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| My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. |
Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s.
That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!
Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.
There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes.
Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon.
On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50. That makes it probably the warmest morning since May
Clouds and rain, however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow.
Here are the details.
TODAY
The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking.
If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even.
For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday.
The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.
But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning, the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why.
The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine.
In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction.
Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts.
So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy.
The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees.
FRIDAY
This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.
That's what we have coming up.
Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.
WEEKEND
Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s.
EARLY WEEK
It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.
We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.
A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt.
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