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| Hurricane Ida on approach to Louisiana last year. NOAA is predicting yet another busy hurricane season for 2022. |
NOAA does this in percent chances. They tell us there's a 65 percent chance of a busy season, a 25 percent chance of near normal activity and only a 10 percent chance we'll have fewer than average tropical systems this year.
If this hurricane season is busier than usual, it will be the seventh such season in a row.
Like all hurricane forecasts, NOAA doesn't really get into how many of these storms will hit the U.S. coast. That's awfully hard to predict until you have an actual hurricane out there to track. But it's all a matter of chances.
The more tropical storms and hurricanes you have buzzing around out there, the greater the chance at least a couple of them would splash ashore in the United States.
Here are a few more details from NOAA:
"For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (wind of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3,4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these range s with a 70 percent confidence."
Reasons for the expected busy hurricane season include the following:
La Nina: A periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean is continuing this year. This tends to weaken upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. With these weaker winds, clusters of thunderstorms that want to be tropical storms stand less chance of getting blown apart before gaining momentum into an organized hurricane
Water Temperatures: Water temperatures in much of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are above normal. The warmer the water, the more fuel for wannabe tropical storms.
African Monsoon: Central and western Africa are subject to a series of wet storm systems during their seasonal monsoon in the summer and early autumn. These disturbances move off the west coast of Africa and can become hurricanes. This monsoon activity is forecast to be above normal this year.
Climate Change: The exact role climate change has with hurricanes is still being studied. But some indications are that the warmer ocean waters can contribute to more such storms. The warmer water might also enable hurricanes to form further north than in the past.
Or, hurricanes coming in from the south will be able to maintain their strength longer as they move over what used to be cold water, but is now warmer due to a changing climate.
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| Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem. They can cause catastrophic flooding well inland after their winds have died down. This is a Vermont house destroyed by Hurricane Irene's flooding in 2011. |
NOAA's hurricane forecast is consistent with other forecasts. The closely watched Colorado State University hurricane forecast, for instance calls for 19 named storms, against an average of 14.4 such storms each year.
The Colorado State University forecast also predicts four major hurricanes this year, in line with NOAA's estimate.
Keep in mind that if a hurricane smacks into a distant coastline, it can still be your problem. We saw a classic example of that last year after Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana. A few days later, its remnants unleashed catastrophic flooding in New York City, New Jersey and some surrounding areas.
Winds with hurricanes die out pretty quickly once they reach shore. The torrential rains can last a lot longer. Climate change gives that a boost because warmer air can hold more tropical moisture than cooler air. Which can make the remnant downpours from hurricanes that much worse.
Hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean starts June 1 and continues through November. You can see tropical storms outside that season, but they are relatively rare. At the moment, there's no signs of any tropical systems trying to form. Give it time, they will.
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