A Vermont January Thaw Looking More Likely; Might Not Last Long, Though

Sunbeams break through the clouds over the Adirondacks
late Friday afternoon as cold weather continues. However,
a thaw is looking more and more likely late 
in the upcoming week. 

We continue slogging through our deep winter cold here in Vermont, either hunkering down indoors or embracing the icy outdoors, depending on your point of view. 

It's a routine we face every winter, though less so in our milder, climate changed environment. 

This winter is a bit of a throwback to what I guess we could consider he good old days when January weather was certainly noticeable. 

The cold we're experiencing now is pretty routine, nothing spectacular, nothing we don't see most winters. 

A little snow is falling this morning in many parts of Vermont, but it won't amount to much. There might be more periods of light snow and flurries off and on through Monday. 

It still looks like high temperatures will be in the teens today, tomorrow and Monday. Overnights will be fairly close to zero. Sunday night and early Monday morning will put most of Vermont in the 5 to 15 below range. 

Another tradition of a Vermont winter is a January thaw. I hinted a warmup might be in our future when I posted in this here blog thingy yesterday morning. Now, a thaw looks even more likely. 

Traditionally, January thaws come toward the end of the month, but of course they can happen at any time.  For winter sports enthusiasts, these thaws are a bummer, but at least this year, we won't have basically a month long January thaw, which has been the case in some recent years. 

Exactly how long the thaw will last and how "hot" it will get out there is still a question. Tuesday is looking warmer than recent days, but most of us probably won't get above freezing. It also looks like we might get some some snow Tuesday night. 

High temperatures will start to get above freezing on Wednesday. Thursday will be mild, too. Finally, a storm will come along Friday and Saturday, when the warmth will peak. Current forecasts have temperatures in the 40s on Friday. It's possible it could reach 50, but we're not sure yet. 

It looks like it'll rain with this storm, but we don't yet know how much or whether it will cause any flood problems. We'll know more once we get closer to that event. 

January thaws rarely last too long. It's beginning to look like it will start to turn colder again around Sunday, January 11. 

For what it's worth, NOAA's three to four week outlook indicates that the second half of January will be colder and drier than normal in New England. Long range forecasts like this aren't always accurate, but they do provide hints of what lies in our future.