Showing posts with label February. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Global Temperatures In February Cooled In The Most Minuscule, Inconsequential Way; U.S. February

February, 2026 was the worlds fifth warmest on record.
La Nina might have cooled the month a little, but
 still coming in fifth warmest under that La Nina
is disconcerting. It should have been cooler, if
not for climate change. 
After oh, so many months in which global temperatures were the warmest, second warmest or third warmest on record, February maintained a "cooler trend" of sorts that started in January. 

But it was so scant that this February was still among the top five warmest on record for the world says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

They write: 

"February 2026 was Earth's fifth-warmest February since records began in 1850, with a surface temperature 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degree C) above the 20th-century average. The 10 warmest Februaries on record have all occurred since 2016 and this month marked the 47th consecutive February with an above average temperature." 

For the past couple of years, it's been hard to find spots in the world during particular months that were chillier than the 20th century average. They were there, but few and far between. 

In February, the global temperature map was still overwhelmingly orange and red, indicating that most everyone was warmer than average.

But there were slightly more small cool patches than I've seen in a year or two. Those places were a section of the Arctic just north of Canada and Alaska; the southeastern United States, Scandinavia, northern Australia and a small pocket in southwest Africa. 

There were, as per the course in recent years many spots that were far warmer than the long time average from the 20th century. They include the western United States, especially the Southwest;  far northeastern Canadathe central North Atlantic Ocean; the Middle East; northwest Asia, parts of northern and eastern Africa, and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. 

Both January and February were a slight departure from recent years. Most months her the past there years or so were the warmest, second warmest or third warmest. So seeing two months in a row that were "mere" fifth warmest is a bit of a change. But not much of one.

It appears that in January and February, the world was probably feeling the fullest effects of the La Nina, which tends to cool the world.  If the world "cools" because of La Nina and the first two months of the year are still the fifth warmest out of the past 176 years, that's not great to say the least. 

Also, the ten hottest Februaries have all occurred since 2016.

NOAA predicts that La Nina will fade during the spring, and chances are we'll have an El Nino by summer or fall. El Ninos tend to warm up the world, so an El Nino risks taking the world to new heat heights, beyond the record years of 2023 and 2024. 

Global temperatures trends usually lag behind the onset of La Nina or El Nino, so my guess is we won't feel the effects of the likely oncoming El Nino much this year. But in 2027, watch out!

UNITED STATES

Map shows by how much temperatures were 
above or below normal during February, 2026.
The western two thirds of the U.S. was a blowtorch
The continental United States had its fourth warmest February on record, marked by another month of bizarre winter heat. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming all had their warmest Februaries on record. Including those states, 19 states had one of their top ten warmest Februaries. 

The immediate East Coast from New England to the Carolinas was the coolest region relative to average. 

But those areas did not come close to breaking records.  Rhode Island came closest, if you ca call it that, logging in its 36th coldest February out of the past 132 years. Massachusetts was close, coming in at #38 on the list of chilliest Februaries 

Here in Vermont, we came in with the 50th coldest February in the past 132 years.

February also turned out to be the nation's fifth driest on record.

Interestingly, despite a record-setting blizzard on February 22-24, New England was very dry. Rhode Island, the state hit hardest by that blizzard, had its 11th driest February. It was even drier elsewhere in the region. 

Maine had its second driest February. It was the 7th driest in New Hampshire, 8th driest in Massachusetts and 10th driest in Vermont. 

The dry weather was widespread throughout the United States. Mississippi had its driest February on record. Other states in the top ten driest were South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Louisiana. 

The dry weather through the central an southern Plains contributed to numerous damaging wildfires. Those fires grew worse in March. 

Only North Dakota was a little warmer than average, coming in with its 32nd wettest February.

March so far is coming in as a real contender for the hottest third month of the year in the United States. It could even beat out the notorious March, 2012 for unseasonably early heat, a feat many thought virtually impossible. 

But climate change seems to make anything possible, which is a frightening thing. 

Meteorological winter, December 1-February 28, was the nation's second warmest winter on record, driven by ridiculous winter heat in the west. Incredibly, nine large states in the west had their warmest winter on record, while seven others scored in the top 10 warmest. 

Parts of the Northeast were on the cool side, but only clocked in at around 30th to 40th coldest, so nothing remarkable on that side.  

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.
The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

Friday, February 27, 2026

Another Week Of Vermont Winter, But Insistent Signs Of Spring?

We've got more cold weather here in Vermont coming
for the first couple days of March. But longer range forecast
call for warm temperatures nationwide, except Alaska.
Even in Vermont, I've seen optimistic forecasts
of genuine thaws starting around March 4 or 5.
It was winter cold again this morning, with temperatures in most of Vermont bottoming out at around 0. Morrisville got as cold as 8 below. The banana belt Champlain Valley ended in the single digits above zero. 

Winter will hang tough for several more days. Extended forecasts are getting more insistent that hints of spring are coming soon. I'm still a little skeptical. 

More on that in a minute but we've got the next few days to take care of first 

TODAY

It'll be rather cloudy in north, but we'll get glimpse of sun, too. Southern areas should be sunnier. Winds have turned to the south, so we'll get into the 30s most places today. You might see a few light snow showers in the north as a weak warm front passes by.  No biggie, with no accumulation to speak of.

TONIGHT 

A strong storm way up by James Bay, Canada and robust high pressure to the east will create a windy night for us, especially in the Champlain Valley. Gust could reach 40 mph in a few spots. The south winds will keep temperatures up overnight, especially west of the Green Mountains. 

By dawn, it'll be in the mid and upper 30s west amid those strong south winds west of the Green Mountains an 20s in the calmer air east of the mountains

SATURDAY

Remember those forecasts of a one-day hint of spring on Saturday?  It's looking a bit more like a half day north. The Champlain Valley will probably warm up to around 40 by noon or early afternoon before the cold front sweeps in to drop temperatures for the rest of the day. 

 It'll take longer for the front to reach southern Vermont, so those areas should a pleasant day in the 40s. It could even hit 50 in some valleys in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The cold front will be starved for moisture, so expect just sprinkles ahead of it and flurries behind. 

The National Weather Service is offering a warning to anyone who wants to venture out into Lake Champlain over the next few days. Strong, shifting winds and Saturday's mini-thaw might break up ice on the broad lake, so you might want to stick to protected bays and such if you do go out on the ice this weekend. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Into the icebox we go.  We'll start Sunday in the teens with maybe a few single numbers north A weak disturbance looks like it wants to come through with a little snow during the first half of the day. 

Current forecasts call for less than an inch north and an inch or two south. Stay tuned, as if the path of this little disturbance changes, snowfall amounts could change. But this will by no stretch of the imagination be a blockbuster. 

Temperature should stay in the teens to around 20 for highs both Sunday and Monday, which is way, way below normal. Lows Monday morning should be in the minus 5 to minus 15 range for the most part. 

BEYOND MONDAY

We know that temperatures will become more seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday. We're watching a potential small storm that could deposit a few inches of snow or perhaps a mix, maybe,Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s later in the week. But cold high pressure will be lurking in Quebec, so it's possible those forecasts are too optimistic. 

Other long range forecasts keep insisting that after next Wednesday, it should be warmer than normal at least into mid-March.  Give our endless parade of cold snaps in recent months, I'm still in "I'll believe it when I see it mode."

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Vermont January Weather On Paper Was Pretty Average, But February Looking Harsher

An intense snow squall loomed over Lake Champlain, as
seen from Burlington, Vermont on January 22. It was
one of the few instances of weather drama in the state
this January. While the rest of the U.S endured extremes.
Vermont just kind of poked along with near normal weather.
It might not seem like it, given the recent bone-chilling weather in Vermont, but overall, January was right around average both in terms of temperature and precipitation. 

A relatively warm start to the month and a cold finish sort of balanced January's books. 

Compared to most Januaries,  and compared to the weather drama January, 2026 caused elsewhere in the nation, Vermont's version of the month was quiet and shy.  

TEMPERATURES

Burlington's average temperature for January, 2026 was 20.0 degrees, which was just 0.9 degrees cooler than normal.

Out of the past 137 years of accurate records in Burlington, this January was the 55th warmest, or 82nd coolest, however you want to look at it. So pretty much in the middle.

An odd trend I found statewide is that average high temperatures for this January were cooler than normal but overnight lows were close to average. In Burlington, the average high for the month of 26.6 degrees was 2.3 degrees on the chilly side. But the daily low temperature average was 13.5 degrees which was a little more than half a degree on the warm side. 

I found the same trend of chilly high temperatures and near average low temperatures when I looked at Montpelier, Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock.  

This was the first time since January-March, 2015 in which Burlington had three consecutive colder than average months. 

Temperatures during the month never got on the extreme side, either. The warmest it got in Burlington was 49 degrees. The warmest it's ever been in January is 66 degrees, in 1995. Likewise, Burlington's low temperature for the month was 8 below. The coldest it's ever been in January is 30 below, in 1957.

PRECIPITATION

Rain and melted snow were pretty average during January in Vermont, too. Burlington had 2.19 inches of precipitation, which was just 0.06 inches above average. I was able to find 144 consecutive years of reliable January precipitation data for Burlington. January, 2026 was the 45th wettest or 99th driest, depending on how you want to loo at it. Again, nothing scary in that department either. 

Snowfall was near to above normal, riding mostly on the large snowstorm on January 25-26 that dumped around 20 inches of snow in some parts of the state. This was part of a massive, destructive winter storm that basically trashed most of the southern and eastern parts of the U.S.

True to form, though, Vermont's version of the storm was just a pretty, fluffy, happy winter snow day. The only other semi-dramatic day came on the 22nd, when there were some pretty intense, but brief snow squalls around the state. 

It was, as usual for winter, a windy month, especially in the Champlain Valley. Fourteen days had wind gusts at or above 30 mph in Burlington. Winds reached 50 mph on January 9. 

OUTLOOK

January is usually the coldest month of the year, but in 2026, February has a very strong chance of being the chilliest month of the winter. 

The cold weather pattern that took hold in the final week or so of January looks like it's going to stubbornly hang on for quite awhile. Who knows? Maybe all month.   

The weather pattern that has set up for February tends to be very dry, too. We call it a "continental month" since winters smack dab in the middle of North American tend to be very cold and very dry. 

The forecasts are pretty unanimous that depending on the day, it'll be either sort of cold or really cold through the middle of February. 

There's a chance of some sort of pattern change later in the month, but we don't know if or how that's going to arrange itself. If this cold pattern lasts all of February, though, we have an excellent chance of seeing one of the driest Februarys on record. 

The driest February on record in Burlington was in 1978 with just 0.21 inches of precipitation. That was a classic "continental month" as well, as it still ranks as the fourth coldest February on record in Burlington, with an average temperature of 9.5 degrees.

If any of you asking weather February, 1978 was when New England's Blizzard of '78 happened, it did. However that blizzard largely missed northwest parts of the Green Mountain State. To really geek out, all but 0.01 inches of February, 1978's meager precipitation came on Feb 6-8, when the blizzard was passing by to the southeast of Burlington. 

Thursday, March 13, 2025

February Was World's 3rd Hottest, U.S. But Trump Administration Doesn't Want You To Know That,

The world had its 3rd hottest February on record, despite
the supposed "cooling" effect of La Nina. 
February turned out to be the third warmest on record for the world as a whole, according to the latest report from the National Centers for Environmental Information (an arm of NOAA) and other scientific organizations. 

This is the first time in about since May, 2023 - nearly two years -  that a particular month was not the warmest or second warmest on record.

Scientists expected this "cooling" trend if you want to call it that. Global temperatures tend to cool during La Nina episodes of chilly water in the eastern Pacific. 

That the admittedly weak La Nina still resulted in the third hottest February is concerning to say the least, because the effects of climate change appear to overwhelming cooling influences more strongly than ever. 

Before we get into the data, some more outrageousness from the Trump administration regarding this report

TRUMP INTERFERENCE

The Trump administration clamped down on the usual press releases and availability of scientists that the National Centers for Environmental Information, an arm of NOAA that usually accompanies the release of these monthly reports. 

Every month since the George W. Bush administration, these monthly reports had also featured press calls, in which NCEI scientists discuss the report with the press and answer question. 

According to Axios, NOAA blamed the lack of press availability on staff cuts and the anticipation of more firings soon.  This isn't a one-off. NOAA/NCEI do not plan to resume the media briefings. 

There's apparently an even more insidious reason for the lack of a press briefing on the February climate report.  Per Axios:

"According to two sources outside the agency who were privy to deliberations from current employees, NCEI had trouble recruiting scientists to volunteer to be on the calls for fear of angering the administration by discussing human-caused global warming."

The Trumpers have thus once again succeeded in hiding information from the public, or at the very least  making it more difficult to access. I don't blame the scientists for being so reticent. I'm hopping mad at the Trump administration for again trying to create their own "reality" that is contrary to established facts. And using fear and intimidation to do it. 

One reason I'm butt hurt about this is the monthly NCEI press briefings put the issues of global climate in front of reporters, who then broadcast it far and wide. I don't all reporters will just think to read the report as it comes out every month.

If it comes out every month. The Trump minions might just stop the monthly reports altogether. Or alter them so that the reports lie about what's really going on with global temperatures. 

I'm a teeny tiny outlet with a minuscule number of readers (but always looking for more!) I'll continue to report out these monthly NCEI monthly climate checkups. I hope a lot of other bigger, more powerful media outlets do the same. 

THE DATA

 Since we at least still  have an NCEI/NOAA  report this month anyway, we can say areas that were warmest relative to average in February were the Arctic, central South America, ocean areas north of Australia, the central North Pacific, the Caribbean and central North Atlantic Ocean and parts of the Indian Ocean. 

As usual, chilly spots were hard to find on Earth during February, 2025.  Southwestern Canada, parts of northwest and north central United States, bits and pieces of Antarctica, the southern tip of South America and a few spots in the Mideast were a little on the cool side.

Ocean temperatures overall were warmer relative to average compared to land. Land areas had their fourth warmest February, while oceans had their second warmest February. 

That's actually bad news because oceans in a climate change regime store extra heat, as it seemed to be doing in February. Eventually it's released, and the result is eventually record heat waves and sometimes storms on land where most of us people live. 

The La Nina that sort of "cooled" the Earth in February is not expected to last much longer. Neutral conditions - neither La Nina or the world-warming El Nino - are expected by late spring. 

Sometimes La Ninas come back after fading like scientists expect this spring. It could come back for a stay as long as two years, but nobody knows for sure. 

We do know that whatever happens, month after month will score in the top ten warmest, and most of the time probably in the top three warmest indefinitely going forward. By the way, if you are under the age of 46, you have never seen a global February that is cooler than the long term pre-industrial average. 

UNITED STATES

The U.S., in contrast to the world as a whole,
had a fairly close to average February, just
a little warmer than average. 
February climate statistics for the United States came out this week, and it showed the nation had at least a  sort of warm month overall. 

Meteorological winter, December 1 through February 28 was also on the warm side, but definitely  not record-breaking. 

The United States only encompasses a little under two percent of the Earth's surface, so the overall climate trend in February and the rest of the winter likely won't follow global trends. It very often doesn't. 

 In the United States, February for the Lower 48 was just 50th warmest out of the 131 years of record. So on the whole it was a little warmer than the long term average, but not by much. 

The coldest part of the nation relative to average was Montana, which had its 13th coldest February on record. The central and northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest were on the chilly side, too, but not at record cold levels.

The southwestern and southeastern part the Lower 48 were the warmest relative to average. Arizona had its second warmest February on record. New Mexico had its fourth warmest and Florida had its 7th warmest. 

Precipitation was also worked out to be close to average for the Lower 48 as a whole, but of course there were wet spots and dry areas as usual.

New Mexico had its sixth driest February on record. By contrast, Virginia had its fifth wettest February. West Virginia was seventh wettest and Kentucky was ninth soggiest.

In general the northern Rockies, the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast away from the coast were on the wet side, while the Plains, southwestern United States and extreme southeastern pars of the U.S. were dry.  

By the way, March in the United States and globally is off to a warm start. So don't expect any real cooling on Earth this month. 

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global Sea Ice Hit Record Low In February, Aided By Arctic's Year Without A Winter

The trend line in Arctic sea ice extent in February.
It hit a record low this year. The trend line has
been sharply downward
 The steady drumbeat of climate change news and details keeps coming along, and it just doesn't stop.

The latest is a new low in the extent of sea ice around the world. 

Per the Washington Post:

"Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the daily global sea ice extent, which combines the amount of sea ice present in the Arctic and Antarctic, hit a new low in early February and remained below the record from 2023 for the rest of the month."

The Arctic was largely to blame for February's poor ice performance. WaPo continues:

"In particular, researchers said, the Arctic has continued to experience steadily less ice over time. The region has warmed at several times the global average, and while sea ice in the Arctic usually reaches its annual peak in March, it recorded its lowest ever monthly extent for February last month."

Much of the Arctic experienced their version of a year without a winter this year. Yes, it was frickin' cold up there, with temperatures usually far, far below zero.  

But not as far below zero as usual, and some weird winter heat waves extended well north into the Arctic this winter.  February temperatures were as much as 20 degrees above normal, so the usual winter manufacturing of sea ice up there faltered. 

MIDWINTER ARCTIC THAW?

The weirdest moment came on February 2, when areas very close to the North Pole were an incredible 68 degrees warmer than normal. Which meant the actual temperature was very close to the freezing mark of 32 degrees. A buoy just south of the North Pole registered a temperature of 33 degrees that day. 

You're supposed to be rapidly forming and thickening ice near the North Pole in early February, not melting it. Ice is supposed to grow steadily in the Arctic during February. Instead, it stalled twice, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Groundhog Day hot spell was caused by a strong storm near Iceland that pulled very warm air toward the North Pole. The air was made extra hot by record warm sea temperatures in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Climate change helped turn a rare winter Arctic hot spell into something extraordinary 

Scientists aren't sure if something like this has happened before, but an event in February, 2018 at least came very close.  

Meanwhile, at the end of the Antarctic summer, the extent of ice down there was close to its annual minimum for the year as February closed.  It looks like this year's minimum ice extent in Antarctica will come in at a tie for second lowest, with the years 2022 and 2024. Final figures on that are due soon.   

WHY THIS IS BAD

Here's why a lack of sea ice in the Arctic is bad. The white ice reflects the sun's heat back to outer space. Blue open ocean water absorbs it. If not much ice forms in the darkness of an Arctic winter, then there's lots of extra blue Arctic ocean water to absorb sunlight in the spring and summer. This further warms the Arctic, and in turn the rest of the world. 

It's a classic feedback loop. 

The loss of Arctic ice won't raise sea levels. I mean, when the ice cubes in your gin and tonic melts, your glass doesn't overflow. Same principal here.

However, the fact that the lack of ice in the Arctic is helping accelerate global warming, that would in turn accelerate melting off of glaciers on land. Which of course would increase the worldwide sea level. 

Final figures aren't in yet, but early indications are February globally had the slightest cooldown compared to most months in recent years. But it's no reason to cheer. 

February might end up as the world's third warmest on record, instead of the hottest or second hottest we've kept seeing over the past couple of years.

But a February that comes in at #3 on the top ten hottest list during a La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world a little bit, is not encouraging at all.

I'll have more details on our global February once more data becomes available.  

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Vermont February Was Snowy, Stormy, Still Not Historically Wildly Out Of Whack

A snow squall cuts visibility in St. Albans to near zero
on February 7.  This year brought Vermont one of the 
snowier Februaries on record. 
 The February climate data is in for Vermont, and as you've probably already guessed, we had a true winter month for a change. 

Even so, it wasn't really that out of the ordinary compared to past Februarys in the state.

Temperatures.

We were pretty consistent statewide, with pretty much all weather stations running between about 1.5 to 2 degrees cooler than normal, give or take. 

Remember, though, "normal" is the new normal. It's based on the average of the years 1990 to 2020. Those years were already warmer than the 20th century average, thanks to climate change.

Based on this "new normal," February, 2025 in Burlington came in at 1.7 degrees chillier than average. But had this exact same month occurred in the 1960s or 1970s, it would have been regarded as slightly warmer than average. 

Still, the month just ended was Burlington's coldest February in a decade.  

Temperatures never went to extremes at any time in February, really. February temperatures historically in Burlington have ranged as high as 72 degrees (in 2017) to as low as minus 30 (in 1979).

This year, the highest it ever got in Burlington was 47 and the lowest was 8 below.  No daily record high or low temperatures were set. 

Climate change has made daily record highs in Burlington generally more frequent. But we haven't had a record high since December 30. I wonder if we're overdue for that. 

Snow

It took a lot of shoveling to keep up with the snow in
Vermont during February, 2025
As you might have noticed, we definitely had a snowy month. Burlington accumulated a total of 33.2 inches in February, making it the fifth snowiest February on record. (Top spot goes to the very snowy year of 2011, when 43.1 inches of snow fell in February). 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield reached 98 inches by February 27 and 28. That's far above the average depth of 65 inches there for late February. 

I hope all this snow gave a boost to Vermont's economy. There were no thaws in Vermont to the very end of the month, and even then, temperatures weren't that hot.  Which means snow conditions for all kinds of winter sports were primo. 

Even though February was snowy, low elevations have not had a particular snowy winter. Burlington through February 28 has had 64.4 inches of snow since the first flurries came in November. That's jus slightly below the average for this date of 65.

Melted Precipitation

With all that snow, the water equivalent of the frozen precipitation and any rain that fell was above normal for February across Vermont.  That's a good thing, since most of the state still has a few lingering effects from last autumn's drought. All this snow melting in the spring will help with replenishing ground water. 

Burlington had 2.58 inches of rain and melted snow in February, which is a little over three quarters of an inch above normal. By my count, this February was Burlington's 21st wettest out of the past 141 years. 

Most everyone else in Vermont had about the same amount of precipitation as Burlington, except of course in the mountains, which had more. Most Vermont weather stations had about a half to two thirds of an inch more precipitation than average.

Looking Ahead.

More than perhaps any other month, March is a weather wildcard in Vermont. Early indications are this month will be no exception. 

We woke up this morning in much of the state with a little new snow on the ground, which is starting to melt as temperatures briefly rise above freezing. Then, temperatures will horrible crash starting this afternoon and continuing into Monday morning. 

After some below zero temperatures Sunday and Monday morning, it looks like we'll warm up to thawing and rain by midweek. From there, I imagine we'll have the kind of roller coaster we almost always have in March: One day wintry, the next springlike then back to winter.


Wednesday, February 12, 2025

The Vermont/Northeast Storms Aren't Ending: A Yucky One Thursday, And Maybe A Bigger Weekend One

Latest snowfall projections for the storm late tonight and
tomorrow morning. This one is going to feature snow
to a mix to even some rain, a schmutzy one for sure. 
 Seems like every day this month we're updating forecasts on Vermont winter storms and weather. And it looks like every day for awhile yet we're going to be doing more of the same.  

Expect weirdness and surprises, too. That seems to be the pattern, as unexpected curv
e balls keep getting thrown into the Vermont weather situation. 

That kind of happened yesterday. A nice,  normal cold front was supposed to sweep southward during the day, setting off some brief snow showers and snow squalls as the front glided through the state.

Then for some reason the front got hung up for hours in north-central Vermont, giving Burlington, for instance a surprise 2.6 inches of snow while points a dozen miles or so north and south of the city got just a dusting. 

Go figure. 

That front finally got its act together and went south later last night, so now it's cold and calm again. At least for today. 

The storms themselves keep coming reliably.  We have at least two more to go. 

 The first is a messy one tomorrow, and the second is a larger one over the weekend that will either be snow, or another round of icy, ugly schmutz. We don't know yet. But let's take tomorrow's mess first.

THURSDAY. 

Messy storms take forever to explain, so bear with me. It's a fair amount to take in.

All the computer models agree on taking a pretty strong storm on a northeasterly direction down the St. Lawrence Valley of southern Canada while a weak secondary storm tries, and initially sort of fails to get going in southern New England.  

Anyone up for grilling up some sausages and eggs and
having a nice breakfast brunch outside in this
wintry February? Nah, didn't think so.

What's in disagreement is what exactly will fall from the sky in Vermont during all this and in what quantities. 

This storm will cause a nice stripe of six to 18 inches snow totals across southern Quebec. I'd blow off any trips to Montreal tomorrow, as they're expecting a good 10 to 15 inches of snow, easily their biggest storm of the winter. 

Since the storm is mostly going to Vermont's north, we get an intrusion of warm air with this thing. Translation: A classic schmutz storm. I also hope like you like slush. Followed by lots of ice under foot when that slush eventually freezes. 

Late Tonight/Thursday Morning

The likely scenario is that snow will start overnight. Fluffy at first but then turning wetter and heavier as we get toward dawn while temperatures rise toward the freezing point. 

We'll also start to see sleet and freezing rain mix in south to north across Vermont late at night down toward Bennington, and spreading north pretty much to the Canadian border during the day. 

It'll get windy, too which will certainly add to the fun. The initial fluffy snow will blow around, making things worse on the roads. Then, there's nothing more thrilling than having 40 mph gusts in some areas slam those little ice balls of sleet into the side of your face while you're outside. 

The strongest winds in the morning will probably be along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, where we could easily see gusts to 45 mph or more. 

Snowfall with this won't befall that  much, but it will vary greatly place to place.  Southeast facing slopes of the Green Mountains will probably see a nice thump of two to five inches. Places right along the Canadian border might do pretty well and get into the four inch range, as they'll be near the edge of that big Montreal snowstorm.

Southeast winds flowing down the slopes of the western slopes Green and White mountains will limit probably limit snowfall to a dusting to two inches west of those ranges. The mountains block the moisture, and also, the winds cause compressional warming which will make those areas west of the mountains poke up above freezing before other places. 

The sleet and freezing rain mixing in Thursday morning will serve to just add more ice and complications to your morning commute, so you'll want to take extra time to get where you're going. 

Luckily, there won't be much ice, so we don't have to worry about trees and power lines caving in under the weight of ice. 

There's always a chance this storm could ultimately shift paths a little more, so don't be surprised if some areas end up with less snow, or more snow than outlined here. 

Thursday Afternoon/Night

The precipitation will taper to scattered showers of wet snowflakes, raindrops and maybe a few more ice pellets as temperatures in most valley manage to get a little above freezing. Maybe even 40 degrees in the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Temperatures will quickly crash Thursday night, so the slush that gets manufactured in the brief afternoon thaw will freeze into hard, uneven ice. Great for walking on it you're looking to break your ankle. (And who isn't?!?)

After a lull Thursday afternoon, the winds will crank again Thursday night and Friday, this time from the west and northwest, gusting to 35 mph in spots. 

NEXT STORM

I won't go into the larger weekend storm in much detail yet. We have enough to digest with tomorrow's system. 

This bigger one is starting to trend more north and warmer, too, so it could be another snow to mix scenario, though I'm not sure yet. Best chances of freezing rain an sleet would be in southern Vermont, 

Whatever happens with the weekend storm, it will last longer and produce more precipitation of some sort than all these quick hitters we've had this month. So watch this space!



Friday, March 15, 2024

February Was World's 9th Consecutive Warmest On Record Month

Lots of red again, this time on the temperatures across
the world in February, relative to long term averages.
NOAA confirmed on Thursday what everybody pretty much knew:  

This year featured the world's hottest February on record. It was the ninth month in a row that turned out to be a record hot month for Earth, this according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

That's quite a trend. I know that El Nino boosted global temperatures. But it wasn't the strongest El Nino ever, that's for sure. Which means climate change almost surely influenced things, which of course isn't exactly shocking news these days. 

Ominously, in February, it seemed the oceans were generally the hottest relative to average. The places on Earth that featured temperatures the furthest above normal were the tropical, equatorial and eastern Atlantic Ocean;  the northern and eastern Indian Ocean and parts of the central Pacific Ocean.

I used the word "ominously" because warm oceans tend to create more powerful hurricanes, stronger non-tropical storms and heavier rain on land. We'll be hearing plenty of news for the rest of this year about intense floods, typhoons, hurricanes and other severe weather. 

On that land, the warmest places relative to 20th century averages were western Europe, eastern and southern Asia, most of South America,  the southern half of Africa and parts of central and eastern North America. 

As always, there were a handful of cool areas, but they were extraordinarily few and far between, as they have been for months. 

The cool spots relative to average were small parts of the the southeastern Pacific Ocean, a little patchy the southwestern Indian Ocean, in around the Koreas, a mini little  patch between Iceland and Greenland.  

Given the fact that December, January and February were each the world's warmest on record, it's obvious that meteorological winter (December 1-February 29) was also the hottest on record. Yes, I know in the southern half of Earth, that period was the hottest summer on record. 

This is one month where everything "matched" globally and locally.  Both United States and Canada had their warmest winter on record, too.  We did, too, here in Vermont. 

With El Nino fading and a likely opposite La Nina looming, our long string of record warm months will probably end soon. 

La Ninas tend to cool the Earth a bit, which is the opposite effect El Nino has.

If recent past history is any guide, the coming months in the next year or two won't be that much cooler. Most of them will probably score in the top five warmest, just as they did during the "cool" La Nina of 2000-2022,

Climate change will keep heating us up unrelentingly. Expect plenty more instances of extreme weather, with or without any kind of El Nino. 

Monday, February 19, 2024

Despite Daily Snows Over Past 6 Days, Odd, Dry Vermont February Unfolding

Dry, bare ground on the shores of partly frozen Lake
Champlain in Georgia, Vermont on February 13. This
has been a very dry month so far. 
 Briefly heavy snow showers very early this Monday morning meant that today was the sixth consecutive day with measurable precipitation in Burlington, Vermont. 

Barely measurable, though.  

Melt down the snow we've gotten only a quarter inch of liquid in those six days. The month's total precipitation so far is just 0.28 inches.  

February is normally the driest month of the year, but so far this February is shaping up to be among the driest on record.

That's a big departure from everything since late June.  Most months since then have been decidedly on the wet side in Vermont.  I suppose we needed the break.

What makes this dry February unusual is that it's happening during an unusually warm month. 

Almost all of the top driest Februaries on record were very cold. You'd get a constant feed of Arctic air during those arid Februaries.  That frigid air from northern Canada is almost devoid of moisture. And that northerly flow blocks any wet storms that want to invade from the south or west.

During warm Februaries, we often see moist winds from the south and southwest, and storms going by just to our west to bring rounds of precipitation. Often in those warm Februaries, that precipitation is rain or ice and  not snow, but still, it's stuff falling from the sky. 

The only other warm February I could find that was warm, but also very dry was 1991. That month only had about a half inch of precipitation, making it the fifth driest February on record in Burlington.  February, 1991 was decidedly on the warm side, coming in 3.6 degrees above normal. I did find a couple other very dry Februaries that were only slightly colder than average. 

This February is really warm, though, despite the colder weather we're experiencing today and tonight, the month is running nearly 9 degrees warmer than average so far.  

This won't be the driest February on record. Those honors go to the frigid February of 1978, with only 0.21 inches of precipitation in Burlington. (Northwestern Vermont mostly missed out on the epic New England Blizzard of '78 that month. It did hit central and southern Vermont).

The next chance of any precipitation around northern Vermont isn't until Thursday or Friday. So far, that  storm doesn't look very impressive, either, but you never know.

As I mentioned, February is a dry month, with the average precipitation coming out at 1.77 inches. Burlington's  tenth driest month on record logged 0.75 inches of precipitation.

 It would take only one mid-sized storm between now and February 29 to take us out of the running for making it into the top 10 list of driest Februaries. I said February 29 because this is a leap year. 

Even so, this is so far yet another very odd month for weather in Vermont. At least this time, the oddness is pretty benign, and we're not suffering through any destructive storms which have seemed so frequent since last summer. 

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Planet Earth Had Its Fourth Warmest February On Record

Another hot global month is now on the books.

Once again, on a global basis, February was a toasty 
month. It was the fifth warmest on record, at least
 for the past 174 years.

On Tuesday, the National Centers for Environmental Information put out its monthly report, this time covering February. The month was the world's fourth warmest on record.  

The hottest spots, relative to average, were the Arctic, northern Europe, southwestern Asia and the eastern United States.

The few cold spots, again, relative to average were in northern Canada, parts of the western United States and northeastern Siberia.

The Arctic had its third lowest ice extent on record. Antarctica and its lowest ice extent on record. 

"February, 2023 marked the 44th consecutive February and 528th consecutive month with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average," NCEI reported.

Chile, Taiwan, Pakistan and Cyprus reported all time record highs for those nations and territories in February. That brings to 17 the number of nations and territories that reported all time record highs in 2023. And we have ten months to go. 

 Overall, meteorological winter, which runs from December 1 through February 28, was the world's fifth warmest on record.   Each of the last nine meteorological winters on a global basis are among the top ten warmest on record as well. 


 

Thursday, March 9, 2023

U.S. Had Warm, Wet, Strange Winter; Just Like Here In Vermont

 It wasn't just us here in Vermont who had a really warm, kinda wet winter. 

Almost everybody east of the Mississippi River had one
of their warmest winters on record, new data shows,
The United States as a whole had that kind of winter, too.  Nationally, it was the 17th warmest and 21st wettest meteorological winter on record out of the last 128 winters, the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information tells us. 

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 to February 28. 

Massachusetts had its warmest winter on record. Twenty-nine states - including Vermont  - had one of their 10 warmest winters. (Vermont's winter was flagged at #3 on the warm scale)

If you leave out December, twelve states, again including Vermont, had their all-time hottest January-February combo on record. 

A broad stripe of the nation from California, through the central and northern Plains, Great Lakes and on into New England had a wetter than normal winter. Wisconsin actually pulled off its wettest winter on record, and seven other states had one of their top 10 wettest. 

Vermont had its 31st wettest winter since 1895.

The storms in California meant that 98 percent of the state was in drought on January 3, but that number was down to 49 percent by February 28.  

A broad stripe of the nation from California through the
Great Lakes to New England had a wet winter. 

Of course, given the size of the nation, not everybody shared in the warmth. Or the storminess.

Seven states, all in the Rockies or west of them, had a cooler than normal winter, though none of them were in the top ten coldest. The Pacific Northwest and Florida were drier than normal, but again, not among the top ten driest. 

For most of the United States, the winter was warm far more often than not except for two brief but very dramatic cold snaps. A large scale one on Christmas week from the Rockies to the East Coast dropped temperatures by 50 or more degrees in many areas within 24 hours.  The cold snap contributed to an intense, lake effect blizzard in and around Buffalo, New York that killed 39 people.

Another intense, more localized brief cold shot in the Northeast, particularly in New England on February 3-4 plunged temperatures to record lows. But warm weather returned quickly.  

So basically, aside from the brutal storms in California and a snowy, but not super cold northern Plains and Great Lakes, America's winter lasted for less than a week in December and a couple days in early February. 

FEBRUARY

Along with the winter seasonal stats, the National Centers for Environmental Information also released their monthly report on the nation's climate for just the month of February. 

February was on the warm side almost everywhere east of the Rockies. Virginia had its warmest February on record, and 20 other states scored among the top 10 warmest Februaries out of 129 years of record.  

Like the rest of the winter, February was quite warm east
of the Mississippi River. 

The Rockies and Pacific Coast, on the other hand were chilly. California had its 20th coldest February out of the past 129 years. 

Here in Vermont, February was definitely on the warm side, but was only the 13th warmest out of 129 years of records. 

Overall, February for the nation as a whole was just ever so slightly on the dry side, despite the parade of storms that continued to smash into California all month. 

 February was very dry in the eastern half of New England, even if the overall winter was on the wet side. The Pacific Northwest was a little on the dry side for them, too.   Areas around the Great Lakes were quite a bit wetter than average during February. 

The month was also notable for three tornado outbreaks, on Feb 8-9, 16-17 and 26-27.  One other tornado, unusual for its strength for winter and its position so far north, hit New Jersey on February 21. 

Climate data for February and the entire winter for the whole world should become available in about a week or two. 

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Vermont February Warm; Winter Was Among Warmest

Early winter was so warm that daffodil shoots were 
starting to come up in St. Albans, Vermont on Jan. 5
 The latest climate numbers are in for Vermont and - no surprise! We had a warm February, and winter overall was among the hottest on record.   

First we'll get into the overall winter figures, as they'r impressive, then we delve into February. 

THE WINTER

Meteorological winter, which is how climatologists keep track of seasonal trends, runs from December 1 through February 28. Or February 29 in leap years. 

In Burlington, this turned out to be the third warmest winter on record with a mean temperature of 29.0. The warmest winter was in 2015-16, withy a mean temperature of 30.1. 

With this year's data in, remarkably, now, all of Burlington's top 5 warmest winters have been since 2001-02.  Records go back to the 1880s. It's also alarming, given the trends pushed by climate change. 

In contrast, the last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was in 1993-94, which barely crept into a three way tie at #10. Before that,  the most recent winter to be in the top 10 coldest was 1970-71

It's not just us. It appears this winter will be the warmest on record for a good four dozen or more stations in the eastern United States. Hundreds of other cities and towns in the East had one of their top five warmest winters this year. 

The winter in Burlington was a little wetter than average with just over 6 inches of rain and melted snow. That's about an inch and quarter above normal. 

FEBRUARY

February certainly contributed toward creating one of our warmest winters, but it wasn't quite as off the charts warm as January. 

In Burlington, February's mean temperature worked out to 26.1 degrees, a solid 3.2 degrees warmer than average. 

A brief intense cold wave on Feb. 3-4 in an otherwise warm
winter created lots of funnels and steam
devils on Lake Champlain. 

Remember, average is a "new normal." 

"Normal" is now taking the average of the 30 years ending in 2020.  In previous decades "normal" monthly average temperatures were colder than they are now. 

February in Burlington was just outside the top 10 warmest on record, coming in around 11th or 12th. 

Other places in Vermont were similarly warm in February. Montpelier, with an average temperature or 25 degrees, was a good six degrees warmer than average. Bennington was about 5 degrees warmer than normal. St. Johnsbury and Rutland were each more than three degrees on the warm side. 

Temperatures certainly yo-yo'd in Vermont's February. The brief cold snap that brought temperatures in many parts of Vermont to around 20 below on the morning of February 4 was quickly replaced by above freezing temperatures the next day.

That was the start of a remarkable 18 consecutive days in Burlington that got above freezing. The heat peaked on February 15 and 16 with record highs of 57 and 56 degrees in Burlington. Down in Bennington, it got as warm as 62 degrees. Rutland, which had ten consecutive days at least in the 40s, was close behind Bennington with a peak of 61 degrees.

Vermont maple sugarers made some unusually large early season harvests in February. 

Even though the overall winter was a little on the west side, Vermont had a dry February. And February is  normally the year's driest month to begin with. Burlington was only about a quarter inch shy of its average of 1.77 inches of rain or melted snow and ice. Montpelier had only half its normal February allotment of precipitation. St. Johnbury and Bennington were more than a half inch short.

The lack of precipitation gives you a hint that snowfall was below normal, too. Burlington had 12.6 inches of snow, which was nearly 7 inches below normal. 

Almost all of that came in the final 11 days of the month. Through February 16, Burlington only had  0.4 inches of February snowfall through the first 16 days of the month. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's usually nearly impossible to tell what the weather will be like in the next month. That's true with this March. But there are some stronger than usual signals about what conditions will be like through the month. 

On February 15, snow melt left a Vermont landscape 
looking like it does around April 1. The second half
of the month was snowier and a winter landscape returned.

And you won't like it if you were anxious to stick a fork in this lame winter and get on with spring. 

Indications are that most of the month will be on the cold side. That isn't to say there won't be any warm days thrown in. 

Still, it's possible, though definitely not a guarantee, that March might end up being colder than December, January or February were. 

The anticipated chilly March is partly a product of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the Arctic that hit in mid-February The SSW, as it's known, disrupts the polar vortex and can cause extended periods of cold weather in eastern North America a few weeks after it happens. 

It's possible we might warm up into real spring like weather toward the end of the month, but nobody has any idea whether that will happen or not. The end of March's weather is basically a coin toss.

March often comes in like a lion, as they say, and it's looking like that will at least sort of be the case this year. 

A bit of mixed precipitation is due tomorrow night and early Thursday, but I don't think it will amount to all that much.

Forecasters are still looking at a possible bigger storm Friday night and Saturday. We know a large storm will affect parts of the eastern U.S.. Meteorologists hoped to have a little more clarity by now on how this storm will affect Vermont. 

But the computer models are disagreeing on whether the heaviest snow will pass south of us, or bullseye at least parts of the state. It is looking more and more like this storm will produce all, more mostly all snow in the Green Mountain State. But even that's not a guarantee. 

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

A Windy Vermont February Contrasts With An Oddly Calm January

Gusty winds sweep through some pine trees in 
St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday. February has been
a rather windy month in Vermont,
especially in the Champlain Valley
 It's been pretty windy in Vermont, especially in the Champlain Valley this month. 

Including today, 13 of the first 20 days of this February have seen wind gusts at or over 30 mph in Burlington. Winds got up as high as 50 mph on February 7. 

These winds have not been enough to cause a lot of damage, unlike the 71 mph gusts in the pre-Christmas storm back in December. 

But still, the winds have tempered the unusual warmth of this month by providing a little bite of wind chill to these mild days. 

In a way, the wind we're seeing is sort of a sign of spring.  That's why we have the famous March winds. 

It's just that they're a little early this year. The sun's angle is increasing, so it's getting a little better at heating the ground. The heat from the ground creates updrafts. Those updrafts get high enough to reach stronger winds a couple thousand feet overhead, and mix those winds to the surface.

The nice thing about these windy days is they tend to mix out and dissolve low clouds and fog. It still might well be overcast with these winds, but at least horizontal visibility stays pretty good. .

Of course, we can get strong winds in December and January on the power of any passing vigorous storm that passes through. 

This January, though, I counted only four days with winds of 30 mph or greater in Burlington. This helped make the month especially gloomy. Many days in January had us hunkered down under low clouds, fog, drizzle and snow flurries. 

It looks like windy days will continue off and on for the foreseeable future, as several storm systems will help stir the air. Plus we head into March and its gusty days soon.

So, hang on to your hats!

Video: Another windy day in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday.  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 



Friday, February 17, 2023

As Winter Sets Back In For Now, A Remarkably Springlike February So Far

This week, my yard in St. Albans looked as it should
around April 1 after a very warm February so far. 
 As I write this late this morning, it''s awful outside my St. Albans, Vermont window.

All morning, we've had freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and a little snow, and even a brief hail storm. 

However, until now, I have to stop and mention how remarkable this month has been so far. 

In Burlington, the snowfall this month as of yesterday was 0.4 inches. That's it. Not even  half an inch.  That's a full 11 inches below normal for this far into the month of February. Some more will come today, but it won't be a whopping amount. 

The least snow of any February in Burlington was 1.3 inches in 1957.  We do have several shots at receiving some snow before the end of the month, so I can't say that we'll set any record in that department. At least not yet.

So far this winter, Burlington had received just 37.7 inches of snow as of Thursday. That's a full 20 inches below normal for this point in the winter. 

We won't have a record low year for snow totals. That was set in the winter of 1912-13 with just 31.8 inches. We have an outside chance of scoring in the top 10 least snowy winters, though. In 10th place currently is 1937-38 with 45.1 inches. 

Also, despite the intense two-day cold wave on February 3 and 4, in which both days were roughly 20 degrees below normal, this February has turned out pretty warm so far.

As of yesterday, Burlington was running 6.5 degrees warmer than normal. 

Though we do have a couple mild days coming up Sunday and Monday, today's weather marks a general change for the rest of the month. It won't necessarily be frigid, but the balmy air we had the past couple of days is a thing of the past, at least for now. 

If you were enjoying the mild conditions, cheer up.  The normal daily temperature has started rise withy the increasing sun angle. 

The normal average temperature on February 1 was 20.5 degrees. Today, that average is 23.5. A month from now, on March 17, the normal average is 32.5. It's gradually going to get harder and harder to see any extremely cold, wintry temperatures. 

We're heading toward "real" spring but it might take awhile.

Video:

Scenes from a February that look completely like March, including melting snow, mud, March winds and brooks breaking through the winter ice. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 



Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Strange Quick Storm Last Evening, Bit Of A Mess Coming Thursday

 That band of wintry weather that zipped through much of Vermont last evening didn't last long, and didn't leave much behind, but it made for quite a noisy half hour. 

As expected, the weather disturbance contained a bout of mixed precipitation. It didn't amount to much and just slickened up the roads a bit. But boy, was it noisy, at least in the Champlain Valley.

Winds really ramped up during the brief interluded of storminess around 6 p.m. Winds in Burlington momentarily gusted to 50 mph.  Combined with a blast of sleet, most of us certainly heard it. 

Between a brief storm last evening, and a somewhat messy 
one tomorrow, Wednesday was lovely for February.
Temperatures reached the low 40s, a little snow melted.
and the sun made a welcome appearance. 
A little video at the bottom of this post illustrates a bit how loud it was in St. Albans, Vermont. 

The whole thing blew through within a half hour, leaving behind little except patches of drizzle, with a few patches of freezing drizzle in the cold spots.
 

Today has been quiet, and actually quite nice by afternoon. The sun came out, and many of us made it up into the low 40s. Some of the snow melted. It was a lovely March day. But in February.

Surprisingly, at least for me, the high of 44 degrees in Burlington was the warmest temperature since January 6. Seems strange given the balmy winter we've had. 

However, we're gearing up for a new storm. This one on Thursday and Thursday night will have more precipitation with it, and will definitely last longer than Tuesday evening's little outburst. 

A winter weather advisory has been posted for the entire spine of the Green Mountains of Vermont and  the eastern slopes of those mountains, and in the Northeast Kingdom 

It'll be tricky tomorrow afternoon as to who gets freezing rain and who just gets a cold rain. The Champlain Valley will be open for business to a south wind, so temperatures there should be above freezing all day. I wouldn't worry too much about freezing rain there.  

Along and east of the Green Mountains, it will depend on whether those south winds can scour down to the surface. Where those south winds hit, you should be OK. In protected valleys, the freezing rain might continue all afternoon.

That's tricky for motorists. You might be in a spot with just plain rain. Then you drive downhill and all of a sudden you're skating on ice. 

Ice accumulation forecast for Thursday. Most of the problems
in Vermont will be along and east of the Green Mountains. 

By the time Thursday night rolls around, though, most if not all places in Vermont should have warmed up enough to see plain rain. 

It could get noisy again, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, where winds could gust to 40 mph again Thursday night. 

As a cold front comes through, gusty winds will come in from the west. 

In one respect, Friday might end up being similar to last Friday, in that temperatures will probably fall all day. 

 Unlike last Friday, cold is a relative term.  We'll start off in the 40s, go through the 30s and into the 20s later in the day. That's above zero, not below. No Arctic outbreak this time! 

We might see some snow showers and light accumulation Friday and Friday night, so watch out for that if you're driving. 

From this vantage point, it looks like it'll be a quiet weekend.  Saturday will be seasonably cold  with temperatures in the 20s during the day. Another warmup will start Sunday, with highs in the mid and upper 30s, much like last Sunday. 

Video: It's night but hard to see, but volume up.  A half-hour long interlude of high winds and sleet last evening in St. Albans made for a noisy dinner hour. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: