Vermont's Active June Weather: Strong, Winds, Strong Storms, Strong Heat

Thunderstorms over South Burlington, Vermont 
Thursday afternoon created this moody scene.
Things will remain active with oddly strong, 
gusty winds this morning, a possible weird
thunderstorm outbreak before dawn Sunday,
then a short, but intense heat wave. in Vermont

 After the severe thunderstorm watch was lifted last evening, a couple more strong, but not severe storms flared up around the region as our late solstice season dusk came Thursday evening. 

Most of that activity was in southern and eastern Chittenden County and in Rutland County. 

Though there was some gusty winds, lightning and torrential downpours with those storms, there's no reports of any real damage. 

The thunderstorms are long gone, but the risk of wind damage hasn't.

TODAY

In the winter, when a cold front comes through northern New England, there's often a period of strong west winds, often gusting to 45 to 50 mph. 

 This is usually not that big a deal, as leafless, frozen trees don't bend much in the wind. Also, if you're not crazy, you're not out in a little boat on Lake Champlain during these January or February wind storms. 

Summer cold fronts almost never have these mini-wind storms with them. 

This morning, though, the cold front that went through weirdly does have that batch of 40 to 50 mph gusts behind it. This kind of situation almost never happens in June, but it's 2025, so everything has to be weird.

The wind was rising at dawn today and it should be quite a gusty morning and maybe early afternoon across Vermont and surrounding areas. 

A wind advisory is in effect for most of Vermont, along much of the rest of New England and northeastern New York.  Gusts could reach to 40 or even 50 mph for a time today. 

Such winds have a greater impact than they would in the winter, Leaves on trees act like little sails, so the leaves and wind pull trees laterally. Enough sometime to knock them over or pull branches off. So we might be seeing  that and maybe some scattered power outages this morning and early afternoon. 

Stay off the lakes during this wind, especially on broad Lake Champlain. These types of gusts would really put boats, kayaks and canoes in real trouble. Although it's been warm lately, lake water temperatures aren't exactly like bathwater. Still chilly.. Hypothermia is a risk if you get dumped. Plus trying to swim through those big waves is a challenge to say the least.

Showers, especially widespread in northern Vermont this morning, will tend to diminish and disappear in favor of sunshine and lessening winds this afternoon.

SATURDAY: 

Still looking like a rare nice one for Vermont. After a blessedly comfortable sleeping night tonight, sunshine during the day would boost Saturday afternoon  temperatures to near 80 degrees. Winds will be light, so Saturday will be the day to take your boat or kayak out onto the lake.  Humidity levels will also be quite reasonable. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING

There's still debate as to whether - well, whatever you want to call it -  a ridge runner, or mesoscale convective system if you're scientific - will give us just give us some light showers or a very stormy late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

In any event, a cluster of storms shouldbe heading east across the Great Lakes Saturday and then southeast into northern New York and maybe New England overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.  Though still uncertain, it sounds like this might come at us as a noisy group of thunderstorms with locally torrential rain.

Worst case scenario is a few of these could be severe with damaging winds and hail.  This would be yet another weird moment. Usually, when there is severe storms they are least likely in the predawn hours. Severe thunderstorms are normally  creatures of the afternoon and evening. 

For now, some rain is a good bet later Saturday night and early Sunday. But just to be safe, I'd secure outdoor furniture again  Saturday evening and keep a weather radio handy that would wake you up early Sunday in case dangerous storms are heading our way. 

I''ll update all this tomorrow as well,

THE HEAT

The showers and storms will be riding along a strong warm front that will lift north of us during the day Sunday. Which opens the door to our well-advertised big hot spell. Which will probably break some record highs by Monday.

How hot it gets Sunday depends upon how fast the showers and clouds clear out on Sunday. If they disappear early enough in the day,  some places could hit 90 degrees. But for now, it looks like most of us will see temperatures in the 80s with a lot of humidity. 

After a stuffy, uncomfortable night, Monday arrives and hoo-boy!

Pretty much everywhere except the very high elevations in Vermont should be above 90 degrees Monday and records will likely fall. 

The National Weather Service this morning was going with a possible high temperature of 98 degrees in Burlington Monday. That would be the second hottest June day on record. (The only hotter one would be the 100 degrees on June 19, 1995).

The record high of 90 degrees in Montpelier looks like it's going to be toast, since the predicted high Monday there is 95 degrees.

This will be accompanied by high humidity, so the heat index is going to be above 100 degree in much of Vermont.  This combination of heat and humidity will make this one of the most dangerous heat days we've seen in quite some time. 

Tuesday will be almost as hot, or just as hot in southern Vermont. A cold front will be coming in from the north, but likely too late to cool us off Tuesday. Things will start to get better Tuesday night. 

People who have pre-existing health problems, very young children and pregnant people are most susceptible to the dangers of heat. So are athletes and outdoor workers.  Monday and probably Tuesday are the wrong days to run for miles, or install that new roof or asphalt driveway. 

BEYOND TUESDAY

Many cold fronts that end big heat waves are often accompanied by lots of severe thunderstorms. That looks unlikely in this case. Other than the heat, atmospheric conditions don't look ripe for many storms. There could some thunderstorms, maybe even a severe one or two, But so far, the blessed cold front coming in later Tuesday looks pretty tame.  

And SO welcome. By Wednesday, temperatures will be back down to something pretty normal for mid June. Humidity levels will have crashed down to comfortable levels on Wednesday, too. 

We might even get a sunny day out of this, but the cold front might stall not too far to the south. If that happens, we might end up with a showery, possibly muggy regime later next week.  

Brace Yourself, Vermont: You're REALLY About To Get Slapped By Winter. Also, Not Just Vermont

 Like I noted in a post Sunday morning, it's been an incredibly warm year in Vermont.

A weather map depicting what forecasters think will
be happening Thursday morning. A strong Alberta
clipper is seen here spreading wind and snow
across the Northeast, while a blast of Arctic air
begins to rush southward into the eastern
half of the United States. 

That party is over. 

The chilly winds and snow showers, and itty bits of lake effect stuff the Green Mountain State experienced over the weekend was just a tiny morsel of what's to come.

If you love wind chills below zero, icebox temperatures, lots of wind and bursts of snow blasting into your face, this will be your week. And this could last awhile. 

Today and tomorrow, we'll muddle through with sort of chilly weather for this time of year, but nothing that out of the ordinary.  The sky will probably yield a few more snowflakes from time to time, but nothing major. 

We already had some snow in much of Vermont overnight. My place in St. Albans had 1.1 inches of surprise snow overnight.

Roads early this morning were slick in spots, and as of 7 a.m it was definitely still snowing noticeably in the northern Green Mountains and western slopes. Accumulations won't amount to all that much today, but the dustings in the mountains will continue to slowly add up. 

Tomorrow, it's rinse and repeat. Some of us might get another  dusting, a lucky few maybe an inch or two. And the northern mountains could collect up to four or five inches of fluff.

WINTER SLAMS

The cold drama starts Wednesday. A strong Alberta clipper will come at us from the west and northwest and pass through the region Thursday. 

Alberta clippers, to refresh your memory, are storms that form in or near Alberta, Canada and head southeastward toward us. They can be windy storms, but they they don't usually have all that much moisture to work with.  

They usually bring cold winds and more often than not, less than four inches of snow. 

This particular Alberta clipper will help spread frigid air through almost all of the eastern half of the nation, creating southern freezes, subzero cold in the upper Midwest, more epic lake effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes, and general winter awfulness and cold winds everywhere in the East.

An early guesstimate from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington regarding how much snow
will fall Wednesday and Thursday. It's definitely
subject to change, and I suspect this map might
underestimate how much snow might all in 
the northern and central Green Mountains. 

 As is usual with an Alberta clipper, we won't get a huge dump of snow with this one here in Vermont, but it will get somewhat snowy. .

Ahead of it, strong south winds will get cranking Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Despite the south winds, it really won't warm up much, so the precipitation that does come in will be snow. 

The storm's boisterous cold fronts will bluster through on Thursday, with more snow showers. Some of them might be squally, with briefly heavy snow and particularly gusty and erratic winds. 

So really, this whole Alberta clipper thing will make travel on the highways a bit much at times through Wednesday through Friday. 

Lower valleys like the Champlain and lower Connecticut probably won't see much new snow, maybe an inch or two. But the mountains (Read: ski areas) should benefit from several inches of snow. 

Starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend, it's going to be COLD.  The howling winter winds will continue. High temperatures Friday and during next weekend will only be in the 20s, with some areas maybe not making it out of the teens Friday. 

Lows will be in the single digits, and wind chills will certainly be below zero. If you  haven't dragged your really cold winter gear out of the closets yet, now's the time to do it. 

Sure, it usually gets cold in December, but this looks like it will definitely a stronger and more intense early December cold wave than we've gotten used to in recent years.  Though in this age of climate change, this won't be as nasty as some historic cold waves decades ago. It won't be a record-breaker.

It's beginning to look like a reinforcing shot of frigid air will come in around Sunday, so the earliest we might see any kind of warm up is more than a week away. 

Friday Morning Vermont Debby Update: Early Rain Over-Performs; Flood/Wind Risk Continues

The National Weather Service in South Burlington 
released this rainfall prediction map. It includes what
already fell, and what will come down through 
Saturday morning. As you can see, New York
gets the heaviest rain. We'll have to watch for
pockets of locally heavier rain in Vermont that
might not be depicted in this map. Still, more than
two inches of rain is fairly impressive .

 The first batch of heavy rain associated with former Tropical Storm Debby lifted through Vermont overnight and early this morning as expected. 

Unfortunately, it over-performed in central and northern Vermont dumping more rain than predicted in many areas. That primes the pump, so to speak, for possible additional flooding later today.

We can also expect some wind damage in parts of Vermont today, along with isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. There's even a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado this afternoon or evening. 

Despite the trouble brewing in Vermont, the bigger threat for flash flooding has continued to focus on northern New York and a little less on the Green Mountain State for this event. 

Let's take it step by step again.

THIS MORNING

You probably did hear the occasional roar of downpours on your roof overnight and early this morning. One to 1.5 inches of rain, with spot amounts to two inches fell in a band from eastern Addison County, through Barre-Montpelier and on off to St. Johnsbury. 

Both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury reported about 1.7 inches of rain already as of 7 a.m. since this all started last night. 

This is precisely the wrong area to see the heaviest rain, as that zone has experienced the worst of the flooding this summer. 

Already, a flood warning was posted this morning for parts of the Northeast Kingdom from St. .Johnsbury to points north and west including Lyndonville and Barton.

 This Northeast Kingdom region is especially prone to added flood damage because the hasty repairs to roads and culverts after the massive July 30 flash flood are not stable or complete. So the added downpours this morning could be causing more damage.

All that said, the biggest flood threat from the remnants of Debby today are across northern New York, where the heaviest rain is falling, and will fall.

The Mad River at Moretown rose by more than three feet in just a few hours early this morning, but appeared to be stabilizing below flood stage at dawn. Still, since river levels are now higher than expected, that increases the chances somewhat that flooding could occur this evening. 

All that said, the biggest flood threat remains in New York. But Vermont will need to be watched closely today. 

TODAY

You might notice a lull in the rain for awhile this morning but it will pick up again. The steady, heavy rain today and this evening will focus on New York State, but there will be fitful showers and storms throughout the day across Vermont.

The showers, rain and downpours will tend to be out concentrated from mid or late afternoon into the evening. That's probably when we'll have our biggest risk of any flash flooding. Again, it's one of those cases where not everybody has a crisis. Most places should be fine with the amount of rain we received and are about to get. 

However, some places will be dealing with washed out roads, basement flooding and other problems you get with intense rainfall rates.

We'll have to watch rainfall rates and whether any particular spot is hit by repeated downpours. If  former Debby behaves as expected, Vermont flooding problems will probably be relatively minor - mostly nuisance level - at least in most cases.  If former Debby really over-performs with especially heavy downpours, all bets are off. 

The National Weather Service and other meteorologists are watching this closely.  

There's other trouble brewing today, too: 

Wind

The remnants of Debby still have some wind energy.  That will channel gusts from south to north up the Champlain Valley. Also, southeast wind going up and over the Green Mountains will tend to grab some higher speed winds from aloft and bring them to the surface.

It's the classic western slope windstorm type deal we sometimes get in the winter. So, the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Greens. A wind advisory like this is fairly common in the winter, but very rare in the summer. But here we are. 

For today, all this will result in possible gusts in a few spots of up to 50 or 55 mph. That's enough to break branches and uproot a few trees and take down a few power lines.  Remember, trees uproot more readily when the ground is wet and soggy, so that will be an issue. 

Severe Storms/Tornado?

With any tropical or former tropical system, you often seen rotating storms, especially along and east of the storm's track. That could happen in Vermont. I would say if this does happen, it's most likely along or south of Route 2. 

A few storms could develop strong, damaging winds.  Since these storms will be rotating, we can't rule out a brief tornado somewhere in the state. The chances are low, but they're definitely not zero. These kinds of things with tropical type systems can develop and fade fast, so you might not much advance warning, if any warning, in the case of anything developing. 

IT ENDS QUICKLY

The heavy rain and wind will shut down quickly in Vermont tonight.  Western areas might see things settle down by 9 p.m., and by midnight or so east. Runoff from the heavy rain will continue to be an issue overnight, so we'll need to watch how river levels go. 

Most of the river flooding will be in northern New York. But we'll need to keep our eye on the Mad River, and possibly a few others. If any rivers do flood in Vermont, strong chances are it would be minor flooding, not the major flooding we saw in July.

All bets are off, though, if the rain today is much heavier than forecast. 

Saturday actually still looks like a nice summer day. Showers should re-develop Sunday afternoon and evening, but they shouldn't be intense enough to cause any new flood worries. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Watches Upgraded To Warnings; Quite A Storm Due

 It was hard to believe today that Vermont is anticipating a pretty intense winter storm. 

The National Weather Service Tuesday afternoon
snow map. Expected snow totals have been boosted
again but only by a little bit. Still looks like
many mid and high elevation towns could close
in on a foot of snow. 

Temperatures today were mild - in the 50s. Sunshine didn't fade behind clouds until mid afternoon south, late afternoon or early evening north. All in all a lovely April day. 

Tomorrow and Thursday, not so much. Friday and Saturday don't look great, either.

So here's a quick update for this evening. As you'll see, this storm is keeping meterologists really, really busy.  Here's what's changed since this morning:

1. Winter Storm Watch Now A Warning

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch, which means snowfall was possible, is upgraded to a winter storm warning, which means it's inevitable. This is a long lasting warning. It starts late morning tomorrow and goes to about dawn Friday. 

The heaviest snow, rain and schmutz looks like it will come down from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. The warning covers pretty much all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County.

Total accumulation will range widely in the winter storm warning area - somewhere between seven and 20 inches, with the highest amounts in the upper elevations. 

There are signs a fair amount of sleet could mix in with the snow in many locations. That will have to be watched, as the sleet could cut down on snow accumulations a bit. The heaviest precipitation will come overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, and to a bit of lesser extent Thursday afternoon and night. 

The Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County are under a somewhat lower grade winter weather advisory.  Like the warning, it's in effect from 11 a.m. tomorrow to 6 a.m. Friday. However, during daylight hours, slightly above freezing temperatures could cause a mix with rain and some melting. Total accumulations look to be three to nine inches based on elevation.

2. Strong Winds 

High wind warnings and wind advisories are up for much of Vermont. Luckily, most of the strongest winds will come before the heaviest snow. Still, those winds will help contribute to power outages and tree damage.

A high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County and for eastern Addison and Chittenden counties from 10 a.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m Thursday. Winds should crank in these areas at 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph.  

This happy but unsuspecting crocus blossomed today
in St. Albans, Vermont. This blossom is soon to be
battered or smushed by gusty winds and heavy
wet snow as that big storm approaches the state.

I wouldn't be surprised if local gusts go above 65 mph.  Rutland County looks like the target for the strongest, most destructive winds. 

A wind advisory has been hoisted for most of the rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley. Winds in this area will gust to at least 50 mph. The Champlain Valley will be pretty blustery, too, but maybe just slightly less so than the rest of the state. 

3. Forecast Changes and Highlights

In general, forecast snow amounts have been increased some since this morning, despite the risk of sleet mixing in. I have a feeling a fair number of towns, especially above a 1,000 foot elevation, will see at least a foot of snow. This storm could really clobber high elevations along and just east of the Green Mountain crest in the southern half of Vermont.

Summits all the way north to Jay Peak could see more than two feet of snow by Saturday.

Snow in lower valleys like near Lake Champlain will be a little more challenging to measure. True, three to nine inches in the forecast, but there might never actually be that much on the ground. For instance, a town might get four inches of snow Wednesday night, then it will melt some during the day Thursday, then three inches of additional snow would fall Thursday night. 

That would be a storm total of seven inches, but the snow might never get that deep, due to daytime melting. 

Power outages are still a big risk. We'll see a first wave Wednesday afternoon and especially night with the strong winds. Then the heavy snow will add more late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Things gradually improve - but the operative word is gradual - Friday and Saturday. I hope I'm not jinxing things, but the forecast still calls for partly to mostly clear skies Monday during the eclipse.  I still feel like something will go wrong and give us a solid overcast. That's because Vermont weather often disappoints at the most critical times.

We'll see if I'm just a glass half empty type of SOB. 

Quick Wednesday Evening Storm Update: Few Changes, Blast On Our Doorstep

Strong south winds in St. Albans Bay today was causing 
a slight "ice shove." The wind was pushing ice
up the bank toward the park above the lake. 

Quick Vermont storm update this late Wednesday afternoon. 

It's gotten awfully dark out there as of 4 p.m. this afternoon and the south wind has picked up as the big promised cold front bears down on us.  

We did manage another record high in Burlington today as it reached at least 60 degrees so far, besting the record of 59 degrees in 2018. 

 It might go up another degree or two, as sometimes an approaching cold front compresses the air, heating it a bit. 

It still looks like it will enter western Vermont a little after 6 p.m. and quickly move through. 

There have been some little changes to the forecast.

Most notably, the flood watch has been dropped. 

Expected showers during the day under were pretty underwhelming, so we missed out on that runoff.  The downpours with the front shouldn't be enough to cause much in the way of flooding. Rivers will still rise, but most should stay at or  just below bankful 

Winds will remain gusty from the south until the front hits.  Some favored areas in the Champlain Valley are gusting over 40 mph and that will continue for a couple more hours. 

When the front arrives, the wind will pick up from the west. Some of the taller showers with this front might be able to grab some high speed air from aloft and bring it to the surface. That'll be hit and miss.  

The western half of Vermont still is under a marginal risk for severe storms, because of those possible wind gusts. That's the lowest risk level on a five point scale.  As of 4:15 p.m., I am seeing a line of scattered lightning strikes near Ottawa, Canada and a couple more near Watertown, New York. 

So there might be an isolated lightning flash or two or a rumble of thunder when this comes through in the next few hours. But nothing to really light up the skies. 

Behind the front, wind gusts will continue. The highest winds might actually come about an hour after the front goes through. By that point, says the National Weather Service, the atmosphere will be able to mix some higher speed winds to the surface. 

So, the wind advisory remains in effect through the night. 

A flash freeze later tonight is still in the cards, too. Nothing has changed with that aspect of the forecast. Expect some slick spots on the roads Thursday morning. Many of us will probably see a little snow at the tail end of this event, but it won't amount to much. 

You can see how fast it gets cold behind the front by looking at reports from western New York. Buffalo, New York was at 64 degrees at noon, but down to 45 at 1 p.m. By 4 p.m., it was 33 and snowing in Buffalo. 

Watertown, New York was at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. and 45 at 4 p.m. So it's coming, folks!

It's still looking blustery and cold tomorrow. 

I'll leave it at that and I'll see how we did with this in the morning with a new report here in this blog thingy.  

Followup: Those Bad Eastern U.S. Monday Storms Materialized; At Least 2 Dead, Nearly 1M Without Power

A string of power poles toppled in severe storms
in Westminster, Maryland, Monday, part of a wide
ranging severe storm outbreak in the 
eastern United States. Photo by Jerry Jackson/AP.

On schedule, that huge area of the eastern U.S. that had been predicted to get blasted by severe storms and tornadoes received just that on Monday. 

So far, the storms are known to have killed two people: A teenager killed by a falling tree in South Carolina and a person struck by lightning in Alabama. 

Since the storms struck such a populated area, power was cut to 1.1 million homes and businesses, NPR reports.

In Westminster, Maryland,  33 adults and 14 children were eventually safely removed from 34 cars after a row of power poles blew over, dumping the power lines on and between the cars on busy Route 140. 

Most of the damage in the eastern United States was caused by intense straight line winds from the storms.  More than 1,000 reports of wind damage came into the National Weather Service. That's the most ever record in August and most in a single day this year, says the Washington Post. 

Meteorologists will be out today to determine whether a few of the storms created tornadoes.  They'll submit official reports on this within a couple days. One confirmed tornado was reported way up north in northern New York, not far east of Lake Ontario. 

Hail up to 4.5 inches in diameter was reported in Virginia.

New England was spared the rough weather on Monday, but southern and eastern New England was making up for that this morning.  A couple tornado warnings went up in Massachusetts.  Worse, widespread flooding has already reported in Massachusetts and Maine. Judging from radar images as of 11:30 a.m., that flash flooding appeared to be getting ready to worsen. 

Plenty more clean up to do in my St. Albans, Vermont 
driveway. Forecasts issued Sunday and Monday said we'd 
get about two inches. Instead I have 11.5 inches
of new, heavy snow. 

As we start our Wednesday morning, the snow continues to come down in many parts of Vermont

It's mostly lighter snow, but patches of heavier snow were still around early this morning, especially along the spine and western slopes of the Green Mountains. Even the southern Green Mountains that go so much snow yesterday, still seemed to be getting more as of dawn today. 

WHOPPING ACCUMULATIONS 

Final totals aren't in yet, since it's still snowing in many areas, but the amounts in some areas are absolutely eye-popping. In Vermont, the highest total I've seen so far is 36 inches in Marlboro, followed closely by 34.9 inches in Readsboro.

Those two reports came in last evening.  I'm sure they've had additional accumulations since in those two towns. 

The most I've seen anywhere so far is a crushing 36 inches in Moriah, New York, which is the eastern Adirondack foothills west of Port Henry,  and Colrain, Massachusetts, which is on the Vermont border close to Halifax and Readsboro.  Rowe, Massachusetts was close behind with 35 inches. Plainfield, New Hampshire had 32 inches. 

(There was a report of 43 inches in Beacon, New York, but the National Weather Service office in New York City says that report is erroneous).

Northern and central Vermont definitely over-performed, too.  Preliminary reports give us 23.2 inches in Shrewsbury, 20 inches in Mount Holly, The Addison County town of Waltham had 22.5 inches, which surprised me because it's not a particularly high elevation. (The highest snow totals came from elevated terrain).

Further north in Vermont, so far the highest totals I've seen so far are 22.5 inches in Waterbury Center and 18 inches in Greensboro.   Morrisville was close behind at 17.5 inches. 

We'll see some more, bigger totals later this morning, I'm sure. 

Web cam image from the Vermont Agency of 
Transportation showed traffic tied up in the snow 
along Interstate 89 in Georgia early this morning. 

This storm will join the famous big time, historic snowstorms in Vermont that are clustered around the March 13 and 14 time frame. Those include the Great Blizzard of 1888, a three-foot dump on March 14, 1984, the so-called "Storm of the Century" in 1993 and the Pi Day Blizzard on March 14, 2017.

THE CURRENT SITUATION:

It's still a mess out there in much of Vermont early this morning. About 26,000 homes and businesses were still without power as of 7 a.m. today. That's down from a peak of about 38,000 yesterday, but it's still a lot 

Any falling snow out there is still a little on the wet side as temperatures were near 30 degrees at daybreak.   It's windy out there, and it will stay that way all day. That will cause a few new outages, and make it a lot harder to restore power to those who are already out. 

A lot of schools in Vermont have delayed openings today and a few are closed. More time is needed to clear road of the heavy snow. Power outages, fallen trees and branches are all complicating the cleanup. 

Traffic cameras across the state at dawn today showed main roads in low elevations in southeastern Vermont were pretty good. 

Elsewhere, not so much. Most looks snow covered and slippery as snow continued to fall. Road crews are out, but you're really going to need to take your time heading into work today. Or stay home if you can. Unlike at this time yesterday, roads in the Champlain Valley look worse than highways in other parts of the state. 

I'm also still seeing reports of sections of roads blocked in a few spots in Vermont due to fallen trees and power lines.  I also noticed on a Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam of some sort of traffic jam and stopped traffic on Interstate 89 in Georgia as of 7:45 a.m. today. 

Roads - at least the main ones - should improve quite a bit during the day as snow intensities decline. It'll be a cold one, but plenty warm enough for salt to work on the highways. Plus, unlike yesterday, in most places, the snowfall will be light enough such that some heat from the strong March sun should get through to melt snow and ice on the pavement. 

WHAT'S NEXT

As noted, it was snowing fairly hard in a few locations and steadily in a lot of others as of 7 a.m. today. 

That huge, lumbering nor'easter was still close to the New England coast early this morning, and it was flinging moisture back westward all the way to Vermont and eastern New York.

Trees heavily weighed down by wet snow in my 
St. Albans, Vermont  yard early this morning. 

The storm was expected to be moving east by now, but it's had a hard time moving. Signs are now suggesting that is finally slowly departing, so the snow should taper off gradually. It will probably keep falling at perhaps lighter intensities all day in the mountains and western slopes. 

Winds will gust as high as 40 mph, so where it's a little colder, blowing snow will be a problem today. 

The storm is out of our hair tonight, but no rest for the weary!  A couple of systems will bring us a little bit more snow, then, for most of us, some rain Friday and Friday night. 

The first little thing to come through will be a weak disturbance that will spread snow showers across mostly northern Vermont tomorrow afternoon. That snow will probably mix with rain in the warmer, lower valleys. 

Anybody that does get snow from this won't see much. Maybe an inch or two.

On Friday a somewhat stronger storm comes through. with mostly rain, though some snow will come at the beginning and end of it, especially in the mountains and the Northeast Kingdom.

We won't see enough rain to cause any widespread flooding but there could be some problems in towns and cities where rain and melting snow will sit and cause street flooding because storm drains are clogged with snowbanks. 

Behind that storm, we'll have a really cold day on Sunday with a few snow showers around (Highs will only be about 30 degrees, which is at least ten degrees colder than normal for this time of year).

However, it's beginning to look like we start next week with great sugaring weather. Hard freezes will come at night as temperatures go into the low 20s, but afternoons will pop up to the low 40s for many of us. Sunshine should help, too.

Those of you who want to play in the snow over the next few days certainly have plenty of it. Just watch it in steep back country areas. I'd say there's a pretty good avalanche risk up there. 

Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Wobbles Continue In Forecast Amounts

Snow forecasts are generally unchanged in Vermont since
this morning but the afternoon updated map gives a little
more snow to northern Vermont than previous forecasts

As I anticipated, the expected snowfall with our just-about-to-start storm keeps changing a little bit with each updated forecast.  

For those of you who like certainty, I've got bad news: These forecasts will continue to shift even as we go through the actual storm. 

Interestingly, the latest forecast snowfall map issued this afternoon is remarkably similar to the one the National Weather Service issued Saturday afternoon.  The forecasts since Saturday have kept shifting up and down a little bit, and now we're back where we started from.

In hindsight, I guess they should have just kept running with Saturday's map. But nobody would have known that. Plus, there's no way this afternoon's forecast map is entirely accurate. Subtle shifts in temperature, wind and moisture will make big differences on what we actually end up with. 

What gives me confidence in the overall forecast is the broad brush idea remains similar to what was in the forecast as long ago as last Friday. 

SOUTHERN VERMONT

Far southern Vermont, especially the high elevations, is still part of ground zero for this storm. 

Expected accumulations in Bennington and Windham counties keep shifting a little, just as they are for the rest of the region. But new snow will be deep, especially uphill from the lowest valleys. You're still screwed down there. 

Many areas of the south will pick up at least a foot of snow. Some places might pile up 18 or more inches. It will be a wet, heavy snow propelled by wind, so power outages are still inevitable. 

It has already been snowing off and on in the high elevations of southern Vermont this afternoon. There hasn't been much accumulation so far. Traffic web cams showed that high elevation Route 9 was still clear of snow as of 5 p.m.  

High elevations in southern Vermont remain ground zero 
for the heaviest snow accumulations. Vermont Agency of
Transportation web cam grab from 5 p.m. Monday 
shows light snow already starting to accumulate just a 
bit along Route 9 in Marlboro.

That will change overnight. The snow will gradually pick up in intensity, and it will be snowing hard by morning. The bulk of the snow will come down during the day Tuesday and into at least part of Tuesday night. 

On Tuesday, snow will come down at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which is a lot for a wet snowstorm. 

Depending on where the heaviest snow bands set up, it could go to three inches per hour at times, which is pretty incredible. Winds might gust to 45 mph, so in a few local spots, near-blizzard conditions might develop. 

For those of you in southern Vermont, especially south of Route 4, get your supply runs done early this evening. Get the LED candles ready and charge your devices. And just hunker down tomorrow and tomorrow night and wait for the worst of it to pass

It's still be windy and snowy Wednesday, especially in high spots, but the intensity of the snow will definitely wane through the day.

No surprise that there is a winter storm warning in effect for this part of Vermont. 

CENTRAL VERMONT

Statewide, this storm will really be a matter of elevation. Warmer valleys will have a wetter, denser snow, which might melt just a bit during daylight hours Tuesday. Higher elevations will be better able to accumulate sno.

All this is especially true in central Vermont, roughly between Route 2 and Route 4. Lower spots, like along Route 7 between, say Clarendon and Burlington, will have bursts of slushy snow, maybe mixed with a little rain during the day Tuesday before going solidly to snow Tuesday night. 

Accumulations in those valleys by mid-morning Wednesday could end up being up to five, six or seven inches of snow with the consistency of wet cement. Yeah, that'll break your back and your shovel.

Go uphill just a bit,  and you get a lot more snow. From Ludlow, all the way up through rather high elevation towns like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Chittenden, Ripton, Warren and Fayston could easily get a foot of snow out of this. 

Although the snow won't be as wet and slushy in the higher elevations, it will still fall well short of fluffy. So, snow loading on trees and power lines will cause trouble here, too. High winds will make it worse Tuesday through Wednesday. 

If the storm system jogs a little more northwest than forecast, as a few computer models indicate, there might be more snow than forecast.

Most of central Vermont is under a winter storm warning for an expected 6-12 inches of snow.  In the Champlain Valley, a slightly less dire winter weather advisory is in effect because lower elevations of Addison County stands a good chance of receiving a little less than six inches of snow.

NORTHERN VERMONT

This is still the wild card part of Vermont. The guidance has pushed up the expected moisture a bit so a little more snow might fall in the north than we saw in earlier forecasts. 

Most of Vermont north of Route 2 hadn't been under any winter weather alerts until this afternoon. A winter weather advisory was extended northward to cover all of the north except Franklin and Grand Isle and western Chittenden County. 

Areas covered under the advisory can expect four or five inches of snow, with winds gusting to 35 mph. 

The northern Champlain Valley is outside the advisory, but it does look like there might be a little more snow than originally forecast.  For instance, Sunday evening, 1.4 inches of new snow was forecast in St. Albans. This evening. St. Albans has been told to expect 2.9 inches. 

That's still not a lot, but you can see the trend. 

Meteorologists have noticed that northwestward trend in the models, so the Champlain Valley could actually end up with more than that two or three inch forecast. 

What gives some mets pause is that the past couple of storms the forecasts kept nudging storms northward to give the Champlain Valley more snow, only for that to not happen. 

The worst and best case forecasts for the northern Champlain valley are still all over the place. This morning, the low and high range for snow fall in St. Albans was somewhere between 0 and 10 inches. Tonight, that range is between 2 and 12 inches. 

I doubt St. Albans will get 12 inches of new snow, but I expect surprises in northern Vermont, much more so than the south. I'm not sure if areas north of Route 2 will get more or less snow than expected, but it probably won't be three inches. 

Although I don't expect widespread power issues in northern Vermont, some high elevations might see enough wet snow and strong winds to cause brief, isolated problems. 

ELSEWHERE

Unfortunately, as I noted in a post several weeks ago, an agricultural disaster will start tonight in the Southeast.

Just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, spring came way, way prematurely in the South, causing crops like peaches and blueberries to bloom much sooner than they should.

And, just like in 2012, 2017 and 2018, a strong storm in New England is pushing cold air into the Southeast. Nasty frosts and freezes are likely tonight and tomorrow night from Arkansas to the Carolinas. 

I expect millions of dollars in damage, at least, to crops through that region. 

Closer to home, the Catskill Mountains in New York, Berkshires in Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire are still under the gun for up to two feet of wet snow. Maybe more in a few spots. Lighter snow, but heavy rain, damaging winds and coastal flooding are due in New England, Long Island and 

Another Vermont Severe Storm Watch Today, Ugly Hot Weather Pattern Possible Next Week

A slight risk of severe storms. (alert level 2 of 5)
is centered over Vermont this afternoon

UPDATE:12:30 p.m.

To pretty much nobody's surprise, a severe thunderstorm watch is now up for all of Vermont, most of central and eastern New York and far western Massachusetts. 

Storms have been firing up in western and central New York, including one that prompted a tornado warning east of Buffalo, New York. 

Although a renegade storm could pop up at anytime starting now in Vermont, the main push of storms has been postponed by about an hour or so.  

Most storms will come through between 2 and 7 p.m.  The severe thunderstorm watch is up until 8 p.m., mostly to account for storms that might be just winding up at that point in far eastern Vermont.  

It's looking like the peak of the storms in Vermont would be in the 3 to 6 p.m. time frame. Though of course I want to emphasize the some storms could come before or after that. 

The main threat continues to be strong straight line winds in the strongest storms. 

Satellite imagery continued to show a fair amount of sun over Vermont and northeastern New York, which is helping to destabilize the atmosphere. The fact that the sun will stay out an hour or so longer than originally anticipated could help strengthen the storms further, and make them slightly more numerous than in earlier forecasts. 

The humidity continues to climb as well, so that will also help feed storms. So expect an active weather afternoon in Vermont

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

We've had quite a few days with severe storm risks in Vermont lately and today's another one, despite the bright clear skies you see this morning. 

Those bright clear skies are actually one ingredient that will help prompt today's storms.  

Severe thunderstorm watch includes all of Vermont 
until 8 p.m. this evening. 

It's the usual set up for mid-summer storm outbreaks in Vermont.  A cold front is approaching, but it's well to the west.  Ahead of that front, in the humid air, is a little disturbance called a pre-frontal trough. These little lead disturbances are common with summertime cold fronts. 

The sun's heating and the increasing humidity will make the air more and more unstable. The pre-frontal trough will add just enough lift to the fire up storms, some of which will high in the sky and produce locally severe storms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a blob of slight severe risk, level two out of five risk centered today right over Vermont, and also affecting eastern New York, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut.  Environment Canada is watching the storm risk in southern Quebec. 

The biggest threat of damage from any of today's storms is strong straight line winds.  Only a small number of Vermont towns will suffer this damage, as usual. Only we can't tell in advance where this will be.  You'll have to pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings this afternoon, and take it from there. 

So just keep near a sturdy building, or at least an enclosed car, just in case. This is another day to postpone a hike in the mountains or day with your boat on the lake or an afternoon golf outing.  It's supposed to be nice this weekend. Do it then.  

Like we've seen a few times this summer, there's actually a very, very low, but not zero risk of a brief spin up tornado today. The atmosphere isn't great to produce the kind of spinning storm that would produce a tornado potential, but it's not impossible either. 

A strong thunderstorm with heavy rain tosses trees a 
bit this past Monday in St. Albans, Vermont. Similar
scenes are likely to play out in parts of the state today.

The overall air flow is from the southwest, but the Champlain Valley channels the wind in a more southerly direction. So with south winds at the surface and west winds aloft, that could create some spin in a storm or two. 

Even if that happens, a storm that rotates is no guarantee of a brief tornado. But still, I guess the Champlain Valley has become Vermont's version of tornado alley.  Again, chances of a tornado are quite low.

Other risks from today's storms, even if you're not in a severe one, include frequent cloud to ground lightning, which is why you shouldn't be golfing or out on your boat this afternoon. 

Some storms will produce torrential downpours. That could create a few areas of street flooding or some gully washing.  The storms won't sit over one particular place for all that long, so the risk of any substantial flash flooding is pretty low. 

One or two spots could get some hail out of this too. There's a low, but not zero risk that one or two storms could produce big enough hail to ding cars and that sort of thing. 

Timing this out, the risk hours for storms are probably around 1 to 5 p.m. west of the Green Mountains and 2 to 6:30 or so east of the Greens. 

UGLY HEAT?

We seem to be coming into some risk of nasty heat next week, most likely later in the week.  The hot air will start flooding in Monday, when highs could reach 90 degrees. But that initial surge of heat will get cut off at the pass by a weak cold front Tuesday. But then, signs point to the heat really re-asserting itself.

The Bermuda High off the East Coast is forecast to set up a hot southwest flow over us.  Also, an air flow from the west seems to want to grab some of that super hot air now causing a nasty heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and bring it in our direction.

We still have a lot of questions as to how hot it will actually get and how long it will last. No promises, but there's the potential late next week for temperatures in the mid to even upper 90s. We'll keep an eye on that. But ugh!! 

To get you in the mood for today's storms, here's a video of a fairly strong, but non-severe storm that passed through St. Albans, Vermont on Monday. Click on this link to view, or watch in the image below: 

Tornado Confirmed In Vermont Monday, More Hot And Severe Weather Ahead

Radar image from last evening from the weather team at
WPTZ-TV.  This shows likely strong rotation and a
possible tornado near Marlboro and West Brattleboro,
Vermont around 10 p.m. last night. The close proximity
of the red and green colors shows wind blowing in 
opposite directions right next to each other, indicating
that possible tornado

UPDATE:

An EF-1 tornado in Addison, Vermont was confirmed by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

Among the evidence: A local resident, Levi Barrett, caught the tornado on video.  It clearly showed a twisting funnels, perhaps some sub-vortices within it.  The tornado is visible on video flinging tree branches and other debris into the air. 

The tornado crosses a road in the video, and frighteningly, a car appears to drive right into it. 

The tornado was on the ground for a mile and had top winds of 90 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

I'll have more on this later as more details are confirmed. 

 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Yesterday did indeed prove to be an interesting weather day in Vermont, as some of the stronger showers and small thunderstorms ended up rotating as expected.  This might or might not have resulted in one or two brief tornadoes in Vermont.  

Meanwhile, more  hot, humid weather is up for today through Thursday, with additional chances for more severe storms in that period. More on that in a minute. 

One rotating storm last evening shortly before 7 p.m. caused tree and property damage and a report of a 69 mph wind gust near the intersection of Routes 22A and 17 in Addison last evening. 

The small storm did show signs of rotation on radar. At least for a short while. However, it's unclear if the damage was from straight line winds or a short-lived tornado.  

Video still of a tornado in Addison, Vermont shows tree 
branches being lofted into the air. Video by Levi Barrett.
It was provided to WPTZ's weather team and posted
on Twitter by WPTZ Chief Meteorologist 
Tyler Jankowski 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington announced they have people heading to Addison this morning to determine whether or not it was a tornado.  They'll probably be able to tell what it was that caused the trouble by looking at the damage pattern.  For instance, if trees in the damage zone fell in different directions, it would more likely be a tornado. If all the fallen trees point in the same direction, it would more likely be straight line damage. 

The National Weather Service says they will tell us by this evening what they think hit Addison.   

Another possible brief tornado might have hit last night at about 10 p.m.  around Marlboro and West Brattleboro, but unfortunately, I suspect we'll never know for sure. 

Radar images were fairly convincing, but not slam dunk proof that there was a tornado in that area. It seemed to have happened in a relatively remote area, and as of this writing, I'm not aware of plans by any National Weather Service office to investigate this. (It would be the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York who would go there, as Brattleboro is part of their coverage area).

The storm prompted a tornado warning for southwestern New Hampshire, including the cities of Hinsdale and Keene, but the rotation fizzled on approach to Keene and I'm pretty sure there was no tornado there. 

Further east, it appears there was likely another tornado in Poland, Maine, north of Portland. 

In any event, the rain with these storms was surely welcome.  A small minority of towns missed out with around a half inch of rain, but most areas in Vermont received around an inch of rain, give or take, from yesterday's system. As expected, the heaviest rain was in parts of the Northeast Kingdom not far from Jay Peak, where I saw some reports of over two inches of rain. The most I've seen so far is 2.77 inches in Derby Line. 

The light rainfall in southern and eastern Vermont is a big disappointment because that's been the driest part of the state and drought has been established there. 

NEXT UP: HEAT AND STORMS

Very warm and humid air will cling to us like a smelly wet blanket through Thursday, but there might also be a few moments of excitement here and there. 

Let's break it down.

Today

Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 
northern half of New England today. That somewhat
 higher risk in yellow in the western Great Lakes
represents our future on Thursday. 

Now that yesterday's warm front has gone by, the very warm,  humid air has fully engulfed us. It'll be in the 80s today with fairly high humidity.  The broad valleys will be in the upper 80s, and there could be a spot 90 here or there. 

The warm front's parent storm is still up in Quebec, and is flinging little mini cold fronts southward our way. There's not much to these little disturbances, but given the unstable air in place, they can trigger some strong storms pretty quickly. 

There's dry air aloft, so they don't have all that much moisture to work with. That's why forecasters say the storms will be widely scattered. Most of us won't even see a storm today.  Unfortunately, the storms, with their rainfall, are least likely in southern Vermont. 

Though today's storms will probably be relatively few and far between, any that do get going could well pack a punch. 

The dry air way up high is also relatively cool, at least compared to the air we're having to deal with down on the ground. That means the air is unstable. One of many things meteorologists look at when considering thunderstorm forecast is something called CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy.  This describes the amount of fuel available for storms, the amount of instability in the air. 

Generally speaking, if the CAPE value is over 1,000 in Vermont, there's a risk of strong to severe storms. Forecast CAPE levels are forecast to be between 1,500 to 2,500 in Vermont this afternoon, so the potential is there. 

Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the risks from today's storms. Atmospheric conditions are wrong for any tornado potential, so that won't be an issue today. 

 Things quickly quite down tonight and it will stay stuffy and uncomfortable for sleeping. 

Wednesday:

Probably the hottest day of the period, with a caveat.  Some forecasts call for quite a bit of sun, and very little chance of showers or storms, so that would bring the warmer valleys into the low 90s.

A few forecasts call for a fair number of afternoon thunderstorms Wednesday, especially over the mountains. The clouds and outflow from these storms would keep us a wee bit cooler, but still humid. If these storms develop, one or two could very briefly cause strong winds but there's no widespread severe risk in Vermont on Wednesday. 

Thursday

We're still at risk for quite a few severe storms on Thursday. Earlier guesses are southern and eastern Vermont and the rest of New England are most at risk.. But all of Vermont and eastern New York are also still in play here. 

Risk of severe storms for all of New England on
Thursday. Wind, hail, maybe even tornado?

An stronger than normal storm, and a stronger than normal cold front for this time of year will be approaching.  Especially if there's a lot of sun before all that gets here, we're in line for some big storms. 

Typically in these situations, the worst storms come near what is known as a pre-frontal trough.  A pre-frontal trough is basically a mini cold front that is running out ahead of the main, "real" cold front.

The timing of the pre-frontal trough, and the cold front itself is key.   If either comes through in the morning, then the risk of severe storms falls

If these come through in the afternoon, after the sun destabilizes the air, then we're in trouble. Especially in this case. 

Upper level winds will be almost the strongest on record for this time of year. If big thunderstorms get going, they can grab those strong upper level winds and fling those gusts down to the surface, on to us.  That would lead to some really serious downbursts in a few spots, which can cause a lot of damage.

Hail and even a tornado or two are also possible Thursday, depending on the timing of things. Stay tuned for updates! 

Beyond Thursday

The air behind the cold front isn't actually much colder, but it will gradually turn somewhat cooler and drier Friday and over the weekend. But it'll still be well into the 80s Friday and low 80s over the weekend. A rapid series of disturbances will keep the risk of scattered showers and storms going into early next week, but figuring out the extent and timing of any rain at this point is impossible. 

Vermont Severe Threat Today: Iffy, But Watch Skies Anyway

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a risk of 
severe storms today over much of the 
Northeast, including most of Vermont. 
Highest risk of severe storms is in orange,
lower risk in dark green, yellow is 
somewhere in the middle.

UPDATE:12:15 p.m.

That model I dismissed as unlikely in the earlier post may actually be coming at least partially to fruition.

Showers and storms were already starting to fire up in central New York and the Adirondacks as of noon. 

There's potential for them to grow as they move rapidly toward western Vermont early this afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says it will likely issue severe thunderstorms watches for parts of Vermont, New York and Pennsylvania soon.

Be on the look out for rapidly changing weather. Strong, gusty winds with possible destructive microbursts in a few locations are possible this afternoon.

Even if any storm that hits you turns out not to be severe, you'll still see some gusty winds, dangerous cloud to ground lightning and briefly torrential downpours.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, 10 a.m.

I'm late to the party this morning so let's get right to it on today's severe weather threat in Vermont.

Only a few of us will see strong to severe storms today, but of course, picking out who the lucky ones will be is impossible to predict until the storms are actually formed and approaching. 

But we can get clues as to the general idea now that it's late morning, a few hours before the storms get going.

Overall, there is a severe thunderstorm threat along and east of the Appalachians from Kentucky all the way up through Maine. The highest threat seems to be around Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania where the best ingredients are coming together for storms there later today. 

Here in Vermont, most of the state is under a slight risk of severe storms, level two of five alert levels, meaning they expect scattered, mostly short lived severe storms. The northwest corner of Vermont is under level one marginal risk, meaning there might be an isolated storm.

Whether we get big storms, and how widespread they'll be depend upon a lot of factors happening late this morning. 

A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms was making its way through Vermont at mid-morning. These showers would tend to stabilize the air, reducing the chances of storms. Clearing behind this fast moving line of showers will work to destabilize the air again.  

What happens this afternoon largely depends on how much clearing we get. It's obvious from satellite imagery that skies were rapidly going to partly sunny behind the showers.  The degree to which the air becomes unstable depends on how sunny it gets, how many breaks in the clouds develop and how long it lasts.

It's also growing more humid out there, and will become even muggier behind the morning showers, so that's a factor in favor of storms. 

A boundary coming through Vermont this afternoon would be a trigger for storms. However, usually air collides at these boundaries, causing updrafts and encouraging thunderstorms. The collision of air along this boundary isn't very direct, more akin to a sideswipe car collision. So there's lift there, but it's not as extensive as it could be. 

Damage from severe storms in Sheldon, Vermont in 
July, 2019. It's possible there could be a few scenes like
this by the end of the day in Vermont. 

The air doesn't change directions with height much, so that would help us avoid rotating, long lived thunderstorms. But the wind is strong aloft, so any storms that do develop could at least briefly bring those strong winds down to the surface.

One run of a  short term model called the HRRR has clusters of storms developing mostly across central and eastern Vermont this afternoon. Another run seemed to indicate a line of storms forming very early this afternoon near western Vermont and crossing all but the far northwestern part of the state.

To be honest, I'm not really buying that idea of a semi-solid line of storms crossing the state between 12:30 and 2:30 p.m. today. I think the peak of the storms will be slightly later, like between 2 and 5 p.m, last in eastern Vermont. I also think they will be more hit and miss. That said, keep an eye on the skies anytime after noontime in case anything develops early. 

The model, for what it's worth, brings more showers and storms across the border from Canada into northwestern Vermont early this evening, but that line would weaken as it moves south deeper into the state.  We'll see how that plays out. 

Bottom line, don't go for a hike or out onto the lake today. Conditions could rapidly change from sunny to stormy. It does seem like any storms that do form will zip along pretty quickly. I think there's a decent chance they'll issue a severe thunderstorm watch by early afternoon that will include at least parts of Vermont. More likely south and east of a Newport to Burlington line. 

A few severe thunderstorm warnings will pop up and if you get one of those warnings, take cover in a good building immediately. Like I said, these storms will be coming at you pretty quickly.   

I also expect a few false alarms with those severe thunderstorm warnings. And possibly a few severe storms that aren't forewarned by the National Weather Service. 

No, the NWS will NOT be asleep at the wheel today. They're watching this super carefully. The problem is, if a severe storm develops, it could go from a nothingburger to something nasty almost immediately. 

Once it becomes nasty, the NWS would issue a severe storm warning. Then, a few, but not all of the storms could weaken quickly.  Best bet is to take all severe storm warnings seriously. In a few instances, the winds could be locally quite destructive. Especially if you get caught under a microburst, which this weather situation seems to favor. 

In some cases, a microburst can be as damaging as a tornado, which is why you want to take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously. 

I'll try to update as warranted. This surely isn't going to be the most widespread severe storm event in Vermont history, but it's enough where you want to pay attention to the sky. 

Gusty Winds Thursday Introduced Rainy Vermont Period, Things To Improve Sunday

Trees bend in the wind Thursday evening in St. 
Albans Vermont. Some gusts Thursday reached 40 mph

 I was pretty impressed by some of the wind gusts yesterday, as they were pretty strong for this time of year.   

Normally, we only see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph or more range during strong thunderstorms this time of year.   Non-thunderstorm winds like Thursday's are usually creatures of late fall, winter and early spring. 

Burlington managed a gust to 44 mph, the highest reported in the area so far, but many places were in the 35 to 40 mph range. Leaves on the trees this time of year make them more prone to snapping, and I did see quite a few branches and a couple of trees down in my wanderings on Thursday. 

The wind has died down, and this morning, we've dealt with some light showers, at least in northern areas. 

As expected, we're going to deal with a couple not so perfect late spring days. But the rain is always welcome. It's coming at just the right time to wet down the gardens after a few dry, breezy days. 

It's possible a few storms this afternoon could get on the strong side, but the the risk is marginal at best. We could also see some locally torrential downpours late today and tonight, but again, the risk of any flooding is very low. 

The real serious part of this storm system is hitting the Mid-Atlantic States. There's been a tornado watch since early today in part Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland that's in effect until at least 2 p.m. today. The same areas could see some flash floods as well. 

It's a sluggish storm system, as previously advertised, so showers should linger through much of Saturday. It appears that the air will be unstable enough for renewed showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder  to re-blossom in at least parts of Vermont during the afternoon. 

Sunday is still looking gorgeous with sunshine and reasonable humidity levels.

That hot spell for next week is looking less hot and a bit less humid as well. It will still be very warm for this time of year, and the humidity won't be exactly low. The ridge of high pressure causing the toasty weather is expected to set up shop a little further south than first thought. 

This readjusted setup will allow disturbances riding up and over the ridge to skirt just to our north, which offers the chances of a few showers and storms in northern Vermont by midweek.  The ridge will be starting to break down around Thursday, to allow more showers and maybe storms to move in by then.  

Hot, Noisy Weekend In Vermont, Then Spring Returns

A long skinny zone from Texas to Maine, including
Vermont, has some risk of severe thunderstorms later today.

 The forecast has only undergone some minor changes for this weekend, so expect a lot of sweat and a fair amount of noise from the weather here in the Green Mountain State.

We still have a heat advisory for the low elevations of western and southeastern Vermont. I have questions as to whether it will get as hot as forecast, especially in northwestern Vermont. 

Debris clouds from storms that developed in the Great Lakes, Ontario and western Quebec are moving through.  These clouds might not fully clear out, and that would keep the temperatures down a little for the day.

Still, it will be very warm and oppressively muggy. 

Meanwhile, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has bumped us up from a marginal to slight risk of severe storms today and this evening. That's level 2 of a five point scale of risk. 

As described over the past couple of days, we're still looking at both the instability that would encourage strong storms and the cap, or warm layer of air aloft, which would squelch them. Which of the two will win?

It's looking like the result of this tug and war in the atmosphere will be hit or miss storms. Where storms can get going this afternoon, they'll quickly become strong. I think, but don't guarantee, that the afternoon storms, if they develop, will be few and far between. But again, those isolated storms could easily pack a punch.

Additional storms expected to form in New York this afternoon could arrive in Vermont this evening, again in hit or miss fashion. Those evening boomers, I suspect, will be somewhat more widespread, especially in northern Vermont. Again, though, hit and miss, not everybody gets rocked. 

The main threat from any storms later today will be strong, straight line winds and hail up to the size of a quarter.   Since it's so humid, some storms could have briefly torrential rain.  There is a very, very low, but not zero risk of a quick spin up tornado, but I'm really doubting that, to be honest.

 We can only keep an eye on things and see how they develop. 

The severe storm risk is more limited to
our neck of the woods Sunday. 

Tonight's not going to be great for sleeping. First, it will be muggy and sticky. We could also see a few thunderstorms roam through here and there to wake you up if you do manage to sleep. 

Tomorrow's still a day to watch.  Still no guarantees, but conditions do seem favorable for a line of strong storms to bust through in the afternoon as a cold front comes in. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with - again - damaging straight line winds the main threat. 

There could be hail, and again, a very, very, low risk of a quick spin up twister along the line of storms, but again, doubtful. (You never know, though, right, Charlestown, New Hampshire?).

Sunday afternoon's storms, at least some of them, could also contain torrential rain. But the storms will be zipping right along, so it won't rain hard for long in any one place, so I'm not too worried about flash flooding. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has us in a low risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Sunday.

We turn cooler and springlike again for the first half of the week.  We'll have to watch the second half of the week, as there's some (very uncertain) potential for some heavy rains.