As Winter Sets Back In For Now, A Remarkably Springlike February So Far

This week, my yard in St. Albans looked as it should
around April 1 after a very warm February so far. 

 As I write this late this morning, it''s awful outside my St. Albans, Vermont window.

All morning, we've had freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and a little snow, and even a brief hail storm. 

However, until now, I have to stop and mention how remarkable this month has been so far. 

In Burlington, the snowfall this month as of yesterday was 0.4 inches. That's it. Not even  half an inch.  That's a full 11 inches below normal for this far into the month of February. Some more will come today, but it won't be a whopping amount. 

The least snow of any February in Burlington was 1.3 inches in 1957.  We do have several shots at receiving some snow before the end of the month, so I can't say that we'll set any record in that department. At least not yet.

So far this winter, Burlington had received just 37.7 inches of snow as of Thursday. That's a full 20 inches below normal for this point in the winter. 

We won't have a record low year for snow totals. That was set in the winter of 1912-13 with just 31.8 inches. We have an outside chance of scoring in the top 10 least snowy winters, though. In 10th place currently is 1937-38 with 45.1 inches. 

Also, despite the intense two-day cold wave on February 3 and 4, in which both days were roughly 20 degrees below normal, this February has turned out pretty warm so far.

As of yesterday, Burlington was running 6.5 degrees warmer than normal. 

Though we do have a couple mild days coming up Sunday and Monday, today's weather marks a general change for the rest of the month. It won't necessarily be frigid, but the balmy air we had the past couple of days is a thing of the past, at least for now. 

If you were enjoying the mild conditions, cheer up.  The normal daily temperature has started rise withy the increasing sun angle. 

The normal average temperature on February 1 was 20.5 degrees. Today, that average is 23.5. A month from now, on March 17, the normal average is 32.5. It's gradually going to get harder and harder to see any extremely cold, wintry temperatures. 

We're heading toward "real" spring but it might take awhile.

Video:

Scenes from a February that look completely like March, including melting snow, mud, March winds and brooks breaking through the winter ice. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Winter Not Over, But Brutal Stuff Gone For Quite Awhile In Vermont

A hazy, gloomy start to a winter workweek in St. Albans,
Vermont. After that Arctic blast Friday and Saturday,
we've settled back into that warm-ish, dreary 
weather pattern we've had most of this winter. 

As I often do on a Monday morning, I'm assessing the upcoming week's weather in Vermont.

On the bright side, there won't be nearly as much drama as we had Friday and Saturday with that intense cold snap.  

On the negative side for snow lovers, we've got some thawing coming up, mostly in the valleys. And the prospects for more snow are uncertain at best. It's that kind of winter. After the Arctic  blast, the winter of 2022-23 is up to its old warm and snow droughty tricks. 

The climb back out of the deep freeze in Burlington was impressive. The temperature steadily rose without a break from 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday night. It went from 15 below to 38 above during that time, a whopping 53 degree warmup within 36 hours.   (The temperature did go up another degree to 39 degrees later that night).

Several spots, including Burlington, managed to stay above freezing all night, too. 

That won't last, as we will see a brief return to winter today and tonight. But this will only be average cold for February. Nothing extreme in the least. 

We've had a lot of backward temperature trends lately, in which it gets colder at a time of day it should be getting warmer, and other moments where it's getting warmer when the time of day suggests it should be getting colder. 

We'll have another episode of that today. As the morning and early afternoon wears on, it will get colder and colder in most of Vermont when temperatures would normally be rising. This won't be a spectacular  temperature crash like we had on Friday. Instead, readings will slowly glide downward into the 20s by mid and late afternoon.

That sets us up for a chilly night tonight, but again, nothing breathtaking.  Most of us will probably wind up in the single numbers above zero.

THE REST OF THE WEEK

A small storm passing by will warm us right back up Tuesday and Tuesday night. It won't be that warm - in the 30s  - so it will be light rain, light snow or an unpleasant mix of glob and sludge.  Luckily we won't have much of it.

After a quiet and warm-ish Wednesday, 30s to near 40 again, we start seeing some huge question marks in the forecast. 

One not-so-strong storm Thursday night and early Friday will will pass nearby or just to our west. That will mean another unwelcome bout of rain, maybe some freezing rain, and even a little sleet or snow thrown in. Again, that's the winter we're having, isn't it!

The only decent shot of snow we have is if a follow-up storm rides up the coast or not on Saturday. The forecasting computer models vehemently disagree on what, if anything will come our way. (I'd almost like to see a physical fight between those computer models, but that probably won't happen. Sorry).

Some models do have a decent storm, some have a nothingburger. The models that do have a storm coming up the coast disagree on whether it will be snow or rain, or a mix. They also disagree on how much of anything we'll get.

At this point, if you want to know Saturday's weather, you're just as good doing a coin toss. Or just wait for updated forecasts later in the week. 

Worthless Snow Flurries/Brief Seasonable Cold In A Vermont Snow Drought

The sun sets amid snow flurries and seasonably cold
temperatures in St. Albans, Vermont on Tuesday. Yesterday
and last night were a brief return to more traditional winter
weather before milder air floods back in again. 

 St. Albans, Vermont was one of the snowiest places in Vermont on Tuesday.

That, however, is saying practically nothing. 

Most of Vermont enjoyed partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday. However, parts of northern Vermont, including much of the upper Champlain Valley, spent the day stuck under clouds and snow showers. 

Which was sort of nice, I guess, for people who are antsy about the snow drought afflicting Vermont in this warm winter. 

The snow showers in St. Albans accumulated to almost an inch of fluff, which by this morning has surely compacted to less than half an inch. This leaves us with about an inch of snow on the ground.

That's paltry to say the least, but more than a lot of places across the Green Mountain State.

Other than mountain peaks, the most snow on the round I saw in National Weather reports Tuesday was five inches in a high spot in Greensboro. Almost everybody else only had nothing to three inches, if they were lucky. 

This morning turned out to be seasonably cold, too.  It got down to at least 9 below in Island Pond, minus 1 in Morrisville, 8 below in Saranac Lake, New York. In Banana Belt Burlington, it got down to 11 above.

In other words, just a routine January morning in the North Country. 

However, after the extreme warmth that lasted since after Christmas, it felt downright frigid this morning. 

The warm weather will surge back in, though, giving us another snow to rain scenario Thursday afternoon and night, with some ice mixed in east of the Green Mountains.  After a seasonable weekend, it looks warm next week, too. 

I do see some uncertain signs that we might actually finally enter real winter at the end of this month. The jet stream over the Pacific Ocean which has been driving storm after storm into California looks like it wants to weaken. 

If that happens, the storminess in California would diminish, as would the flood of warm Pacific air from coast to coast in the U.S. This, in turn would allow cold Canadian air to push south into our neck of the woods. 

There's no guarantees on this, of course, but for people who enjoy winter, it's a glimmer of good news. For those of us who aren't as enthusiastic about winter, we got quite a break, so don't complain. 

Here's a video of the weak attempts of a winter comeback in St. Albans on Tuesday. As you can see, there were pretty fluffy snowflakes, but it wasn't exactly a blizzard. The video shows those thin winter clouds  couldn't exactly unleash a snowstorm. It was a pretty lame attempt at winter. 

Click on this link to view the video if you can't see the image below. Otherwise, click on this image to view the beauty of a lame winter. Slo-mo snowflake clips included:

Do Snow-Free Early Winters In Vermont Doom The Entire Season To Snow Drought?

Another gloomy, warm, drizzly and snow free morning
in St. Albans, Vermont today.  Early winters with a 
lack of snow often, but not always lead to 
lackluster total winter snowfall.

 So far, December, 2022 in Burlington, Vermont has yielded a whopping trace of snow. This after just three inches in November.  

There's no snow to speak of in the immediate forecast, though for all we know the second half of December could turn out blizzardy. There's just no way to know.

Nonetheless, I looked at past lame starts to the snow season through the Burlington, Vermont National Weather Service office's tremendous climate pages on their web site. 

It seems that more often than not, a slow start to winter means the overall snow season is lackluster. But that's certainly not always the case.

It really isn't a surprise that the November and Decembers in the winters that had the least snowfall in Burlington all had modest accumulations as well.

I also looked at the top 10 list of least snowy Decembers on record in Burlington. This actually involves 12 Decembers and winters since there were a couple of ties in the list.

Of the 12 least snowy Decembers nine of those entire winters ended up with below normal snowfall. Three of those winters were in the top 10 list for least snowy seasons.

One of them, 1992-93 was among the snowiest winters on record, even though that December was the fifth least snowy December in the listings.

That's not to say we know anything about how this winter will turn out.  It's just fun looking at the statistics in an attempt to read the tea leaves. 

December, 2022 is still young, so there's still plenty of time to get socked by a lot of snow.  Or a pattern change that could yield an overall snowy winter. But at this point, I'd judge the chances of a snowy upcoming winter as a little less than 50/50.

And those chances will probably decline if we fail to get snow for the rest of the month. 

Bright Side Of Vermont Snow Drought: Spring Flood Risk (So Far) Is Below Normal

Spring flooding in Cambridge, Vermont 2014. The
chances of significant spring flooding in Vermont are
lower than average this year, unless there is a very
radical shift in weather patterns over the next 3 months.

We definitely need the snow here in Vermont and we still don't have much in the forecast.  A dusting might fall today, and there might be something like an inch on Tuesday.  

Weather weenies are getting excited about a storm that is almost sure to develop off the East Coast next weekend. 

At this point it looks like it will go too far to the east to do much in Vermont, but there's still a chance it could swing more westward, giving us some snow. 

Don't hold your breath, though. 

The bright side to this winter's snow drought is that at last at this point, the chances of spring flooding look pretty low. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington release a spring flood outlook every other week in the winter, and released their latest one this past Thursday.  Let's just say at this point, there's no rush to buy sand bags to ward off any flooding. 

Experts look at the amount of water in the snow cover to seek clues as to how much runoff we could get in the spring. Snowfall is lacking.  Burlington is a foot behind normal for snowfall up to this point in the winter. Plus, there's isn't much water in thin snow cover. 

In the low elevations, the amount of "rain" in the snow cover as of Thursday is just 0.5 to one inch. 

At mid-elevations of between 1,000 and 2,500 feet of above sea level, the water equivalent is one to three inches, and at summits there's the equivalent of three to five inches of rain in the snow. 

That  below what you'd expect this time of year. 

Back in early January warm early winter weather meant there wasn't much ice on the rivers. However, it's been pretty cold lately, so the ice has been finally building up on the rivers.  

The cold air is going to continue so the river ice is going to keep spreading and thickening. Sometimes, this can cause some localized ice jams as the forming ice can block water flow.  If that happens, there won't be anything widespread.

But the thickening ice could cause larger ice jams in the spring if there's a sudden thaw and heavy rains that would break up the ice.  The chunks could then get stuck at bridge abutments or other obstacles and create ice jams. At this point, though, the risk doesn't seem higher than normal. 

By the way, current stream flows are at or below normal, and that's another factor in the spring flood outlook.

While the chances of spring flooding in Vermont are on the low side at this point, things could change.  February and March could prove to be excessively snowy months, which would bring a lot more potential water for spring runoff. Or March and April could be super rainy, which would also increase the flood risks.

Long range forecasts are iffy, but in that regard, I haven't seen any indications of a exceptionally wet or snowy regime for the next few months.  

Northern Vermont "Snow Hole" Storms Avoiding One Particular Area

My St. Albans Vermont driveway during a March, 2017
blizzard. So far this winter, I haven't had anything 
remotely like this and shoveling has been 
practically nonexistent. 

 Up here in St. Albans, not far from the Canadian border in northwestern Vermont, I've only shoveled snow off my driveway once this winter. 

Even then, I could have gotten away with not doing it. There wasn't much, and it melted within a few days. 

Yesterday, I was able to cut some brush on my property. There was only a dusting of snow on the ground. 

It's all evidence that so far this winter, snow is really avoiding northern Vermont, even while most other areas are having a relatively snowy winter so far. 

Much of the Northeast have had above normal snowfall this year. That's mostly driven by a big mid-December snowstorm that has since pretty much melted away.  The snow does not have much staying power this year in a warm weather pattern.

But at least these places got to play in the snow at times. Northern Vermont has practically gotten nothing.

According to the National Weather Service Eastern Region, the only places really with below normal snowfall are Maine, with slightly below snowfall, a small pocket of western New York around Syracuse that has so far managed to avoid lake effect storms, and northern Vermont. 

Snowfall so far in Burlington this season is 10.8 inches, roughly half of what normally falls by this time of year. 

Many other areas of the nation are seeing above normal snowfall so far.  That's especially true in the Plains and Midwest. Minneapolis, with 28 inches of snow so far this year, is 7.6 inches above normal. Even Oklahoma City has had 6.8 inches of snow, which is 4. 6 inches on the plus side. 

Since Burlington, Vermont is so far just 10 inches or so shy of normal, there's still plenty of time to catch up.  One big snowstorm or a couple mid-sized ones would bring that city close to normal. 

However, very little snow is expected now through Thursday.

A wild card comes Friday, when some sort of storm is expected to pass by.  We don't know how heavy the precipitation will be yet.  We don't yet know what exactly will fall from the sky in northwestern Vermont. Rain? Snow? Freezing rain? Sleet?  All of the above?

As it stands now, there won't be a whole lot of cold air around at the end of the week, so anything could happen. We do have a shot, however slim, of several inches of snow, though. 

Beyond Friday, we will stay in a rather stormy pattern, so there's the possibility of more snow. Or rain.  Hard to tell. 

There have been sharp reversals in snow fortunes after a slow start. In the winter of 1992-93, only 5.7 inches of snow had fallen through December 31.  The winter ended with a total snowfall of 116.9 inches, which is still the fifth snowiest winter on record. (A massive March blizzard in 1993 contributed to that total).

All this means I could easily still see my vacation from shoveling the driveway end at any time.  You'll hear my curse words if that happens. On the bright side, it's way, way too early for winter sports enthusiasts in northern Vermont to give up hope for this season.