Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Somewhat Encouraging For Drought Relief

For most of Vermont, today is dawning as another dreary one, as the sky is having a lot of trouble clearing out. 

A carpet of leaves beneath a sugar maple in St. Albans
Vermont during yesterday's overcast. We're rapidly
getting into stick season. The hope is November will
be wet, and there are chances of some storms, 

We've gotten into that time of year in which it doesn't get sunny too easily, even if there's high pressure nearby. 

We're actually going through a typical November/December type thing now, in which moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air aloft and lingering moisture keep us cloudy. 

Going into this week, it looks like an inversion might set up, meaning we'll have a layer of warm air a few thousand feet up.

That kind of set up also tends to keep thins pretty overcast. The heat from the sun when it is high and strong in the late spring and summer tends to mix the air and get rid of inversions. Which clears the sky. '

The low sun angle this time of year doesn't really have the power to do that.  WHile there is a chance we might clear out at times Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, don't count on it. Especially in northern valleys.

In a way, this is good, because the overcast doesn't allow us to dry out as much as a sunny, unseasonably warm day would.  With our ongoing drought, we don't need things to get worse. 

RAIN CHANCES

What we really need is a series of nice soaking rains like we had this past week. We do have an uncertain shot of something like that toward the end of the upcoming week. And extended forecasts are slightly optimistic on precipitation chances.

The late week shot at rain would come from a potential nor'easter. As always, whether we in Vermont get some decent rains depends on the track of the storm. Too far offshore, and we get nothing spectacular. 

A track that hugs the coast or goes a little inland would be wonderful. And wet.

There's even a chance that horrible Hurricane Melissa would do some good after causing a lot of pain and suffering in the Caribbean.  By the end of the week. Melissa is expected to be out in the Atlantic Ocean, far off the East Coast, zipping northward and weakening. 

There is a chance that the nor'easter could syphon some moisture extra
off of Melissa, and that would enhance the rains in New England. That scenario is far, far from a slam dunk, but it would be nice. 

After our hoped for late week or weekend nor'easter, we want to look for even more rain. We've kept telling you it would take a long time to dig ourselves out of the drought, and that's still so true. Yeah, it might seem damp to you outside now, but we need a lot of rain to really soak into the ground and recharge aquifers and such. 

Extended forecasts are not as reliable, and much more broad brush than the predictions for the next few days. The long range forecasts out this weekend do give us some more hope for more rain. 

The six to ten day outlook, which runs from Halloween to November 4, leans toward above normal precipitation, which makes sense, considering there might be a coastal storm around then. 

The 8 to 14 day outlook, which goes from November 2 to  9, is a tossup, giving us near normal precipitation, with below normal temperatures. Maybe the first snows of the season? We shall see! 

There's also a NOAA three to four week outlook, which takes us well into mid-November. That forecast slightly favors above normal precipitation in northern New England,  but it's not a perfect setup for big soakers. 

A decent share of the computer models in that three to four week range  place a dip in the jet stream somewhere near or over Quebec.  That's not ideal, as it could steer the wettest storms off to our south and east.

However, even if the three to four week forecast is correct, the location and the strength of that dip in the jet stream would vary.   Exactly where it sets up, if it sets up, and how it interacts with other weather systems would determine how much and what kind of precipitation we get.

Note I said what kind. Once we get into November, all bets are off. We could get rain, snow, ice, a mix, you name it.  

At least it's beginning to appear we're escaping that horrible weather pattern we had in August, September and much of October in which warm, arid, sunny high pressure systems would stall over us for weeks at a time. 

This blog thingy might, for a change, frequently mention oncoming inclement weather.  For once, if we get lucky, Vermonters might end up embracing our famously bad November weather. 

Weird Post-Christmas Winter Hot Spell To Embrace Most Of North America. But It Might Not Last Long

Forecast map via Tropical Tidbits showing most
of North America with temperatures above normal
roughly a week from now.  The map shows
how far temperatures would be above or
below normal for this time of year. They'd
be farthest above normal near Hudson Bay,
but since it's winter, those "warm" temperatures
would only be in the 20s and 30s.

 We're heading into the depths of winter in North America, but you wouldn't know it given the Christmas Week forecast for almost the whole continent.  

Normally, large sections of the vast land mass would be colder than average for the season while other big areas would be having mild spells. 

By mid to late week, the only areas that will be chiller than usual for the end of December are Alaska and a small adjacent piece of northwest Canada.  Western Mexico might also be on the cool side, but not by much. 

Virtually all of Canada, from the British Columbian coast to Labrador, and from the southern tip of Ontario all the way north to Nunavut in the Arctic will be warmer than average.

Same is true coast to coast in the Continental U.S., except for maybe a small spot in California's Central Valley.

Now, it's winter, so nobody will be exactly hot. A few record highs are possible during this weird spell, especially in areas of Canada roughly near Hudson Bay, and then down toward the Great Lakes. 

For instance, in northwestern Quebec, near the shores of Hudson Bay, normal highs this time of year and in the teens to near 20 below Fahrenheit.  By the end of the week, those places will be in the mid 20s to low 30s above zero Fahrenheit, which is impressively balmy for this time of year. 

I'll want to oversimplify this, but is a forecast
showing the overall air flow in North America
in the last days of December. Follow the green
lines, You seen they come off the Pacific'then curl
north into eastern Canada. That blocks any cold
air in far north from coning toward the U.S. Red
hatched lines in Canada depict an upper air 
pattern that strongly favors warmer 
than average temperatures.

But the impressive thing is how huge this area of above normal temperatures will be, especially for this time of year.

The reason for this is a massive flow of mild Pacific air flowing into North America from the west.  Additionally, there's a massive northward bulge in the jet stream beginning to form. It's centered in central and eastern Canada, and by the end of the week will be enormous. 

That warm Pacific Ocean air will be forced to move both eastward across the United States, and northward through central and eventually into northeastern Canada - way the hell up there. 

This arrangement is pushing the usual pools of frigid air far to the northwest, centering it north of Alaska. Plus, this cold pool looks like it's smaller in size and weaker than you'd usually see in the winter. 

Usually, this cold pool is much stronger, and often extends across much of the northern half of Canada, and often centers itself near or not far from Hudson Bay. When that happens, the usual, occasional bursts of Arctic air can easily flow into southern Canada and the eastern two thirds of the United States.

As long as this weird weather pattern holds in place, there will be no more cold air to be had in eastern North America for awhile, at least after a zone of frigid air over southern Quebec and the northeastern U.S. gets out of here within a few days.

Don't expect this balmy North American winter to last forever. In fact it probably won't last all that long.  

It appears one of the more likely scenarios is that the big northward bulge in the jet stream over Canada might split in two, with one northward bump to the east, and the other in western Canada. That would create a southward dip in the jet stream between the two. That southward dip would allow cold Arctic air to eventually spill into south-central Canada and at least parts of the United States. 

If I had to guess, this would start happening a few day into the New Year.  NOAA's three to four week outlook, issued Friday and covering the period January 4 to 17, pretty strongly predicts below normal temperatures for most of the eastern two thirds of the United States.  The cooling trend in New England might (or might not!) wait until a couple or few days after January 4.

 

Wow! Here's A Switch! First Warmer/Drier Than Normal Forecast in California In Many Weeks

Funny how a routine long range forecast can blow a weather geek of their seat.

Here's something not seen in months: Drier than 
normal weather is forecast in California 8 to14
days from now after an incredibly stormy winter. 

Today, I took a gander at the daily updated eight to 14 day United States weather outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. 

This forecast, covering April 7 to 13 is starting lean toward above normal temperatures in northern California and near normal reading in the southern half of the state. This April 7-13 period also has the state in drier than normal conditions.

This is the first time in many, many weeks in which the West Coast forecast did not call for well below normal temperatures and well above normal rain and snowfall. 

This news, welcome by many no doubt, comes after another cold storm dumped another one to two feet of snow on many of California's snow-crushed higher elevations. 

The latest storm brings the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada to the deepest and wettest since at least before 1983, and is probably in the top 5 list dating to the 1950s.  

The snowpack in Utah's mountains has also reached a record high. The snow measuring equipment at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah is actually buried. There's 13.5 feet of snow on the ground at this site. 

The eight to 14 day forecast in Utah calls for greater than equal chances of cooler and drier than normal conditions. 

One caveat to note is the eight to 14 day forecasts aren't alway right. A lot can happen in the atmosphere over the course of a week to make the prediction wrong. 

The 8 to 14 day forecast also leans slightly
toward warmer than average conditions in California

A little bit of warm, dry weather in California is no problem, as the snow gradually begins to melt.  They'll have to watch out for sustained very warm to hot weather that could occur later in April and May which could melt the snow too fast, resulting in flooding. 

For what it's worth, the six to 10 day outlook for Vermont calls for a welcome spate of warmer than normal temperatures with possibly somewhat above normal precipitation. 

The eight to 14 day forecast for Vermont calls for near normal temperatures and rainfall.

Normal temperatures in the April 7-13 time frame in Vermont feature highs of around 50 degrees and lows near the freezing point.