Huge U.S. Winter Storm Has Begun, And Will Worsen. Here In Vermont, Cold, With Maybe Foot Of Snow

All that pink on the National Weather Service web page
is winer storm warnings. It's one of the largest winter
storm warning areas I've ever seen. The purple in
parts of the south is ice storm warnings. 

The big national. winter storm is now underway, and it will continue to worsen as we go through tonight, tomorrow and Sunday. 

In some places, the storm could be the worst in years, or even decades.

First, we'll take a look at a stormy nation, and down below, you'll see our Vermont-specific update. 

DEVELOPING STORM

As of Friday afternoon, precipitation was blossoming over New Mexico and Texas and it was starting to head north and east. 

The mid-afternoon precipitation was mostly rain in Texas, but that was about to change. Subfreezing air had reached the border between Oklahoma and Texas north of Dallas. It was already in the teens in the Texas Panhandle. 

Sleet and freezing rain had already begun in areas around Lubbock, Texas.

As the precipitation keeps moving north and east and expanding, the cold air is pushing into this growing mass of rain. The die is cast. The massive winters storm has begun. It will continue to harass millions upon millions of Americans between now and Monday. 

Grocery store shelves are now empty or close to it from Texas to New England, as people heed warnings to stock up ahead of the storm. Fox Weather posted on X views of an Oxford, Mississippi grocery store that practically had nothing left. 

Don't expect to travel anywhere this weekend. As of 3;45 p.m. eastern time, more than 2,415 flights in the United States had been cancelled, and that number was rising rapidly, according to FlightAware.  Nearly 1,450 Sunday flights had already been canceled by this afternoon. 

ICE STORM

The scariest part or this storm is the freezing rain. There's vast amounts of it in the forecast and this icy precipitation will freeze an enormous area.

As of Friday afternoon, ice storm warnings covered parts  of eastern Texas; northern and central Louisiana; roughly the northwestern half of Mississippi; southwest and eastern Tennessee; northeastern Georgia, the western half of South Carolina and western and southern North Carolina. 

Most of these areas can expect at least a half inch of ice accumulation. A half inch is where trees, branches and power lines really start to break. Many places under the ice storm warning can expect three quarters of an inch or more. 

The ice storm warning in parts of South Carolina is the first one they've had in two decades. 

As meteorologist Matthew Cappucci noted on X, meteorologists are already calling for up to 1.25 inches of ice accumulation in northwest Mississippi, which is an incredibly rare forecast. He said tree damage would be equivalent to Category 1 or 2 strength hurricane.

Besides the power outages, many roads will be blocked by both fallen trees and ice. 

The power outages are going to be stupendous. All those people in heatless homes for days in subfreezing temperatures worry me.  Especially people who might need emergency medical help.

Areas north of the ice storm warnings are not off the hook. A wide band north of the ice storm warnings will have a horrible mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Forecasts for mixed precipitation have been trending north, especially along the East Coast.  

Sleet could mix in as far north as New York City. Even with the sleet, the New York metro area could see 12 to 18 inches of snow. 

The Washington Post put together this snow
accumulation map. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to see. 

Further north, along a broad path rom Oklahoma to New England, it'll entirely snow or almost al snow, with accumulations in many spots closing in on a foot. In some places more than that.  

It's indisputably horrifically frigid in the Upper Midwest with widespread temperatures in the 20s below. But that's not historically cold. Record lows are generally not being set in that region.

However, the storm will yank that cold air southward behind it, so record lows are expected in the southern Plains and perhaps some of the Gulf Coast States toward Monday and Tuesday. 

For instance, as the Washington Post tells us the forecast low in Dallas Monday is 7, and the record low that day is 12 above. Tulsa, Oklahoma is expecting a low of 6 below, which would obliterate the previous record low of 7 above in 1963

Brownsville, on the southern tip of Texas could get to 31 degree Monday, which would edge out the previous record low of 32 degrees.

As always, Donald Trump added his "wisdom" to this winter event. He posted this on social media: "Record Cold Wave expected to hit 40 States. Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain - WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???"

I'm not sure how many people familiar with climate science are "insurrectionists" but the explanation for this huge storm is called "winter."

Happens every year. Despite climate change, winter still happens, and you can still get extreme weather. Things like this just doesn't happen as often as it used to. That's partly why everybody is freaked out. 

There's record warmth currently in Greenland, Indonesia, northeast Africa and Madagascar. I guess we'll ignore those places. Moving on....

VERMONT EFFECTS

There's' some shifts in Vermont forecast since this morning, which I'm by no means surprised by.  

First of all, the main cold front introducing the Arctic air was just passing through Vermont as of late this afternoon.   It was getting gradually, noticeably colder this afternoon. This is not a well-defined cold front at all. The slide toward below zero weather is now accelerating as darkness falls.   

Wind chills were already in the single numbers and teens below zero as of 5 p.m. 

The National Weather Service's first crack at 
prediction snow amounts Sunday and Monday. 
This could change, but for now they have near
5 inch close to the Canadian border and a foot
near the Massachusetts border. 

We haven't had much in the way of snow squalls yet today, which is a slight surprise. It's still possible we might have a few heavier snow showers here and there this evening. 

It won't be widespread, but keep an eye out for any surprises on the drive home this evening. 

The extreme cold warning is still in effect overnight and the first half of Saturday. 

We're still looking at lows in the upper single numbers to mid teens below zero by Saturday morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph, so those wind chills will be brutal.

Lighter winds arrive during the day tomorrow. But with highs near 0, it won't exactly feel balmy.

The Storm

The big change this afternoon is that the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for all of Vermont roughly south of Route 2. Meteorologists are pretty certain those areas will see a pretty good dump of snow from Sunday afternoon into Monday. For now, the National Weather Service is going with 9 to 16 inches of snow in the warning area.

Northern Vermont is still just under a winter storm watch because it's still a little unclear how much deep moisture will make it to the Canadian border. And if does get there, how long will it last. 

Usually, a winter storm warning is issued if they're expecting six inches or more of snow. A winter weather advisory goes out if it's going to be a little less than that. I'm sure one or the other will be in effect in northern Vermont by tomorrow.

Early guesses call for five or six inches of snow from this in far northern Vermont.

I will note that the National Weather Service forecast is a little conservative compared to some other forecasts I've seen.  Some New England meteorologists are advertising 8 to 12 inches in northern Vermont and 10 to 18 inches south. 

Everybody should note that the snowfall predictions will be adjust up or down here and there between now and Sunday. 

It's looking like the snow will start during the afternoon Sunday and reach its peak overnight Sunday into early Monday morning.  It'll continue probably through at least a good part of Monday. But it should e a pretty light snow by Monday afternoon. 

It's still looking like an oddly cold storm, so it will be more challenging to dress for it if you need to be out in it, or shoveling. If you have to drive through it, pack extra warm clothing, blankets and snacks, since it's going to be so cold.

It also will stay cold all of next week. And probably beyond. It's still super unclear if this storm will be a one-off for us or if something else will come along. The next nor'easter in the pipeline is next Friday, but it looks like it will pass by way too far offshore to give us anything interesting in the Green Mountain State.