Memorial Day Weekend To Match Holiday's Weather Reputation

True to form, this Memorial Day weekend will re-introduce
us to summer. It will start rainy, and end sunny and warm.
If you do end up out on the lakes Sunday or Monday,
remember the water temperature is still quite cold
so be careful and don't fall in! 

Memorial Day weekend is regarded as the unofficial start of summer. Here in Vermont this year, it will also mark the re-start of summer 2022.  

The weekend will start out rather wet and not beach friendly.  After a few coolish days this week, the holiday weekend will end with a return of warm, humid weather. How warm it gets depends on the actions of a potential "wrong way" cold front. 

If you looked at the weather radar this morning, you'd think we're getting a soaking rain. However, we were seeing pretty much nothing more than sprinkles out there early this morning. Rain is falling into dry air, so it's mostly evaporating on the way down. The little disturbance causing this will move on this afternoon, and we'll end up with a partly sunny, windy afternoon.

Next up, we actually will get some rain.  We should hope we get a soaking, as this will probably be the last rain for awhile, as we seem to be getting ready to enter another multi-day dry spell. 

The bulk of the rain will come between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, as that's when the best moisture will be in place with the storm system coming in from the Midwest. Current expectations are we could see a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain from this. So nothing extreme. 

We could also see a few rumbles of thunder in spots and some locally heavy downpours, but again, nothing too scary.

One aspect of this mid-sized system that is a sign of summer is it's forward speed. It's sluggish. It'll linger most of the day Saturday, keeping us under risk of showers. Still, the afternoon and evening will begin to dry out a bit, at least in northwestern sections. 

That's still better than the Saturday of Memorial Day last year.  It actually snowed in the high elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont had clearer skies and a somewhat warmer afternoon than the south, but the north had scattered frost at night. 

No such worries this year 

Sunday at this point is looking nice, with sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 70s for highs. Humidity will be reasonable. Which is all good for the Vermont City Marathon in Burlington.  You don't want a lot of heat and humidity for the runners.

Not to worry, though, if you like summer weather, the final day of the Memorial Day weekend brings it on. By Monday afternoon, it will at least in the low 80s for most of us.  We've already had a couple spells of true summer weather this month, and it looks like we're about to get another one as May ends and June begins.

Next week looks like we'll have daily highs in the 80s with somewhat muggy nights and moderately humid afternoons.  Rain chances look low, too.

The only wild card is a possible back door cold front. It's called back door because most cold fronts come at us from the west or northwest.  This one, if it makes it, would come in from the northeast. 

If this "back door" cold front makes it, things will be slightly cooler than current forecasts, but still on the warm side for this time of year. Again, if this front makes it, the better chances of slightly cooler weather would be east of the Green Mountains.