Early Sunday Afternoon Update: New Severe Storm Watch About To Go Up In Vermont, Surrounding Areas

UPDATE 6:30 pm

Relatively dramatic clouds, but no severe weather in 
northwest Vermont, with this view of Georgia, 
Vermont as an example.

The expected severe threat in Vermont is turning out to be a bust. 

On one hand that's good news, since people aren't picking up the mess left by severe weather.

Of course, the bad news is something went wrong with the forecast, at least in much of Vermont. 

A line of showers did produce a gust front with 30-35 mph winds. There might have been locally somewhat higher gusts. I know a tree fell in Bakersfield, which took down a power line and  started a fire that closed Route 36 near the intersection with Route 108. 

A severe storm or two could still pop up in southeastern Vermont until about 8 p.m. or so, but the the threat isn't super high. 

In northwestern Vermont, temperatures were crashing toward the 50s behind the cold front. Light rain showers will probably linger for a few hours here and there. Nothing severe though! 

I'll have more details in tomorrow morning's post about why the forecast was off, at least for the most part in Vermont 

UPDATE: 1:15 pm

Environment Canada has issued a tornado watch in southern Quebec in areas closest to the Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine borders.

Also, 15 minutes after I finished writing this update post (around 1 pm.) I now see convection starting to fire up in New York State. That will develop fast for the next few hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at around 12:30 today issued a statement that they were getting ready to issue a severe thunderstorm watch for northern New England. 

This is as expected, because the risk of severe weather for this afternoon has been advertised for days. 

The Storm Prediction Center's statement is forecasting the risk of  damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two in northern New England. 

As of 12:45 p.m., there was almost no shower or storm activity anywhere near Vermont.  I'm a little surprised nothing has gotten going yet. But that should change soon. 

A line of thick clouds was entering the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and I think the difference in the amount of heat to the east verses under the cloud bank will be where the main line of storms start. So this will be an event pretty much confined to the Adirondacks and Hudson Valley, then points east into New England.

NOAAs's Storm Prediction Center anticipates a
severe thunderstorm watch to be issues soon in
northern New England. 

Some thunderstorms will probably develop ahead of this expected line as well. We'll have to watch those especially carefully, because the storms ahead of the main line can form into supercells. Supercells are especially prone to throwing out damaging winds gusts, car-denting hail, and that quite low but real tornado risk. 

Cleanup in Williston, Vermont this morning after severe
storms mowed down several trees in town Saturday.
Additional severe storms could create added damage
in a few Vermont towns today. 

This is especially true in the northern half of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and much of Maine. 

I'm sure that severe thunderstorm, or perhaps even a tornado watch will be in effect by 3 p.m. if not well before that. 

We're most at risk for storms, again, some of those damaging, between 2 and 9 p.m today. Western Vermont will see the storms begin and end soonest, while eastern Vermont will be last to finish up this evening. 

This all comes after a few severe thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday. I was in Williston this morning and was impressed by the number of fallen branches and trees. 

Some of the fallen trees were huge. Route 2 on French Hill between Williston and Richmond was closed this morning, presumably because of storm damage.