Storms Unexpectedly Avoided Vermont Sunday; Meanwhile Canada Deals With Sat. Derecho

Chaotic looking clouds, but no real storms over 
northern Vermont Sunday. Despite forecasts, there
was a lack of severe weather in Vermont Sunday.

 It really did seem like Vermont was primed for severe weather on Sunday. As we all know, that didn't happen. 

An interesting part of this is that the storms were expected to be most focused in northern Vermont.  Instead, most of the activity that formed was south and east of us in the Hudson Valley of New York, southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States.

Maine also experienced some activity. 

A map of storm reports from Sunday shows almost nothing in northern New England, where the bulk of damaging storms was forecast. 

I am puzzling a bit over the lack of storms, though I have some ideas. First of all, we should be happy there weren't severe storms, as who wants to deal with the damage and problems they cause?  But still, the forecast was wrong, and I'm sure local meteorologists are analyzing why. 

I have training in meteorology but am not a full-blown meteorologist, so I tend to defer to the experts.  One thing I noticed late Sunday morning and afternoon was that the clouds that were in the sky had a sort of "stable" look to them, like there wasn't anything triggering a lift.  It made me wonder a little if the predicted storms would develop. I guess my gut was right in this instance.

I didn't mention this in my updates to this here blog thingy Sunday, as I didn't want to contradict the messaging coming from real meteorologists. Adding my doubts to a volatile forecast would have been confusing to readers. And perhaps some people would have let their guard down if I expressed my doubts. Then, had severe storms developed, there was a chance that whoever read my posts might be unprepared. 

Anyway, the rest of the ingredients were there. It was quite humid, as we well know. A cold front was approaching, which would have created lift in the atmosphere, creating that severe weather risk.

The thinking was a line of storms would form just ahead of the cold front, with renegade strong storms out ahead of it.  

The blue and occasional green dots on this map indicate
reports of severe thunderstorms Sunday. Note that northern
Vermont and New Hampshire, which were considered
the most likely target for severe weather Sunday,
had no reports of damaging winds or big hail

That is precisely what tried to happen. I saw pop up showers on radar quickly form in Vermont, mostly along the west slopes of the Green Mountains and then race eastward. But they didn't grow into severe storms and sort of just petered out on their way toward the Connecticut River Valley. 

Strong winds aloft can make thunderstorms worse. But under certain conditions, the strong winds can rip the top off thunderstorms, stopping them in their tracks. I wonder if that was part of the problem with Sunday's situation.

Meanwhile, that expected line of storms sort of, kinda formed in New York and crossed into Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. But there was no lightning and the showers were wimpy.  The line of basically sprinkles did produce a gust front with winds of 30 to 35 mph.

You might have noticed it turned a bit hazy during that period of northwest wind gusts. That was sort of a pollen haboob.  The gust front blew tons of pollen from trees and other plants.  Allergy sufferers in northern Vermont must have had a rough Sunday evening. 

I think this line of wannabe storms didn't materialize into something strong because stable air was running out ahead of the actual cold front, which was right behind this little gust front thingy.

On the bright side, the forecast for the today and tomorrow is easy. Just nice. High clouds might dim the sun at times today, but it will be refreshingly cool and dry, with highs in the low 60s.

The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks are at risk for some frost tonight, but the vast majority of us will be fine, garden wise. Tomorrow looks nice, too, with highs a little warmer, approaching a near-normal 70 degrees or so.

CANADA DERECHO

We in Vermont really dodged a bullet Saturday. True, there were some severe storms around. However, a deadly derecho in southeastern Canada missed us by a mere 100 miles or so. 

The derecho, which swept across some of the most populated regions of southern Ontario and Quebec, killed at least 8 people and caused widespread damage.  At least a half million people lost electricity. The storms were so powerful that some large metal transmission towers toppled in the winds, which gusted as high as 85 mph.  

Trees bend in hurricane force winds in this screen grab
of the derecho in Ontario Saturday.

The derecho originated in Michigan and swept through the Toronto metropolitan area and then on to Ottawa.  It weakened somewhat by the time it reached Montreal and Quebec City, but was still powerful enough to cause damage there. 

As in many derechos, the damage was concentrated in some towns while others got off with relatively light damage. The town of Uxbridge, north of Toronto, and Clarence-Rockland, east of Ottawa, suffered considerable damage to buildings, to the point where a number of homes in those communities are too damaged to be occupied.  

It might take a week or more to get power back to everyone in the derecho zone. 

Videos. As always, if you don't see the image of the video on your screen, click the hyperlinks. : 

The derecho sweeps into downtown Ottawa:

The title of this video is "Ottawa Rain Storm"  You're telling me!