Monday Morning Vermont Update: More Rain And Cool Temperatures After Brief Warmup

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center map for tomorrow
depicting where severe thunderstorms are forecast.
Notice the green over northern New England. 
That's a level one out of five alert levels, meaning
they have a risk of isolated, brief severe storms
for us Tuesday afternoon. We'll see if that pans out. 

So much for what was supposed to be our slightly cool but bright and sunny Sunday. 

Instead, a pool of frigid air thousands of feed overhead fueled lots of clouds, held temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 across most of the state.  

Graupel - a sort of sleety, frozen snow -  fell as I tried to help a St. Albans woman with her garden cleanup, and I'm sure it fell elsewhere. 

I'm sure graupel fell along with light, cold rain showers fell elsewhere in the state Sunday. 

At 4 p.m., it was still only 28 degrees atop Mount Mansfield with a wind chill of 15. Lyndonville at the time was only 44 degrees. 

So, March in May. I'm sure there were lots of complaints.

TODAY

This morning, I awoke to wet ground again in St. Albans. My bar is now set so low I was just grateful to find no snow on the ground. 

Some light showers hit early this morning due to a warm front passing by. A weakening band of additional showers in northern New York early this morning should  hold the clouds over northern Vermont through much of the morning and maybe yield a few more light showers. 

At least the sun is supposedly coming out this afternoon. We'll see!  Highs should get up into the low 60s, which would feel fantastic compared to the chill we dealt with over the weekend. 

Tonight should be mild, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. Warmer nights tend to really boost the spring green up. Our hillsides are starting to show a haze of green as trees bud and flower and baby leaves spring into existence. You'll notice a difference by the end of the day tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

Speaking of differences, there's differences of opinion on how stormy tomorrow afternoon will turn. It'll be a mild day, as temperatures will be able to get into the low 70s for many of us on solid southwest winds and some sunshine. 

We know there's a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. But what about thunderstorms?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New England, including all but extreme southern Vermont in a marginal risk (level 1 on a five point scale) of severe thunderstorms 

High humidity is one useful ingredient for severe thunderstorms, and we really won't have that.  Dew points will be in the 40s to around 50.  That doesn't scream severe weather like a humid 60 degree dew point might. 

But, there's strong winds aloft, and the atmosphere several thousand feet up will be quite cold. That could help create enough instability to create towering clouds to produce thunderstorms. 

Forecasters also expect high winds aloft. Thunderstorms can grab that high wind and bring it to the surface. That means an isolated risk of wind damage. Winds will also change direction with height, so the Storm Prediction Center even has a very, very minuscule, but not zero percent chance of a brief spin up tornado in central and northern Vermont.  

Everyone agrees this won't be any king of widespread severe outbreak. Just a risk of isolated trouble. 

However, as the National Weather Service office in Burlington points out, there are factors that could mean there might not be any severe weather at all, and maybe not much in the way of any thunderstorms. 

One is that lack of high humidity. Another reason there might not be big storms is that clouds and even light showers could come in during the early and mid-afternoon. That would stabilize the atmosphere and prevent vigorous thunderstorms. 

So, there you have it.  We'll offer updates tomorrow morning, of course. 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY

National Weather Service prediction map that shows the
amount of rain expected between now and Thursday 
morning. Most of Vermont would get somewhere 
near an inch of rain if this forecast is accurate. 

Everyone seems to agree Tuesday night and Wednesday will be rainy. And colder. Low will drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning and barely make it to 50 Wednesday afternoon amid the cold rain. 

If you're looking for a day to stay inside and get stuff done there, Wednesday' your day. 

Total rainfall right now looks like it will be about an inch, give or take. We could use the soaking, so OK. As always, there could be adjustments to that forecast,

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for a repeat of what we had late last week and this past weekend. Clouds, peeks of sun and an ever-present chance of showers. It's too early to pick out when the showers are most likely. Any rain that does fall should be really light and not amount to too much. 

Like this past weekend, it will be cool. But probably not quite a chilly as this past weekend was. Maybe mid to upper 50s instead of low 50s.  We'll take any improvement we can get. 

The overall weather pattern that has kept most days rather cool in the opening days of May should continue through mid-month. But the pattern looks like it wants to slowly get less intense. So, at least after Wednesday, the chances of seeing a day as brisk and cold as this past Saturday and Sunday are diminishing.