Wednesday Evening Update: Some Surprise Snow; Bad Storm Still Due

A bit more snow that expected flew through the air in
St. Albans, Vermont this afternoon. It's a precursor
to the warm storm coming which will bring some 
flooding and strong winds to the region

 A weak warm front, the first sort of salvo of that big storm that's due in the Northeast tomorrow and Christmas Day, has over performed a bit.  

The warm front has caused a little more lift in the atmosphere than I think many forecasters thought, so an area of mostly light snow was passing through northern and parts of central Vermont this afternoon.

Be careful on the roads, there are slick spots because of this snow. Additionally, the wind is beginning to pick up, so there might be a little blowing and drifting snow to make things even a little more interesting.

The snow won't amount to too much, maybe a dusting to two inches, and will end this evening. 

This afternoon's snow announced the start of the warm air that's going to flow into Vermont ahead of and with this storm. 

Temperatures won't fall much overnight. It might even get a little warmer with time overnight in the Champlain Valley. South winds will get stronger and gusty overnight as well. 

I'll have a full update on the meat of the storm with tomorrow morning's update. 

But here's a couple things I've noticed. Forecasts bring the Otter Creek in Center Rutland to major flood status late on Christmas Day. Flood stage is eight feet, the forecast is for 13.1 feet and the record crest is 17.2 feet. So this will be worse than just field flooding if this comes to pass. 

Even in northern Vermont, where there isn't nearly as much snow to melt, the Winooski River at Essex Junction is forecast to reach minor flood status, and be just short of moderate flood level.  The Mad River at Moretown is forecast to go to moderate flood stage and be just shy of major flood status. 

So basically, take the flood threat seriously with this storm. It won't be the worst flood Vermont has ever experienced, but it doesn't take all that much to be dangerous.