Vermont Weather Stays Busy With Two Storms As Winter Systems Affect Much Of Nation

My snowy back yard in St. Albans, Vermont glistened in
the late afternoon sun Tuesday after snowfall earlier
in the day. It looks like we're in for at least two more
installments of snow over the next few days. 

 Those atmospheric rivers that have been bringing flooding rains and feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada range in California are having their effects on lots of other people coast to coast, too.  

Those California atmospheric rivers are spinning off one fast moving storm after another. 

 They eventually end up here in New England as quick hitting snow or mixed events, and that's what we will have in storm for a good chunk of this month, apparently.

The latest zipping storm is prompting winter weather advisories and other similar warnings from Kansas to New England. 

Spoiler: Vermont is getting this one, too, but at least we won't have the worst effects of it. 

The big losers, if you will, with this storm would be central and southwestern Pennsylvania, western Maryland and some small sections of West Virginia. Those areas are under a dreaded ice storm warning. 

Those areas tonight can expect a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation from freezing rain. That'll make travel practically  impossible, and probably be enough to cave in some trees and power lines, so it's a mess down there. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The quick hitting snow expected Thursday is only expected
to deposit another two to four inches of snow for most
of us in Vermont, with a little glaze of freezing 
drizzle at the end of it later Thursday. 

For us here in Vermont, we get a quick burst of snow midday Thursday .  It might come down pretty hard - as much as inch per hour. 

But the storm's fast motion means it won't last long. It'll probably only really snow for five or six hours from roughly mid morning to mid afternoon, give or take where you are in Vermont.  

Most places will get yet another modest snowfall, generally two to four inches.  

The Green Mountains will probably get a little more than that, especially on southeast facing slopes. Parts of the Champlain Valley might see just under two inches. 

The fast pace of the snow will make roads get ice covered and slick remarkably fast on Thursday. 

The twist on this storm is we're going to get a small taste of that ice in Pennsylvania.  The snow will end as freezing drizzle for a lot of us Thursday afternoon and evening. In Vermont, it'll amount to just a thin glaze, we don't have to worry at all about trees or power lines with this. 

Untreated roads and sidewalks will be a mess, as will the drive home from work Thursday afternoon and evening.  I can imagine the hospital emergency rooms could get busy with people suffering injuries and falls.

Pro tip: If you can get away with it, don't shovel your driveway or sidewalk, and if you're not driving, don't brush the snow off your car tomorrow afternoon after the snow tapers off.   If you shovel, the freezing drizzle would leave a slippery glaze of ice on pavement. If you clear the snow off your car, you'll eventually have to scrape the ice off the windshield.

Wait until the freezing drizzle ends later Thursday night or very early Friday. 

If you don't clear the snow, the freezing drizzle will form a thin crust on top of the snow, but it will still be easier to remove and you won't have to scrape ice or deal with as icy a driveway. 

SUNDAY STORM

After a couple of chilly but quiet days Friday and Saturday, we have another fast moving storm to deal with later Saturday night and Sunday. Though things could still change, the forecasts as of this morning have the storm zipping by just to the south of Vermont. 

It would also carry more moisture with it than what we're getting Thursday. So, there's the potential, anyway, of seeing a good six inches of new snow out of the weekend system. We'll keep you posted. 

No Surprise, Vermont January, 2023 Was Among Hottest On Record

Early in the month, it was so warm in St. Albans, Vermont
that daffodil shoots were coming up. Photo taken on Jan. 5

 The numbers are in for the weather in January, 2023 are in and it was, indeed the hottest first month of the year in parts of Vermont. 

In the rest of the state, it was close to the warmest.  

Montpelier had its hottest January on record, with a mean temperature of 29.1 degrees. 

That shattered the old record of 27.3 degrees in 1990. Usually, in the rare instances when a weather station breaks a record for warmest month, it's by no more than a few tenths of a degree. That Montpelier broke the record by 1.8 degrees is really impressive.

It looks like St. Johnsbury also broke its record for warmest January. The mean temperature for 2023 came in at 28.8 degrees, higher than any other year in January. 

Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were among numerous cities in the Northeast, including Portland, Maine and New York City, that had their warmest Januaries on record. 

Burlington only came in at fourth in the list of warmest January, with an average temperature of 29.2 degrees. That's two degrees shy of the all time warmest January of 1906. 

I'm not sure on this, but I think several areas of Vermont had their highest minimum temperature on record for January. The coldest night in Burlington was 7 degrees. Montpelier's lowest reading was 8 degrees. Rutland's lowest temperature was 9 above.

January, 2023 was an especially gloomy month in Vermont,
with frequent bouts of low clouds, fog, drizzle and 
light, wet snow. Photo taken in St. Albans, Jan. 6.

Nights were especially warm in Burlington and elsewhere during January. The average low temperature was 23.6, which is the second highest mean temperature for low minimums. 

There was not much of a range in temperature between low and high temperatures most days. 

The difference between the high and low averages was 11.2 degrees. Usually this time of year that range between daily highs and lows is about 16 or 17 degrees.  

That lack of range between low and high temperatures reflects something you surely noticed.

It was incredibly cloudy in January. I would rate 26 days in Burlington and vicinity during January as overcast, or overcast with a very limited number of breaks. 

When it's cloudy, high temperatures are usually a little lower than you'd expect and low temperatures are a little warmer than they would be if was clear. 

All those clouds provided plenty of precipitation. Rain and melted snow amounted to 3.40 inches in Burlington. This fell just outside the top 10 list of wettest Januaries in Burlington. Number 10 on the list had 3.46 inches. 

By the end of the January, it was at least looking a lot
more wintry.  True winter weather didn't really hit, though,
until January 30, too late to prevent January, 2023
from becoming one of the warmest on record in Vermont.

Other areas of Vermont were pretty wet, too. St. Johnsbury had 4.07 inches of precipitation, against a normal of 2.68 inches for the month.

 Rutland, with 3.63 inches of precipitation, about an inch above normal. Montpelier was closer to normal with 2.49 inches, less than a quarter inch above normal.

After a nearly snow-free beginning, snowfall picked up, and most places ended up within the range of normal snowfall for the year. St. Johnsbury ended up with 20 inches of snow, which was actually 0.1 inches above normal.

Looking out to February, we know we're starting the month with intense Arctic cold, at least on Friday and Saturday. 

But overall, the outlook for the month is for above normal temperatures again. Do note that long range forecasts are iffy. So take the forecast for the entire month with a bit of a grain of salt. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Somewhat Lackluster, But Still Worth Taking Seriously

National Weather Service office in South Burlington issue
this updated snow forecast map Thursday afternoon
Snow totals look pretty lame with this system in 
southwestern Vermont, but at least the mountains
get something. Everything in yellow gets at least
 six inches of snow

 As of 4 p.m.this Thursday afternoon, snow had entered southwestern Vermont as expected and was working its way northeastward. All of Vermont should be in the snow within the next three hours or so. It's moving northward pretty fast. 

It looks like the main show with this system will be brief, mainly between this evening and a couple hours after midnight. That's when most of the storm's accumulation will hit.

It's a good evening to stay in and binge watch Netflix or something, as travel won't be worth it in the heaviest dump of snow with this storm.  

Temperatures hovered in the low 30s across Vermont all day. It was another gloomy, but rather warm day.  It won't cool off much tonight during the snow, so this still looks like a heavy, wet mess. I'm still thinking that low elevations of southern Vermont will have a mix out of this, so they might only get a couple inches total. 

Even in the Champlain Valley, relatively warm temperatures will probably keep snow totals in the four inch or so range. I could be surprised and see more, but that's the thinking right now. 

Forecasters still think there might be a lull in the snow or mix during the pre-dawn hours Friday before snow redevelops. It won't snow super hard, though a couple to a few inches will probably come down Friday morning and early afternoon. Especially in the mountains and north. 

Still, driving won't be all that great, so stay off the roads if you can. (My generous employer has already told me I can work from home tomorrow instead of commuting a half hour on Interstate 89 in the snow with all the idiots on the road who I swear are desperate to cause dramatic car crashes in winter weather). 

In January, snowfalls in Vermont tend to be dry and powdery. After all, it's the coldest month of the year. We are also in what is normally the coldest week or two of the year. At least on average. But this snow will be on the wet side. So, if you have a heart condition or are older, you might want slip some cash to a nice young brawny teenager to shovel your driveway.

Power outages are likely, but it still looks like they will be relatively few and far between. 

The good news is the mountains, including the ski areas, should see a solid six to eight inches of snow out of this. That's not huge, but given the kind of winter we've had so far this year, that is a blessing. 

Meteorologists are still tracking two more potential storms, one on Sunday night and Monday, the other Wednesday or Wednesday night. Since it's a few days before either storm would affect us, there's still a lot of questions about how much snow we will get here in Vermont and whether any of it will change to a mix, or ice or rain. It's that kind of month. 

It'll be interesting to see to what extent we erase some of our snow deficit this winter. As of Wednesday, Burlington has had 20.7 inches of snow this winter. That's 17.2 inches below normal. I doubt we'll get back up to normal within a week, but we still have a possibility of getting closer. 

Also, latest long range forecasts continue to advertise a colder weather pattern for most of the Lower 48 starting soon. But the coldest weather would be to our west. If those extended forecasts are anywhere close to accurate, in a few days we'll go from warmer than normal for January to more or less average. 

If you are itching for a spell of 20 below Arctic frigid cold, you're sick. You will also be sorely disappointed, at least until the opening days of February. However, there's no telling what that month will bring. 

Video: Sights And Sounds From Vermont's First Snowfall Of The Season

Vermont's first snowfall of the season ended in a gloomy note
as this still from the video I took shows. There's some 
subtle beauty in the darkness of November, though

After a truly bizarre, super warm start to November in Vermont, we finally had a bit of normalcy in the Green Mountain State on Wednesday.  

As we've been reporting on, the first real snowfall of the season came through Vermont.  

It was a completely normal storm for this time of year, with about the amount of snow you'd expect from a snowfall this time of year. This first snowfall came at about the average time of year.

This being November,  the weather was also super typical for Vermont as the bulk of the snow tapered off in the afternoon.

November is famous for being gloomy, dark, foggy and slushy, as temperatures during the day are often a little above freezing. We had all of those things Wednesday. It sounds awful, but there is a kind of quiet beauty to that half melted snow, the gray skies, the dark trees, the mist and the sprinkles. 

As I usually do, I made a quick video of our journey through the first snow of the season. Yes, there will be plenty more snowfalls, but the first one is a little special.

So, click on this link if you don't see the video image below. If you do see that video image below, click on that. 

National Weather Service: Great Forecast, Says The Maps

 A tale of two maps. 

First one: What the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was forecasting on Friday for the just -completed snowstorm:

Next map. What actually happened. A really good forecast. My thoughts below the second map: 

You can tell by the maps what a degree or two difference can do to a forecast, though.

The forecasts were great, but somewhat less snow than predicted fell in the Northeast Kingdom and in northeastern New York.  In both places, but the Northeast Kingdom in particular, temperatures held just  a couple degrees higher than many people forecast.

The track of the storm was essentially up the Connecticut River Valley. That let in just enough warm air to keep things Saturday in most of the Northeast Kingdom rain or a rain/snow mixture. The Northeast Kingdom still got snow, but perhaps two or three inches less than forecast.

Still, people in the Northeast Kingdom shouldn't feel too bad. There was snow on the ground there before this storm hit, and they squeaked out a couple to a few inches more this weekend.

It was still snowing lightly there Sunday afternoon.  Plus, if anybody gets snow from some weak systems this coming week, it will probably include the northeastern part of Vermont. 

Snow cover through that area, and most of Vermont, is still below normal for this time of year. But at least it's no longer pathetic. 

Northern Vermont "Snow Hole" Storms Avoiding One Particular Area

My St. Albans Vermont driveway during a March, 2017
blizzard. So far this winter, I haven't had anything 
remotely like this and shoveling has been 
practically nonexistent. 

 Up here in St. Albans, not far from the Canadian border in northwestern Vermont, I've only shoveled snow off my driveway once this winter. 

Even then, I could have gotten away with not doing it. There wasn't much, and it melted within a few days. 

Yesterday, I was able to cut some brush on my property. There was only a dusting of snow on the ground. 

It's all evidence that so far this winter, snow is really avoiding northern Vermont, even while most other areas are having a relatively snowy winter so far. 

Much of the Northeast have had above normal snowfall this year. That's mostly driven by a big mid-December snowstorm that has since pretty much melted away.  The snow does not have much staying power this year in a warm weather pattern.

But at least these places got to play in the snow at times. Northern Vermont has practically gotten nothing.

According to the National Weather Service Eastern Region, the only places really with below normal snowfall are Maine, with slightly below snowfall, a small pocket of western New York around Syracuse that has so far managed to avoid lake effect storms, and northern Vermont. 

Snowfall so far in Burlington this season is 10.8 inches, roughly half of what normally falls by this time of year. 

Many other areas of the nation are seeing above normal snowfall so far.  That's especially true in the Plains and Midwest. Minneapolis, with 28 inches of snow so far this year, is 7.6 inches above normal. Even Oklahoma City has had 6.8 inches of snow, which is 4. 6 inches on the plus side. 

Since Burlington, Vermont is so far just 10 inches or so shy of normal, there's still plenty of time to catch up.  One big snowstorm or a couple mid-sized ones would bring that city close to normal. 

However, very little snow is expected now through Thursday.

A wild card comes Friday, when some sort of storm is expected to pass by.  We don't know how heavy the precipitation will be yet.  We don't yet know what exactly will fall from the sky in northwestern Vermont. Rain? Snow? Freezing rain? Sleet?  All of the above?

As it stands now, there won't be a whole lot of cold air around at the end of the week, so anything could happen. We do have a shot, however slim, of several inches of snow, though. 

Beyond Friday, we will stay in a rather stormy pattern, so there's the possibility of more snow. Or rain.  Hard to tell. 

There have been sharp reversals in snow fortunes after a slow start. In the winter of 1992-93, only 5.7 inches of snow had fallen through December 31.  The winter ended with a total snowfall of 116.9 inches, which is still the fifth snowiest winter on record. (A massive March blizzard in 1993 contributed to that total).

All this means I could easily still see my vacation from shoveling the driveway end at any time.  You'll hear my curse words if that happens. On the bright side, it's way, way too early for winter sports enthusiasts in northern Vermont to give up hope for this season.