Evening Nor'easter Update: Vermont Snow STILL Uncertain; Having A Snow Blast South

Just one of many snow prediction maps floating around
out there. Talk about a wide range in Vermont. This 
particular map forecasts 0.2 inches of new snow around 
Alburgh, in the northwest tip of the state, to about
16 inches in the mountains just east of Bennington.
High bust potential on these forecasts.

Figured I'd do a quick evening  update regarding the nor'easter and how it will affect us here in Vermont.   

Most people seem to be going with a persistence forecast since this morning. Meaning they're still calling for heavy snow south, and next to nothing north. 

There remains several wrinkles in this forecast, so I'm all but guaranteeing some busted forecasts.

It looks like there will be a sharp cutoff between a LOT of snow somewhere south and pretty much nothing north.  It's just impossible to place where all this will happen. 

A band of very heavy snow in Pennsylvania late this afternoon will pivot into the Hudson Valley of New York and southern and central New England. Under this band, there could be up to 20 inches of snow from this, most of it coming down in 12 hours or less.

Will this band of super heavy snow make it into far southern Vermont? If so, how far into Vermont.  If it does make it, somebody is going to get nailed.  Here's an example of the challenge:  One set of data suggests Springfield, Vermont will receive somewhere between two and 26 inches of snow overnight and tomorrow morning. Not exactly narrowed down, huh?

In our neck of the woods, this storm reminds me of a storm on Christmas Day, 2002. A narrow band of snow like the one forecast for tonight set up over Rutland County.  I was there that day, and about 18 inches of snow piled up in just five hours. Go north to Middlebury, and only two or three inches of snow fell there. 

For now, the we stick to persistence.  The National Weather Service is still going for six to 12 inches in the southern four counties of Vermont, with locally higher amounts near the Massachusetts border.

Some forecasting models have absolutely no snow at the Canadian border, others give that area a dusting. 

As mentioned yesterday, snow trying to work north will encounter dry air and will tend to evaporate as it starts falling from the clouds. 

That will yield to some weird images if you look at weather radar overnight. Radar is already falsely showing snow falling in the southern half of Vermont. Later, radar will show snow falling statewide. But most of that will actually be snow falling from clouds, but evaporating well before reaching the ground .