be in such beautiful surroundings. 

We have more rain in the Vermont forecast today, which is great for those of you, ( i.e. everybody)
who hates our deep northern New England drought. 

It won't be a huge dump of water, but any rain is good rain. 

The best rain was of course on Monday. Final rainfall totals are in. 

The best rains were along and just west of the central and northern Green Mountains, and in the northern Champlain Valley.  Some of these totals were really impressive.

Nashville, which is a section of Jericho, Vermont was the big winner with 3.79 inches, though I did receive an unofficial report of 4.25 inches out of Georgia, Vermont. 

Other big totals included 3.55 inches in Warren; 3.44 inches in Chittenden; 3.17 inches in Underhill and 3.16 inches in Hancock.

It was nice to see rivers with actual water in them after that rain. 

TODAY

The amount of rain we'll see today won't come anywhere near what we saw Monday. The National Weather Service is going for maybe a tenth of an inch south of Route 9 near the Massachusetts border a quarter inch give or take between Route 9 and Route 2 and perhaps a third of an inch north of Route 2.

But that's broad brush. This is going to be a showery type thing, so some places will get extra rain, other places will miss out. Kind of like a summer cold front. 

Total rainfall from Monday's storm. Heaviest rain was
in the central and northern Green Mountains and
northern Champlain Valley. A few spots got more
than three inches of badly needed rain 

We even have a chance of a few thunderstorms mixed in. It's kind of a dynamic storm even if its moisture supply isn't huge. Since it's a little chilly, a few storms might feature a bit of small hail.

Don't worry, if you do see hail, it would be the size of peas, not Volkswagens. So nothing damaging or scary. 

We've already seen some brief downpours in northwestern Vermont a little after dawn today. It's a sign the bulk of today's action will be between now and mid afternoon. 

We'll see a lull late this afternoon through most of tomorrow morning. We'll only see widely scattered light showers.

Showers will pick up again tomorrow afternoon. They will be light, though. Just chilly and annoying. We'll be lucky to see another tenth of an inch of rain.  It'll be cold enough on the Green Mountain summits for a little snow.

DRY TIMES AGAIN?

Unfortunately, we are yet to fully escape the weather pattern that encouraged this drought. Since at least August we have repeatedly had huge honking high pressure systems stall over us or in Quebec. 

At first, on Friday and Saturday, it will stay generally cloudy, with maybe a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry or two. Then, nothing. 

These highs have featured super dry air. They also deflect any storms that want to come our way, and eat up any moisture that wants to drift up toward northern New England. 

We have yet another huge honking high that will set up shop over us and Quebec beginning Saturday. That'll keep us in Vermont dry for at least a week.

One cold front will try to approach us next Thursday but that high will probably make those go poof before they get here. Then the big honking high will get reinforced. So after the sprinkles this Friday or Saturday, expect no rain until at least November 1.

That's a full week without precipitation. We've had longer stretches. And since it's late fall, the sun won't dry us out as fast as it could in the summer and early autumn.

Plus, long range forecasts are somewhat encouraging, leaning toward above normal precipitation for at least a little while in early November. 

The drought will linger for a long time yet. But fingers crossed, I'm hoping the drought peaked last week.  Maybe we'll slowly improve. 

The newest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out tomorrow. It will reflect conditions through yesterday. I'll provide an update once it's available 

Glorious Rain Soaks Much Of Vermont, Slightly Denting Drought

One of a series of downpours approaching West Rutland,
Vermont Monday morning. This one even had sort of
a shelf cloud feature you'd see 
with a summer thunderstorm, 

One of the most beautiful sounds I've heard in ages came while I was watching "The Voice" last evening. 

Nope, it wasn't the talented singers on the TV screen. It was the roar of a heavy, long lasting downpour overhead on the roof of the house. 

We got a lot of rain, with a grand, unofficial total of 2.8 inches of rain here in St. Albans. 

Rainfall reports for Vermont were still sparse as I wrote this around 8 a.m. today. 

But it seems rainfall totals were impressive across all but far southern Vermont. Almost everyone along and north of Route 4 had at least an inch of rain.

 In the Green Mountains and in northwestern Vermont, it was closer to 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain. There were spot reports of 3.5 inches. Plattsburgh, New York set a rainfall record for the date of 2.1 inches. 

Other totals include 1.60 inches in Burlington, 1.43 inches in Rutland, and 1.27 inches in Montpelier. 

If we were not in a deep drought, we might have even had some minor flooding this morning. 

The drought is so severe, though, that I'll bet the rain, as wonderful as it was, only put a small dent in the drought. We'll need several more storms this fall and winter to get us out of trouble with dry ground, empty wells and low water. 

Still, the rain had some immediate benefits. 

Satellite view of Monday's storm, taken around 4 p.m.
Judging by this image, I'd guess the center of the 
storm was about over Fair Haven, Vermont at the time.

A fire sparked by ammunition Sunday at the Ethan Allen Firing Range in Jericho is contained. Because of live ordnance, it's too dangerous to send firefighters in. But Monday's rain certainly helped.

Several wild and forest fires blew up in northern New York Sunday. The largest ones were in Plattsburgh, Hogansburg and Bloomingdale, New York, according to WPTZ . 

The fires were being brought under control Sunday night, but torrential rains in eastern New York Monday had to  have helped immensely. 

THE STORM

The storm system Monday was a best case scenario for all but southern Vermont. 

The center of circulation passed up through western Vermont. Ahead of the storm, a feed of deep Atlantic moisture swept northwestward into all but southwest Vermont. 

During the evening, what is known as a deformation zone formed mostly in northwest Vermont and northeast New York. The storm was generally heading slowly north, while moisture was wrapping around heading westward. 

This stretched the atmosphere in a sense, helping create rising air over the northern Champlain Valley. Rising air helps created rainfall, especially if a lot of moisture is already in the area. Which is why the rain was drumming so hard on my metal roof in St. Albans while I was watching TV last evening. 

It was interesting to watch the radar of the rainfall yesterday afternoon. By 4 p.m. the storm center was close to Rutland. Rain was moving southeast to northwest roughly along and north of Interstate 89.  South of Interstate 89, showers were traveling in the exact opposite direction, northwest to southeast.  

Around 8:30 last night, the rain let up for a little while here in St. Albans. The radar showed heavier rain swirling in a circle centered more or less on St. Albans,  meaning the storm was nearly overhead. 

Far southwest Vermont missed out on that initial moisture feed off the Atlantic. And places like Bennington were too far south to enjoy much rain from that deformation zone. So they only received 0.34 inches of rain. 

We hope the Bennington area gets hit with a storm soon, but there's no immediate sign of that. But Vermont is still in for a little bit more rain. 

UPCOMING

We don't have another drenching storm on the horizon to batter the drought even more. But it's going to rain again this week, so that'll help hold the bit of gain we got yesterday. 

A few light showers were lingering in northern Vermont this morning, but those should evaporate before noon.

Rainfall forecast now through early Friday. This is subject
to change, but right now we're looking at maybe a 
quarter inch additional rain in western Vermont 
with up to half an inch east. 

We'll see some sun behind our big soaker of a storm today and it will be mild-ish for this time of year, with highs reaching the low 60s

Enjoy today. because it's going to get chilly and damp. A slow, lumbering storm -much weaker than the one we just had, should spread frequent showers across Vermont tomorrow. 

This thing may even have enough energy to spit out a rumble or two of thunder. 

This thing will linger through Thursday night or Friday, so expect continued light showers to continue until then. 

Rainfall won't amount to much, but anything is still good at this point. Early guesses that between late tonight and Friday morning, western Vermont could see a quarter inch or so of rain with up to a half inch east. 

It still looks like mountain summits might get cold enough to see a little snow. It'll only accumulate near the tippy top of the highest peaks. So you won't have to worry about winter driving. But the mountain snow might get you thinking about, and putting yourself in the market for winter tires. 

It's coming sooner than you'd think.  

Dry, Warm Windy Sunday Yields To A Rainy Vermont Monday.

Lingering fall foliage near Proctor, Vermont Sunday, which
might have been the last truly warm day of 2025 as highs
got well into the 70s. We're now going into a wet week
which is great, given the deep drought Vermont
is still experiencing. 

Sunday brought Vermont and surrounding areas a last gasp of summer. The high temperature Sunday in Burlington reached a balmy 76 degrees, just four degrees short of the record for the date. 

Over in northern New York, it was even warmer. Massena reached 82 degrees, enough to break the record high for the date. 

The wind and the warmth brought us a high fire danger Sunday. One fire broke out in the woods at the Vermont National Guard Ethan Allan Firing Range in Jericho.  The Guard was dealing with it instead of local fire departments, because it is a firing range, after all. There's the risk of live ordnance. 

At last report, fire departments in Underhill and Jericho were standing by, but not involved in battling the blaze, WCAX reports. Hikers atop Mount Mansfield could clearly see a large plume of smoke rising from the area. 

TODAY

The warm air is lingering into this morning. At dawn, temperatures in much of Vermont were in the low 60s, which is something you'd expect that time of day in July, not the second half of October.

 It won't warm up all that much today because of the clouds and rain, but highs in the mid and upper 60s are still pretty comfortable for this time of year. 

The big news is the badly needed rain, which was arriving as scheduled as dawn broke today. 

If that fire is still burning at the Firing Range in Jericho, the Vermont National Guard is still going to get an assist from the skies today.  

We're still expected a little more than an inch of rain
through Thursday morning in all but far southern 
Vermont. This is no drought buster, but at least
it'll prevent things from getting even worse. 

Early this morning, the showers were pretty light and scattered, moving rapidly south to north across Vermont. It appears the rain will stay showery, but become much more widespread and occasionally fairly heavy starting mid morning and into the afternoon. 

One change in the forecast from yesterday is it looks like most of today's rain will stay out of far southern Vermont.  Yesterday, we thought the heaviest rain would hit the south most, with less north far north. . 

This morning's forecast is the opposite. Through tomorrow morning, as little as a quarter inch of rain might fall along and south of Route 9, though east facing slopes of the Green Mountains should do a little better.  Yesterday, we were thinking those areas could get close to an inch. 

The rainfall is still forecast to amount to an inch, give or take,  in many places along and north of Route 4. Even the Northeast Kingdom, which was forecast to see a half inch of rain, is now expecting maybe three quarters of an inch.

It's a pretty dynamic weather system, so it might power up enough to give us a few rumbles of thunder here and there. Nothing severe, though.  

The National Weather Service has removed the wind advisory from the western slopes of the Green Mountains. It won't be as gusty as first thought.  

WET WEATHER CONTINUES

Though we won't get rid of the drought, this will be the best week we've had in months for rainfall. After today, we have more shots at rain all week. Which is good, because we need frequent bouts of rain to ease the drought. 

For awhile, anyway, we're out of the pattern of long, weeks long dry spells between rainfall. After today, the rainfall won't be heavy, and there will be winners and losers when it comes to amounts. But there's decent chances rain Wednesday, Thursday and maybe Friday. 

Tuesday will be the driest day of the week. And the last warm day. Today's storm will be gone, and the next one coming in from the west won't be here yet. So well, have a pleasant late October day: Partly sunny skies, and high-up in the 60. 

The thing coming in from the west is a slow, lumbering thing. It'll be mostly cloudy, with frequent showers Wednesday and Thursday. The best chance showers and the most precipitation will be in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Total precipitation Wednesday through Friday looks to be as little as a tenth to a quarter an inch in southeast Vermont and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley, with a half inch or more in the northern and central Green Mountains. 

Some of that precipitation in the mountains will probably be in the form of snow. It's that time of year, folks. I expect the mountain summits to have their first real accumulating snow of the year. It will only be a few inches at most, but it's something. 

For us valley dwellers, it'll be our introduction to November. Cloudy, cool, drizzly. Usually, ,that's depressing. But in a drought year, we'll take it! 

For A Change In Vermont, A Wet Week Is Coming, And That Will Be Glorious. (Drought To Linger, Though)

A blue sky view from South Burlington, Vermont Friday
looking toward New York's Adirondacks. Many of
the leaves you see in this photo will be off the
trees by Tuesday after an expected bout of
wind and very welcome rain. 

Fingers crossed, it still looks like Vermont is in for a wet week. 

It won't end the drought, and overall, the weather pattern won't exactly turn soggy, But at least the drought won't keep getting worse, at least for a little while. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is expecting more than an inch of rain between Sunday night and the end of the week. 

We have two storms to get through. The stronger of the two wet weather systems is coming at the beginning of the week. Then, a slower, weaker, colder system comes in toward the end of the week. 

NICE WEEKEND

Before we get there, we have a nice weekend to deal with. We won't have the bright sunshine we had yesterday. But it will be warmer, despite periods of clouds we'll see today. Highs should top 60 degrees in many towns, which is just slightly warmer than average for this time of year.

 Tomorrow, you'll feel the impending storm coming. South winds will increase, so will the clouds.  And the temperatures.  In the Champlain Valley, you'll see gusts go to 30 mph or a little more as temperatures soar to near or a little above 70 degrees. 

Current forecast for rainfall between Sunday night and
Tuesday morning. Some areas could get more than
an inch of rain. Some more rain might also hit
later in the week. This forecast is 
subject to change. 

We'll probably only get that warm a handful of times this year, and it's possible we won't see 70 again until next spring. So enjoy tomorrow!

The rain will come in by dawn Monday, and it looks like it will continue all day, or at least most of it.

As of this morning, the expected rainfall ranges from a half inch or so in the Northeast Kingdom, to three quarters of a inch in central Vermont and maybe an inch or a little more in the south.  

The wind and the rain will introduce most of us to stick season, if it hasn't already arrived where you are. 

Lingering leaves on the trees will get blown and washed off by the storm.  By Monday night, the only lingering fall color we'll see will be in parts of the Champlain Valley and warmer, deeper valleys near and south of Route 4. 

MORE RAIN? AND SNOW?

We'll get a break Tuesday, with only the risk of scattered showers. For a change, we won't have a blast of dry air to evaporate whatever moisture we receive, so that's good. 

Then, it looks like  a slow moving, upper level storm will come in from the west. This one won't exactly drown us, but it will provide us with damp, dreary, showery weather.  Early guesses are the second half of the week will bring us another quarter to half inch of rain. 

Colder too. It's looking more and more like Vermont has its first real shot at snow. Not everywhere. But if the forecast holds, you'll see white-topped mountains for the first time this year.  

 

A Welcomed Drencher In Vermont After Record October Heat. But Drought Continues, And A Freeze Tomorrow Night, Too

Some pretty clouds early Tuesday morning over St.
Albans, Vermont were the first sign of some welcome
rain that hit Vermont overnight. Many places had
well over an inch of rain, but that won't be 
nearly enough to mitigate our serious drought. 

The weird Vermont October heat wave is decidedly over, drowned by a cold front that brought some extremely welcomed and locally heavy rain to the region. 

The heat did hang on for one more day on Tuesday before the rain moved in. 

I'm not aware of any more record highs in Vermont Tuesday, but several places got above 80 degrees. Burlington had its fourth consecutive 80+ reading before the clouds and rain arrived.

I had been reporting that four 80 degree days in a row would be a record long streak for such warmth in Burlington, but I was mistaken. 

There was also a four consecutive day stretch of 80 degree weather from October 16-20, 1947. So I stand corrected. We did tie that record though. 

Rainfall was gloriously generous in at least some parts of Vermont overnight.  Burlington had 1.63 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans filled up to 1.77 inches. 

As of 8 a.m., it was still raining at a pretty good clip in central and southern Vermont, but through that hour, Montpelier had so far accumulated 1.42 inches, St. Johnsbury 1.3 inches and Rutland 1.85 inches. A few lucky spots near and west of the Green Mountains might have rainfall totals near two inches.  

Bennington and Springfield had an inch or less of rain through 8 a.m., but one more patch of fairly heavy rain was about to go through both communities as of this writing. 

This marvelous rain will probably prevent the drought from continuing to get worse for a few days, but will by no means end it. We need inches and inches of rain over a few months to really soak through and recharge the ground water, and once again make our forests too wet to burn.  

Before the rains came, there were some new reports Tuesday of brush fires in Vermont. A pretty good sized one was reported in Bakersfield Tuesday. Some outbuildings were reported damaged. 

To demonstrate how one rain storm cannot erase a drought, there were reports of some minor rekindles of Bakersfield fire early this morning, despite the drenching overnight rains. 

Unfortunately, it looks like there's very little rain in our immediate future. More on that in a bit

FROST/FREEZE

The rain was exiting Vermont as of mid-morning.  There could be a few light showers in the mountains this afternoon and evening, but that won't amount to anything. As cold air rushes in, there could even be a few snowflakes on some of the summits tonight. It's that time of year, folks!

It will be cool today, but since we started the day still on the warm-ish side, we will manage to reach the 50s to around 60 this afternoon. 

Tonight will not actually be the coldest night of this seasonable October cool snap, but if you have plants out there, you probably should try to protect them.

Thursday will be bright and chilly. Sunshine and crisp air in the 50s, with some upper 40s in northern hilly areas. This should make it feel like autumn has finally, belatedly arrived.

Thursday night and Friday will bring the end of the growing season to all of us except maybe some places right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

I think almost everybody will be at or below freezing by dawn Friday. As for your gardens, I guess it's time to stick a fork in it. Most places away from the Champlain Valley will get into the 20s, with maybe something close to 20 degrees in the coldest hollows.

The average date of the first autumn freeze in Burlington is around October 8, so it looks like this year will be pretty close to average.

After Friday morning, temperatures will rise to seasonable levels and stay that way into next week. That means daily lows near 40 and highs in the low 60s, give or take. 

MISSED RAIN OPPORTUNITY

A very wet, kind of strong nor'easter looks like it wants to get going along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend, giving areas along the coast from the Carolinas to Long Island some heavy rain. 

Usually, such a setup would mean rain for us in Vermont, too. But the latest in a series of big, dry, honking high pressure systems looks like it wants to stall nearby or just north of us, as so many similar systems have done since August. 

That high will probably prevent the nor'easter from bringing much if any rain our way. Some but definitely not all runs of the American computer model do manage to  bring rain from this system our way. The other computer models keep us dry, because they predict the Big Honking High will block the storm from moving north and then deflect it southeastward out to sea. 

Most experienced meteorologists are going with the drier forecast in this case. 

That would leave us with another long dry spell, and an opportunity for the drought to start worsening again.  

One More Nice Slug Of Rain Coming To Vermont Before Drought Returns

National Weather Service rainfall forecast map through
Friday morning. We hope it comes true, as it gives 
more than an inch of rain to southern Vermont and 
three quarters of an inch or so to the north. 

One bit of minor drought relief is behind us here in Vermont, and another dose of rain is coming. 

But as I said yesterday, this will do little to solve our drought problems.  

As has often been the case since early August, what little rain we got focused on northwest Vermont. Some areas there got more than half an inch By contrast, many areas in far southern Vermont received less than a tenth of an inch Tuesday, which pretty much does no good.

You can tell how ineffective yesterday's rains were. There's still a high fire danger in Vermont today, according to the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

Rains from tomorrow's storm should be more widely distributed than yesterday's mini storm.  I really hope the current forecast holds, because it gives close to 1.5 inches of rain through Friday morning in far southern Vermont and very roughly three quarters of an inch north.

That would put a small dent in the drought. However, we won't be able to see what kind of dent, if any, in the next weekly U.S. Drought Report, due out tomorrow.. That's because the data that goes into it ends on Tuesday. As noted, the rain yesterday would not have been enough to affect the drought one way or another. 

I think the report might end up showing a worsening situation, since there was no rain in Vermont leading up to Tuesday.  Of course, I'll do an update here tomorrow when that report comes out. 

FORECAST SPECIFICS

Many of us woke up to some dense fog this morning. The rain yesterday, combined with calm, humid air last night ensured the bad visibility on the roads when you were on the way to work this morning. 

The fog was burning off after sunrise. The rest of today will be kind of meh. 

Skies will be mostly cloudy, but with some breaks in the clouds, especially north. It will remain a little humid for this time of year. There could be a few showers, mainly south, but they won't amount to anything. Temperatures should reach the low 70s north, and maybe hold near the upper 60s south under somewhat thicker clouds. 

Tomorrow, a weak storm, but one with a nice slug of moisture with it, will come at us from the southwest and go almost directly overhead. Steady rains should blow in overnight tonight and continue tomorrow morning, and maybe into the afternoon. 

During the afternoon, the rain should turn more showery, but we're hoping there will be a lot of them. We might even see some local downpours and rumbles of thunder.  

We've been disappointed by weak rains so much, so I'm hesitant to get too optimistic. There's still time for things to go wrong and have the best rains miss us. But fingers crossed! 

GOING DRY AGAIN

Then, poof! The rain goes away. Seemingly forever. Our somewhat rainy week is turning out to be a brief blip in our dry weather pattern. That dry pattern returns enthusiastically this weekend.  

I suppose there might be a lingering shower Friday, but you'll barely notice it even if does rain. Then it's dry and warm again. We'll be back to lots of sunshine and low humidity starting Friday afternoon and going well into next week, 

Temperatures will be somewhat above normal as well. The warmer it is, the better evaporation you get, so even that's working against us. 

Meanwhile, something interesting might start to happen off the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend and early next week. It appears two tropical storms or even hurricanes might develop near and east of the Bahamas. 

When two such storms develop too close to each other, like what seems to be happening here, they do weird things. They can rotate around each other for awhile. The stronger of the two can absorb the weaker one. One or both can spin off and go in weird directions, 

This will give meteorologists major headaches trying to forecast what they will do.   Pass them the Tylenol, despite what President Trump might say about it.

The reason I even bring this up in this post is, we don't know how these storms might affect the U.S., if at all. As noted, it's too unpredictable. 

But the most certain part of this very uncertain forecast is that strong high pressure looks like it will deflect these storms well away from New England. Especially northern New England. 

I don't wish a hurricane on us, of course. But it would have been nice if one or both of these wannabe tropical storms flung some moisture our way. Miracles can happen, but it doesn't look like anything like that is in the cards.

Instead, it looks like Vermont will see almost no rain after tomorrow at least into mid-October. Oh, sure, some weak fronts might give us a little light rain from time to time between now and October 15. But so far at least, we have no more soakers after tomorrow, 

As I said yesterday, I hope I'm wrong about this!

Northern New England/Canada Fire Danger Today; Still Hanging On Potential Rain Forecast Sunday/Monday

A hollyhock blossom basks in the sun and awaits 
forecasted rain Saturday morning in St. Albans, Vermont,

It hasn't rained here in northern Vermont since Sunday or since Tuesday down south. Both rainfalls were pathetically light. 

Since then, we've had lots of sun, and rock bottom humidity. Very nice, but not great for our developing drought. 

Today, the wind is picking up. There's definitely a risk of brush fires today. 

The drought in New England is most intense in Maine closest to the coast.

 The National Weather Service office in Caribou, Maine, is warning residents there of "potential for uncontrolled fire spread across the Downeast, Bangor Region and Central Highlands today."

Southeast Canada is on guard for fires, too. Unlike here in New England, places like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have already experienced large, damaging brush and forest fires. 

In New Brunswick, fire activity has decreased in recent days, which is awesome news, but they are on guard up there. In Nova Scotia, winds from offshore Hurricane Erin helped fan a large wildfire near West Dalhousie that has consumed about 32 square kilometers, or about 20 square miles. 

Here in Vermont, the forest fire danger remains high today, as the humidity remains arid, the sun continues to blaze and winds pick up. 

Luckily, it still looks like the fire danger will be tamped down starting tomorrow, though that might well be temporary. The drought will continue, but at least some rains will interrupt its worsening trend.   

RAINY BREAK 

This morning's National Weather Service rainfall
prediction map shows more than a half inch of
rain through Monday in most of Vermont. Rainfall
forecasts like this are subject to change. 

The increasing wind today is the first signs of the welcome rains.  It's also another sign summer is waning.  Summertime cold fronts don't generate much wind, except within strong or severe thunderstorms.  

Once you get into autumn, the parent storms with cold fronts start to get stronger, so the wind increases. 

That wind will peak tonight, with some places gusting as high as 35 mph.  That's obviously not especially dangerous, but you might want to unfurl those umbrellas over your deck tables before you go to bed tonight. 

The wind will not have had a chance to get too strong today, gusting to maybe 25 mph. Those breezes combined with low humidity will actually feel good even though temperatures get well into the 80s. 

Sunday will feel more humid, and there will be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Not everyone will get all that wet Sunday. Some places, especially south and east, might have to wait until Sunday night to start seeing some decent rains as the cold front starts moving into the region. 

Although a few of Sunday's storms might get a little rambunctious, meteorologists don't expect much in the way of severe weather. 

It looks like an interesting little storm will get going near the North Carolina coast and head quickly northeastward off of New England toward southeast Canada Monday. This might be sort of a semi-tropical system.  Up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, this little storm looks like it could drop a lot of badly needed rain, which is great news for them.

Even though this storm won't directly affect Vermont, I'm mentioning it because it could give us a bit of an assist. 

National Weather Service meteorologists think this storm might slow down the cold front over Vermont Monday and boost it with a little extra moisture. That would prolong the rain we're getting and add to the overall totals. 

You can see that in the rain forecast from late Saturday through Monday. Northern New York looks like it will be a little too far west to benefit from that front slowing down on Monday. Some places out there might not even see a quarter inch of rain out of this,   

Vermont would get a little more, with many places seeing a half inch to an inch of rain. At least as something doesn't go wrong with the forecast and we get cheated out of rain again. I'm not going to rejoice until I see water in my rain gauge. 

The rainfall totals is will be highly variable again, because of the expected scattered thunderstorms. Some Vermont towns might miss out and receive less than a half inch of rain, while other places could get bonus storms that would bring rainfall totals to as much as 1.5 inches. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF

If the current schedule holds, most of the rain Monday would come early in the day with perhaps a bit of clearing later. 

Unfortunately, the predicted rain Sunday and Monday seems to be a one-off and not a change in the weather pattern toward something soggier.

It'll be a cool week with air coming down from Canada.  The ginger ale is called Canada Dry for a reason. There's not much atmospheric moisture up there. Weak disturbances in the air flow might touch off some light showers. 

That could be especially true on Thursday, as a lot of the computer models swing a reinforcing cold front through here. Basically just count on sprinklers.  Most of us will seen a tenth of an inch of rain or less next week after Monday. 

The cooler than average air will probably last until next weekend. At that point, it could start to warm up a bit, but persistent high pressure nearby would keep wet weather fronts away for awhile.   

We're not going to easily shake out of our dry weather pattern heading into autumn. It might be time to start hoping for the remnants of old tropical storms to come through in September and early October, followed by a series of nor'easter later in the autumn and into the winter. 

Yes, you saw it here first. I'm actually hoping for bad weather.  

Another Day Of 90 Degree Vermont Heat Wednesday; Possible Severe Weather Today, Then.... Ahhhhhhh!

Best chance of severe storms today is in northern
New England (yellow shaded area). Southern
Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and
there is an extremely low but not zero chance
of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday reached 93 degrees, making it the fifth time this month and the ninth this year so far in which it got into the 90s. 

We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.

In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.

I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010. 

There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that. 

But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year. 

We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June.   Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington. 

 On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six.  And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so. 

HEAT AND STORMS  

Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.

The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.

Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll  have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.

But there is a cold front coming our way.  That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine).  NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.

Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today. 

The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont.  But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.  

There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall. 

I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.

BIG RELIEF

When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.

The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed. 

The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief. 

 During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys. 

The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees.  That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity. 

A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

 If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington,  it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.

Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side.  It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.  

A BIG Break Coming In Vermont Heat, Humidity, Storm Threat Siege

Another muggy morning dawns on my mid-summer
perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont. Much 
better air is finally due around here on Friday,
but we have heat and storm threats before then.

Yesterday was the eighth day already this summer that Burlington, Vermont made it to 90 degrees, so we're already ahead of normal for the entire year with those kinds of temperatures. 

It used to be the average number of 90 degree days was half that. Now, I see the average being bandied about as six, as such hot days have increased in recent years.

MORE HEAT

Today is a lock in Burlington - and many other towns in Vermont, for another day with temperatures above 90 degrees. It'll even be a little hotter than yesterday, 

The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys. If you combine today's heat and high humidity, the air will feel like it's in the mid and upper 90s. 

The rest of Vermont doesn't quite qualify for an official heat advisory, but it will feel horrible out there. You'll need to take it easy. 

The good news is the smoke and haze from wildfire smoke from yesterday is a little thinner. The bad news is it's still in the air, though. So the combination of a  little air pollution and the hot, humid air won't be so great on the lungs. 

CHANGES AFOOT

If you're tired of this weather, I've got a little more good news. A cold front that would end the heat is looking like it has a little more oomph than previously thought, and it's coming at us a little more quickly that originally planned. 

Before we get there, it's going to be hot and noisy.  Very typically, something called a pre-frontal trough often comes through before the actual cold front. That pre-frontal trough looks like it will come through after midnight tonight, 

So on top of the stuffy, humid air you'll deal with if you don't have air conditioning, you might be woken up early in the morning by thunder or the roar of a downpour on the roof, Not everyone will bet that, but some of us will.

The clusters of storms will move fairly slowly, so there's a low risk of local flash flooding. If anything happens, it will be isolated.

There's a slight chance Burlington could make it to 90 again tomorrow, but clouds and storm threats will probably keep things in the humid 80s. 

The actual cold front looks like it wants to come through in the late afternoon or evening. The timing is such that we might have another round of severe thunderstorms 

It looks to be the typical thing. Hit and miss. A few towns will get blasted by damaging winds and hail and torrential rains. Many of us will get a garden variety storm or just some rain. A few places will get nothing at all.

One literal twist in this is the low pressure system attached to the cold front will past by not far to our northwest, in southern Ontario and southern Quebec. This little low pressure system will add a bit of spin to the atmosphere. If that happens, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center suggests, there would be a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado with this.

That type of chance happens two or three times a summer, it seems, so there you go.

For now, there's a lowest level marginal chance of severe storms and flash floods in Vermont. I suspect they might eventually slightly boost the chances of severe storms from "marginal" to "slight" which would be level two out of five on the risk scale. Stay tuned

WHAT COMES NEXT

The dew point, a rough measure of how humid the air feels, has been hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s for days. That -  as you know - is oppressive as hell.

You're going to love Friday and Saturday. Dew points Friday and Saturday are forecast to crash down into the 50s, which is quite comfortable. It will stay warm but certainly not hot. Highs Friday will be in the 70s, with a couple spot low 80s here and there. 

Friday night's temperatures should drop into the 50s, so fling open those windows and let those cool night breezes in! Saturday looks sunny, the humidity will stay low and temperatures should pop back up into the low 80s. A Chamber of Commerce weather day, at least we hope!

We have an uncertain chance of showers on Sunday, we're not sure about that yet. But if it does rain a little in Burlington Sunday, that'll break the record for most consecutive weekends with rain at 31,  It's fun to see record broken, so I actually hope we get a sprinkle or two Sunday. Maybe before dawn or after dusk would be nice.