Could We Be Nearing The First Burst Of Summer Weather In Vermont?

Forecast weather map for next Tuesday shows
strong high pressure stalled in New England and
southeastern Canada, stalled low pressure near
Bermuda and storminess stuck in the middle of
the nation. It's a classic May weather pattern
that could bring summer-like conditions to 
Vermont during the second half of next week.

 An interesting weather pattern is looking like it wants to develop. 

If all goes just right, we could be in for our first real summer-like weather of the year.  If things go really off the rails with this set up, we could even see near record high temperatures in a little over a week.  

It's way too soon to tell if that will come to pass. But it's a classic May weather pattern that I've seen in hot Mays like 1975 and 1977, so you never know.

Here's how it will play out: The last good soaking rain will hit tonight before a pretty long dry spell sets in. This will be due to a weakening storm moving through. It's the same one that produced a few tornadoes in Oklahoma yesterday.

Though the storm will be weakening, it's got decent moisture and lift with it, which is why we'll be on the receiving end of these moderate rains.  Definitely no severe weather with this, though. 

Most of us will receive more than a  half inch of rain by noon tomorrow. It doesn't seem like it now, but we'll need the rain, since it looks like we will have very little or no precipitation for more than a week after that. 

Next, the weather pattern gets blocked up again. Everything gets stuck.  Like I said, it will evolve into a pattern that from my experience is unique to this time of year.  It happens every once in awhile in May, but I don't see it often at other times of the year

High pressure will nose down from Hudson Bay after that rainstorm passes by later Wednesday. It will be cool at first, Thursday through Saturday as, after all, the air is coming from Canada.

This high will deflect a storm that is expected to cause severe weather in the Midwest tomorrow off the southern New England coast, keeping us dry. 

Then everything  really stalls out. No more normal west to east flow of weather systems for awhile. The storm that  will have gone off the Mid-Atlantic coast will sit and spin near Bermuda or drift slowly southwestward toward the Bahamas for nearly a week, sending coolish air, for the season, into the southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. 

Meanwhile, that high pressure will drift around southeastern Canada and northern New England. The days are long now, so day by day, the strong May sun will heat the air in that high pressure system, so by Monday, we'll start seeing some highs in the 70s.

This high pressure might pull a little further east to off the southeastern Canadian coast later next week, opening the door for some very warm air to enter the picture from the southwest. Meanwhile, since the sun will be out day to day with no fresh cold fronts to rout the air, the sunshine will keep the airmass warming up over  us as well.

This stalled high pressure system will deflect storms coming into the middle of the country northward, toward the Great Lakes. This pattern could keep severe weather going in the middle of the nation for several days. 

Eventually this will all break down and we'll probably return to somewhat cooler, wetter weather.  Long range forecasts are tricky, so we don't know how warm it will get during the peak of this balmy spell, or exactly when it will end. I'm thinking it will get at least past 80 degrees during the second half of next week.

There's even a low, but not zero chance of the first 90 degree reading of the season, though I certainly wouldn't count on that. 

In any event, it is looking like the middle and last part of next week will be pretty toasty, so stay tuned!