A Cool, Wet Spring In Vermont Kept Gardens Blooming, Frustrated Warm Weather Fans. With Some Exceptions

The cool, wet character of May, 2026 made it a great daffodil
growing month. This photo was taken May 10 in St. 
Albans, Vermont.

I didn't finish our May Vermont climate summary yesterday, so my bad. 

The weather forecast this week is straight forward enough. Sunny with a warming trend through the week, with perhaps some showers late in the week. Summer weather is here .

So let's 'get into what we Vermonters went through during the month of May

 The month of May in Vermont that just ended was definitely on the cool side, and in most places, wet, too.

We didn't break any records with temperatures or precipitation, but it was cooler, cloudier and more damp that we've gotten used to in recent Mays.

COOL MAY

In Burlington, the average temperature was 57.1 degrees, or 1.3 degrees below what is now considered average. As I always mention, average isn't what it used to be.  Nowadays, we compare months to the average of a recent 30 year period. Months in the 20th century were cooler than they are now. 

You can see that in the stats. Out of the past 135 years, this May was the 82 coolest, or 53rd warmest. So by historical standards, May was a little on the warm side.  

Most weather stations in Vermont were about the same degree cooler than the modern average as Burlington. Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were all around one to two degrees on the cool side. Bennington was 2.3 degrees below normal. 

Nineteen days in Burlington were cooler than  normal, but the cold was never extreme. All of the cool days were less than 10 degrees below normal. The month's chill was offset by a brief heat wave that set temperatures soaring to near record heights on May 18-19. The low temperature in Burlington on the 19th was a muggy 71 degrees, a record for the date.

WET MAY

It was a wet month, with rainfall pretty well distributed throughout the month. We never came close to dealing with any flooding issues.  

Burlington had 4.88 inches of rain, which was a little over an inch above normal. It was the 22nd wettest May out of the past 143 years. (The wettest May was in 2013, with 8.74 inches.)

Most other places in Vermont, with the exception of the far south, had a wetter than average May, too. Montpelier had nearly six inches of rain, which was 2.39 inches above average. St. Johnsbury was given a boost by a super soaker of a rainstorm on the 30th. Their month total worked out to 6.46 inches, which was 2.7 inches above average.

Far southern Vermont was drier. Bennington had 2.56 inches of rain, nearly an inch on the dry side.

LOOKING AHEAD

For what it's worth, NOAA's monthly outlook says odds lean fairly heavily toward a warmer than normal June. There's also a somewhat greater than even chance of a dry June, according to NOAA's predictions.

That matches the forecast for the opening week of June, anyway, which will be warm and dry. 

NOAA got May's prediction basicalliy right. They said the month's temperatures would be near to somewhat below normal, and that's true. They also said there were equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. Since most of the state was wet but the south was dry, I'll give it to them.

 

April In Vermont Was Warmer Than Average, Calmer Than Usual (With An Asterisk)

Every April has its wintry setbacks and April, 2026 was
no exception. Here, snow accumulates on forsythias 
on April 19 in St. Albans, but.......

The numbers are in for April''s weather in Vermont and we enjoyed a warmer than average month with near normal precipitation. 

Compared to many past Aprils, this one was pretty easy for most of us. No extreme snows, no statewide wild windstorms. Temperatures were only occasionally out of whack. 

At Burlington, the average temperature was 47.6 degrees, or two degrees above the "new" normal.  I keep calling it that because normal these days is based on the average of 1990-2020. By those years, the effects to climate change had already kicked in, so "averages" are nowadays warmer than what we saw in the 20th century. 

Looking back at 142 years of records in Burlington, by my calculation, it was the 38th warmest April on record. Nothing extreme, but still balmy. 

Other weather stations in Vermont tended to show that April was two to three degrees warmer than average, as well. 

Rainfall in April was about as normal as you can get.  I checked Burlington, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury. Rutland, Woodstock and Bennington, and all of them were with 0.29 inches of the average for the moth. Burlington had 2.95 inches of rain, just 0.12 inches below normal.

While there were days with wide temperature differences across Vermont, we didn't have the extremes we've seen in many recent Aprils. The month's low of 16 degrees in Burlington was the coldest since 2016, But I was able to find 30 Aprils in the past 128 years that had temperatures as cold or colder than that. 

Over in ice box Saranac Lake, New York, it got below zero on April 8. That tied the record for the third latest in the season subzero temperature 

The one moment when weather got volatile in Vermont was during the middle of the month. A weather front pretty much stalled west to east across the middle of the state. Summer-like weather prevailed in southern Vermont while the north stayed relatively cool.

The contrast set up some thunderstorms. One of those storms, a supercell, produced an EF-1 tornado in Williamstown on April 16. The top winds in the brief tornado were 90 mph, which damaged a barn, a house, outbuildings and trees. It was the first Vermont tornado since 2023 and the first April twister on record for the state.  

....the flowers survived and went on to keep blooming
when warmth and sunshine returned later in the month. 

There were also a few reports of golf ball sized hail with that supercell.  Other strong to even severe thunderstorms roamed through southern Vermont on April 14, 15 and 16. 

A sharp, brief cold wave struck on April 20-21, causing some snow to fall. A hard freeze probably damaged some garden plants, but the freeze didn't really interrupt the progress of spring. 

The weather turned dry at the end of the month, which is the worst time of year for that sort of thing. The dry vegetation from last year hadn't greened up yet, and the strong April sun was able to penetrate forest floors because trees hadn't leafed out yet.

At least 15 fires burned around 100 acres in Vermont between April 22 and May 1. That includes a large forest fire in the hills near Ripton that consumed over 50 acres.

MAY OUTLOOK

The April outlook from NOAA before the month started indicated equal chances of warm or cold, and above normal rainfall. It looks like equal chances should  have been applied to precipitation, since rainfall in April was so close to normal.

But to give NOAA another chance, their May outlook calls for temperatures to trend near to slightly cooler than normal for the month. NOAA gives us equal chances of wetter or drier than average month.  

March Was A Solidly Warm Month In Vermont

Paw prints left in the snow from Henry the Weather
 Dog after he took some weather observations on 
March 20 in St. Albans, Vermont. The month 
turned out to be solidly warmer than average.

The weather headlines in the United States was the extraordinary heat that shattered all-time record March highs. 

Vermont was on the outside of all this weather excitement, much cooler than the extreme heat in the South and West. 

Even so, we in Vermont ended up with a March that was solidly warmer than normal. As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 36.4 degrees, a good 4.1 degrees milder than average. It was 19th warmest out of the past 139 years.

As the month opened, we had just been through four consecutive cooler than normal months, and were entering yet another winter cold wave. By the morning of March 2, it was below zero statewide.

But then, that was about it.  The warming trend peaked on March 7-12, when every day was at least 14.4 degrees warmer than normal. 

The heat peaked on March 10. Burlington reached 73 degrees, breaking the date's record high by an impressive 10 degrees. It was also the warmest temperature for so early in the season. Other hot Vermont cities that day include  71 in St. Johnsbury and 74 in Bennington, 

Before the mid-month heat wave, Vermont rivers were locked up in thick ice from a long, cold winter. The sudden warmth led to numerous ice jams in the Green Mountain State, Some of them caused minor flooding. It could have been a lot worse if there had been a lot of rain, but precipitation during the warm spell was light. 

The rest of the month toggled between relative warmth and winter chill, but there never were any particular extremes. 

Winter did return after the heat wave that was centered around March 10. A storm on March 20 had been forecast to dump half a foot of snow on northeastern Vermont, but only a couple inches in the Champlain Valley. 

Instead, nearly five inches of "wet cement" snow came down in just a few hours during the late morning an afternoon. It turned out to probably be the biggest traffic snarler since a similar late day dump of wet snow in November. 

It was a reminder that winter was not over. 

That day's snow (which fell as rain in southern Vermont) was a good shot of some needed precipitation, though. There's drought lingering from last autumn in parts of the state, so a wet spring is actually a good thing this  year. 

The news on the precipitation front in Vermont was sort of meh as rain and melted snow rain just about normal statewide. An exception was in the southwest, where Bennington turned up with a nice 4.36 inches of precipitation, which was 1.71 inches above normal ,

On the hand, Burlington;s precipitation of 2.27 inches was only 0.03 inches above average,  That was just the 68th wettest March out of the past 144 years. 

APRIL OUTLOOK

The month has begun with its usual schizophrenic attitude, with rapidly changing temperatures, and weather. 

Overall, NOAA expects most of the the U.S. to be warmer than normal in April. An exception is the Great Lakes a New England area a tossup: It'll end up either warmer or colder than normal, out somewhere near average. Precipitation would be above normal if NOAA's forecast is accurate. 

Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.

The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

You Betcha! Vermont December Was A Chilly One: 2nd Coldest Of This Century So Far

Henry the Weather Dog spent a good part of New Year's
Eve day wrapped in blankets and pleading for warmer
weather after the second coldest December in the 
past 25 years. If long range forecasts are correct,
Henry is going to be disappointed. 

EDITORS NOTE: I'm starting the first morning of the New Year with a look back at December.  A rundown of the entire year of 2025 is coming in a post later today. For now, let's take a not-so-nostalgic look back at December 2025. 

If you felt like we had an old fashioned type of December in Vermont, you're absolutely right. 

In Burlington, it was the second coldest December in the past 25 years. Only December. 2017 was a smidge chillier than the month we just ended.

But in our climate-changed world, December, 2025 wasn't all that cold compared to many years in the 20th century. 

In Burlington, by my reckoning, it was just tied for 48th coldest out of the past 135 years. In other words, it was just a slightly chilly but unremarkably cold month. 

The climate change-influenced "new normal" compares this month to the average of years between 1990 and 2020. By that standard, December 2025 was right around five degrees colder than "normal" statewide. 

Nights were colder compared to average than daytime highs. Daily low temperatures last month were six to seven degrees cooler than the "new" average across the state. Daytime highs were between 3.5 and 4.5 chillier than that average. 

In terms of precipitation, I'll give you an oxymoron: It was the most extremely normal month I can remember. 

I say that because total rain and melted snow were almost exactly average for December in the reporting stations I looked at. Precipitation was around three inches, give or take. 

Burlington was just a third of an inch wetter than average. Montpelier was less than a quarter inch on the dry side. Bennington was about a tenth of an inch on the wet side. Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were all within 0.06 inches of normal. 

It's really remarkable that rain and melted snow in the whole state was that close to normal. 

Moderate to locally severe drought continues in northeastern Vermont, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. It's been that way for weeks. I don't think it's as dire as it looks. The ground is largely frozen, so water isn't seeping in yet. A lot of precipitation lately has been in the form of snow. That's just banked up moisture for the spring.

Unless the rest of the winter is remarkably dry, I think you'll see the lingering drought easing up during the spring. 

Snowfall was somewhat above normal statewide. I noticed Burlington, Rutland and St. Johnsbury, to take some examples, were about five inches on the plus side for snow. 

If your hat kept blowing off during December, there's a good reason for that. Especially in the Champlain Valley. In Burlington, 21 days out of the month had gusts to 30 mph or greater. Eight of those days gusted to 40 mph or more. 

Periodic local power outages were the theme of the month.

We only had two big storms during the month, both in the second half of the month. 

On December 19, we had a brief break in the cold as a powerful storm passed by to our west. Burlington soared to 63 degrees, shattering the old record for the date, which was 49 degrees. Strong winds blasted through Vermont during the storm. As many as 20 percent of Vermont households and businesses lost power at various points in that storm. 

Another storm on December 29 dumped a bunch of freezing rain on much of the state.  Power was again cut to thousands of homes and businesses. Police agencies throughout the state dealt with hundreds of car crashes and spinouts on icy roads and highways. 

LOOKING AHEAD

January is beginning as December left off. It's cold out there. 

Most of the snow from last night was finished as of mid-morning today. We have a frigid several days to look forward to. 

Temperatures in the teens this morning will fall into the single numbers by this afternoon.  A stinging northwest wind will make it feel worse. Pretty much everyone in the Green Mountain State will see the,peratures below zero overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

Each day through next Monday will feature highs in the chilly teens and lows within a few degrees either side of zero. There are signs we might see something of a warmup toward the middle and end of next week. We're not sure how big that warmup might be or whether it will last more than a couple days. 

There are no large or even mid-sized storms in sight for the next several days. The next chance of even a somewhat noticeable storm isn't due until maybe next Wednesday. And so far, even that potential storm looks kind of underwhelming. 

Longer range forecasts can be unreliable. But the NOAA is predicting an overall January weather pattern almost identical to the one we had in December. That means - if this forecast is accurate - we'll have another colder than normal January, possibly even well below normal. NOAA has equal chances of us seeing above or below normal precipitation. 

November Global Temperatures Were 3rd Warmest On Record

November, 2025 was the world's third warmest on
record. As usual, it was hard to find the few
cooler than normal areas (in blue)

 Continuing a trend that started half a year ago, the world had its third warmest November on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

 This was the sixth month in a row that the world had a third warmest month, in each case just behind 2023 and 2024. 

The warmest places relative to normal were in the Arctic, most of the Northern Hemisphere land areas, eastern Antarctica, southern Africa and eastern Europe. 

As always in this age of climate change, November cool spots were hard to find. Those few relatively chilly areas included northeastern Russia, parts of the central an eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, bits and pieces of Australia, and a persistent cold blob south of Greenland. 

We do the following every month to show how entrenched climate change has become: If you under age 49 you have never seen a month that globally was even a tiny bit cooler than the 20th century average. 

Depending upon how the December figures come out, 2025 will either be the third hottest year on record, to it will tie with 2023 as second hottest. Last year was the globe's hottest since people starting keeping reliable records in the 1850. 

The warm November contributed to a year that's messing with a key climate goal the United Nations set nearly a decade ago. 

The UN in 2016 adopted a legally binding compact -- the Paris Agreement -- that aims to keep global temperatures no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 20th century agreement.

As Yale Climate Connections reports, it looks the warmth of this year will mean the three-year average temperature, 2023 -2025 will end up warmer 1.5 degree Celsius. 

Does that mean the Paris Agreement is violated? Depends on who you ask, because nobody really defined the parameter of what 1.5 degrees mean in the real world. But my opinion, yes. 

The World Meteorological Organization's 2024 State of the Global Climate Report states that they've convened a panel of experts to determine how exceeding the 1.5 degrees would be defined and tracked. 

We probably will have a few more years that average less than 1.5 degrees below the 20th century average, but they will become  increasingly rare.

Elsewhere, climatologists also like to keep an eye on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, as those are a key indicator of the planet's climate health. 

The news from the top and bottom of the world was not good. Arctic sea ice in November was the second lowest on record for this time of year. Once we got into December, Arctic sea ice ran neck and neck with 2016 as the least on record. 

Antarctica sea ice was the fourth lowest on record, at least since satellites started keeping track of it in 1978. Only 2016, 2023 and 2024 had less ice way down under. 

UNITED STATES

November in the Lower 48 of the United States was the fourth warmest on record. 

November in the Lower 48 of the U.S was the
fourth warmest on record States in darkest 
red had their warmest on record November. 

The warmth was especially strong in the western United States. Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and Utah had their hottest November on record. Utah shattered the record by more than a degree, which is a really impressive

New Mexico had its second warmest November. Colorado, Oklahoma and Wyoming each had their third warmest November. 

When the western part of the nation is warm, more often than not, the eastern part is cool. That was true in November, 2025. But the eastern chill was not nearly as extreme as the western balminess. 

The state-by-state rankings go back 131 years. The "coldest" state in the rankings, was New York, which had its 67th warmest, (or 64th coolest) November on record. Here in Vermont, we had our 62nd warmest November out of the past 131. So pretty much in the middle of the pack.  

The Lower 48 had its 26th driest November out of the past 131 years. Dry weather was well distributed around the nation, but the southeast corner of the U.S. was especially arid. South Carolina had its second driest November, and in Florida, it was third driest. 

Only three states - Arizona, California and South Dakota were noticeably wetter than average, but were not nearly soggy enough to threaten any records. 

Meteorological autumn- September 1 through November 30, was the third warmest on record in the Lower 48. This autumn, all states in the Lower 48 except the Carolinas were at least 1 degree warmer than the 20th century average. 

Seven states - Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah and Washington - had their warmest autumn on record.  Remarkably, everyone west of the Mississippi Rivet had one of their top 10 warmest autumn on record. All those states except California had one of their top five hottest falls. (California only had its tenth warmest. 

For the record, Vermont overall had its 23rd warmest autumn out of the past 131 years.  

November In Vermont Was Cold, Gloomy, But Historically, It Was Actually Kinda Average

A gloomy sky over St. Albans, Vermont on November 6.
The month was chilly by modern standards, but kind
of middle of the road by 20th century comparisons. 

 The final climate totals are in for the Vermont November, 2025 and it paints a chilly picture. But it was only chilly compared to recent years, not the pre-climate change 20th century average. 

The average temperature in Burlington for November was 37.3 degrees, or three degrees chillier than what is considered normal.

 Remember, this is the new, warmer normal, influenced by climate change. Had the same November weather occurred a generation or two ago, it wouldn't have been considered all that cold. 

Out of the past 134 years, this November was pretty much right in the middle of the pack in terms of temperatures. 

Seventy Novembers were as chillier or chillier than 2025 and 64 of them were warmer.  From a historical perspective, and from the perspective of your parents or grandparents, it was actually a pretty normal November. 

Other weather stations in Vermont were also about a degree or two colder than the average of the past 30 years, but more or less in line with historical averages. 

Precipitation was close to normal, too. Burlington had 2.87 inches of rain in November, just 0.17 inches above normal. That made it the 53rd wettest out of the past 134 years. Nothing extreme there. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rain and melted snow came out more or less average, trending slightly on wet side west, and a little drier east. 

Temperatures were strangely consistent in November. The month can feature almost summer like warmth near 70 in the early part of the month, and then hitting bitterly cols, wintry lows near the end. 

There are some wacky extremes in the history of November. In 1938 the highest temperature for the month in Burlington was 74 and the low as 3 below. In November, 1996, temperatures ranged from 74 to 9. As recently as 2022, we had a November with a high of 76, an all-time record for the month, with a low of 15 toward the end of that month. 

November, 2025 in Burlington ranged between 58 and 21. I've seen a few individual days with that kind of range, never mind a whole month.  Digging further, I've found that only six Novembers had a low as warm or warmer than 21 degrees. Usually, the low for the month is in the upper single numbers and teens. 

On the opposite end, only 25 Novembers, have had highs as cool or cooler than this year. Additionally, if you love statistical quirks, the lowest high temperature this month was 34 degrees. Only 11 Novembers had a "lowest high" that warm or warmer. 

Snowfall, by the way, was heavy, at least in the north. Burlington's snowfall was only 2.1 inches above normal, and St Johnsbury's was 2.9 inches on the heavy side. 

As the month closed, there was still a healthy 10 inches of snow on the ground in Westfield and eight inches in Montgomery. Most towns in Vermont had no snow cover or just a few inches. 

But the Green Mountains killed it in terms of snow, especially the central and northern mountains. 

Jay Peak reported an incredible 119 inches of snow during November, obviously their snowiest on record.  On a few days during November, Mount Mansfield set records for the deepest snow for the date. On the final day of the month, there was 40 inches on the ground near the top of Mount Mansfield, the second highest for the date.

LOOKING AHEAD

Incredibly, each of the past four years in Burlington were among the top ten warmest on record. It looks like 2025 might finally break that streak. 

If December temperatures this year come out around the "new normal" of 28.2 degrees, 2025 would  once again be in the top 10 list of warmest years. 

But early indications are this December has a better than even chance of being solidly on the cold side. No guarantees of course. Long range forecasts are notoriously tricky.  But we are entrenched in a shivery weather pattern that shows little sign of breaking. 

We have a decent chance of seeing the coldest December in a quarter century, but that would be nowhere near the coldest on record. That honor goes to December, 1989, that awful month that featured an average temperature of 7.5 degrees which was 20.7 degrees colder than our current "new normal." December, 1989 also featured 19 days in Burlington that got below zero.

I'm quite sure that December, 1989 cold record is safe, despite this year's chilly forecast. 

Vermont October Was Warm, And Surprisingly Wet. Maybe The First Hints Of Drought Relief?

Very low water levels on Lake Champlain, seen here in
Milton, Vermont during a record late season
heat wave on October 6

November is here, so it's time to look back on an October weather.

The month brought more warmth to Vermont, and also provided the first hopeful signs that a few cracks might be forming in our deep, relentless drought. 

October in Vermont had its extremes, and a rainy end made the month actually turn out to be on the wet side. That's a trend we hope we will continue for the next few months.  

 The drought appeared to peak during an early month heat wave that shattered record highs. A rainstorm just after that heat wave offered a hint of wetter times ahead. 

We had to wait until the final 11 days of the month for the skies to finally open up. 

The rainfall was uneven, focusing on northwest Vermont, while cheating other parts of the state out of the heaviest downpours. Here in St. Albans, 6.76 inches of rain came down in those 11 days. In Burlington, those 11 days featured 4.55 inches. 

For the month as a whole, Burlington had 6.27 inches of rain, which surprisingly makes this past month the fourth wettest October on record in Burlington. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, rainfall wasn't nearly as heavy in Burlington, but it was least everybody got some rain.  Most weather stations in the state had October rainfall just slightly above normal, with most reports coming in at 3.8 to 4.5 inches. 

Such rainfall is, of course, not enough to emerge from a deep drought. We'll watch anxiously for any heavy rain or even big snowstorms we can get our hands on.  

WARMTH

October was yet another warm month in Vermont, punctuated by an extreme late season heat wave on October 4-7.  Burlington tied its all time high for October with a high of 86 degrees. Montpelier tied its October record at 84 degrees. 

We were on the edge of an incredible October heat wave in southeast Canada that shattered monthly record highs by wide margins. 

All those 80s have been adding up in our age of climate change. In Burlington, 76 days this year got to 80 degrees or more,  Only five other years out of the past 130 have had more 80 degree days in a single year. Four of those years were since 2016. 

Storm clouds gather over South Burlington, Vermont
on October 20, signaling a welcome wet stretch
to close out the month. 

After that early October heat wave, the rest of the month featured no more extreme temperatures, but it remained consistently mild. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 52.9 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees above the climate-change influenced "new normal."

That "new normal" is the average of the years 1990-2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average, due to climate change.  

October, 2025 in Burlington was tied with 2012 as the 12th warmest on record. In general, most other weather stations in Vermont were also very roughly two degrees warmer than average for October. 

For only the seventh time since the 1880s, this October in Burlington had no days with a high temperature colder than 50 degrees. 

Unlike some Octobers, absolutely no snow fell in the state except in the highest elevations. That is until late last night.  Even before midnight switched the calendar to November, some places above 1,500 were snowing. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The outlook heading into November is mixed. 

Long range forecasts, always a bit of a crapshoot, predict near to above normal temperatures for November. The ever-important precipitation outlooks is a tossup, with mostly equal chances of above or below normal rain and snowfall. 

Despite the nice, wet end of October, we still need many drenching rainstorms to fully emerge from our tough drought.  

There's a little rain and mountain snowfall in the Vermont forecast, but nothing big enough to rock our world. 

A Beautiful September In Vermont Makes Drought Worse; Climate Data Is In

Despite a couple rain storms, precipitation was once
again below normal in September, so the drought
worsened. Pictured is low Lake Champlain water
as seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont Sept. 22.

If it weren't for the drought, September was a beautiful weather month in Vermont. Lots of sunny days, comfortable temperatures, all great for outdoor activity. 

Unless of course you were trying to save your wilted garden, or watch the leaves on your trees turn brow and curled and fall off ahead of foliage season. 

This kind of weather stayed consistent all month.

PRECIPITATION 

September was a dry month in Vermont, but not as dry as you'd might think, given how the drought kept getting worse.  

The drought worsened in large part because any rain we did get fell in two short bursts, one around September 5-6 and the other mostly from September 24-25. The rest of the month was bone dry. 

Although September is usually a relatively sunny, pleasant month in Vermont, we almost always get a few periods of gray, drizzly weather that can last nearly a week. Those kinds of conditions prevent things from drying out too fast. 

This year, September instead featured day after day of sunny skies

Burlington had 2.89 inches of rain, which was about three quarters of an inch below normal. Most of northern Vermont was about an inch on the dry side. Which means it wasn't among the driest on record, which was a nice change from August. But still we needed more rain than we got.  

Southwest Vermont was drier. Rutland received about two inches of rain during the month, which was 1.36 inches below normal. Bennington was worse, receiving just 1.37 inches of rain  during September. That was about 2.5 inches on the light side. 

Woodstock in the southeast was actually a tad wetter than normal in September with 3.9 inches. However, all except a third of an inch of that came on September 24-26. 

A new weekly Drought Monitor report is due out tomorrow. That one will take into account the rain last week. However, most observers do not expect much improvement in the drought conditions, 

TEMPERATURES 

The overall mean temperature in Burlington was 64.1 degrees, or 1.4 degrees warmer than normal.  That doesn't sound like it was all that much on the toasty side, but remember, as I remind you every month, is the "new normal."

It's based on the average of temperatures from 1990 to 2020, a time at which climate change had already  made things warmer than then were in the 20th century. 

As it was, September, 2025 was tied for the tenth warmest on record in Burlington. That's part of a trend. There are 15 Septembers in the top 10 list of hottest Septembers in Burlington. Including this year  nine of the top 15 warmest have happened since 2011. 

There weren't really any extremes in September. We saw no record highs or record lows to speak of. Just steady warm nights and somewhat chilly nights. 

That's where that weirdness comes in 

The drought also helped make September temperatures a bit odd: Daily high temperatures were much warmer than normal, and daily low temperatures were near or even a little cooler than normal.

That's because on so many days, the air was unusually dry, the humidity was low. On such days, the sun heats up the air more than when it's humid. But muggy nights stay warm, while the temperature craters on drier nights. 

That's what kept happening in September. In Burlington, the average high temperature or 75.2 degrees was 2.6 degrees, but the average low temperature of 53 was just 0.1 degrees above normal -basically average under the "new normal."

In St. Johnsbury and Rutland, the daily low temperature in September was more than a degree cooler than normal, though highs in both towns were three to four degrees on the warm side. 

There were no truly cool days like we normally get in September. The coldest high temperature of the month this September was 63 degrees.  I could only find one other year with a warmer "coldest" day. That was 64 degrees in 2023.

Interestingly over the past decade, the coldest September high temperature in Burlington was at or above 60 degrees on seven out of ten years. But such days were rare before that. Between 1900 and 2002, all Septembers except two had days with highs in the 50s. Or even 40s in some years. 

I say this every month, as well, but I'll say it again: This is not your grandfather's Vermont climate, that's for sure. 

As noted in this morning's post, October is getting off to a relatively brisk start, but the overall warm trend will return within a couple days. It looks like it might stay generally warm through most of the first half of October. We shall see! 

The really bad news is it looks like it will stay drier than normal through at least the first half of October, too. The drought won't be going anywhere. 

August In Vermont Was Super Dry (Most Places) And Otherwise Kind Of Weather Weird

Very low water levels in the Missisquoi River in 
Enosburgh Falls due to what in many parts of
Vermont were a record or near record dry August. 

You're not going to be the least bit surprised at the following fact now that August is over.

That month was exceptionally, in some cases record dry in Vermont. Montpelier only managed 0.62 inches of rain in August. 

In most Augusts, that amount would fall in a single, hour-long thunderstorm. Normal rainfall for August is 3.81.   

Rutland was even worse, with a preliminary total of just 0.48 inches, against a normal of nearly four inches.s St. Johnsbury only had a bit under an inch of rain.

There were some slight exceptions to the August extreme dryness rule. Burlington had 1.66 inches of rain, which is below normal by 1.88 inches, thanks to a fairly wet final week of the month. This ends up being Burlington's 15th driest August. 

A more pronounced isolated wet spot was Woodstock, which received at least 2.62 inches of rain in August, thanks to well-placed, localized, heavy thunderstorms on August 7 and 14.

I say at least 2.62 inches because data is missing from Woodstock on August 25, and it might have rained that day. Which leads to this editor's note: 

I noticed this morning there were more gaps and delays than usual in August climate information on the National Weather Service page.  I'm unsure whether that's because of cutbacks in staffing at the National Weather Service due to those odious DOGE cuts from the Trump administration, or because today is a holiday or it was just a bad month. 

In the cases of the missing data, I was either able to find the information elsewhere to fill in the gaps, or I just had to give up on highlighting information or drawing conclusions. 

Anyway, going on with Vermont's August weather:

TEMPERATURES

Average temperatures for August, 2025 in Vermont were a little below what is now considered "normal."   Of course, I have to remind you again this is the "new normal." based on the average temperatures from 1990 to 2020. 

This "new normal" is balmier than the 20th century average. So a slightly cooler than average August nowadays would have been a normal or even slightly warmer than normal August had it happened a half century ago.

In fact, despite this August being allegedly "cool" it was still a tie for 30th warmest August out of the past 126 years in Burlington. 

Looking more closely at August temperatures, we find an oddity: Average high temperatures were above normal, but overnight lows were even further below this new normal. 

It's what you'd expect in a dry month. The dry ground allows the daytime sun to really heat the atmosphere instead of focusing on evaporation, so the daytimes are hotter. Nighttimes are cooler during dry spells. If the ground had been wet, that added humidity would have kept temperatures from falling as much as they did. 

This warm highs/chiller lows pattern we saw this August bucks a climate change trend.  Nights have generally been getting warmer faster than daytimes, so this past month was an exception. 

That high temperatures were so warm in August were boosted by a weird heat wave on August 9-12.  Temperatures reached as high as 98 degrees in Burlington on August 12. The heat was accompanied by unusually dry air. 

The weird heat wave is what really started our flash drought in August. 

SUMMER 

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 through August 31, so for climatologists, summer ended last night at midnight. 

Despite the allegedly "cool" August that really was not chilly, Burlington had the seventh warmest summer on record. 

Due to ties, there are actually 14 summers in Burlington's top ten list of warmest summers on record. With this summer added, nine of the top 14 hottest summers have occurred since 2005, and five of them have occurred since 2020.  

So yes, most summers nowadays are way different from the way they were decades ago. 

AUTUMN OUTLOOK

Meteorological autumn runs from September 1 through November 30.  NOAA is saying that above normal temperatures will continue though this new season. In fact, the best chances of higher than average temperatures during the fall in the United States would be in the Southwest and New England. 

Seasonal forecasts aren't alway correct, but NOAA did say last spring that our just ended summer would be very warm, and they were absolutely right. 

The autumn seasonal outlook doesn't help much with our precipitation, which we really need. NOAA just gives us equal chances of above or below normal rainfall between now and the end of November. 

In the short term, the first half of September does look mostly cooler than average, though that doesn't mean the overall warm forecast is wrong. Two weeks out of a season don't make much of a difference.e 

Today through Thursday, and maybe Friday will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures, but it should cool down for at least a few days after that. 

After that, who knows what will happen the rest of the autumn. Watch this space.  

The 2025 Trend Continues: July Was World's 3rd Warmest

Once again in July, 2025, it was hard to find places
that were cooler than the longtime 20th century
average. Parts of Antarctica and few other
small isolated places were cool, that's it. 

 July, 2025 followed a familiar climate trend we've seen so far this year: It was the third warmest on record, just behind the boffo hot summers of 2023 and 2024 across the world. 

This according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

Julys figures are in line with recent months, most of which were the third warmest on record. 

The data is yet another piece added to the mountain of evidence that climate change has transformed the world and might be accelerating. 

By the way, all ten of the world's hottest Julys have happened since 2016. It was the 49th consecutive July with above average temperature. It shows the climate has been changing mostly due to human influence for at least a half century. 

In July, 2025, the hottest spots relative to average included northwestern Europe, most of China along with Japan and the Koreas; northern Africa, most of the northern Pacific Ocean, the Caribbean and much of eastern Nort America. 

As we've consistently seen in recent years, cool spots were hard to find in July, 2025 but they were there. This time, we could find chilly areas relative to the long term average in parts of Antarctica, western Australia, parts of  India, central South America, a relatively small area in central North America straddling the U.S. Canadian border and a piece of the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and east of Labrador. 

This year through July is still ranking as the second hottest on record, behind last year. NOAA gives this year a 99 percent chance of being among the top five warmest on record, but only a 1 percent chance of being the absolute warmest.  The record for world's hottest year in 2024 looks safe. For now. 

UNITED STATES

Most of the United States heat in July was 
concentrated in the eastern third of the nation. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its 19th hottest out of the past 131 Julys in the National Centers for Environmental Information data base.  

Two states - West Virginia and Virginia - had their hottest July on record this year. Nineteen other states, including Vermont had one of their top ten hottest Julys.  

The interesting thing was the warmth was driven largely by very warm overnight temperatures. 

The nation had its fifth warmest average July low temperatures. Twelve states had the warmest July daily low temperatures on record.  The United States had its 33 wettest July out of the past 131 years. 

Nights have generally been warming faster than daytimes. Increased humidity  helps hold nighttime temperatures up. Since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, this all makes sense. 

The Plains states and California were relatively cool, but not among the coolest on record. For instance, North Dakota had their 58th coldest and Texas had their 60th chilliest July.  In other words, something akin to what the mid-20th was like, before climate change really took hold. 

The United States had its 33rd wettest year. But rainfall really varied from place to place. New England was dry, a hint of a drought that began hitting the region in earnest this month. New Hampshire had its 7th driest July, and in Maine it was 8th driest. (Vermont was 27th driest).

Elsewhere, Utah had its second driest July and Alabama had its 6th driest.

Some places, by contrast, were pretty wet. Amid its hottest July, Virginia also had its fifth wettest July, so the humidity must have been miserable. The Midwest was generally wet, with Iowa logging its second soggiest July of the past 131 years. 

To confirm that this year has been the summer of flash floods, the National Weather Service issued a total of 1,434 flash flood warnings this July, the second highest July total in 40 years. There were 17 flash flood emergencies issues, along with more than 2,000 preliminary flood related storm reports.  

World Had Third Hottest June As Climate Change Rolls On

The world was hot again. June, 2025 was the third
hottest on record. Only 2023 and 2024 were warmer, 

Predictably,  June turned out to be the world's third warmest on record, says the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

In a logical world, this shouldn't be happening. Month after month has scored in the top three list of hottest global months, with only a handful of exceptions. 

Climate change rolls on. Thus, this post will seem a bit familiar to past monthly summaries. But remember, essentially, the more things stay the same, the worse they get for Planet Earth. 

After month after month of all time record warmth in 2023 and 2024, we've settled  back into a pattern where most months are the second or third hottest on record.   

I suppose we should be a tiny bit happy, because if you look super closely, there were some minor hints of a temporary cooling trend in June.  Even if those hints are just clutching at straws, 

 June, 2025 was the first month since May, 2023 where the global temperature was a it less 1.0 degrees  Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) warmer than the 20th century average. 

The temperature anomaly for land ares as the smallest since December, 2022, which isn't really a long time in the grand scheme of things 

 However, oceans were still running super hot, which skewed Earth's overall temperature

Even though June was "cool" compared to 2023 and 2024 it was still solidly hot. All ten of the warmest Junes have occurred since 2016 and last moth was the 49th June in a row with above average global temperatures. 

As usual, cool spots - areas that were as cold or a little cooler than the long term average, were few and far between. Those "cool" spots included a small spot in the North Atlantic and a couple little comers of Greenland, India, parts of northern Africa, central Antarctica. 

The hottest spots, relative to average, were in northern and eastern North America, parts of western Europe, sections of eastern Asia and the western Pacific ocean.

Many areas had some intense heat waves during the second half of the month.

On June 28, El Granado Spain reached  114.8 degrees  the hottest temperature on record for  the entire nation of Spain was registered. (The old record was 113.4 degrees in Seville, back in 1965).

From June 19 through the end of month, daily highs in much of France were 95 degrees or better, with several cities setting records for the number of days getting that warm in a single month. 

Seven weather stations around the world with a period of record at least 40 years set new all time record high temperatures. Five were in Russia. The other two were Yongde, China (91 degrees) and Lebanon, New Hampshire (100 degrees). 

Sea ice is also important to look at every month. The more Arctic and Antarctica ice you have, the more that white ice reflects the sun's heat into space, which could help blunt climate change a tiny bit. However, Arctic sea ice was the second lowest of any year since they started keeping track 47 years ago. Antarctic sea ice was the third lowest.

UNITED STATES

The  United States had its seventh hottest 
June on record. Some states in the Northeast
including Vermont, had their hottest June
temperature on record on June 24

June turned out to be the seventh warmest on record for the Lower 48. It's part of a trend, which isn't surprising in the age of climate change. Six of the nation's seven hottest Junes have all occurred since 2015, notes Yale Climate Connections. 

The hottest temperatures in the U.S. relative to average were on the West Coast and the the Mid-Atlantic States and interior Northeast.  Seventeen states had one of their top ten warmest Junes on record. 

Continuing a climate change trend, nights were generally warmer relative to average than daytimes. Connecticut and Rhode Island both had their warmest June average daily minimum temperature on record, and seven other states scored in the top three in that category.

The June warmth in the eastern U.S was skewed by an extreme heat wave on June 23-25, which was especially notable since the biggest heat waves usually don't hit until you're into July and August. 

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont broke their statewide records for hottest temperature on record for the entire month of June. Maryland and New Hampshire tied their monthly records. 

June in the U.S. was on the wet side, given how it was the start of our Summer of Floods. The Plains, Midwest, western Appalachians, most of the South and much of the southwestern U.S. was wetter than average.  

The West Coast was definitely dry. Florida and most of New England were also sort of on the dry side, but not to an extreme level.  

Vermont February Was Snowy, Stormy, Still Not Historically Wildly Out Of Whack

A snow squall cuts visibility in St. Albans to near zero
on February 7.  This year brought Vermont one of the 
snowier Februaries on record. 

 The February climate data is in for Vermont, and as you've probably already guessed, we had a true winter month for a change. 

Even so, it wasn't really that out of the ordinary compared to past Februarys in the state.

Temperatures.

We were pretty consistent statewide, with pretty much all weather stations running between about 1.5 to 2 degrees cooler than normal, give or take. 

Remember, though, "normal" is the new normal. It's based on the average of the years 1990 to 2020. Those years were already warmer than the 20th century average, thanks to climate change.

Based on this "new normal," February, 2025 in Burlington came in at 1.7 degrees chillier than average. But had this exact same month occurred in the 1960s or 1970s, it would have been regarded as slightly warmer than average. 

Still, the month just ended was Burlington's coldest February in a decade.  

Temperatures never went to extremes at any time in February, really. February temperatures historically in Burlington have ranged as high as 72 degrees (in 2017) to as low as minus 30 (in 1979).

This year, the highest it ever got in Burlington was 47 and the lowest was 8 below.  No daily record high or low temperatures were set. 

Climate change has made daily record highs in Burlington generally more frequent. But we haven't had a record high since December 30. I wonder if we're overdue for that. 

Snow

It took a lot of shoveling to keep up with the snow in
Vermont during February, 2025

As you might have noticed, we definitely had a snowy month. Burlington accumulated a total of 33.2 inches in February, making it the fifth snowiest February on record. (Top spot goes to the very snowy year of 2011, when 43.1 inches of snow fell in February). 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield reached 98 inches by February 27 and 28. That's far above the average depth of 65 inches there for late February. 

I hope all this snow gave a boost to Vermont's economy. There were no thaws in Vermont to the very end of the month, and even then, temperatures weren't that hot.  Which means snow conditions for all kinds of winter sports were primo. 

Even though February was snowy, low elevations have not had a particular snowy winter. Burlington through February 28 has had 64.4 inches of snow since the first flurries came in November. That's jus slightly below the average for this date of 65.

Melted Precipitation

With all that snow, the water equivalent of the frozen precipitation and any rain that fell was above normal for February across Vermont.  That's a good thing, since most of the state still has a few lingering effects from last autumn's drought. All this snow melting in the spring will help with replenishing ground water. 

Burlington had 2.58 inches of rain and melted snow in February, which is a little over three quarters of an inch above normal. By my count, this February was Burlington's 21st wettest out of the past 141 years. 

Most everyone else in Vermont had about the same amount of precipitation as Burlington, except of course in the mountains, which had more. Most Vermont weather stations had about a half to two thirds of an inch more precipitation than average.

Looking Ahead.

More than perhaps any other month, March is a weather wildcard in Vermont. Early indications are this month will be no exception. 

We woke up this morning in much of the state with a little new snow on the ground, which is starting to melt as temperatures briefly rise above freezing. Then, temperatures will horrible crash starting this afternoon and continuing into Monday morning. 

After some below zero temperatures Sunday and Monday morning, it looks like we'll warm up to thawing and rain by midweek. From there, I imagine we'll have the kind of roller coaster we almost always have in March: One day wintry, the next springlike then back to winter.

November Was Yet Another Warm Vermont Month In An Incredibly Warm Year So Far

The first day of November opened with a sky that
sort of suggested summer and some leaves still on
trees during this near record warm autumn

 As always, we flip the calendar to a new month, so we have the climate stats for the past month, which took us through November.  

It was another warm month. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 42.0 degrees. That barely put us in the top 10 list of warmest Novembers. We tied for 10th place on the list with 1975 and 1896.

Incredibly, that means eight months this year were among the top ten warmest on record. All four seasons in 2024 also scored in the top five warmest. 

You'd think that 2024 is a shoo-in for warmest year on record, which will beat the mark set just last year. However, it appears we're gearing up for a remarkably cold December, which might spoil that record. More on that in a bit.

Temperatures

Depending on where you were in Vermont, the month came out anywhere between about 2.5 and 4.5 degrees warmer than average. 

 No surprise, the warmth of November was statewide and consistent. The warmth was punctuated by two heat bursts in the first week of the month. Temperatures climbed as high as 80 degrees in Woodstock. That's only the second time I'm aware of that it reached 80 somewhere in Vermont during November. The other occasion was during a hot spell in 1950 that brought the temperature up to 81 degrees in Bellows Falls. 

It can get below zero across the state in November, but the coldest readings of the month were mostly in the teens above zero, with some places  not dipping below the 20s. 

Burlington's low for the month was a very mild 24 degrees. (That's a full nine degrees warmer than the coldest reading ever in October, never mind November.  Also in Burlington, every day got at least a little above freezing, a rarity for November. 

Only nine days during November in Burlington were regarded as cooler than normal. And remember, this is the "new normal" based on the average of the past 30 years, when climate change had already skewed weather records.  

Precipitation

The only snow of note in November came in the final
days of the month. Most of the time, it was too 
warm for snow. 

With all the talk of drought establishing itself in Vermont, November could have been worse. It was drier than normal statewide, but storms during the final ten days of the month helped a little. 

Soil conditions are still too dry, and we could use a wet winter and spring, but so far, we're mostly hanging in there. 

Most places in Vermont usually get between about 2.5 and three inches of rain and melted snow during a typical November. This year, we were short by about an inch. 

Burlington clocked in with 1.64 inches of November rain and snow. By my count, that was the 25th driest November out of the past 131 years of reliable records in Burlington.  

Southern Vermont had the worst trouble with a lack of rain early in the month. Drought officially took hold there, and rare for the season brush and forest fires vexed that section of the state well into mid-month. 

Recent rains and snows have finally erased that threat. 

Snowfall was light, with most places not seeing any real snow until Thanksgiving. The Champlain Valley missed out on that storm. Burlington only had 0.1 inches of snow in November, tying with 2004 as the second least snowiest November. (Least snowy, totally a trace is a five way tie).

The Thanksgiving storm left a few high elevations in southern and central Vermont with more snow than  normal for November, an exception to the low-snow rule for the month. 

Autumn, 2024

Meteorological autumn, defined as the period between September 1 and November 30, was the second warmest on record in Burlington. The average temperature for the three months was 53.6 degrees. Only the autumn of 2017 was warmer.   

After a remarkably warm year so far, the first half of
December in our neck of the woods is forecast
to be much colder than we're used to. 

We had such a warm autumn mostly because of the consistency of the warmth rather than many long record hot spells. September was Burlington fourth warmest; October was ninth warmest, and as mentioned November was ties for 10th warmest.

Seven of the ten warmest autumns in Burlington have occurred since 2011.

Incredibly, as I alluded to, each season in Burlington in 2024 was among the warmest seen since they started keeping track of these things back in the 1880s. 

Winter 2023-24 was the warmest, spring, 2024 was tied for second warmest, summer was third warmest, and autumn came in second. 

Makes you wonder if global warming is altering the kind of climate we're used to, huh?  Although, we might just have coming up what has become a rare interruption in our warming Green Mountain State surroundings. 

Long Warmth Ending

Arguably, I can't remember any extended periods of cold than normal weather in Vermont since late autumn and early winter of 2019. (We have had brief excursions into record or near record cold since them, but those have only lasted a few days at most).

Forecasters and long range models are consistent in suggesting we could be about to have a December unlike anything we've seen in at least a quarter century. No guarantees on that, but it's possible.

Most Decembers have been normal to warm over the past few decades, but a persistent weather pattern seems to be setting up that would keep blasts of Arctic air coming at us. We almost guarantee the first half of December will be noticeably colder than normal, with some days being really cold. 

The signals are mixed on what would happen in the second half of December. But if it stays cold, 2023 might well end up keeping its position as Burlington's hottest year. 

The chilly December race is on! 

It Goes On And On; Global, U.S. October Continues Climate Change Meltdown

 As we do every month, we check out the data NOAA provides to find out how the U.S. and the world did with their weather and climate the previous month. 

Another very red global monthly climate map as
October was the world's second warmest on record.

For years now, these monthly reports have been almost exclusively bad news regarding climate change. 

Why break from tradition now? The news for October was crappy, too! 

THE WORLD

October turned out to be the world's second warmest on record, just a tiny smidge cooler than October 2023.

You might remember that this September ended 15 months of consecutive warmest months, as September was only second warmest. We're doing the same in October.

Sort of. Land areas had their warmest October on record. But oceans only had their second warmest October, so that dragged the entire world's average for the month down to second warmest. 

This tiny "cooling trend" if you want to call it that, was expected. An El Nino - which boosts global temperatures beyond even what climate change can do -- ended a few months ago. So I guess we've stopped breaking some records. At least for now. 

As has been the case for a long time now, it was hard to find notable cool spots in the world in October.

An area in and near the southern tip of South American was sort of cool. Along with a corner of Antarctica.  And a little area in the North Atlantic between southeastern Greenland and Iceland. 

Even that chillyish spot near Iceland is bad news.  It's another symptom of melt water from the ice caps of Greenland and elsewhere in the Arctic flowing into the North Atlantic. This is decreasing salinity in the region's water.

That has scientists worried the melt and changes will make a large, crucial Atlantic current system to collapse, causing abrupt  climate changes in Europe and elsewhere many orders of magnitude worse than anything we've seen since humans have been around. 

In October, most of the Arctic, the southwestern U.S., northern Mexico, parts of India and Pakistan, and a few pockets of Africa and South America had a record warm October.

 Other parts of the world that were way, way warmer than the 20th century average include most of South America, the  central and northeastern United States, sections of North Africa, huge swaths of Europe, the southern half of Asia, most of Australia and western Antarctica. 

I write pretty much the following sentence virtually every month, but I vaguely remember when I used the number 35 in it. But here goes: If you are younger than 48 years old, you've never seen a global October that was cooler than the 20th century average. 

The year to date (January-October) is the world's warmest on record by a wide margin. Basically, unless a big asteroid hits Earth any minute now, 2024 will be world's hottest on record. 

UNITED STATES

Just as you probably thought, October was super warm and dry in the Lower 48 of the United States. Officially, it was second warmest on record and tied for second driest. 

Almost all counties in Lower 48 were warmer than average
in October (orange and red shadings) Only a handful
were near average (in white). Even in warmer than
normal months, a few areas of the nation are cooler
than average. Not in October, 2024!

Pretty much everybody was warm in the United States in October, but as usual, some areas were toastier than others. Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Utah had their warmest October in at least 130 years. 

California, Colorado, Montana and Wyoming had their second warmest October. Ten other states were also in the top 10 ranking for hottest October. 

New Jersey and Delaware had their driest October on record. 

The first ten months of 2024 are the Lower 48's second warmest on record. Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin are all  had their warmest year to date through October. 

To nobody's surprise, November nationally and globally has been running hot so far. I'm sure we'll have a similar post in November telling everyone how hot and sweaty the month is.

These monthly climate posts on the state of the global and United States climate might seem tedious broken record type things,

But they serve an important purpose. It drives home the fact that climate change is roaring on, it's not abating and the effects are worsening. No matter who puts their head in the sand over this issue, the world needs to face reality.

I'm waiting to see if we step up to the plate or not.