Hot, Noisy Weekend In Vermont, Then Spring Returns

A long skinny zone from Texas to Maine, including
Vermont, has some risk of severe thunderstorms later today.

 The forecast has only undergone some minor changes for this weekend, so expect a lot of sweat and a fair amount of noise from the weather here in the Green Mountain State.

We still have a heat advisory for the low elevations of western and southeastern Vermont. I have questions as to whether it will get as hot as forecast, especially in northwestern Vermont. 

Debris clouds from storms that developed in the Great Lakes, Ontario and western Quebec are moving through.  These clouds might not fully clear out, and that would keep the temperatures down a little for the day.

Still, it will be very warm and oppressively muggy. 

Meanwhile, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has bumped us up from a marginal to slight risk of severe storms today and this evening. That's level 2 of a five point scale of risk. 

As described over the past couple of days, we're still looking at both the instability that would encourage strong storms and the cap, or warm layer of air aloft, which would squelch them. Which of the two will win?

It's looking like the result of this tug and war in the atmosphere will be hit or miss storms. Where storms can get going this afternoon, they'll quickly become strong. I think, but don't guarantee, that the afternoon storms, if they develop, will be few and far between. But again, those isolated storms could easily pack a punch.

Additional storms expected to form in New York this afternoon could arrive in Vermont this evening, again in hit or miss fashion. Those evening boomers, I suspect, will be somewhat more widespread, especially in northern Vermont. Again, though, hit and miss, not everybody gets rocked. 

The main threat from any storms later today will be strong, straight line winds and hail up to the size of a quarter.   Since it's so humid, some storms could have briefly torrential rain.  There is a very, very low, but not zero risk of a quick spin up tornado, but I'm really doubting that, to be honest.

 We can only keep an eye on things and see how they develop. 

The severe storm risk is more limited to
our neck of the woods Sunday. 

Tonight's not going to be great for sleeping. First, it will be muggy and sticky. We could also see a few thunderstorms roam through here and there to wake you up if you do manage to sleep. 

Tomorrow's still a day to watch.  Still no guarantees, but conditions do seem favorable for a line of strong storms to bust through in the afternoon as a cold front comes in. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with - again - damaging straight line winds the main threat. 

There could be hail, and again, a very, very, low risk of a quick spin up twister along the line of storms, but again, doubtful. (You never know, though, right, Charlestown, New Hampshire?).

Sunday afternoon's storms, at least some of them, could also contain torrential rain. But the storms will be zipping right along, so it won't rain hard for long in any one place, so I'm not too worried about flash flooding. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has us in a low risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Sunday.

We turn cooler and springlike again for the first half of the week.  We'll have to watch the second half of the week, as there's some (very uncertain) potential for some heavy rains.