Yes, Big Nor'easter Looms, But Probably Not For Northern Vermont

Bare ground and remarkably green grass for mid-
December in my St. Albans, Vermont yard.

This Sunday morning is yet another day in December 2020 in which this winter feels like it's been canceled. 

When I took the dogs out this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, the thin cover of snow we accumulated earlier in the week was long gone. The temperature was 51 degrees. Spring was in the air. 

For the moment at least.

This hesitant season will go back into winter pretty much right away. We will have true winter temperatures by midweek. It'll be the coldest its been in Vermont since mid-February, and the colder hollows of the state will see their first subzero readings of the season.

If you think this will all translate into a winter wonderland, deep in snow, think again. Especially if you live in the northern half of Vermont. 

This is a strong chance of a nor'easter midweek that will probably dump a deep snow cover somewhere in New England.  It's just the chances of that happening dwindle pretty substantially the further north and west you go.

Here's the overall setup:

A cold front is coming though late this morning. Temperatures will slowly settle back through the 40s this afternoon amid cloudy skies but almost no precipitation. 

Waves of progressively colder air will keep coming in through Monday into Tuesday.  These will bring some snow showers, which might whiten the ground a bit but really not amount to much. 

Meanwhile, it was snowing in Oklahoma this morning.  This seems like an irrelevant fact, but is a key reason why we in northern Vermont are unlikely to share in the bounty of the midweek nor'easter.

Here's why: The storm in Oklahoma will dart toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, never getting very strong until then. Once off the coast, though, this storm will bomb out explosively, eventually become a monster, huge  storm way up by Labrador.   

Things did look briefly wintry in my yard this past 
Wednesday, but things quickly warmed up. We
are not expected much snow in northern Vermont this
week, but it will turn quite cold

The eventual Labrador storm will be big enough to steer a frigid, dry area of high pressure into Quebec.  This will feed cold air into the Northeast, making it plenty cold enough for snow in the path of the nor'easter. 

However, as it looks now, this high pressure will squash the nor'easter to the south, so it won't come north enough to get most of Vermont. Also, the high pressure will feed dry air into the region, drying up any precipitation that wants to work north. 

Far southern Vermont is still in play with this nor'easter, and stands the chance of getting a pretty good dump, we'll see. The more you go north, the less chance of any real snow. 

Up north, it will be raw, cloudy and frigid mid week. Many places won't get out of the teens for highs, and lows will be in the single numbers. 

There's still a chance of a surprise shift to the north with the expected nor'easter, but so far, I'm not holding my breath. 

The cold spell will be short lived and we'll probably be back to near normal temperatures by next weekend. That would bring us highs in the low 30s by then.