Frigid Northern Vermont Mostly Avoiding Nor'easter. UPDATE: Not So Fast!

UPDATE 5 p.m. Tuesday: 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
its snow forecast for tomorrow and Thursday for the
upcoming nor'easter. It looks like six or more inches
might fall from Route 4 southward, with measureable
snow possible all the way to the Canadian border.

Well, surprise, surprise. Local meteorologists have spent the day getting new, better computer guidance, and that well advertised nor'easter seems as if it will have a pretty decent effect on much of Vermont after all. 

Though things are still subject to change, places along and south of Route 2 should expect to get some snow out of this. And by the time you get to far southern Vermont, it'll actually be quite a storm. 

Here's what changed: Now that the weather disturbance that will cause this storm has moved well inland from the Pacific Ocean, the computer models can capture much better data from the atmosphere around this thing. 

This new information shows that the center of the storm's circulation aloft will be more organized, and slower to weaken again once near or off the coast. 

That will help to pull more moisture further inland than originally thought, so more snow can work its way into Vermont.

The whole shebang will be placed a little further north than previously thought, too, so that will spread the snow more to the north.

Current forecasts still vary, but the vaguely general consensus seems to be 8 to 12 inches in the southernmost two counties of Vermont, around six inches up to Route 4; two to six inches between Routes 4 and 6 and two inches or less north of Route 2, with very little near the Canadian border. 

I have seen a couple forecasts of up to two feet in far southern Vermont, but those are outliers and I've decided to dismiss them, at least for now. 

Note that if the trends in the forecast continue northward, these totals might go up.  However, now that the computer models have better samples and the fact there's less time before the onset of the snow on Wednesday, there might not be huge further shifts.

We'll see in the morning whether the computer models make me a liar again regarding the above paragraph. 

They are still expecting quite a snowstorm in much of southern New England, southern New York and areas of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland a bit inland from the coast. Heavy wet snow, mixed precipitation and strong winds will probably make the Interstate 95 corridor a challenge tomorrow. 

Coastal flooding is likely, too, from Maryland to New England

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

You sure knew it when a second cold front crashed into Vermont last evening. Northwest winds gusting over 30 mph made my St. Albans, Vermont house shudder as I shuddered to think how cold it would be outside when I woke up this morning. 

Wind chills from a strong Arctic high pressure system were down in the single numbers and teens this morning. Actual temperatures this morning were near 20 and will barely budge despite the first sunny weather we've seen November 29.

By tomorrow morning, temperatures in much of Vermont will be down within a few degrees either side of zero. 

The winter cold and the sun are big clues as to what will happen with that highly advertised nor'easter that's about to strike much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast.

One opinion on how much snow the upcoming nor'easter
will bring. Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest
New Jersey could see up to two feet of snow from this.
Questions remain as to how far north the snow will
reach into Vermont. 

The frigid air is a sign that Arctic high in Quebec is strong, helping to shunt the storm south of us. The sun is a sign that this cold air is dry. That means any moisture from the storm that tries to work its way north will probably evaporate en route, robbing the Green Mountain State of any real snowfall.

Oh, sure far southern Vermont still looks as if it's close enough to perhaps get a few inches of snow out of this.  It's possible that area could still get a nice big dump. Some computer models have moved the heavy snow northwestward into the southern Green Mountains, but others keep the snow there pretty light. Time will tell.

Current forecasts have flurries reaching as far north as the Canadian border. Other models stop the flakes at about Rutland.  The storm's cloud shield will overspread the entire state on Wednesday, dimming or blocking out the sun and ensure it stays really cold for a few days. 

For now at least,  Vermont will probably mostly be a bystander to this event.  At least forecasting this storm is relatively easy for us. 

I feel no envy for any meteorologists near Philadelphia, New Jersey, the New York metro area and Long Island. 

Right along the coast, it seems like enough warm air would intrude to cause mix precipitation or even a period of cold rain. 

Covid era outdoor dining in New York City in the coming days?
Alas, the city has stopped outdoor dining to
make way for the snow plows. 

There will be a distance of maybe just a dozen miles between an icky wet mess of slush and ice and deep powdery snow.  Where that sets up is anybody's guess.  

If any given meteorologist is off by just five miles in their predictions of where the snow and mix line sets up, their forecast will end up being totally wrong.

It's really impossible to forecast that accurately, so some people in this highly populated area are going to be surprised one way or another. 

All those millions of people from Roanoke, Virginia to Boston, Massachusetts can expect a very disruptive storm.  Needless to say, travel is not recommended in these areas tomorrow and Thursday. 

In New York City, where more than six inches of snow is currently forecast, the hurting dining industry is receiving a double whammy.  The state has reimposed a ban on indoor dining due to a spike in Covid. Brave restauranteurs have continued outdoor dining despite the chill. But now that's banned for now to make room for the snow plows. 

There is still time for a shift in the storm's forecast strength and path, so adjustments are going to happen. 

Back here in Vermont, our spell of midwinter cold will ease by the weekend, as we get back up into the 30s in the daytime.