Today's Vermont Severe Weather Threat, Explained

Though the highest threat for damaging, severe 
thunderstorms in in the orange zone, Vermont
is at risk for severe storms as well, 
mostly between 2 and 10 pm. today. 

UPDATE:  

is now in effect for all of Vermont through 8 pm. 

The expected main line of storms is still well to our west, but also as expected, storms are firing up in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains well ahead of this line. 

Some of these storms might become severe as well. 

A few of these storms are capable of turning into supercells, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which could contain large hail and damaging winds.

Be weather aware folks. Storms will continue to roam the area for the rest of the afternoon and probably into the evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in the low risk category for severe storms today, which is alert level two of five.

That means stay on your toes for scattered incidents of severe thunderstorms.  Most of us won't see a storm that meets severe criteria. But a few lucky devils will so we'll need to be on our toes.  

The rest of us ought to be on our toes, too, really.  Even if you don't have a storm that's officially "severe," a lot of storms today will have gusty winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. 

The patches of dense fog were burning off as I write this, (later in the morning than usual due to an Xfinity outage). The sun will help destabilize the air ahead of a potent cold front coming from the west later today.

Vermont isn't really at the highest risk of severe weather of all the places in the Northeast. The bullseye seems to be from central New York down through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and down into Maryland.

Those spots as of this writing have the highest chance of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods in Vermont, it just means the Green Mountain  State has a slightly lesser chance of being on the receiving end of nastiness. 

It looks like the main show for the Northeast will be a whomping squall line.  Up here in Vermont, that squall line might be just a tiny bit weaker. Here's why, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Well ahead of this squall line, thunderstorms should develop over the Green Mountains by early afternoon as the atmospheric instability grows. These storms could stabilize the air a little bit, so the squall line, when it gets here, might not have all the ingredients to make it super powerful.

That said, the squall line will have what is known as a negative tilt. That means it'll have a northwest to southeast orientation as it approaches us. It won't be a huge tilt, but it might add a little energy to this. 

It looks like the main line of storms will come in somewhere around 5 or 6 p.m in western Vermont, give or take, and be out of eastern Vermont by around 10 p.m. It's hard to say which parts of this squall line will be most intense around here. We won't know until it is approaching or over us

By the way, by far the biggest threat from these storms is straight line winds and localized flooding.  Still there's a very low, but not zero chance of a quick spin up tornado. Don't count on that, but it's within the realm of possibility. 

Although we had a long dry spell, pockets of Vermont had torrential downpours Saturday and Sunday. This is especially true around Rutland. That area received 1 to 3.5 inches of rain in an epic, isolated thunderstorm Saturday. 

Greensboro also picked up a little over two inches of rain Saturday. Some parts of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks also received some heavy downpours Sunday.

If especially heavy storms or several of them hit these wet areas in particular today, there could be some local flash floods. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a risk zone for some pockets of excessive rain and flash flooding today. 

The cold front driving these big thunderstorms has some chilly air behind it. You'll really notice it tomorrow. 

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will barely make it to 60 degrees while lows reach the upper 30s and low 40s midweek. 

So, the bottom line for today: You're at risk of seeing a good boomer any time after about 1 p.m. Anything before late afternoon will be basically appetizers, hit and miss. But some of those early storms might pack a punch, so take 'em seriously. 

The main show is toward evening.  I'll update this as warranted. Basically, if you see a storm coming or receive a severe thunderstorm warning, just get your butt into a sturdy building.