Vermont Continues To Be Blessed By Great Late Summer Weather, But Rain Would Still Be Nice

A storm looms north of St. Albans, Vermont late yesterday
afternoon. Only a few places in far northern Vermont 
got some rain yesterday. 
Photo by Jeff Modereger.

As expected, any showers and storms pretty much stayed near the Canadian border yesterday and last night. 

One downpour just missed my house in St. Albans, Vermont during the late afternoon, which is too bad, because now I have to rig up the hoses to water the gardens. 

Especially since no rain is anticipated until Sunday, and that rain at this point does not look impressive. 

Other showers and isolated thunderstorms ran right along the Canadian border in New York and northwest Vermont late in the evening.  But again, most of us missed out.  On the bright side there was no severe weather. 

As always, let's get into the Vermont dailies

TODAY

We started out this morning with comfortable temperatures in the 50s, with the usual patches of early morning fog, especially in the river valleys. Otherwise, the mostly clear skies we're starting out with today will become more cloudy by afternoon. Mostly high clouds, especially north. 

The weather system that caused renewed flooding in Indiana and Ohio yesterday and last night is passing to our south, and that's what's throwing the clouds our way. There's a slight chance of light showers near the Massachusetts border this evening. But nothing major.

FRIDAY

Friday still looks like the pick of the week. After another comfortable dawn with those patchy areas of fog again, we'l have sunny skies, low humidity, with highs in the 70s to near 80. Can't get much better than that. 

SATURDAY

We continue the trend we've had this summer of nice Saturdays, at least in northern Vermont. More morning fog, then sunshine, highs again in the 75 to 82 degree range. Some clouds might increase in the afternoon.

Further south, the clouds will probably come in on Saturday sooner than in the north, and there could be some afternoon showers. So head north if you want the nicest weather. 

SUNDAY

There is a chance of showers, but Vermont might get cheated out on soaking rains. At this point, it looks like one storm will take some decent rains northward through western and central New York and into western Quebec.

Another little coastal low looks like it will bring another batch of heavy rain, or at least heavy-ish rain northward through the eastern half of New England. 

Vermont will be in the middle, with much less rain. There's still a chance things could rearrange themselves so that the rain comes down a little harder, a little more beneficial. 

It should be warm, with highs in the low 80s. It will also be a little warm humid.

MONDAY

Cooler, with a risk of remaining showers. Not sure how cool yet, but it could be another hint of autumn. 

Gorgeous Vermont Weather To Last Through The Weekend

Despite dry conditions, a rogue petunia emerges from a 
crack between asphalt and an old timber between my
driveway and front deck in St. Albans, Vermont. The
flower will see sunshine, but no rain through the weekend.

 It was another cool morning in Vermont with many spots down in the mid and upper 40s again so you should have had another good sleeping night. 

This launches us into yet another great summer weekend. We've had several good weather weekends this summer, so this is has been one of the better warm seasons we've had.

The next couple of days will feature very warm to borderline hot afternoons, with  pretty tame humidity. So, the beaches, hiking trails and cremee stands will be pretty busy for the next few days. 

Weather systems are moving slowly, so high pressure will be stuck nearly overhead all weekend. Hence the sunshine. 

The details: 

TODAY

The strong July sun will drive temperatures up to the low 80s. If you are counting today as part of your weekend, today will be the coolest day of the stretch. 

Much like yesterday, there's traces of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere over Vermont, but it's not nearly thick enough to be an issue. And what little there is is mostly aloft, so the Green Mountains still look mostly green. 

Since the humidity will be low, the atmosphere will release the day's heat, so we'll have another comfortable night. Most of us will start tomorrow in the 50s, with some 40s in the cold spots, and near 60 if you're close to Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Same as today, except somewhat warmer. Highs should get into the 80s statewide. Dew points, a rough measure of how humid it feels outside, will be in the 50s. That's a little higher than today, but still well within the comfortable range,

SUNDAY

Another wonderful summer day. The hottest towns could touch 90 degrees, though most places will stay in the mid and upper 80s. There might be a couple clouds in the afternoon, but the sun will be out most of the time. You might see a couple thundershowers pop up over the Adirondacks, but it looks doubtful any of those will make it over the lake into Vermont. 

NEXT WEEK

Remember how I mentioned above how weather systems are moving slowly?  We'll pay for that during the first half of next week. The particulars are still vague, but a weather front should move in, and slowly pass through.  That leaves us with some pretty high chances of showers or maybe thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. 

This isn't exactly bad news, because we need the rain. Especially after the dry weather that started yesterday. Some parts of the state haven't had any decent rains since July 9. Here in St. Albans, I've had only about a quarter inch of rain since July 9.

Another Nice Day Yields To An Iffy Today In Vermont Then Sweet Summer Weather To Return

A widespread severe weather outbreak is likely today in 
the Mid-Atlantic states. Vermont should be on the
edge of it, with just a marginal risk of strong storms. 

 Monday was another gorgeous day across Vermont. After a cool start, the day warmed into the low 80s. as expected. There was only a slight haze of wildfire smoke so air quality was OK. 

Today, we are going to largely escape a nasty severe weather outbreak in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Much like last Saturday, the severe weather is likely in western New York all the way down to Tennessee and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky have a high chance of severe storms and even scattered tornadoes. 

Up here in Vermont, much like this past Saturday, we'll be on the edge of it. The atmosphere is conspiring against much weather violence in the Green Mountain State. That said, there's a marginal, level one out of five alert level of severe storms in most of Vermont later today. 

Back on Saturday, we were in the same situation, with lots of severe storms to our south and west, and we were on the edge of it. The National Weather Service was predicting some risk of severe storms in Vermont, which never materialized as conditions remained cool, cloudy and smoky. 

Unlike last Saturday, there are a few breaks in the clouds today, and the smoke is much thinner than it was on Saturday, as noted. 

Last Saturday, temperatures hovered in the 60s most of the afternoon, which is usually too chilly to support severe weather.   

Today is warmer, as highs should reach well into the 70s to low 80s. Also, like on 'Saturday, it will get more and more humid as we go through the day.  So I think we have a decent shot at thunderstorms. But not a widespread severe event. 

Judging from satellite photos this morning, the old remnants of previous thunderstorms, now decayed, should arrive to cloud up Vermont's skies, limiting the instability in the air just when you need sunshine the most to power up thunderstorms 

There could be showers anytime today, but it looks like they will be pretty scattered until mid or late afternoon and into the evening, when the showers and storms should come through in earnest. Although there a decent area of rain did blossom in southern Vermont during the mid-morning. 

That's when we could see the risk of a few widely scattered strong to borderline severe storms, though I'd emphasize the majority of us won't see anything that dramatic. Some places might hardly see any kind of showers or storms, 

For those of you wanting a nice, soaking rain, this won't be the wettest summer storm system ever. On average, southern Vermont might see a half inch of rain, northwest Vermont a third of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom seeing less than a quarter inch. 

That's just broad brush. As is always the case with showers and storms, some towns will be big winners with over an inch of rain, while some other communities get sprinkles or light showers, It's impossible to tell in advance exactly who gets what in these situations. 

TOMORROW

We're not quite out of the shower and storm risk. The last of a series of weak weather fronts should cone through midday as a cold front. This should power up some scattered showers and storms.  The usual hit and miss routine. It looks like the timing of the front will be such that the storms will just be beginning to fire up in Vermont when peak afternoon instability begins to hit. 

For now, it looks like none of the storms will become severe until they reach New Hampshire and Maine, and southern New England. Even there, we see only a marginal, level one out of five risk for nasty storms there.

We should still see highs within a few degrees either side of 80 before the chillier air comes in. 

THURSDAY

Back to a hint of autumn, kinda, sort of. In any event, it should be a beautiful day. Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy, with rock bottom humidity with highs in the 70s. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another nice weekend! We've had a few of those this summer, which is definitely fortunate. Friday and Saturday will feature cool, calm mornings. Sunday morning will be a little warmer, but still comfortable. 

If the forecast holds, highs will be in the 80s, but trending a few degrees warmer each day, starting with low 80s Friday to upper 80s Sunday. 

A Dry And Warm Vermont Midweek, But Does Another Wet Weekend Loom?

These irises in St. Albans, Vermont are definitely 
enjoying this week's sunshine. 

 Boy, yesterday was another great June day, wasn't it? Sunny and warm, with just some high clouds decorating the skies. 

Tuesday did get off to a chilly start. A lot of places were in the 30s early Monday morning, so there might have been some frost in the coldest hollows of Vermont. 

No biggie, that happens the Green Mountain State often in early June. 

Today, we started off cool again, in the 40s. That was fading fast as temperatures soar to within a few degrees either side of 80 today. I think most valleys should reach at least 80 today os it's definitely warm. 

Thursday. 

Even warmers, as temperature soar well into the 80s. In fact, most of us will be within a few degrees of record highs for the date. For instance, Burlington is going for a high of 89 degrees, and the record high there is 92 degrees. Montpelier expects a high of 86 Thursday, and their record high is 87. 

But it won't be really humid, so it will still be a nice today. 

Friday. 

Similar to Thursday but maybe a degree or two cooler because some clouds should arrive in the afternoon. We should all be in the 80s. The humidity will creep up a little, but still be pretty reasonable. 

Weekend

It's the weekend, so the rule is, it has to rain. 

It's a few days away, so the specifics still have to be worked out. It does look like a slow moving cold front will sink southward into and eventually through Vermont. By Saturday, it could be pretty humid. It doesn't look like the atmosphere will be right for severe thunderstorms, but there could be some heavy downpours. 

By Sunday, it will probably be noticeably cooler under the showery clouds and behind the cold front. But "cooler" won't be the same as what we endured in our chilly May. Instead of 50s and low 60s for highs, we're tentatively looking at low to mid 70s. 

Remember, the forecast is subject to change. If you don't like rainy weekends, you never know. The weather could change it could turn sunnier. But right now, I'm not super optimistic.

The overall weather pattern is still a warm one, so I expect some more days in the 80s next week. 

 

Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

The Good Old Summertime Visits Vermont For A Few Days

An otherworldly view of Lake Champlain near 
Colchester Point, Vermont during sunset 
Saturday evening. 

Saturday was a winner, wasn't it? For a good part of the day we had bright sun, warm breezes, and the leaves on the trees were that perfect peak of new spring foliage in a million different, gleaming shades of green. 

Even when it clouded it up late in the day, it was still spectacular, at least where I was near Lake Champlain. 

The setting sun bouncing off clouds and scattered showers created weird but beautiful hues of deep, otherworldly blue, bright orange and a multitude of other bright and dark shades. 

TODAY

Now it's Sunday morning, and we're starting Part 2 of a beautiful weekend. A bit of haze early this morning gave the sky a baby blue hue, matching nicely with the fresh green of spring. 

We might have a few clouds here and there today but it's going to be gorgeous!

High temperatures will have quite a range across Vermont. Up in the Northeast Kingdom it'll probably hold in the 60s.  A few low 80s might well pop up in the warmer valleys south. 

Most of the rest of  Vermont should hold in the low to mid 70s, but cooler right near Lake Champlain. because of the chilly lake water. Which is where we get into the caution part of the forecast for the next few days. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement warning of the dangers of cold water. A lot of you will be tempted to jump into the water, kayak, paddle board, or get the sailboats out. 

But if you fall into the water, you're screwed. Lakes and rivers and ponds are still mighty cold. If you fall in, hypothermia sets in damn quickly.  As you quickly get cold, your arms and legs stop working right and you might not be able to swim your way out of trouble. 

Out on the broad areas of Lake Champlain, there should be some gusty northwest winds. Stronger south winds are due tomorrow and Tuesday.  The winds and waves could be enough to tip over kayaks and cause real trouble with other small boats. So you might want to hold off on those lake adventures for awhile. 

MONDAY

Another view of the sunset over Lake Champlain 
Saturday evening in the midst of a beautiful weekend. 

A warm front should blow through in the morning with clouds. There might even be a spot shower here and there, but it won't amount to much. 

The warm front will be up in Canada by afternoon, so we should clear up and turn warm.  Valleys across most of the state will reach the low 80s.  Many of those places, including in the Burlington area, will have their first 80 degree temperatures of the season. 

While all this niceness is going on in New England, the Plains and Midwest will endure a big outbreak of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, gorilla hail, along with dust and wildfires in some areas. We often complain, with justification, of annoying weather here in Vermont, but at least it's not scary. So count your lucky stars. 

TUESDAY

This will easily be the warmest day of the week. We'll get off to a warm start, as temperatures at the break of dawn will be in the 50s in much of Vermont, and the low 60s in the Champlain Valley. That's a pretty typical start to the day in July. 

The July theme will keep going as highs for most of us should reach the 80s. Also just like July, there's a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Forecasters are still struggling with how many clouds those storms will bring, how early in the afternoon the showers and storms will start, and how widespread they'll become. 

Those factors will determine how warm it gets. If there's lots of clouds and rain and showers, temperatures will hold near 80. If the sun lasts most of the day, some spots could flirt with 90.  Cloud and showers appear less likely in the southeast than in the northwest. 

With that in mind, for now at least,  the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a highs of 81 degrees in St. Albans, 85 in Burlington, 86 in Montpelier, 87 in Rutland and 90 in Springfield. 

Those wouldn't be record highs, as all time highs for Tuesday's date around Vermont are in the 90 to 92 degree range. 

But Tuesday will be hotter than we're accustomed to, and it will be turning more humid. You'll want to take it easy with the outdoor work and/or recreation. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still waiting on clarity as to when during Wednesday a cold front comes through. If it blows through in the morning, we just get a few showers followed by drier and eventually cooler air. If it's late in the day, we could see a couple strong thunderstorms in a few places. Stay tuned on that one. 

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Long range forecasts get dicey and are prone to change. But Thursday and Friday look relatively cool, but not weird or annoying for this time of year. Early guesses call for highs in the 60s.  Signs point toward maybe some rain later Friday or Saturday, but that's not a promise. The forecast will probably change quite a bit between now and then.  

We Got Through Our Cold Vermont Rainy Day, Coming Up: A Hard To Predict Cool Regime

After a chilly, rainy day with a low gray overcast dawn until'
evening. Here in St. Albans, though, the sun broke through
right at sunset, giving us a brief burst of bright light
to promise a return of nicer weather in the coming days. 

Yesterday worked out about as expected, with day long rains soaking the ground and getting trees and plants a boost to keep bursting out in spring green.  

Rainfall amounts were close to forecasts in most places. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland all had something close to an inch of rain. Bennington and Springfield had a little over a half inch, which was - again - in line with forecasts. 

Burlington was an exception. They only got a half inch or so of rain yesterday. Which means that long term record for most rain May 6, which is 0.85 in 1894 still stands.

Although surface winds were from the north, keeping Burlington's temperatures in the 40s all day, the moisture flow was from the southwest. I think the Adirondacks were blocking some of the moisture from the Champlain Valley. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Part of the answer to that question, What's Next, is, who knows? We have that dip in the jet stream that will keep us cooler than average on most, but maybe not all days over the next week to 10 days. 

Today and tomorrow look pretty straight forward. We'll have sun, with clouds mixing in, especially near the mountains. One minute the sun will be out, the next it won't, them it will reappear. The chances of showers are pretty low, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be good. 

Both today and tomorrow will be cool for the season, but at least it will be much warmer than yesterday.  Most of Vermont should reach into the 50s both days.

WEEKEND

Here's where we are a bit at a loss as to what will happen. The broad brush idea is pretty clear. A weak warm front will come through Saturday, bringing temperatures ever so slightly warmer to the upper 50s to near 60. 

It'll be even warmer Sunday. with highs in the 60s. That might seem pretty warm, but now we're so late into the spring that 60s is exactly normal. We also have chances of showers both days. 

Fine, but how many showers and how much rain will fall?  The weather systems circulating through the big dip in the jet stream parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast are kind of small and fast moving. And they're interacting with each other in a way that makes it hard to predict their exact path.

So figuring out where the best moisture will set up, where the showers will concentrate, when the showers will arrive and leave is hard to tell. 

Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, you might get away with it, but you are taking chances. I noticed meteorologists are trying to time out when the showers will hit and where the rain will come down the hardest. So far, it looks like most of the daylight hours on Sunday might stay dry, but that forecast could easily change. 

Actually, expect forecast changes from Saturday onward into next week.   The good news is that whatever happens, we won't have any extreme weather over the next several days. No scary thunderstorms. It'll be cool, with even a frost risk on some nights.  But no hard freezes. Also, no torrential rains  no floods. And no snow, aside from a slight risk of flakes at the tippy top of the mountains, maybe, 

Vermont Turns Wintry: Snow/Rain Today And Computers Still Arguing Over Weekend Storm

Snowfall amounts don't look huge for today's small 
storm, but a burst of heavy precipitation seems like
it might be timed just perfect to hit during
the afternoon commute 

 Things are taking a wintry turn again in Vermont, as we have two potentially wintry storms. One today, and the next maybe over the weekend. 

After a very weak system left a dusting of snow on much of northern Vermont yesterday, the next one is on our doorstep. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect for northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east, and in the Adirondacks and other parts of northern New York today through almost midnight tonight. 

Those areas should see two to four inches of snow in the valleys, and four to six inches at elevations above 2,000 feet.  

The Champlain Valley is the biggest wild card here. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY'S STORM

On paper, today's storm should be a nothing burger. It's a small, compact little thing coming in from the west. Usually, this type of storm are like last night's: They throw a few inconsequential rain drops and snow flakes at us and call it a day. 

Not this one.  It looks like it's finding some nice lift in the atmosphere. In general, the more vigorously air rises, the more precipitation you get. This little storm has also found some atmospheric moisture to work with. The result: A decent batch of rain and snow for us today.

If this were the middle of winter, all of us in Vermont would be getting somewhere between three and eight inches of snow out of this. But much of this storm is coming during the day in the second half of March. The sun angle is now higher and stronger. Despite the clouds, the sun's warmth will penetrate  those clouds will keep some areas too warm for much snow. 

This makes the forecast tricky. Since the temperatures will be so marginal, one slip of the thermometer will make a big difference. If it ends up a degree or two colder than expected where you are, congratulations, you'll be shoveling snow. If it's a degree or two warmer, it'll just be soggy out there. 

Southern Vermont looks like it will simply be too warm for snow.  Even the high elevations should get very little.

Northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain should be cold enough for mostly snow, though there's a good chance rain would mix in through the valleys. In these areas, your afternoon commute will probably be messy, especially away from valley floors. 

Which brings us to the Champlain Valley. Yes, it's warmer here. But like we've seen so often this year, it's a timing issue that causes just a little bit of snow or ice to become a big problem right during commuting hours. We can't catch a break. 

The heaviest rates of precipitation look like they might be in the mid to late afternoon. When precipitation is heavier, it brings down a little cold air. In this case, that might be enough to change rain to snow. 

And it would come down pretty hard, coating roads pretty quickly. So watch out if you have to drive in the Champlain Valley during the afternoon rush hour. Because chances are it will be the slush hour. The best chance of snowy or icy roads in the Champlain Valley are roughly from about Milton north to the Canadian border. 

This storm won't last long. Give or take, depending on where you are, the heaviest rain or snow should only last four or five hours this afternoon or very early evening east. 

After all that, Saturday should be nice with afternoon highs for most of us coming in within a few degrees either side of 40.  The sun will come out, too.

But then..... 

WEEKEND STORM 

I don't know what to think of the expected storm Sunday and Monday. 

At this time yesterday morning, the computer models suggested the center of the storm would go by a little to our north, and we'd get mostly rain. 

Last evening, some of the models had it going a smidge to Vermont's south, which would give many of us a substantial late March snowfall. 

This morning a few, but not all, indications had the storm going further to our south, which would mean perhaps northern Vermont would escape the worst of it. 

Don't bet on any of the above scenarios just yet. The models are still in disagreement over the ever-important storm track, so it's still a bit of a mystery how much rain and/or snow any particular location in Vermont gets out of this. 

Whatever happens to this will probably be similar to today in the higher elevations are more apt to get snow while valleys have a better chance of a cold rain. 

As I mentioned yesterday, we're now in a rather cool and unsettled weather pattern and I see no end to it until at least the beginning of April 

Friday Evening Update: A Little Extra Snow In Vermont Forecast, Especially South

National Weather Service has ticked up expected
amounts of snow late tonight through early Sunday
morning, especially in southern Vermont. 

Just want to post a quick Friday evening update to note an uptick in expected snow amounts late tonight and Saturday. 

Most of northern Vermont is still expecting just light snow showers and periods of light snow starting late tonight and going into tomorrow evening. 

Total amounts in the north have ticked up a bit, but will still be an inconsequential one to three inches in most spots. Of course the central and northern Green Mountains will see more than that. 

The problem is in southern Vermont. It turns out a fairly dynamic but somewhat moisture-starved system  might have a little bit more moisture than first thought.  

So, Rutland, Bennington and Windham counties are now under a winter weather advisory starting around midnight-ish tonight and going until tomorrow evening. 

Most places in this area can expect three to six inches of snow, except maybe closer to two inches in far northwestern Rutland County. 

Southern Vermont ski areas, which have looked longingly at the northern Green getting dumped on, really want to see some big snows. They won't get a blizzard, but the National Weather Service is going for four to eight inches in the Green Mountains from about Killington south. 

So, pretty good!

The snow will never come down all that hard, but maybe moderately at times in the mountains. 

Temperatures should get into the low 30s in southern Vermont valleys and Champlain Valley tomorrow, so the snow there will be kind of on the wet side. 

You might encounter some slippery road conditions anywhere in the Green Mountain State between the hours before dawn tomorrow and later Saturday night.  Captain Obvious tells me the worst roads will probably be in the southern Green Mountains, which will see the heaviest snow. 

A Vermont January Thaw Looking More Likely; Might Not Last Long, Though

Sunbeams break through the clouds over the Adirondacks
late Friday afternoon as cold weather continues. However,
a thaw is looking more and more likely late 
in the upcoming week. 

We continue slogging through our deep winter cold here in Vermont, either hunkering down indoors or embracing the icy outdoors, depending on your point of view. 

It's a routine we face every winter, though less so in our milder, climate changed environment. 

This winter is a bit of a throwback to what I guess we could consider he good old days when January weather was certainly noticeable. 

The cold we're experiencing now is pretty routine, nothing spectacular, nothing we don't see most winters. 

A little snow is falling this morning in many parts of Vermont, but it won't amount to much. There might be more periods of light snow and flurries off and on through Monday. 

It still looks like high temperatures will be in the teens today, tomorrow and Monday. Overnights will be fairly close to zero. Sunday night and early Monday morning will put most of Vermont in the 5 to 15 below range. 

Another tradition of a Vermont winter is a January thaw. I hinted a warmup might be in our future when I posted in this here blog thingy yesterday morning. Now, a thaw looks even more likely. 

Traditionally, January thaws come toward the end of the month, but of course they can happen at any time.  For winter sports enthusiasts, these thaws are a bummer, but at least this year, we won't have basically a month long January thaw, which has been the case in some recent years. 

Exactly how long the thaw will last and how "hot" it will get out there is still a question. Tuesday is looking warmer than recent days, but most of us probably won't get above freezing. It also looks like we might get some some snow Tuesday night. 

High temperatures will start to get above freezing on Wednesday. Thursday will be mild, too. Finally, a storm will come along Friday and Saturday, when the warmth will peak. Current forecasts have temperatures in the 40s on Friday. It's possible it could reach 50, but we're not sure yet. 

It looks like it'll rain with this storm, but we don't yet know how much or whether it will cause any flood problems. We'll know more once we get closer to that event. 

January thaws rarely last too long. It's beginning to look like it will start to turn colder again around Sunday, January 11. 

For what it's worth, NOAA's three to four week outlook indicates that the second half of January will be colder and drier than normal in New England. Long range forecasts like this aren't always accurate, but they do provide hints of what lies in our future. 

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Big Thump Of Rain/Mix/Ice Tonight, Big Northern Greens Snowstorm Sun. Night.

Vermont will still get a good thump of rain, freezing rain
ick and schmutz this evening, But this National
Weather Service snow forecast map hints at LOTS
of snow in the Green Mountains Sunday afternoon
through Monday. 

 Just a quick Saturday evening update on that messy storm that is on Vermont's doorstep.

Usually a storm that comes in from the west is pretty uneventful, but this one is super dynamic, so we have a pretty good thump of precipitation on the way. 

It's so dynamic that there's been a lot of thunder and lightning today in western New York and southeastern Ontario. 

After a pretty nice day for mid-November, and compared to what we've had lately, the bad weather will come in fast between 6 and 8 p.m., give or take. 

Whatever comes out of the sky tonight will come down pretty hard, mostly between about 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. The initial part of this storm is short but intense. Rain and melted ice will amount to about a half inch during those hours, so that's substantial for that short time a time frame. 

There's a slight chance you might even hear a rumble of thunder. 

There's still a winter weather advisory for Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County because some of this will come down as freezing rain.  Roads will get pretty slick. I'd consider abandoning plans to drive around central and eastern Vermont overnight. Or at least plan to take it slow and easy. 

As mentioned this morning the ice will be hit and miss on the roads. Some stretches in the advisory area will be just wet, while a little down the road it'll be glare ice. 

Even in the Champlain Valley, there might be some spots of snow initially and maybe a little sleet and freezing rain mixed in here and there, but it'll be mostly rain overnight. 

As the storm heads east Sunday, winds will really pick up from the west and northwest, gusting to 40 mph in places during the afternoon. Rain showers will turn to snow shower.s 

Most valleys won't have much in the way of rain and snow tomorrow 

However, the central and northern Green Mountains are gearing up for an epic snowstorm. More on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning. 

Thursday Morning Vermont Update: Cool, Rain South, Big Time Dry North

This morning's radar, shown at around 7:30 a.m. makes it
look like a lot of rain is falling. But most of it
in central and northern Vermont is evaporating
before it hits the ground, and that state of
affairs should continue all day. The yellow and
dark green in southern Vermont is rain steadily
falling and that should continue all day as well.

 If you looked at weather radar this morning, it seems like it's a really rainy Thursday in Vermont. It's not. 

Sure, a soggy weather system is approaching, but it will pass through our south. Very dry air is streaming in from Canada. 

That dry air is evaporating most of the rain that was trying to fall in central and northern Vermont.

The result will be a cloudy, cool day north, and a rainy day south. 

Not all the rain was evaporating north. Narrow ares of sprinkles were  making it to the ground, which is a bit of a surprise. 

So practically anyone in Vermont might see at least some raindrops here and there today. 

The only substantial rain, though, will hit along and south of Route 4. It looks like there will be a sharp gradient between light rain and heavier stuff. 

Near Rutland and White River Junction, the National Weather Service was calling for only a tenth of an inch of rain or so. (Though morning radar images suggested they might get a little more than that. 

Drive less than an hour or so south down Interstate 91 or Route 7 from Route 4, and soon you could really hit some soakers as you approach Bennington or Brattleboro. Places near the Massachusetts border, especially high elevations like Wilmington, Readsboro and Marlboro, could see up to an inch of rain.

Although we could have used a soaking rain, Vermont is lucky this storm is not going right over us. Those in its direct path - the Mid Atlantic States and areas as far north as Connecticut, are under flood watches today. 

New Jersey, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania - areas that have already dealt with a lot of flash flooding this summer -  are particularly in trouble today.     

We're talking inches of rain in many of those spots, Some pinpoint areas could see as much as five or six or even more inches of rain, which would cause catastrophic flooding in a highly populated part of the nation.

I guess our national Summer of Floods is continuing. Thankfully not here in Vermont, at least for the time being.

DRY VERMONT WEEKEND

Here in Vermont, after today, we're still expecting the longest dry spell since last September.  We also have an excellent chance of breaking the streak of 32 consecutive weekends with at least a little precipitation  - at least as measured in Burlington.   

National Weather Service rain forecast has nothing in
central and northern Vermont to near an inch near
the Massachusetts border. 

According to one chart from the National Weather Service,  the percent chance of rain this weekend in Burlington gets no higher than 2 percent.  

Those are pretty damn good odds of dry weather. (Though the way this year is going, I almost wouldn't be surprised if it rains from a clear blue sky).

The annoying humidity we've had for at least a week  has been finally be flushed out, too, and it's not coming back for several days at least. 

Which means we have a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend coming up. Lingering clouds in southern Vermont should start to clear Friday. Elsewhere, it's sunshine Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

I'd scheduled the hike and other physical activity on Friday and maybe Saturday as those days will be cooler.  Highs should be in the 70s both days, with a few low 80s Saturday in the warmer valleys. 

Then do the beach and boat day Sunday, as highs get right up there into the 80s. Despite Sunday's warmth, the humidity should stay low, which will make the days all the more pleasant. 

Low humidity also means temperatures tend to fall off quickly after sunset.  Saturday morning should be the coolest, with sunrise temporaries in the 40s for most of us. Warmer spots in the Champlain Valley would be in the low 50s. The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and New York's Adirondacks. could see some upper 30s.

The only negative I see in the weekend forecast is some wildfire smoke from Canada. It won't be as thick as it was last Saturday, which brought us some of the worst air pollution on record in Vermont. This time, the smoke might create some light haze, with air quality being so-so, and not particularly dangerous. We hope. 

NEXT RAIN?

Strong high pressure over northern New England and Quebec will be in no hurry to leave. That will keep us warm, with relatively low humidity until about midweek. 

There's mixed signals for the prospects for rain in the middle or end of next week. Some models keep high pressure strong over Quebec and just off the New England coast, which would deflect showers and thunderstorms away from us. 

Other models allow moisture to come up from the Mid-Atlantic states, which would allow a fair number of showers and thunderstorms to blossom toward Wednesday or Thursday. 

Either way, it doesn't look like any kind of real soaker. But that's a week away. Things could change. 

There are signs that the dry high pressure could eventually go offshore and merge with the famous summertime Bermuda High, which opens up a chance at another hot spell beginning in about a week. We're not sure yet, but the long range forecasts so far are leaning that way. 

Thursday Vermont Weather Update: Hot Today, Changeable Thereafter

A hazy start to the day, as seen in South Burlington
around 7:15 a.m looking toward the Adirondacks,
promises a hot humid day. 

The cool Vermont weather is over, for now, 

The humidity still wasn't that bad overnight, and temperatures were still reasonable, at least outside the Champlain Valley, where it never go below 70 degrees last night. 

Now, as the morning goes on, the humidity is creeping up, and the temperature is racing upward on steady south winds.   

Some mixing in the atmosphere due to those winds might make the humidity level off to kinda uncomfortable but not ridiculous levels this afternoon.  

Still with the humidity up and temperatures reaching 90 or more, a heat advisory has been issued for the Champlain Valley, because there, the heat index will make it feel like it's in the mid-90s The Hudson Valley of New York is also under a head advisory. Up in Quebec. a heat warning is up for Montreal and large areas surrounding the city.  

Actual temperatures will be close to that in the valley. Burlington's actual high temperature today is now forecast to be around 94 degrees. Plenty of other places in Vermont will be at or above 90.  Temperatures might come close to record highs in some places.  Montpelier in particular looks like they might break their record high, as the current record is only 89 degrees. 

Tonight, that humidity will really pool over and near Vermont ahead of a cold front.  If we're lucky, there might be a light show for people in far northern parts of the Green Mountain State. Depending on lingering instability there might be a decent amount of heat lighting visible looking up toward Quebec.

It's iffy, but maybe. If there are any Quebec storms tonight, they should stay north of the border until we get close to dawn. 

That potential lightning is our preview for Friday. 

FRIDAY

It looks like our cold front will come through near or before noon in the north, and in the early to mid afternoon north, which trims back our chances of severe storms.

The front will come through too early in the day for severe storms north, so the worst you can expect up there is some morning downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

There could be some isolated strong, damaging wind gusts with storms Friday in southern and eastern Vermont, but it doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem. The rest of southern and eastern New England might also have a few strong to severe storms 

There's not going to be a well defined cold front, so shower and even thunderstorm chances could last into the afternoon even in the north. But the afternoon in the north will be nicer than the morning. The opposite will be true south. Except the heat and humidity south will feel kinda nasty. 

WEEKEND

It's turning out we've got a bit of a rinse and repeat of last weekend, with gorgeous weather Saturday and Sunday, not so nice. 

Saturday looks sunny and warm, with moderate humidity. It should be a wonderful day for any kind of outdoor summer activity. 

Very much like this time last week, the forecast for Sunday has now shifted. 

At least as it stands now, what was once expected to be a minor disturbance causing the risk of widely scattered showers, mostly south, now looks a little more substantial statewide.  

There's still some debate as to whether Sunday's rain will be hit and miss and mostly light except for a few local downpours, or pretty widespread and on the heavier side. 

 Much like last Sunday, the cause will be a hard to forecast weak disturbance from the west interacting with a cold front to set off rte showers and storms,

However, unless something in the forecast changes substantially, it looks like we'll once again avoid the any real flash flooding, the kind that has causes so many problems in the U.S this summer.  

Unlike last Sunday, the cold front, such as it is, will be so weak that Monday will actually be warmer than Sunday. It fact, Monday at this point looks borderline hot. It won't be until later Tuesday or Wednesday before the big pattern change arrives to give us another big autumnal cool down. 

Weekend Vermont Forecast Has Gotten More Complicated, With Downpours, Severe Weather Threat Sunday

A perfect summer day Friday at Taylor Park in downtown
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for the rest of this
weekend has suddenly gotten more complicated. 

 This was supposed to be a nice weekend in here in Vermont.  A couple days ago, we thought there might be a couple light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's it. Otherwise, it would be mostly just sunshine and low humidity.  

Well, as everything goes these days, Ma Nature has thrown in a surprise. The weather forecast has suddenly gotten more complicated. And much wetter.  

Suddenly, our oversight tonight and Sunday will feature unexpectedly high humidity, the risk of severe storms in some areas and locally heavy downpours. 

This isn't going to be an end of the world type storm. Most places will just see rain and thunder. But we're now virtually guaranteed to break the record for the most consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Burlington needs at least a trace of rain by midnight Sunday to break that record. Current forecasts call for roughly a half inch of rain there late tonight and Sunday. 

TODAY  

Today is still going to be gorgeous Vermont summer day, with sunshine and low humidity and warm temperatures rising to the low 80s. I would rate today just a mini-step down from Friday, which I will regard as the most perfect summer day we've had this year.

Afternoon temperatures Friday were comfortably warm in the 70s.  The sky was a beautiful deep blue, without a hint of that annoying wildfire smoke we keep getting. That sky was decorated by puffy clouds. The hills and mountains gleamed their rich summer green at us, and a breeze kept the summer flowers dancing in the gardens.

Today will be pretty much the same, except it will be a touch warmer. And there might be some increasing clouds later in the afternoon and into the evening, but there's no worries about rain.

It'll be a perfect day to get outside and enjoy a Green Mountain summer. Especially since tomorrow is now looking problematic. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

An approaching cold front now appears likely to grab some higher humidity from the south. A conglomeration of weather disturbance will come in from the west at the same time, adding some lift and energy to the atmosphere. 

That's a recipe for rain and thunderstorms.  That there will be a complicated mix of very small bits and details in this system adds some questions to the forecast. It's unclear how extensive the rain and thunderstorms will become, but now we know it'll definitely rain. And many of us will hear thunder. 

 The first band of showers will come through after midnight to around or just after dawn.  Some of the rain could contain heavy downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

On Sunday, you'll notice a return of high humidity Sunday, at least for awhile, although actually temperatures won't get all that warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s south.

The door is open for possible severe storms in much of New England.

That severe risk will run from southern Vermont, along and south of Route 4, and on into the rest of southern New England, and most of  southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.   

Straight line winds and microbursts are the main threat.  As usual, only a few places in the risk zone would actually see a severe storm. Most places won't be so bad.

How many severe storms form depends a lot on how much sun comes out behind the initial band of storms early Sunday and how quickly a sharp cold front comes in from the northwest. 

Northern areas look to be too far removed from the best instability, so they should be safe from severe weather  Plus, a sharp cold front will hit northern areas first, putting an end to the rains by afternoon.  In fact, if northern Vermont is lucky, they could see a sharp drop in humidity and clearing skies by mid to late afternoon. It all depends on the timing of everything. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center also has a marginal, low level risk of flash flooding from this, but most meteorologists think we won't 'see enough rain to create trouble.  There will be some torrential downpours, but the storms will be moving along too fast to dump excessive amounts of rain in any one spot. 

A few places could see an inch or more of rain out of this,  but most of us will see something in the neighborhood of a half inch. Note that since the ingredients to this system are complicated, results may vary. We could still see another surprise or two out of this. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

This still looks like it's shaping up to be at least one of the coolest stretches of July weather we've seen in several years. 

You'll wake up to a cool Monday morning, then highs will only get to the low 70s at best in many locations. Some northern areas might not get out of the 60s. All that is a good ten degrees cooler than  normal for this time of year. 

Monday night will get into the 40s in many areas, but probably stay in the low 50s in warmer valleys. The cool high pressure system should stall briefly near us, keeping us sunny, dry and relatively cool on Tuesday. (Highs in the 70s)

We'll finally see a return southerly air flow starting Wednesday, so it should turn noticeably warmer and somewhat more humid for the end of the week.  At this point, it doesn't look like it'll get into the 90s again, but, as usual, no guarantees!  

Sunday Evening Update: Now 29 Consecutive Vermont Weekends With Precipitation. Record Could Be Tied Next Weekend

Radar image from 1p.m. Sunday shows some small
showers in the Champlain Valley, including one that
deposited just 0.01 inches of rain at the National
Weather Service office in South Burlington. 
That makes this the 29th weekend in a row
with at least some precipitation, The record
for the most consecutive such weekends is 30.

 Shortly after 1 p.m. today, a  dying shower passed over the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

The shower deposited just 0.01 inches of rain, so little you'd hardly notice it.  No biggie.

Except in one respect it was, 

Contrary to many weather forecasts ahead of the weekend, the streak of consecutive Vermont weekends with rain has not ended. 

As measured in Burlington, we now have had 29 consecutive weekends with at least a trace of precipitation. 

The record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow is 30,  from September 1 1934 to March 23, 1935.

On Friday, it looked like it this weekend would be a lock for no rain.  High pressure that brought us our generally sunny, comfortable Fourth of July would slowly slide off to the east, ensuring it would warm up but also keep any frontal systems with their showers at bay. 

That high pressure delivered on the predictions that Sunday would turn out partly sunny, hot and humid.  However, the high pressure was far enough south so that the subtlest disturbances in the atmosphere could work with the humidity to pop up some widely scattered shower and thunderstorms. 

Breezes off of Lake Champlain can sometimes trigger scattered showers and storms in humid weather. They create a sort of mini "cold front" at the boundary between the cool lake breeze and hotter inland air.

That appears to be what happened on the western shore of Lake Champlain before 1 p.m. Sunday. A few small downpours formed on the New York side of the pond, along the boundary between lake breezes and the hot and humid land. Prevailing winds then took these showers eastward across the lake. 

The showers weakened as the crossed the lake, having lost that boundary between cool and hot. But the one of them held together long enough to deposit that bit of rain at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  

After the shower departed, the sun came back out and temperatures rose above 90 degrees for the fifth time so far this summer. 

Before climate change, Burlington used to average about four or five 90s per summer, but in the past two or three decades, days of 90 degree heat have become more frequent.  

It's too soon to know whether it will rain next weekend to tie the record, and then rain again the following weekend to break it. Early indications suggest there might be some weather disturbances around next weekend that could create some more hit and miss showers. 

As always we shall see! 

Vermont Flash Flood Threat Much Lower Now With Forecast Updates

Newest National Weather Service forecast rainfall
map is much different than yesterday's. Instead of
two to three inches of expected rainfall along and
north of Route 2, roughly an inch is expected there.
Southern Vermont should get some rain, but
nothing extreme. Not shown on this map are the
isolated spots that will see much more in
local torrential downpours. 

This morning brings us one of those cases in which the weather forecast for Vermont has shifted dramatically over the past 24 hours. 

This time, in a good way.

Turns out the chances of flash flooding this weekend in Vermont have gone down quite a bit, though those chances have not entirely gone away. 

A slight shift north in the expected path of weather systems today through Saturday have created the big re-thinking of the weather forecast.  

Though the chances of anybody in the Green Mountain State seeing flash flooding Saturday have greatly diminished, those small chances are now statewide, not just in the north.

FORECAST CHANGES

We're still going to have a warm front lift up into our region today. Moisture won't really begin to invade Vermont with this thing until tonight, so it looks like we'll get through most of the day without any rain. Some showers might finally arrive this evening. 

The warm front should eventually make it pretty much all the way through Vermont before stalling in far southern Quebec. That's different from previous forecast, which suggested the front would struggle to make it that far north. 

We've known that disturbances riding west to east along and north of that warm front would set up a corresponding west to east band of heavy rain. Heavy enough to risk flash flooding. 

The target area for this area of particularly heavy rain had been far northern parts of  New York, Vermont and New Hampshire, along with southern Quebec.

Everything has shifted north with the forecast, so now that heavy rain band is almost exclusively a southern Quebec thing.  Vermont towns immediately adjacent to the border might get some good downpours with this late tonight and before dawn Saturday, but if they do they'll be on the outer edges of the torrents. 

Environment Canada has released a special weather statement alerting residents to the risk of some minor flooding in southern Quebec due to the expected heavy rain there. 

BUT THE DOWNPOURS.,,,

The shift north with this forecast changes the Saturday scenario for the entire state of Vermont. It's going to be a somewhat warmer, and much more humid day than originally forecast. That humidity sets the stage for some locally torrential rain with showers and thunderstorms.  

There could be just isolated instances of flash flooding anywhere in the state if one or two towns get nailed by a couple torrential storms. But the vast majority of us should be fine. Nowadays we're always on edge for a big flood, given recent experience. We're not in for it this time. 

It will rain pretty much everywhere in Vermont Saturday. But it won't rain all day, so you'll get some precipitation-free breaks thrown in. 

As is almost always the case in the summer, rainfall amounts will be highly variable. On average, expect maybe half inch of rain, except more near the Canadian border and in places that really get bullseyed by any Saturday thunderstorms. 

This will make it the 28th weekend in a row with at least a trace of precipitation. The record number of consecutive weekends with precipitation in Burlington is 30, so we're getting close. 

BEYOND SATURDAY

Recent weekends have featured one of the two days turning out pretty nice. Same is expected this weekend. Sunday will be a pretty typical pleasant Vermont summer day with partly sunny skies, moderate humidity and highs in the 75 to 82 degree range. 

Monday will probably give us a quick squirt of heat and humidity. Hotter valleys could get to 90 degrees, and the heat index will probably get into the 90s. This won't be as bad as early this week, but still noticeably uncomfortable.

That high humidity will probably lead to a bunch of shower and storms Monday night and Tuesday, but it's still too soon to figure out how much rain we'd get out of that. The early guess on the opening days of July suggests nothing outlandish, which is a good thing. 

Heat Is Gone From Vermont. Next, A New Flood Threat?

An early guess  from the National Weather Service as to
how much rain might fall between now and Sunday 
morning. Orange areas would receive two or  more
inches of rain. Note that this forecast will probably
change, perhaps by a lot, so for now take
it with a grain of salt.  

 The heat wave struggled to hang on in Vermont and the rest of New England Wednesday, but was overwhelmed by that cold front from Canada.  

It still got warm in northern Vermont, with highs reaching as high as 86 in Burlington. 

That's far better than the upper 90s of the previous few days, though. And the humidity really crashed. The dew point was an oppressive 70 degrees in Burlington at 7 a.m,. but was a refreshing 57 by 4 p.m. 

Southern and eastern Vermont held on to some of the heat for one more day, though at least it wasn't record breaking. 

Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the river from White River Junction, reached 94 degrees. It was 92 degrees in Springfield, Vermont Wednesday. 

Today, the heat is suppressed way down south, broiling places like the Mid-Atlantic States and places like West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.

But this "heat dome" isn't done with us. 

No, it's not going to see record heat again up here in Vermont from this thing again. But the heat dome is going to try to push north again. It might not really make it back into the Green Mountain State again. But it'll work in concert with the usual weather disturbances that ride along the northern edge of these things to give Vermont - sigh - a potential flash flood threat.

It's not as if Vermont needs another flood after what we've been through in recent years. But here we go again. Maybe.  The good news is that so far, even if Vermont sees any flooding Saturday, it shouldn't be catastrophic like we saw in the Julys of 2023 and 2024.

We might not end up having any trouble at all.   But the potential is there.  

FLOOD RISK EXPLAINED

 Leading up to the heavier rain that might come in later Friday and Saturday, it look like the weather will get increasingly unsettled, just little hints of what might - or might not be to come. (I'll explain why I'm hedging here in just a bit).

Dying disturbances coming in from the west should cloud us up by this afternoon and spread light showers across much of Vermont. Nothing dangerous here. Just enough to wet the ground a bit.

We'll still be at risk of lighter showers tonight and most of Friday. 

The potential trouble starts Friday night into Saturday.  

As that "heat dome" pushes north a little bit, it''sl shove a warm front toward Vermont. That will vastly increase atmospheric moisture over us. It will also enhance upper level winds over southern Quebec, which tend to add lift to the atmosphere, which encourages heavy rain. 

The contrast between the cooler air to the north and hot, humid air to the south will also sharpen up. All these factors would create what will be a relatively narrow west to east streak of occasionally torrential rains somewhere.  Most like either in southern Quebec and/or across northern New York, northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire.

As of this morning, meteorologists seemed pretty confident about the overall weather setup Friday night and Saturday, but less sure about the precise location of the heavy rain.

Maybe it will stay in southern Quebec, sparing us in Vermont any trouble. Or, it could really hit areas north of Route 2, setting up a potential risk of flash flooding.

Since we Vermonters all have flood PTSD, I'll note again that even if the heaviest rain hits Vermont - fingers majorly crossed - it doesn't look like it would be a catastrophic flood. But still potentially troublesome. And of course all the meteorologists and experts will keep a close eye on this so we don't get any surprises. 

Early guesses are the steep terrain of the northern Green Mountains is the most likely problem spot. Especially up near Jay Peak and surrounding communities.  If torrential rain develops, runoff would cascade down those steep slopes, causing those risky flash floods.

The first rainfall estimates I've seen suggest up to four inches up near Jay Peak, and between two and 2.5 inches in the northern Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom, with locally higher amounts.

The far northern Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire are also at risk of flooding, as noted by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. 

Take that with a grain of salt for now. Depending on how this sets up, actual amounts could be much less, or a little more than forecasts are now suggesting. Again, it all depends on where that band of heaviest rain would set up. 

The National Weather Service is toying with the idea of maybe issuing a flood watch for northern Vermont. As of this morning, they were holding off for now because the rainfall forecast is still so questionable. 

I'm pretty relaxed central and southern Vermont.  I suppose there could be a surprise, but all signs point to rain south of Route 2, but nothing scary.   

Those rains should start to taper off later Saturday. It looks like it might turn briefly pretty warm and humid toward the beginning of next week, but it won't be anything as torrid as we had a few days ago. 

More showers and storms also seem likely Monday night and Tuesday, but it's too soon to tell how widespread those might be.  

Vermont Weekend Rain Streak Lives On, But Weather Will Be Decent. Meanwhile, Baked, Weird Alaska

The sky over St. Albans, Vermont around 7 a.m. tells the
weekend weather story. The darker clouds on the left
are toward the south, the blue skies are to the north.
Those blue skies will spend today fighting their 
way southward across the most of the 
Green Mountain State today. 

The long streak of consecutive weekends with rain or snow lives on in Vermont! This is now officially the 26th consecutive weekend with precipitation in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Um, yay?  

A period of light rain early this morning in Burlington deposited just 0.05 inches of rain.  That's actually a tiny bit more than the trace Burlington had last weekend. 

Up here in St. Albans we had just a few raindrops around 6 a.m.today. Not even really enough to make the driveway look wet.

But don't worry, this will still be the nicest weather weekend Vermont has seen in ages. Even if conditions aren't perfect. 

First of all, it was such a relief on Friday to look over at the Green Mountains and they looked......green.

The main thing was you could actually see them, as the wildfire smoke that has been plaguing our area finally got flushed out by clean northerly winds yesterday. There was so little haze left that you could clearly see the lush greenness of our hills and forests in all their summer glory. 

FORECAST

The great news is we're getting the rain out of the way early and we can go on with the weekend. Hell, most people were still sleeping when it rained around here early today, so it doesn't matter. 

Overcast skies will slowly clear north to south today.  Blue sky was already starting to show up over St. Albans as of 7 a.m.

The north should have a pleasant, largely sunny day. It'll take longer for the clouds to clear in the south. If you're down around Brattleboro or places like that, it could take most or all of the day before you get some sun. 

It'll be cool for the season today, with highs only in the low 70s under the sun north and 60s under the clouds south. 

Tomorrow (Sunday) still looks pretty damn good, too. Not perfect, but good. It'll be partly sunny once again, with more clouds predominating in the south again. It'll stay cool with highs only in the low 70s.

There's a very slight chance of a shower Sunday.  But if you do get unlucky enough to see rain on Sunday it would probably amount to just a some sprinkles that last a few minutes.  

It still looks like it will get warmer and more humid as we go through the upcoming week. The ever-present risk of showers and storms will be there, mostly in the muggy air Wednesday and Thursday, 

Over this weekend, you might see just barely some hints of smoke from time to time in the atmosphere over Vermont this weekend, but it will be much, much better than it's been. Air quality here in Vermont will be fine.

For now, winds are taking much of Canadian wildfire smoke northwestward toward Alaska. 

AN ALASKAN EXCURSION

As an aside, things have gotten strange up in Alaska. On top of the smoke, we now have a baked Alaska situation, if you will. A first-ever heat advisory is in effect for tomorrow and Monday for a big stretch of central and eastern Alaska. Temperatures will be between 85 and 90 degrees, which isn't that bad by our standards but torrid for Alaska. 

Fairbanks, Alaska is forecasting high temperatures in the 80s daily through at least Friday. Normal highs there this time of year are in the upper 60s.

Meanwhile, much of far northern Alaska is under a flood watch. The snow pack up until now on Alaska's North Slope has been unusually deep and thick  and persistent for this late in the season. The big warm spell now moving into Alaska will rapidly melt this snow to cause flooding. There's still actually ice on the rivers up there, too, so ice jam flooding would also be a problem. 

So, complain all you want about Vermont's stretch of rainy weekends. At least we got rid of our ice jam and snow melt flood issues way back in mid-March.