UPDATE: Could Be A Really Interesting Afternoon/Evening In/Around Vermont

Interesting satellite image early this afternoon. That big
blob to the left are intense thunderstorms around Toronto.
There's some sort of boundary heading east across
northern New York. That COULD be a trigger for
storms in the next couple of hours, but a warm layer
aloft might squelch that. Storms are developing
in Quebec, a few of which might become tornadic
thunderstorms up there. Outflow from the Canadian
storms MIGHT help trigger strong storms here later today.

UPDATE 3 pm.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has indicated they will likely soon issue a severe thunderstorm watch for far northern New York, Vermont north of Route 2, northern New Hampshire and western Maine. 

That band of severe storms from Ontario could clip the region. Other storms were starting to fire up in Quebec and might sag south toward the International Border with time later this afternoon.

These storms, in they make it into our region, have the potential to cause really damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center says a tornado can't be ruled out. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 No promises, but things are shaping up to be potentially wild in parts of Vermont, especially north later today.   

They're certainly pretty wild in southern Canada.

As of 1 p.m. a cluster of intense thunderstorms was roaring through the Toronto metro area, packing winds of up to 85 mph. Lots of damage has been reported. It's racing east/northeastward toward Quebec.

I think this patch of storms will go by to our north, but outflow boundaries - the remnants of the storms' gusts fronts, could head south. These boundaries can act like mini cold fronts, acting as a trigger for abrupt, severe storms. 

Meanwhile, some forecasts are calling for supercells and tornadoes in southern Quebec and far western Maine today. These storms might also generate outflow boundaries, those little cold fronts, to help trigger more storms. 

Lots of things are in place for intense storms today. The main thing blocking the development of these storms is a layer of warm air aloft.  It's possible those outflow boundaries could be enough for wannabe thunderstorms to pop through that warm layer and really develop.

Also, lake breezes in the Great Lakes and even Lake Champlain could create enough of a disturbance to help trigger upward motion and storms. 

Skies really cleared up this morning, too, so the hot sun is helping to destabilize the atmosphere. 

There was a weird, narrow line of clouds in northern New York at 1 p.m. that also represents some sort of boundary. Things can get going ahead of that, but unlikely.

There's cumulus clouds out ahead of this line of clouds, but a patch of clear skies behind it. That patch of clear skies indicates sinking air. Sinking air hinders thunderstorms. So if that little line of clouds goes through Vermont uneventfully this afternoon that patch of sinking air could move in and MIGHT postpone storm development until late afternoon or evening. 

So yes, there's a lot of ifs, ands or buts with this afternoon's forecast. There's TONS of potential for some rocking, severe thunderstorms in and near Vermont later today. The only question is whether there will be enough of a trigger to actually launch them. 

If anything develops, the main threat still looks like it would be strong, damaging winds. Hail could be an issue to. Since we're in fairly close proximity to that "spin" the the atmosphere over Quebec, there's still a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado in northern Vermont - IF the storms actually erupt.

It's one of those days that might end up being super wild, or a big yawner.  Rare that we don't know what will happen just a couple, few hours before the event, but there you go.