Monday, December 28, 2020

Northern Vermont "Snow Hole" Storms Avoiding One Particular Area

My St. Albans Vermont driveway during a March, 2017
blizzard. So far this winter, I haven't had anything 
remotely like this and shoveling has been 
practically nonexistent. 
 Up here in St. Albans, not far from the Canadian border in northwestern Vermont, I've only shoveled snow off my driveway once this winter. 

Even then, I could have gotten away with not doing it. There wasn't much, and it melted within a few days. 

Yesterday, I was able to cut some brush on my property. There was only a dusting of snow on the ground. 

It's all evidence that so far this winter, snow is really avoiding northern Vermont, even while most other areas are having a relatively snowy winter so far. 

Much of the Northeast have had above normal snowfall this year. That's mostly driven by a big mid-December snowstorm that has since pretty much melted away.  The snow does not have much staying power this year in a warm weather pattern.

But at least these places got to play in the snow at times. Northern Vermont has practically gotten nothing.

According to the National Weather Service Eastern Region, the only places really with below normal snowfall are Maine, with slightly below snowfall, a small pocket of western New York around Syracuse that has so far managed to avoid lake effect storms, and northern Vermont. 

Snowfall so far in Burlington this season is 10.8 inches, roughly half of what normally falls by this time of year. 

Many other areas of the nation are seeing above normal snowfall so far.  That's especially true in the Plains and Midwest. Minneapolis, with 28 inches of snow so far this year, is 7.6 inches above normal. Even Oklahoma City has had 6.8 inches of snow, which is 4. 6 inches on the plus side. 

Since Burlington, Vermont is so far just 10 inches or so shy of normal, there's still plenty of time to catch up.  One big snowstorm or a couple mid-sized ones would bring that city close to normal. 

However, very little snow is expected now through Thursday.

A wild card comes Friday, when some sort of storm is expected to pass by.  We don't know how heavy the precipitation will be yet.  We don't yet know what exactly will fall from the sky in northwestern Vermont. Rain? Snow? Freezing rain? Sleet?  All of the above?

As it stands now, there won't be a whole lot of cold air around at the end of the week, so anything could happen. We do have a shot, however slim, of several inches of snow, though. 

Beyond Friday, we will stay in a rather stormy pattern, so there's the possibility of more snow. Or rain.  Hard to tell. 

There have been sharp reversals in snow fortunes after a slow start. In the winter of 1992-93, only 5.7 inches of snow had fallen through December 31.  The winter ended with a total snowfall of 116.9 inches, which is still the fifth snowiest winter on record. (A massive March blizzard in 1993 contributed to that total).

All this means I could easily still see my vacation from shoveling the driveway end at any time.  You'll hear my curse words if that happens. On the bright side, it's way, way too early for winter sports enthusiasts in northern Vermont to give up hope for this season. 

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