What a mess.
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| Just the beginning. Freezing rain beginning to weigh down this tree in central Texas early today. By this evening, we should start to see widespread tree damage and power outages due to the ice storm in the south. At least half the people in the U.S. are now under a winter storm warning |
As expected, rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is falling across a huge area of the central and southern U.S. and the problems have only just begun.
As usual, I'll have Vermont specifics below, but first. the national update. Spoiler: We're getting a big storm here in the Green Mountain State, but we're a luckier than a lot of people.
At least half of the nation's 343 million or so people will be affected by this storm. I'm not sure, but I think the area of the United States under a winter storm warning is the largest I've seen since 2011.
And for some people this will be the worst storm in at least that long.
\The first power outages from freezing rain, snow and wind were already starting to crop up early this morning. As of 9 a.m. eastern time, nearly 36,000 people had no power in Texas. More than 4,700 people in Arkansas and 3,000 people Oklahoma were in the dark.
The number of outages across southern and central parts of the U.S. will no doubt rise exponentially today.
Traveling is a nightmare, or soon will be in huge swaths of the nation. Airlines are scrambling. As of 7:30 a.m. today, Flight Aware tells us there were 3,568 canceled flights today in the U.S. It's worse tomorrow, with more than 6,100 flights canceled. These numbers will probably rise further.
A wide stripe of heavy snow will end up extending 1,500 miles or more, from Oklahoma to New England and on into southeast Canada.
To make matters worse, some states, most notably Michigan and Vermont, are facing road salt shortages as the storm approaches.
If there's a bright side, it's this storm won't be as bad as the Texas deep freeze, winter storm and electrical grid collapse in 2021 that killed nearly 250 people. And despite some sensational social media posts I've seen, it won't be as bad as the Storm of the Century in 1993.
Still, it's bad enough. I unfortunately predict it will cause at least a few tragic deaths and perhaps cause $1 billion or more in damage before it's over.
VERMONT COLD, STORM
Just as planned, it's annoying cold out there today. We've started the day with temperatures in the single number and teens below zero, and wind chills in the minus 20s. Henry the Weather Dog was extremely quick and efficient with his first morning trip outdoors this morning. The poor little guy ran full steam to the door when he was ready to come in. I had the same mindset.
High temperatures, if you can call them that, should get up to near or a little below zero for most of us. The banana belt in the lower Connecticut Valley might get all the way up to five or eight above. At least the sun will be out, so, um, yay?
Increasing clouds from the approaching storm will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out tonight. But it will be below zero for sure. The Northeast Kingdom, which is normally colder anyway, will be the last to see the clouds. That means it could flirt with 20 below overnight in some spots up thee.
Nine extreme cold shelters are open throughout the state this weekend to homeless people who would otherwise be exposed to the dangerous wind chill outdoors.
You're going to want to dress for today's weather, obviously. The elderly and children are at most risk from getting in trouble with the frigid weather, so really keep an eye on them.
The Storm
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| Forecast snow amounts for the upcoming storm have increased, especially in northern Vermont. Almost everybody should see at least 10 inches of snow A few places in southern Vermont could get close to 20 inches. Good news is this will be powdery snow with no ice mixed in. |
The answer is pretty greatly.
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has boosted expected snow totals since their forecasts yesterday. Especially in northern Vermont.
Statewide, total accumulation from this storm are now expected to range from eight to 17 inches. Some spots in central and southern Green Mountains could close in on 20 inches.
If the current forecasts hold, places north of Route 2 would get a little less than a foot of snow. Central Vermont, including Burlington, Montpelier and Rutland would get about a foot or a little more than that. Places like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield would see maybe 15 inches.
To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning in northern Vermont. And the winter storm warning in the rest of the state is still in effect.
The snow should start in the early Sunday afternoon south of Route 4, mid-afternoon in central Vermont, and late afternoon north of Route 2.
The snow will need to overcome dry air before it reaches the ground. You'll be able to see that process tomorrow. Watch the mountains. The tops of them will look blurry at first as it starts to snow at the summits. But mid slopes and valleys will be clear as the snow evaporates on the way down in the dry air.
Gradually, the blur on top of the mountains will get lower in elevation as the air moistens. Finally, it[ll start snowing in the valleys.
The overall forecast for the path of the storm hasn't changed since last night. The changes to the forecast in northern Vermont reflect more confidence that the good moisture from the storm will get that far north. Heck, even Montreal is expecting six inches of snow out of this.
Usually this type of storm has bands of heavier snowfall that increase the accumulation in a few spots. That'll probably happen this time. But it's always almost impossible to know where these bands will set up ahead of time.
The Storm's Effects
We in Vermont are a lot luckier than most other places in the path of this storm. Firstly, ski resorts, cross country centers, back country skiers and other snow lovers in Vermont are not exactly upset by this weather forecast. It might as well be tourism dollars floating down from the sky during this storm.
Also, unlike so much of the U.S. in this storm, we will not get any sleet or freezing rain.
This will also be a light and fluffy snow. Ten inches of snow in an average snowstorm would yield about an inch of water. With this storm, the snow will be so fluffy that you'd need at least 20 inches of snow to get an inch of water.
If this storm were rain, we'd only get a half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation.
All this means is we won't have any problems with trees falling and power lines snapping. It'll be easier to shovel than those wet "heart attack" snows we've gotten in many snowstorms in recent years.
There's a caveat to that, of course. This is still going to be an oddly cold storm, with temperatures mostly staying in the single numbers and teens. Shoveling snow in very cold air can increase the risk of heart attacks.
The powdery snow will make traveling tough, especially on highways like Interstates 89 and 91. A passing semi will create a thick cloud of snow so that you won't be able to see anything around you.
Even regular cars stir up enough snow to blank out your view. Also, this type of snow is deceptive. It will look like you're on dry pavement because the snow has blown off the road. But car tires will have compacted a little bit of that snow into black ice. That "dry pavement" could be a skating rink.
The heaviest snow will come down Sunday night and early Monday. The drive to work Monday morning will be, well, interesting, I guess with all that snow. Try to work from home if you can. I'm guessing quite a few schools will be closed.
The snow will turn lighter during the day Monday but probably continue at least until evening in most areas.
You know how, in our recent warm winters we'd finally get a big snowstorm, but a thaw would arrive within a couple days to melt a lot of it away? That's not happening this time.
The weather pattern doesn't seem to favor a lot more additional snow after this storm goes by. But the snow we'll have on the ground is absolutely staying put for quite awhile. At this point, I see no signs of a thaw at least through the second week in February.
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