Fine Tuning The Nor'easter Forecast On A Frigid Wednesday Morning

Here's the going forecast from the National Weather
Service. The area in yellow, roughly from Route 4
south, can expect six or more inches of snow.

 As expected, temperatures are within a few degrees of zero as we await a nor'easter that still has us asking a lot of questions as to how much snow will come with this. 

Overnight, the guidance on this storm seems to have stabilized somewhat. That was expected as better data comes in as the storm comes nearer.

Still, there are no guarantees as to how far north the snow will make it in Vermont. Also, though we know for sure it will snow in southern Vermont, we don't know if a band of the heaviest snowfall will reach the Green Mountain State. 

As it stands this morning, the National Weather Service has the four southern Vermont counties under a winter storm warning. Similar to forecasts last night, six inches or more of snow seems a good bet from Route 4 southward. 

The nor'easter is still expected to produce a band of very heavy snow from central and eastern Pennsylvania, the lower Hudson Valley of New York and on into southern New England.  If that heavy band sneak north a bit more than forecast, we could be looking at a good 12 to 24 inches in the southern tip of Vermont.

If that band doesn't get that far north, six to 10 inches would be more like it there. 

Then, there's still the question of how much snow goes north of Route 4, and how close to the Canadian border it gets.

The storm will move north along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, and then tend to take a turn eastward south of New England, then out to sea later tonight and tomorrow. 

Overview of expected accumulation in the Northeast.
Darkest orange, mostly in Pennsylvania, indicates an
expected 18 to 24 inches. The next shade down in 
orange, extending well into southern New England,
depicts an expectation of 12-18 inche. 

Upper level support for the storm will be to the northwest of the coastal low, which can help encourage snow to move north.

However, that frigid high pressure system in Quebec is feeding very dry air into northern New England. 

As the snow moves north through Vermont tonight, it will evaporate in the atmosphere because of the dry air. From there, it will be a battle between  moisture working north and dry air trying to bat that moisture to the south again 

The going forecast still has one to five inches of snow between Route 4 and Route 2, with the most accumulation the more south you go. 

It might or might not snow in the northwest corner of Vermont late tonight and tomorrow morning. If it does it won't amount to much.  That is, if the moist air moving north doesn't surprisingly overwhelm the dry stuff from Quebec.

The timing is such that it will be an uneventful day in Vermont, with snow not starting in the south until evening. It'll then slowly move north overnight 

The morning commute in far southern Vermont could be very tricky, because at that point, the snow will be coming down the hardest.  It could go at an inch or more per hour at times, which is hard for the plows to keep up with.

A huge area of the Northeast (in pink) is
under a winter storm warning today 
and/or Thursday.

Any and all snow that falls in Vermont will be powdery, rather than wet and heavy. 

This is good, because power failures shouldn't be an issue, and powdery snow is easier to shovel than the "wet cement" storms we get when the temperature is near 32 degrees.

It's frustrating to have question marks regarding an upcoming winter storm, but like it or not, that's how it always is. The slightest shift in the path of a storm, or its upper air support, can cause big changes on the ground. 

Rather than focus on specific amounts, it's always best to broad brush it in your head. If you're under a winter storm warning, expect some difficult travel and know you will be shoveling snow. 

The main story with this nor'easter still will affect points south of here. Parts of Pennsylvania and maybe parts of the Catskills in New York could see two feet of snow. 

It'll all come down at once, essentially, which is difficult to overcome. Some computer models have 18 inches of snow falling within six hours in parts of Pennsylvania.